00:00Welcome to Apropos, the Iranian president is insisting that his appointment will strengthen
00:07the Hezbollah resistance. Sheikh Naeem Qasem has been chosen to succeed the militant group's
00:13long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed last month in an Israeli airstrike
00:18on a suburb of Beirut. His deputy for over three decades, the 71-year-old, is set to
00:24play a key role in truce negotiations. Eliza Herbert has more.
00:30For more than three decades, Sheikh Naeem Qasem was Hezbollah's deputy leader and dedicated
00:36spokesperson for the group.
00:41We as Hezbollah will continue to acquire strength, increase in number and prepare as much equipment
00:48as we can in order to persist on the field, facing Israel and those behind it.
00:57Now he has claimed the top spot. On Tuesday, Hezbollah's Shura council chose Qasem to
01:02succeed Hassan Nasrallah as secretary general, after he was killed in an Israeli strike on
01:08September 27th. But it was not a straightforward succession path.
01:14In the months since, Hezbollah has suffered a series of blows. Just weeks after Nasrallah's
01:19death, Hashem Safieddine, considered his most likely predecessor, was also killed in an
01:24Israeli airstrike. And the Israeli government has already warned that Qasem could be next.
01:32His tenure in this position may be the shortest in the history of this terrorist organisation
01:37if he follows in the footsteps of his predecessors, Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine.
01:43Qasem was born in 1953 to a family from south Lebanon and he was raised in Beirut. In 1982
01:50he became one of Hezbollah's founding members and often spoke on behalf of the group when
01:55Nasrallah was in hiding. However, Qasem has his shortcomings. Significantly,
02:01he was not particularly involved in military matters, which were mostly managed by Safieddine
02:06and Nasrallah. Since his predecessor's death, he has vowed the group will keep fighting
02:11Israel, but has also shown openness towards a ceasefire in Lebanon.
02:17To discuss, we're joined now by David Woods, journalist and senior analyst for Lebanon
02:22at the International Crisis Group. Thank you so much for being with us on the programme
02:26this evening, David. So Qasem, he's one of Hezbollah's founding members, was Nasrallah's
02:32deputy for more than three decades. Talk to us a little bit about the significance of
02:37this appointment. It won't have come really as a surprise, but do you expect it to result
02:42in a broader shift in Hezbollah's direction? So I think that Naim Qasem is a pragmatic
02:50and safe choice by Hezbollah as the new leader. As you mentioned, for over three decades,
02:55he was the deputy leader of the party and he's someone who's been with the party since
02:59his earliest days. We also know that with someone like him, he's very well known, not
03:05just to Hezbollah's supporters, but a well-known figure in Lebanon and also to the international
03:09community. Also, as you point out, he's not Nasrallah. I mean, they're incredibly big
03:15shoes to fill. Nasrallah was someone who was very charismatic and deeply involved in military
03:20strategy. Naim Qasem has been always considered more of a spiritual leader for the party.
03:26And also, it's very likely that more likely number one choices, including Hesham Safieddin
03:31and perhaps other senior Hezbollah figures, have fallen prey to Israel's targeted assassinations,
03:38which have really ramped up in the past six weeks. On the other hand, it's worth remembering
03:42that while these ceasefire negotiations are going on, even before Naim Qasem officially
03:47became the secretary general today, Hezbollah has been continuing with its rocket and missile
03:52launches into northern Israel and has also continued to put up a seemingly stiff resistance
03:56to the ground invasion of Israel in southern Lebanon. So while Qasem might not have been
04:01the number one choice, it does not seem likely to alter the course of the war that he has
04:05ended up being the secretary general. And he's set to play a key role in any future
04:10truce negotiations. Will it be him who will ultimately have to decide if Hezbollah accepts
04:16a ceasefire? What kind of a role do you think he's going to play? So Naim Qasem, as a senior
04:21figure in Hezbollah, will obviously have a voice and a position at the table in those
04:26sorts of negotiations. But Hezbollah is an institution that has processes in place.
04:32Most of the members of the Shura Council, which guides the ultimate direction of the party,
04:38still survive and are finding ways to communicate, evidently, it would seem.
04:41So they will also be involved in the decision. I think it's also important to not discount the
04:45role of Iran, which has reportedly taken a more direct role in the military strategy of Hezbollah.
04:52And equally, Iran will be involved in negotiations for any kind of ceasefire in Lebanon.
04:56But do you think that he would be more open perhaps than his predecessor in accepting
05:01some kind of truce that is different if there is, for example, a truce also agreed for Gaza?
05:09So as we know, Hezbollah from the start of this conflict back in October
05:14last year had insisted that it would not stand down until there was a ceasefire in Gaza.
05:18Now, in recent weeks, after Israel's massive escalations against the group,
05:23it seems as though Hezbollah is showing more flexibility. And Naim Qasem himself has already
05:28said in his public addresses as the acting leader of Hezbollah that he supports truce negotiations.
05:34While these negotiations should be encouraged, it's also worth noting that Hezbollah is clearly
05:39not in a position of weakness where it would accept just any terms in order to get a ceasefire.
05:44So while there might be a ceasefire in Lebanon without a ceasefire in Gaza,
05:48it cannot be on terms that would effectively amount to a complete surrender of Hezbollah.
