NFL Game Analysis: Colts vs. Vikings Betting Insights

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00:00These are two teams that I am selling earlier this week on game time decisions.

00:09We went through some updated win totals and I played both of these teams under their current

00:14number Vikings at 10 and a half at plus 130 and the call today and a half at minus 142.

00:20I don't particularly love where either team sits and I certainly don't like their upcoming

00:24schedule for the rest of the season here, Joe, how do you see this game playing out

00:29between Minnesota and Indianapolis?

00:30Well, from the spread perspective, I lean to the Colts with Flacco catching the five

00:34and a half.

00:35The reason why I say that is because again, I still believe in them having a little bit

00:38more consistency than Minnesota right now.

00:41I mean, the one thing that Minnesota was dominant in when they did start five and O was that

00:46their defense was rock solid.

00:48They had the second best rush defense in all of the NFL and you look now on back to back

00:52games, granted one of them was Detroit, but they've given up 30 points per game.

00:56This offense now with Sam Darnold has shown halves of consistent football, but now it

01:02started with the jet game.

01:03They dominated the first half, second half.

01:05They looked inconsistent, Darnold missing throws.

01:08He can't hit JJ.

01:09Instead of scoring touchdowns, Donnie, they're settling for field goals.

01:13They did it again, yet again in the Thursday night game against LA, which cost them the

01:17victory.

01:18I can't buy in until I see this game play out early on.

01:21I'm taking the Colts.

01:22I do lean to the under because again, I just don't believe in that offense of Minnesota

01:26right now.

01:27Even though JJ's putting up numbers, give me the Colts in the under.

01:30I actually think this is the perfect time to put Joe Flacco in because if you look at

01:33Minnesota, a little bit leaky on the back end where you know Joe Flacco's got that arm

01:36to get it downfield.

01:37You finally got healthy wide receivers who look like they're going to be healthy at least

01:39for the season, Pittman, Downs and Pierce, but bigger than that, the play action pass

01:43will work.

01:44Ryan Flores is a great defensive coordinator.

01:46Like I honestly think he'd probably put Anthony Richardson in an absolute pretzel today.

01:49I don't think he can do that with Joe Flacco so the whole field is open.

01:52I'm taking the points.

01:53Am I saying that Indy should be able to go in there and get a victory?

01:55No, but I don't think that we're going to head into the fourth quarter where this is

01:58any more than a one possession game.

01:59I'll take it.

02:00I just want to say last time they were there was 33-0 first three game.

02:05Kirk Cousins came back so just saying all that's...

02:09We watched that game.

02:10Saturday.

02:11Shout it out.

02:12Oh, I had a Jonathan Taylor receiving prop in that game, like 18 and a half.

02:17He caught like an 18 yard grab on the first play and got injured on the play and I lost

02:20the bet.

02:21I think actually that's back when they were still doing refunds when star players got

02:25hurt.

02:26So, there's a lot of interesting things within this football game, but one thing that jumped

02:31off the page for me was if you look at Flacco, one of the selling points I think for Indy

02:36is he's played clean football.

02:38Seven touchdowns to one interception and I thought to myself, man, I wonder what Flacco

02:43is to throw a pick and he was around minus 130, minus 135.

02:48The Vikings have done a really nice job picking quarterbacks off this season and then I look

02:52back at what he did with the Browns last year, because everybody's probably like, man,

02:55this is the same...

02:56He threw a pick in every single game that he started for the Cleveland Browns last season.

03:00I'm playing Flacco to throw a pick.

03:01I think it is that simple.

03:02Oh, he's throwing it today.

03:03Yeah.

03:04Yeah, you know what I mean?

03:05I think it is one of those...

03:06I know that that's for some people a little off the beaten path, but Flacco throwing an

03:10interception at minus 135 when sometimes we see those quarterbacks, those guns...

03:14I mean, remember Jameis Winston with last week minus 200 to throw an interception?

03:18It should have happened.

03:19Oh boy, oh boy.

03:20It should have lost.

03:22Kyle Hamilton, I think, was on the drop there.

03:24Notre Dame.

03:25Eddie Jackson.

03:26No wonder he dropped.

03:27We're going to hear from a Notre Dame alum in a second here, but I do think Flacco to

03:31throw an interception is a very, very legitimate look within this football game.

03:36I am fascinated to see how the wide receiver room plays out.

03:39Josh Downs has clearly been Flacco's number one when he's in the game, but Michael Pittman

03:44gets enough work.

03:45They've just not had any type of rhythm so far, but it's reflected in the props market.

03:50Josh Downs is about 10 or 12 yards higher than Pittman, and we know typically the idea,

03:55Joe, is that Michael Pittman is the number one wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts.

04:00Yes.

04:01You have to get him the football in this matchup.

04:02I believe Pittman will go through his number today and potentially he can get close to

04:06100 yards in this matchup.

04:09We've seen receivers eat.

04:10Pukunukuwa, Cooper Cup had great success on Thursday night against that secondary, and

04:15if they're not generating a pass rush, for the most part, there was only one or two times

04:19that Matt Stafford I saw under pressure in that ballgame, especially in the second half.

04:24As long as he has a clean pocket, you know, he can pick apart that secondary.

04:28So again, and keep in mind as well, the Colts defense hasn't been all that bad last three

04:33weeks.

04:34They give up 23 to Houston.

04:35They basically contain them, force them to work down the field 17 and 10.

04:40Over the last three weeks, they're slowly coming into form.

04:43That's why I like the Colts with the point.

04:44Yeah, I think the Colts will be able to stay close and also bringing back, this is the

04:47perfect game.

04:48If you're going to make a substitution, a quarterback going up against Flores' defense,

04:51the entire field will be open.

04:52Just a matter of can Flacco be accurate.

04:54If he is, there's a legitimate chance they can knock off the Minnesota Vikings who reeling

04:57a little bit and need to get back on their feet.

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