00:00As we approach the final month before the 2024 presidential election,
00:04today we will be taking a close look at the 2024 election map
00:08based on the latest polling averages across all 50 states.
00:11With the election right around the corner,
00:13it's important to break down where each candidate stands.
00:17But before we get started,
00:18please don't forget to subscribe to my channel for more election-related content.
00:23You'll get predictions, breakdowns, and real-time updates on major events as we head toward Election Day.
00:29We will begin by analyzing which candidate is currently favored to win.
00:33Looking at the 538 presidential election simulations,
00:37we find that Kamala Harris wins 56 times out of 100,
00:42while Donald Trump wins 44 times out of 100.
00:45From this data,
00:47we can see that Kamala Harris is slightly favored to win the 2024 presidential election.
00:52However, it's essential to take a deeper dive into the polls
00:55to get a more accurate picture of how the election might unfold.
00:59This surface-level analysis doesn't tell the whole story,
01:03so we'll now move on to look at the national polls.
01:06Taking a closer look at the national polls,
01:08Kamala Harris currently leads Donald Trump by 2.8%.
01:12This may seem like a decent lead,
01:14but the real question is,
01:16is this lead significant enough to guarantee her a victory?
01:20On the other hand,
01:21Donald Trump's question is slightly different.
01:24Can he overcome this lead?
01:25And is this polling error small enough for him
01:28to secure wins in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania?
01:33Let's dive deeper into the polling averages across all 50 states
01:37and see how the newest data predicts how each state is likely to vote.
01:41To begin our analysis,
01:43we will start by filling in the solid states for each candidate.
01:47These are the states that are expected to vote for each candidate by a margin of over 15%.
01:53These states are often seen as the strongholds for each party,
01:57and there's very little doubt that the candidates will win them.
02:00For Kamala Harris, the solid states are Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington,
02:06Illinois, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts,
02:09Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia.
02:15These states have traditionally leaned heavily Democratic
02:18and are expected to remain so in this election.
02:21For Donald Trump, his solid states include Utah, Wyoming, Idaho,
02:26Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri,
02:32Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina,
02:38Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana.
02:41These states are reliable Republican strongholds
02:44and are expected to vote for Donald Trump by comfortable margins.
02:48With these solid states accounted for,
02:50Kamala Harris starts with 180 electoral votes,
02:54while Donald Trump begins with 120 electoral votes.
02:57Now, we move on to the likely states for each candidate.
03:01These are states that are expected to vote for each candidate by a margin of 10 to 15%.
03:07Although not quite as secure as the solid states,
03:09these likely states are still expected to be won by the candidates,
03:13barring any major shifts in polling data.
03:16For Kamala Harris, the likely states include New Hampshire,
03:20Maine's congressional districts, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico.
03:25These states have been leaning Democratic in recent elections
03:28and Harris is projected to win them with a comfortable margin.
03:31In addition to these states, Kamala Harris is also likely to win
03:36the state of Minnesota and Nebraska's second congressional district.
03:40In these areas, she leads by around 10 to 15% in the polls,
03:44which puts her in a strong position to win them on election day.
03:47For Donald Trump, his likely states include Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.
03:53These states have been leaning toward the Republican Party,
03:56and while the margin of victory may not be as large as his solid states,
04:00they are still expected to go in his favor.
04:02After accounting for these likely states,
04:04Kamala Harris's electoral count rises to 226 electoral votes,
04:10while Donald Trump's total increases to 148 electoral votes.
04:15Next, let's take a look at the lean states for each candidate.
04:18These are states where the candidates are expected to win by a margin of around 3 to 8%,
04:24making them more competitive, but still leaning toward one candidate or the other.
04:29Donald Trump is expected to win Texas and Florida by a lean margin.
04:33Texas has been shifting to the left in recent elections,
04:37but it still isn't competitive enough for the Democrats to realistically win.
04:41Florida, on the other hand, has been moving to the right.
04:44In the 2020 election, Biden lost Florida by a margin of 3.4%,
04:50which was even larger than Hillary Clinton's loss to Trump in 2016.
04:54For Kamala Harris, Michigan is expected to go to her by a lean margin.
04:59The polling averages in Michigan show Harris leading by 2.7%.
05:04Harris has been gaining ground in Michigan in recent months,
05:07and she is now projected to win this crucial swing state.
05:11Some recent polls even show Harris leading by as much as 6%,
05:16which is a significant margin in a key battleground state like Michigan.
05:20In 2020, Biden won Michigan by the largest margin of any of the key Rust Belt states,
05:26Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania,
05:28and Harris appears to be in a good position to replicate that success.
