Chargers vs. Raiders: Impact of AFC Playoff Seeding

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00:00From a spread perspective, Bluett, one of my favorite handicapping games of the weekend will

00:04be something we could see change in about 24 hours. The Chargers and the Raiders in Las Vegas,

00:11depending on the results of Saturday. If the Ravens beat the Browns, they're nearly a 20-point

00:17favorite. Baltimore wins the AFC North. Why am I mentioning that? Because then we go to Saturday

00:23night in the Steel City. The Steelers might not be able to win the division, but Pittsburgh is

00:27going to want to win against the Bengals to claim the 5-seed and head to Houston and not their

00:33divisional mates in Baltimore. If Pittsburgh beats Cincy, the Bengals also need the game to

00:39keep their playoff hopes alive, then the Chargers are kind of stuck. They're just going to be the

00:456-seed. Currently, L.A. is a 4.5-point favorite against a Raiders team that has nothing to play

00:52for. Las Vegas, after winning two straight, can't even have the number one overall pick anymore.

00:58They've been eliminated from first overall pick contention as well. Bluett, if the Chargers need

01:04this game, I think this line balloons up to pass a touchdown if they can be the 5-seed. You want

01:11to go to Houston. You don't want to go to the Charm City to take on the Ravens. If the Chargers

01:17don't need this game because Pittsburgh wins tomorrow night, then the Raiders could end up

01:22as a home favorite. How do you approach betting this game right here, right now? I think it's

01:28fair for you to call out that there is value to be had right now based on not knowing the results.

01:34However, this game really can change dramatically. I was just talking about the Dobbins

01:40incentive. Well, Dobbins probably doesn't play if the Steelers win and the Chargers are locked in,

01:46and by the way, any coach that tells you they don't really care who they play in the first round,

01:51lie. Nobody wants to go to Baltimore and play Lamar in that first week. Not the Steelers,

01:56not the Chargers. Nobody wants to do that. Teams are supremely motivated on seeding,

02:02particularly in the AFC this year. Ben, honestly, right now, I think this is a stay-away game.

02:08There's too much riding on tomorrow night's result for me to go all in on the Chargers

02:15to try to capture value right now. It can change too dramatically,

02:18and Herbert and Dobbins and others wouldn't play.