00:00Still a long way to go in this count, we may not even know tonight.
00:05I want to bring in Parker Novak, he's from the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, as
00:09well as the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative.
00:11Thanks so much for joining us tonight.
00:13Look, we don't know who's going to win this, but I do want to look at the foreign policy
00:17implications, particularly for our part of the world.
00:19You specialize on this.
00:21What is at stake in terms of the U.S.-China relationship if Trump is to prevail tonight?
00:27I think what you're going to see is, if Mr. Trump is to prevail, a more aggressive and
00:32confrontational approach towards China that was manifested during his first term as president
00:38on security issues, economic issues go down the list, and it's something his campaign
00:43has also clearly telegraphed.
00:45But I also think, as part and parcel to that, you're going to see a Trump administration
00:49also prioritizing the Indo-Pacific region as well.
00:52We did see from memory in the first Trump term a bit of a seesawing relationship with
00:56Xi Jinping, and this question of, if we do see in the coming four years an attempt by
01:03China to annex Taiwan, we know Joe Biden has said, what, four times that, yes, he would
01:08have their back militarily, he would intervene.
01:10Trump, I mean, his language has been recently, oh, it's 9,500 miles away, Taiwan.
01:16What does that tell you?
01:18It tells me that Taiwan is probably going to want some reassurances, to state the obvious,
01:24if Mr. Trump wins the election.
01:25But I also think Trump has a long record of people not wanting to, he doesn't want people
01:30to know what his position is, if you will.
01:33I don't say that to, I'm sorry, whitewash what he has said on Taiwan, but-
01:36That deliberate-
01:37There is a deliberate almost head faking that he tries to do as part of his approach to
01:41foreign policy.
01:42Look, climate change hasn't been a big feature here in the campaign, I don't think, but we
01:45watched very closely and the Pacific watches it even more intently.
01:50We know Donald Trump has said he would quit the Paris Agreement.
01:54How would that go down?
01:55What would that do in terms of the U.S. standing in the Pacific?
01:57Yeah, and I think first, as we look at the, I think across the board, you see both parties
02:03prioritizing the Pacific Islands in particular, where climate change issues are really front
02:08and center, arguably the price of doing business.
02:11I think you're going to see prioritization of that sub-region from regardless of who
02:15wins the election.
02:16But I think if the U.S. is to be advancing its diplomatic goals in the region, building
02:21the robust relationships it wants in the Pacific, Trump's positions on climate change may be
02:26a hindrance to that, but I don't think that's going to completely prevent them from engaging
02:30in the region.
02:31It will certainly be a challenge for them, certainly different than what Pacific nations
02:35are wanting to see.
02:36But yeah, I mean, if he were to stand by his position of drill, baby, drill, no Paris Agreement,
02:42how does the Pacific react to that?
02:44Do they turn more to China?
02:45And so at least these guys are doing a bit more.
02:47And I certainly don't think they would react well.
02:49I think to answer the latter part, ultimately, that all depends on what China's actually
02:53doing.
02:54What about Kamala Harris?
02:55There's been some criticism.
02:56We don't really know a lot about her foreign policy plans for the Asia-Pacific region in
03:02particular.
03:03Is it, do we expect a continuation of the Biden administration approach?
03:08I broadly expect continuity from the Biden administration, not across every single issue.
03:12I think broadly, it's safe to say that some of it will come down to personnel who she
03:16appoints to key roles like Secretary of State, National Security Advisor, and where those
03:20individuals prioritize the Indo-Pacific.
03:23Same would be true for the Trump administration as well, but I think broadly speaking, general
03:27continuity.
03:28And what's the talk around town about those positions?
03:31Whoever wins, Trump, Harris, Secretary of State, any inside word on who we could expect
03:36to see?
03:37Yeah, and all public information.
03:38But yeah, I think you're seeing names like Linda Thomas-Greenfield and CIA Director Bill
03:43Burns thrown around on the Democratic side.
03:45On the Republican side, you've seen names like Bill Hagerty, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio,
03:50Marco Rubio, several others thrown around.
03:52It's going to come down to ultimately also who's confirmable by the president, depending
03:57how control over there shakes out tonight.
03:59Yeah, exactly.
04:00What they can get through Congress.
04:02Foreign policy, it has a big impact, this election outcome on the world, but does it
04:08really matter in terms of the domestic election stakes, what their foreign policy positions
04:13are?
04:14Yeah, and I think you've seen foreign policy certainly discussed during the election campaign
04:17with certain segments of voters.
04:18It has resonated.
04:19Certainly, what's happening in the Middle East.
04:21Certainly.
04:22I think if you look at a lot of the exit polling that's come out tonight, it shows voters,
04:24no surprise, prioritizing economic issues, issues of democracy, immigration as well.
04:30I think I saw the NBC and CNN exit polls, each had foreign policy, 4% for what is your
04:35top priority.
04:36You know, it has certainly been a flashpoint during the campaign.
Comments