2024 Election Map Based On FRESH Polling Averages In ALL STATES

1 year ago

The 2024 election map is starting to take shape as fresh polling data from all 50 states is released! In this video, we dive into the latest polling averages, analyze key swing states, and assess how the electoral landscape is shifting as we get closer to Election Day. From battleground states to solid strongholds, this breakdown covers where each candidate stands in the race for the White House. Stay tuned for a full analysis!

Transcript

00:00As we approach the final month before the 2024 presidential election,

00:04today we will be taking a close look at the 2024 election map

00:08based on the latest polling averages across all 50 states.

00:11With the election right around the corner,

00:13it's important to break down where each candidate stands.

00:17But before we get started,

00:18please don't forget to subscribe to my channel for more election-related content.

00:23You'll get predictions, breakdowns, and real-time updates on major events as we head toward Election Day.

00:29We will begin by analyzing which candidate is currently favored to win.

00:33Looking at the 538 presidential election simulations,

00:37we find that Kamala Harris wins 56 times out of 100,

00:42while Donald Trump wins 44 times out of 100.

00:45From this data,

00:47we can see that Kamala Harris is slightly favored to win the 2024 presidential election.

00:52However, it's essential to take a deeper dive into the polls

00:55to get a more accurate picture of how the election might unfold.

00:59This surface-level analysis doesn't tell the whole story,

01:03so we'll now move on to look at the national polls.

01:06Taking a closer look at the national polls,

01:08Kamala Harris currently leads Donald Trump by 2.8%.

01:12This may seem like a decent lead,

01:14but the real question is,

01:16is this lead significant enough to guarantee her a victory?

01:20On the other hand,

01:21Donald Trump's question is slightly different.

01:24Can he overcome this lead?

01:25And is this polling error small enough for him

01:28to secure wins in key swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania?

01:33Let's dive deeper into the polling averages across all 50 states

01:37and see how the newest data predicts how each state is likely to vote.

01:41To begin our analysis,

01:43we will start by filling in the solid states for each candidate.

01:47These are the states that are expected to vote for each candidate by a margin of over 15%.

01:53These states are often seen as the strongholds for each party,

01:57and there's very little doubt that the candidates will win them.

02:00For Kamala Harris, the solid states are Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington,

02:06Illinois, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts,

02:09Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia.

02:15These states have traditionally leaned heavily Democratic

02:18and are expected to remain so in this election.

02:21For Donald Trump, his solid states include Utah, Wyoming, Idaho,

02:26Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri,

02:32Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina,

02:38Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana.

02:41These states are reliable Republican strongholds

02:44and are expected to vote for Donald Trump by comfortable margins.

02:48With these solid states accounted for,

02:50Kamala Harris starts with 180 electoral votes,

02:54while Donald Trump begins with 120 electoral votes.

02:57Now, we move on to the likely states for each candidate.

03:01These are states that are expected to vote for each candidate by a margin of 10 to 15%.

03:07Although not quite as secure as the solid states,

03:09these likely states are still expected to be won by the candidates,

03:13barring any major shifts in polling data.

03:16For Kamala Harris, the likely states include New Hampshire,

03:20Maine's congressional districts, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico.

03:25These states have been leaning Democratic in recent elections

03:28and Harris is projected to win them with a comfortable margin.

03:31In addition to these states, Kamala Harris is also likely to win

03:36the state of Minnesota and Nebraska's second congressional district.

03:40In these areas, she leads by around 10 to 15% in the polls,

03:44which puts her in a strong position to win them on election day.

03:47For Donald Trump, his likely states include Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.

03:53These states have been leaning toward the Republican Party,

03:56and while the margin of victory may not be as large as his solid states,

04:00they are still expected to go in his favor.

04:02After accounting for these likely states,

04:04Kamala Harris's electoral count rises to 226 electoral votes,

04:10while Donald Trump's total increases to 148 electoral votes.

04:15Next, let's take a look at the lean states for each candidate.

04:18These are states where the candidates are expected to win by a margin of around 3 to 8%,

04:24making them more competitive, but still leaning toward one candidate or the other.

04:29Donald Trump is expected to win Texas and Florida by a lean margin.

