Severe storm threat ramping up in the central US for the start of November

The threat of severe storms will steadily expand across the central U.S. from Nov. 2-4, including a risk of isolated tornadoes.

Transcript

00:00I want to bring in Guy. We're going to go day by day with this severe weather that begins in West

00:06Texas. Let's talk about what you and the severe weather team are concerned about in West Texas

00:13for this setup on Saturday. Yep, good morning everybody. So first off here on Saturday we do

00:21have sort of a limited area for severe weather. That's going to be mainly over that, you know,

00:27West Texas, maybe into far western Oklahoma area. I'm really mainly looking at damaging winds

00:34and some hail. There might be an isolated tornado, but the main threats with this one,

00:39especially this early on in the progression of that trough through the four corners and out

00:44into the plains, will mainly be hail and then those localized damaging wind gusts here. All

00:50right, on Sunday, you know what, we still have a some risk, Guy, but I think there's a concern

00:55that each day from Saturday through Monday it ramps up a little bit the severe weather.

01:01We've shifted it eastward. We still have some risk. What are the possibilities

01:05that we're going to upgrade this into a moderate risk within the next 24 hours?

01:12Yeah, it's something that we're certainly keeping an eye on. We've had some conversations about that

01:16this morning and certainly it looks like if we were to add a moderate at some point here in the

01:22next 24 hours, it would really be from that northwest Texas area up through the center part

01:27of Oklahoma and mainly probably keeping it confined to that area if we were to issue and add in that

01:35moderate risk. Once again, main threats with this one is going to be hail as well as damaging winds

01:41and then your tornado chances will sort of increase a little bit each day, I think, as we go

01:47from, you know, probably very limited from what we saw on Saturday there to then increasing a

01:53little bit more Sunday in that southern part of the sum that we have drawn here and then increasing

02:00a little bit more for Monday even. And Monday to me, Guy, of the next three days, let's exclude

02:07today, but there's not going to be any. This is the day that we're going to see most of the severe weather?

02:12Yep, I would say certainly Monday's the day. The trough as it goes into the southwest sort of

02:17hangs up out there over the next, you know, as you get into Saturday, Sunday, it's got to really wait

02:23for that next piece of energy. You were talking about the energy on the west side of that sort of

02:27diving in here today, driving it south over the next 24 hours. It's got to wait for that next

02:32piece of energy after that to then really start to kick it out during the day on Monday here.

02:37Yeah, and I would also really quickly, in about 10-15 seconds, the tornado threat really starts to amp up here, Guy?

02:46That is correct. Yeah, we get that negative tilt that we talk about as that piece of energy comes

02:51out and it'll start to gin things up a little bit more from a tornado aspect. It's certainly for

02:56Monday and into Monday night. AccuWeather severe weather expert Guy Pearson. Guy, thanks for your

03:00knowledge and your expertise and thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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