05:52Yeah, because he had previously claimed after Nasrallah's assassination that the group's
05:57military capabilities remained intact. You say they're not as weak as perhaps some analysts
06:04would believe, but they must be to a certain degree following the deaths of so many of their
06:08fighters and of so many of their senior leaders. Oh, without a doubt. In the past six weeks,
06:15since mid-September, Hezbollah has suffered very severe losses, not just in these assassinations
06:20of senior leaders, but also through the attacks on communications devices. And of course,
06:25these massive aerial bombing campaigns in not just the south of Lebanon, but also in the Bekaa Valley
06:31and the southern suburbs of Beirut. But on the other hand, as we're seeing during this period,
06:36ever since that massive escalation started, Hezbollah has maintained its rocket and missile
06:40fire into northern Israel and is still clearly coordinating and mounting a resistance to the
06:45ground invasion in the south. So while undoubtedly Hezbollah's military capabilities have been
06:50weakened, we don't know how much. And what we do know for sure, however, is that it's clear the
06:55party is not down and out in its confrontation with Israel. Israel also, it's been, of course,
07:00trying to eliminate, as it says, all of Hezbollah's senior leaders. Does the fact
07:05that it was able, the group was able to just appoint a new leader so quickly, even though
07:11it's been several weeks since his predecessor's death, does that suggest, though, that Israel's
07:16objective here is impossible? I think it's impossible to completely eliminate Hezbollah
07:24as an institution. Now, already Israel has threatened to track down and assassinate Naim
07:29Asim. But it's clear that within a party as institutionalized as Hezbollah, they will
07:35eventually find a way to replace any leader who is assassinated. The question, of course,
07:39is how many of these severe blows can Hezbollah suffer and continue to operate effectively as a
07:45military actor? We don't know how long that would take. But what we do know is that as we're seeing
07:49with this ground invasion, that Israel, by entering on the ground in Lebanon, which it
07:54sees is necessary to achieve its war objectives, is suffering significant casualties. And that will
07:59have an impact on Israel's calculus about truce negotiations, and whether it wants to continue
08:05to prosecute this war, which is disastrous, not just for Hezbollah and Lebanon, but also
08:10increasingly for Israel. And David, Hassem's appointment, does that suggest to you that
08:15Hezbollah is running its own affairs rather than advisors in Iran? What would your view be on that?
08:23I think it's really impossible to tell from outside the party exactly how coordination is
08:28going on between the leadership. And this, of course, has been massively complicated
08:33by the fact that Israel has not just infiltrated the party with intelligence sources, but also with
08:37these attacks on communication devices, which make the bare act of talking to each other,
08:42especially as senior leaders, much more difficult. However, while the party remains
08:48operational on some level, it is clear that Iran is taking more direct interest and involvement in
08:54what the party is doing, and would have obviously been involved in discussions about who would
08:58replace Nasrallah as the permanent secretary general. David, you're also a journalist as well
09:03as being an analyst. If we can look to what is happening in Gaza, UNRWA, the UN agency,
09:09banned from operating in Israel. Do we know how many journalists, how many UN staff have
09:14been killed there at this stage in the war? I don't have the specifics on those figures,
09:20but if we're talking about UNRWA and this decision to ban it, that could have disastrous
09:25consequences for Gaza and also for the West Bank and everywhere that UNRWA operates within
09:31Palestine. And the obvious reason for that is that so many Palestinians rely on this agency
09:37for bare essentials. And while there's this assumption that other UN agencies could step
09:42into the breach, and maybe they can with emergency supplies like food, issues such as education and
09:48healthcare are things that UNRWA provides directly to Palestinians and there is no viable alternative
09:53to that, which could of course lead to further radicalisation and of course the deepening of the
09:59humanitarian and development crisis that already exists in Gaza. And some observers have described
10:04the move to ban the agency as essentially a declaration of war against the United Nations.
10:10What now for Israeli-UN relations? They were obviously before this not in a good place.
10:18I mean, I think already Israeli-UN relations are approaching rock bottom and we've seen also in
10:24Lebanon that there has been a massive spat caused by Israeli attacks that have been wounding various
10:32peacekeepers who are with the UN peacekeeping force UNIFIL in the south of Lebanon. So
10:36this is part of a wider trend where clearly Israel views the United Nations as a hostile actor.
10:42On the other hand, really, while the UN will continue to press for calm and a ceasefire and
10:48an end to the violence both in Gaza and in Lebanon and the region more generally, it's
10:51incumbent on the United States really, as Israel's main ally and patron, to apply serious pressure to
10:57Israel to de-escalate and move towards diplomatic solutions. Now that might seem quite unlikely
11:03before the presidential elections, but both presidential candidates, whether Donald Trump
11:07or Kamala Harris should win, should immediately move to really push Israel to move away from the
11:12logic of violence and towards the logic of negotiation, which is in the interest not just
11:16of the entire region, but also Israel itself. But do you think the US is likely to do that
11:20and will have any impact on what Netanyahu decides to do? Well, obviously both candidates have said
11:29that they favour a rapid conclusion to the war. We don't know exactly what will happen until we
11:34know who will be the new president. Now clearly the US has the tools to apply more pressure to
11:40Israel, not just because it provides so much political cover to Israel's activities, but also
11:46because Israel is so reliant on American arms shipments. So the tools are there. And whether
11:50there'll be political will to use it, well, the longer this conflict goes on, the greater it
11:56exposes the United States to being drawn into this conflict. And for that reason,
12:01thinking pragmatically from the American point of view, it would seem like logical for Washington
12:07to again, move Israel away from this logic of using violence to achieve its objectives and
12:12to do so through diplomacy instead. David, thank you so much for your time on the programme. We'll
12:16have to leave it there for now. That is David Wood, journalist and senior analyst for Lebanon
12:21at the International Crisis Group. Well, that's it from us.
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