Will France, Morocco's shift onto more common ground ease France's relationships in Sahelian crisis?

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00:00French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to Morocco this Monday,

00:05a sign of rapprochement after years of tensions between the two countries.

00:09Macron will even be welcomed on the tarmac by King Mohammed VI, a rare honour.

00:14Much of the strain derives from France's ambiguous stance on the disputed Western Sahara

00:19and Macron's quest for closer ties with Algeria.

00:23The Western Sahara is a Spanish-Conolly colony largely controlled by Morocco, but claimed

00:28by the Algeria-backed Polisario Front.

00:31Let's get some more analysis on this then.

00:34We can bring in Paul Melly, who's a consulting fellow of the Africa Programme at Chatham

00:40House.

00:41Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.

00:45Does Macron's stance on the Western Sahara constitute a breakthrough in bilateral relations?

00:52I think it really does.

00:54There have been a lot of other irritants in Moroccan-French relations over the last

01:00two or three years.

01:02For example, rows over visas, rows over Morocco's readiness to accept people whose immigration

01:09status was rejected by France, accusations about claims that Morocco might have had a

01:17connection to do with bugging, intelligence bugging of senior French figures, those sorts

01:25of things.

01:26But the real big issue is the Western Sahara, which of course is a territory that was originally,

01:33as you mentioned, a Spanish colony until the mid-1970s after the death of General Franco,

01:40when Spain became a democracy.

01:42And the Western Sahara, before its status could be finally decided at an international

01:50level, was taken over, occupied by Morocco.

01:53And then a guerrilla movement, the Polisario, emerged fighting for Western Sahara independence.

02:01And the conflict has really been deadlocked since then, with Morocco occupying most of

02:07Western Sahara and a very large number of Moroccans coming to settle in the territory.

02:14Quite a lot of investment and development.

02:17But Polisario still active in parts of the territory beyond a defensive sand wall that

02:24the Moroccan military built.

02:28And crucially, with Polisario, the independence fight is backed by Algeria.

02:33So around Tanduf in the west, far west of the Algerian Sahara, that's really where Polisario

02:43is now headquartered.

02:44So there's been over decades this complete deadlock, and it's become very linked to the

02:50many difficulties in relations between Algeria and Morocco.

02:55But in late July, France actually shifted its position and officially for the first

03:01time said that it felt that the future of the Western Sahara had to lie within an autonomy

03:09plan the Moroccans had drawn up.

03:12And what does that mean for Algeria-French relations then?

03:16Well, it's very difficult because President Macron has also made a big effort over recent

03:23years to try and improve relations with Algeria.

03:28The independence war in the 1950s, when Algerians fought for independence from France, was particularly

03:37brutal and bloody on both sides.

03:39It was a devastating conflict which left scars in the relationship for decades.

03:46And Macron's gone out of his way to try and repair that relationship and recognize the

03:56difficult past.

03:57For example, a very prominent French historian was appointed to write a report really looking

04:03at, if you like, the harsh truths about that conflict and implicitly some of the terrible

04:15things that were done by French forces during the course of that conflict.

04:20And he has worked hard to build up a much more cooperative approach with the Algerians.

04:26But then with this decision now to accept the Moroccan stance or come very, not completely

04:34accept it, but come very close to the Moroccan stance on the Western Sahara, that has brought

04:41a halt to the rapprochement that was underway with Algeria.

04:46And of course, this is a difficult issue for many countries.

04:52France isn't the only country to shift its stance.

04:55Spain, notably, which also has a colonial connection with Morocco from past history,

05:03also recently shifted ground.

05:06But for the French, because France was the colonial power in Algeria and the main colonial

05:12power in Morocco over so many years, and there are such deep social and political and economic

05:20ties between France and the Maghreb countries, that has a particular sensitivity.

05:29And Morocco also has friendly relations with military regimes in the Sahel.

05:34Could this rapprochement with Morocco and France mean that it could ease France's troubles

05:40with countries like Burkina Faso, Niger or Mali?

05:45It might.

05:46It's obviously not the main factor in the visit, which is really about bilateral relations

05:51and the huge economic potential, for example.

05:55A huge number of French business people are accompanying Macron on this trip, and French

06:01companies hope for some big contracts.

06:03But Morocco has been unusual in reaching out to these three military regimes in Mali, Niger

06:11and Burkina Faso, at a time when they've been under pressure from ECOWAS, the West

06:17African bloc.

06:19That's to say the countries along the coast of West Africa.

06:25And Morocco has reached out and offered to the Sahel regimes an alternative trade route,

06:32an alternative trade gateway.

06:34Now making that practical would be very difficult, because it would mean developing trade routes

06:41across the Sahara, where security conditions are very difficult, with jihadist armed groups

06:46very active.

06:48But symbolically it was significant.

06:52And so with the rapprochement in relations between France and Morocco, that in the background

07:00might help to shift the ground a bit.

07:02In talking with some Sahelian officials over recent months, they've been saying, oh, well,

07:08the pressure will be a bit easier now because Morocco has reached out to us and offered

07:13us this alternative trade gateway that avoids the West African coastal countries.

07:19Well, that was always more of a gesture than a hard economic reality.

07:25But all the same, the fact that France and Morocco are now shifting onto more common

07:31ground will help possibly ease France's relationships in that really very difficult Sahelian crisis.

07:41And tell us then, it's worth noting, I mean, Macron's not going alone, he's going with

07:45a delegation.

07:46And as you mentioned, there's a focus on business deals for this visit.

07:50Can you just tell us about that?

07:52Yes.

07:53Well, although Western Sahara has a very small population, it has really important

07:57phosphate reserves.

07:59And of course, it is, as the name suggests, it's in the Sahara Desert.

08:04So very high level sunshine.

08:07And it's coastal.

08:08It's a strip along the coast of the west of the African continent between Morocco and

08:14Mauritania.

08:15And so there's great potential for solar power and wind power.

08:20And French companies are very interested in that within Western Sahara itself.

08:25And then in Morocco, of course, Morocco is a large economy.

08:29It already has significant, it's already very developed in sectors like banking and even,

08:35for example, aerospace.

08:37There's a very modern power factory with French investment outside Tangier already.

08:45And other French companies now, groups such as Airbus, for example, Total, the energy

08:52company, the French companies that are very active in construction of railway trains,

09:00they all have aspirations and hopes for big contracts.

09:04And it's going to be, in that sense, quite a significant economic breakthrough.

09:12And the symbolism of welcoming Macron at the airport after those earlier difficult

09:18issues around visas and intelligence and so on over the last couple of years will be really

09:24important.

09:25But it still poses regional questions because Algeria remains there, of course, strongly

09:33supporting Polisario.

09:35Polisario remains active, even though there hasn't really been a fighting in the last

09:40several years.

09:43And, of course, this also matters for Mauritania, which is another key partner of France and

09:48which lies to the south of Western Sahara.

09:52Paul Nelly, I'm going to have to cut you off there.

09:54I'm very sorry.

09:55That's all we have time for.

09:57Thank you very much for your analysis.

09:58That's Paul Nelly from Chatham House's Africa programme.

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