00:00Welcome to a slightly unusual week of weather dominated by just one area of low pressure.
00:06We often have one area of high pressure controlling our weather. We've certainly seen that a lot
00:10through the summer. But to have one area of low pressure controlling things for a number
00:15of days is fairly unusual. Lots of isobars on the charts initially as well. So that low
00:19will bring spells of wet and windy weather spiralling around it. By the time we get to
00:25Thursday, the low itself is kind of crossing the country. That means that the heavy showers
00:30it generates could become quite slow moving in places before it finally starts to drift
00:35away to the east by Friday. So dominated by one weather system, let's try and put some
00:42details on day by day. Tuesday shows a dry start for many, but some thunderstorms overnight
00:48still rumbling on over parts of northern England, southern Scotland. And we'll see more showers
00:52then generated through the day with nowhere immune. These are showers, so they will be
00:58somewhat hit and miss, but they'll also be heavy and perhaps even turn into thunderstorms
01:02with hail likely and certainly likely to drop a lot of rain in a short space of time. And
01:08as is often the case with showers and pretty tricky driving conditions, one minute it's
01:12dry and sunny. Next minute, you've got a downpour, a lot of spray and surface water on the roads.
01:18Notice the winds are coming up from the south around that area of low pressure, so bringing
01:23with them relatively warm air. So when the sun is out and it will come out at times,
01:27temperatures getting into the low or even mid-twenties across parts of eastern England.
01:33Still feeling quite warm, quite a brisk wind blowing again across the northeast and across
01:37the southwest, throwing in more showers here as we go through the evening. There's that
01:41low pressure still continuing to dominate. And as I say, further bands of showers will
01:47mill around it as we head into Wednesday. Again, many places will start the day dry
01:53with some sunny spells, but we'll see showers likely across northeastern parts of Scotland
01:58and then again, everywhere else joins in with those showers just scattered across all parts.
02:03Really by late morning, we'll see again heavy thundery downpours in places. They should
02:09tend to move through because there'll be enough of a breeze and we will again see some decent
02:13spells of sunshine, the south coast of England, for example, and that will lift the temperatures
02:18to above average values getting into the high teens or the low twenties. By the time we
02:23get to Thursday, as we saw earlier, that low pressure is kind of moving in across the UK.
02:28The isobars just started to open up in places. Could be quite windy across the southwest
02:33on Wednesday night for sure. But otherwise, as this low moves in, what we could see is
02:38the showers just kind of become more slow moving. So they'll last a little longer and
02:42they could drop more rain. And again, that could cause some issues. Certainly, again,
02:47nowhere immune from the downpours, but perhaps western Scotland looking a little drier on
02:51Thursday compared to the rest of the UK. Elsewhere, as I said, be prepared for showers, be prepared
02:56for some spray and surface water on the roads. And again, temperatures mostly a touch above
03:02average high teens or low twenties. Now, that low pressure is starting to very slowly ebb
03:09out towards the North Sea by the time we start Friday. Still, a lot of heavy showers
03:14moving around it, particularly across central and eastern parts. But the showers should
03:19be easing in the west. So a drier day for Northern Ireland and drying up perhaps across
03:24Wales and southwest England. Elsewhere, yes, plenty of showers during the day. But even
03:29here as that low starts to pull away later on, we should see the showers starting to
03:34fade. The winds are switching direction, though, so perhaps bringing a cooler feel, particularly
03:38on some of those North Sea coasts. That low pressure system then is finally starting to
03:43pull away by the time it gets to the weekend. So actually, at the moment, Saturday looks
03:48like being a largely dry day across the UK. Still a few showers here and there, but turning
03:53drier. However, there's another area of low pressure which is gaining quite a bit of attention.
04:00This one is bringing quite a bit of uncertainty into the forecast through the weekend and
04:05more particularly into next week. And here's the reason why. If we again rewind the clock
04:10and track this area of low pressure, you can see it has tropical origins. In fact, this
04:15low pressure starting out as is currently a hurricane. It's Hurricane Danielle in the
04:21subtropics. Now, as it drifts northwards, it will no longer be a hurricane. But when
04:25you've got these highly energetic systems, it does make the forecast more complicated.
04:31It brings with it more uncertainty, as this graphic shows quite clearly. This is a graph
04:37of the potential tracks when we run the computer model many, many times. Now, the different
04:43colours you can see here are the different days. So the first day red, then 48 hours
04:50in green. And then the next couple of days, you can see quite a reasonable agreement that
04:54most of the computer model runs are suggesting it's going to go into this track. But as we
04:58get towards Friday and the weekend, the tracks kind of splay out. So a lot of uncertainty,
05:05some of them taking them to the north, some of them taking them to the south and not many
05:09of them taking that area of low pressure, intense area of low pressure with all its
05:13warmth and humidity across the UK. So quite a bit of uncertainty as we go towards the
05:18weekend. Nothing unusual about that one. We've got X hurricanes in the mix, but certainly
05:23something to keep a very close eye on over the next few days. We'll be doing that here
05:27at the Met Office. Make sure you keep across all of our output by following us across social
05:33media.
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