Russian general assassination 'fits a pattern', more to come from Ukraine's SBU, analyst says

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00:00Let's bring in Melinda Harding, who is a senior community engagement advisor at RASOM for

00:05Ukraine and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.

00:11Thanks so much for joining us on the program, Melinda.

00:13It's great to have you.

00:14Tell us why in your mind you think that Ukraine went after this top commander, and do you

00:19think that his killing will change anything on the ground?

00:24It's great to be here.

00:25This is not the first Russian general who's been killed over the last three years since

00:30the big war began in Ukraine, but this is the first general who's been killed in Russia

00:36far from the front lines.

00:38Will it change anything?

00:39No, but it sends a message to Russians that the war is not as far as they may think and

00:45that high-level Russian military officials cannot hide from the Ukrainian side.

00:50And of course, Ukrainian agents have killed this top commander in the Russian capital

00:55on Russian soil.

00:56How much of an embarrassment is this for the Kremlin to have this security breach?

01:02It's a big-time embarrassment.

01:04It's shocking, actually.

01:06We've seen a series, though, if it's a pattern, we've seen a series in the last couple of

01:10weeks of other Russian military officials either being hit by cars or dying in circumstances

01:17that don't make sense.

01:18So I expect to see more of this behavior from the Ukrainian SBU.

01:23And of course, General Kurilov was prominent not only in terms of military-wise, he was

01:29also prominent in terms of Russia's propaganda over the war in Ukraine.

01:34And his death comes at a time when Russian morale is already very low.

01:39Tell us what impact it's going to have in terms of propaganda and morale among the Russian

01:45public.

01:46That's right.

01:47So this general was sort of notorious for going on Russian state TV and stirring the

01:51pot and propagating Russian lies.

01:56So it will definitely have an impact on that, but I have to say there's no shortage of Russian

02:00propagandists.

02:01But I think it's more significant that this was the man who was in charge of chemical

02:05weapons.

02:06And we've seen the Russian side use chemical weapons in at least 50,000 instances, according

02:11to the Ukrainians, along the front line on Ukrainian soldiers.

02:15So I think this is, it feels like sweet revenge on the Ukrainian side that they have hit a

02:21target who was attacking Ukrainian soldiers.

02:25And the kind of chemical weapons that they're using are horrific and obviously cause a lot

02:31of pain and difficulty with breathing.

02:33So I think that there was a lot of cheering in Kiev when this news broke.

02:40Let's talk about the wider context here, Melinda.

02:41Of course, Ukraine is now trying to ramp up its own arms production in Ukraine.

02:48And that's, of course, ahead of an incoming Trump presidency.

02:51Tell us how you see the future of US aid for Kiev with Trump going to return to the White

02:58House in January.

03:01So no one knows.

03:02And there's a couple of different scenarios.

03:04One scenario is that Donald Trump is highly sceptical of Ukraine aid.

03:08He thinks that Zelensky is the greatest showman he's ever seen.

03:12And he zeroes out assistance on January 20th.

03:15And the Ukrainians and the Europeans are stuck and they have to figure out a way out.

03:19That's one option.

03:20And that's the most extreme option.

03:22I don't think that's the likely scenario.

03:24Donald Trump has a number of nominees, including Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who's the

03:30special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, who are quite tough on Russia.

03:34He's also nominated Mr. Waltz, who's a congressman, as his national security advisor, who's also

03:40very, he has a very internationalist view.

03:43So I don't expect Trump to zero out aid.

03:46Trump wants to bring peace to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he says he's going

03:51to do it in 24 hours.

03:53But no one here in Washington believes him.

03:54We all think that's a campaign promise.

03:56The question, though, the big question, no one has an answer to this, is how do you compel,

04:02how do you get Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table?

04:05Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg has suggested that you tell Kiev, you must come to the negotiating

04:10table or we will cut off arms, and then Moscow will come to the negotiating table in exchange

04:16for freezing, that the Ukraine will either not join NATO or there will be a freezing

04:21of its NATO aspirations and some sanctions relief.

04:25Moscow already has said, drop dead, no thanks.

04:28So it's unclear how Putin is going to meet this campaign pledge.

04:32Yeah, we'll have to see how that plays out.

04:35I want to talk about the fact that NATO's chief, Mark Rutte, just a few days ago spoke

04:41of the fact that NATO members need to change to a wartime mindset and warn that NATO members

04:48aren't doing enough to prepare for a possible scenario of entering war with Russia.

04:55Do you think that NATO members are taking that warning seriously enough?

05:00So I think Europe is scared.

05:02They have been sitting on their hands for the last three years.

05:06Europe relies on the United States to protect them with military power.

05:12And there is a scenario in which Trump says, you're on your own, guys.

05:18We've been telling you, you need to meet the NATO quota and you're not doing it.

05:22So yes, I think Europe is scared, but they haven't put the production lines, the kind

05:27of defensive lines in place that they needed to do years ago.

05:31So they're quite nervous and I think that the NATO secretary's remarks are spot on.

05:38Melinda, great to talk to you.

05:40Thanks so much for joining us on the programme.

05:42Melinda Haring there speaking from Washington.

05:45She's a senior community engagement advisor at Razom for Ukraine.

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