05:32With the lean states added, Kamala Harris now stands at 241 electoral votes,
05:38while Donald Trump has 219 electoral votes.
05:41Now we move on to the final battleground states
05:44that are expected to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
05:49These states are highly competitive, and both candidates have a chance to win them.
05:53We will start by analyzing the state of Georgia.
05:56According to the latest polling averages in Georgia,
05:59Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by a margin of 1.1%.
06:04In 2020, Joe Biden made history by flipping Georgia and winning it by just 0.2%.
06:11Marking the first time a Democrat had won the state since 1992.
06:15However, for years later, Kamala Harris is not as popular in Georgia as Biden was in 2020.
06:22On the other hand, Donald Trump has also seen his popularity decline in Georgia,
06:28especially after the events of January 6th and several major scandals.
06:32In Georgia, the key factor that will decide the outcome of the race is voter turnout,
06:37as well as the impact of voter suppression efforts.
06:40As of now, Donald Trump holds a very slim lead in the state.
06:44Next, we move on to North Carolina.
06:46Recently, the Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina, Mark Robinson,
06:51has been embroiled in several scandals related to
06:54controversial comments he made on various online platforms.
06:58Mark Robinson has been a close ally of Donald Trump for years,
07:02and Trump has endorsed him on multiple occasions.
07:05The two have campaigned together in both the presidential election and the gubernatorial race.
07:10Donald Trump has praised Mark Robinson extensively,
07:13even going so far as to compare him to Martin Luther King Jr.,
07:17calling him Martin Luther King Jr. on steroids and stating that Robinson is a better version of King.
07:23However, since the scandals broke, Mark Robinson's campaign has been struggling,
07:28and his polling numbers have plummeted to almost below 20%,
07:32far behind the Democratic nominee, Josh Stein.
07:35Because of his close association with Mark Robinson,
07:38Donald Trump may also face backlash from voters in North Carolina.
07:43This could lead to a boost for Kamala Harris in the state.
07:46Given these factors, I predict that Kamala Harris will win North Carolina by a very slim margin.
07:52Next, we move on to the state of Nevada.
07:55Polling averages show Kamala Harris leading by 0.7% in Nevada.
08:00In the last few elections, Nevada has consistently voted for the Democratic candidate,
08:06with margins of 2.4% in both 2016 and 2020.
08:10Harris's lead in Nevada is expected to grow as her national polling numbers improve,
08:15so I will give Nevada to her by a slight margin.
08:18Now, let's take a look at the state of Arizona.
08:21According to the latest polling averages,
08:23Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 0.8% in Arizona.
08:29In 2020, Arizona flipped blue for the first time in many election cycles,
08:34with Biden winning the state by a margin of 0.2%.
08:38However, Harris is performing worse than Biden among Hispanic and Black voters,
08:44while doing slightly better among white voters.
08:46This shift in demographics has caused some sun-belt states, like Arizona,
08:51to lean more toward the Republicans, while rust-belt states have been shifting to the left.
08:56Despite these changes, Arizona remains highly competitive.
09:00But for now, Donald Trump holds a slight lead in the latest polling data.
09:05With Arizona accounted for, Kamala Harris now has 263 electoral votes,
09:11while Donald Trump has 246 as we move on to the final two states in the 2024 election.
09:17We will begin with Wisconsin.
09:19Polling averages show Kamala Harris leading by 2.3% in Wisconsin,
09:24which is a solid lead that is expected to grow.
09:27Like we discussed earlier, the demographics of the rust-belt states,
09:31including Wisconsin, favor Kamala Harris because she is performing well among white voters.
09:37This gives her an advantage in states like Wisconsin, where the population is primarily white.
09:43Given these factors, I will give Wisconsin to Kamala Harris,
09:47which pushes her over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the 2024 presidential election.
09:53Finally, we arrive at the most important state of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania.
09:59Polling averages show Kamala Harris leading by 1.3% in Pennsylvania,
10:04which, like Wisconsin, is another rust-belt state where the demographics favor her.
10:09One of the major issues in Pennsylvania is fracking,
10:13and Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris for her changing stance on the issue.
10:17However, during the presidential debates,
10:20Harris made it clear that she would not ban fracking if elected president,
10:24which helped her gain support in Pennsylvania.
10:26Harris also performed well in the debate, which is expected to give her a boost in the state.
10:32Due to these factors, I will give Pennsylvania to Kamala Harris by a slim margin,
10:37bringing her final electoral total to 292 votes, while Donald Trump remains at 246 votes.
10:46If you made it this far, please subscribe to my channel for more election-related content,
10:51including predictions, polls, and real-time updates as we get closer to Election Day.
10:56Stay tuned for more videos.
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