Exploring NFL Betting Trends Before Super Bowl LIX

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00:00That's right, never too early to get started.

00:02We're now just 12 days away from the championship game and listen, I'm a Buffalo Bill fan as

00:09everybody knows, so I'm going to be the last one to like try to cheer everybody up.

00:14People should be trying to cheer me up right now, but it is a good game, Scott.

00:19It is a good game.

00:21I'm not going to dispute like, you know what I mean?

00:24It's frustrating that it's the Kansas City Chiefs again.

00:26I get it.

00:27People don't like them, but they're a great team.

00:28They're going for something.

00:29It's never been done in NFL history before.

00:33And you got the Philadelphia Eagles that are arguably the best team on paper in the National

00:36Football League, right?

00:37So it is a great game, we'll let you say that.

00:40And it was a great game when I played a couple of years ago, it was 38-35, but a couple of

00:44early trends guys to note, pretty wild.

00:48I tweeted this out last night, the team with the worst record, Scott.

00:52So the team that won less games in a regular season is actually 19-2-1 against the spread

00:59in the last 22 Super Bowls.

01:0119 covers for the team that had the worst regular season record against the team in

01:08the Super Bowl.

01:09And I know it's deceptive because the Eagles are like 14-3, but the Chiefs were 15-2.

01:15So the Chiefs actually have the better record in this game.

01:20Favorites have struggled, and this is an interesting one as well.

01:23It's not wildcard teams, because wildcard teams have a problem because they're playing

01:26on the road.

01:28Teams that played in the wildcard round, 15 times, 13-1-1 against the spread.

01:34Teams that played in the wildcard round and made it to the Super Bowl.

01:37So and listen, you know, it's like political polls, Scott.

01:41Politicians can pick and cherry pick what polls they like and don't like, and you can

01:44do the same thing.

01:45So Philly played in the wildcard round, so you're telling me they'd be the 13-1-1 and

01:49they would be the first trend of 19 out of 22 Super Bowls they covered the spread.

01:56They have all these trends.

01:57They have the lower regular season record that's 19-2-1 against the spread.

02:03Favorites have struggled as well.

02:05Favorites have only covered nine times in the last 22 Super Bowls.

02:09It's like 9-18-1, actually.

02:13It's like favorites have been on a bad run.

02:14Thing is, it's not much of a point spread in this game.

02:17So when we talk about favorites and point spreads, KC generally just needs to win the

02:21game.

02:22The team that gives up less points kind of sounds simple, right?

02:28But the team that gives up less points in a regular season also wins the Super Bowl

02:34like 87% of the time, for the record, as good as the chief defense is, the Eagles give up

02:38less points.

02:39So just, you know, we'll have trends daily here.

02:42I got an early for the hardcores, too.

02:44Somebody asked me about the coin toss.

02:46I didn't play around.

02:47Well, in 58 Super Bowls, it's 30-28, all right?

02:52So it's been very, very close in the history of Super Bowls with the coin toss.

02:56But in the last year, I've got it right here, the last four to last five years, three to

03:03last four years, it's actually been heads.

03:06I'm going to bet tails this year, Scott.

03:10This thing, they come in waves, you know?

03:13And it's plus 100.

03:14A little fun to get the day started.

03:16But I am going to bet on tails, coin toss, three to last four years, it has been heads.

03:22Tails 30, heads 28 through 58 Super Bowls.

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