04:33Texas has been shifting to the left in recent elections,

04:37but it still isn't competitive enough for the Democrats to realistically win.

04:41Florida, on the other hand, has been moving to the right.

04:44In the 2020 election, Biden lost Florida by a margin of 3.4%,

04:50which was even larger than Hillary Clinton's loss to Trump in 2016.

04:54For Kamala Harris, Michigan is expected to go to her by a lean margin.

04:59The polling averages in Michigan show Harris leading by 2.7%.

05:04Harris has been gaining ground in Michigan in recent months,

05:07and she is now projected to win this crucial swing state.

05:11Some recent polls even show Harris leading by as much as 6%,

05:16which is a significant margin in a key battleground state like Michigan.

05:20In 2020, Biden won Michigan by the largest margin of any of the key Rust Belt states,

05:26Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania,

05:28and Harris appears to be in a good position to replicate that success.

05:32With the lean states added, Kamala Harris now stands at 241 electoral votes,

05:38while Donald Trump has 219 electoral votes.

05:41Now we move on to the final battleground states

05:44that are expected to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

05:49These states are highly competitive, and both candidates have a chance to win them.

05:53We will start by analyzing the state of Georgia.

05:56According to the latest polling averages in Georgia,

05:59Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by a margin of 1.1%.

06:04In 2020, Joe Biden made history by flipping Georgia and winning it by just 0.2%.

06:11Marking the first time a Democrat had won the state since 1992.

06:15However, for years later, Kamala Harris is not as popular in Georgia as Biden was in 2020.

06:22On the other hand, Donald Trump has also seen his popularity decline in Georgia,

06:28especially after the events of January 6th and several major scandals.

06:32In Georgia, the key factor that will decide the outcome of the race is voter turnout,

06:37as well as the impact of voter suppression efforts.

06:40As of now, Donald Trump holds a very slim lead in the state.

06:44Next, we move on to North Carolina.

06:46Recently, the Republican nominee for governor in North Carolina, Mark Robinson,

06:51has been embroiled in several scandals related to

06:54controversial comments he made on various online platforms.

06:58Mark Robinson has been a close ally of Donald Trump for years,

07:02and Trump has endorsed him on multiple occasions.

07:05The two have campaigned together in both the presidential election and the gubernatorial race.

07:10Donald Trump has praised Mark Robinson extensively,

07:13even going so far as to compare him to Martin Luther King Jr.,

07:17calling him Martin Luther King Jr. on steroids and stating that Robinson is a better version of King.

07:23However, since the scandals broke, Mark Robinson's campaign has been struggling,

07:28and his polling numbers have plummeted to almost below 20%,

07:32far behind the Democratic nominee, Josh Stein.

07:35Because of his close association with Mark Robinson,

07:38Donald Trump may also face backlash from voters in North Carolina.

07:43This could lead to a boost for Kamala Harris in the state.

07:46Given these factors, I predict that Kamala Harris will win North Carolina by a very slim margin.

07:52Next, we move on to the state of Nevada.

07:55Polling averages show Kamala Harris leading by 0.7% in Nevada.

08:00In the last few elections, Nevada has consistently voted for the Democratic candidate,

08:06with margins of 2.4% in both 2016 and 2020.

08:10Harris's lead in Nevada is expected to grow as her national polling numbers improve,

08:15so I will give Nevada to her by a slight margin.

08:18Now, let's take a look at the state of Arizona.

08:21According to the latest polling averages,

08:23Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by 0.8% in Arizona.

08:29In 2020, Arizona flipped blue for the first time in many election cycles,

08:34with Biden winning the state by a margin of 0.2%.

08:38However, Harris is performing worse than Biden among Hispanic and Black voters,

08:44while doing slightly better among white voters.

08:46This shift in demographics has caused some sun-belt states, like Arizona,

08:51to lean more toward the Republicans, while rust-belt states have been shifting to the left.

08:56Despite these changes, Arizona remains highly competitive.

09:00But for now, Donald Trump holds a slight lead in the latest polling data.

09:05With Arizona accounted for, Kamala Harris now has 263 electoral votes,

09:11while Donald Trump has 246 as we move on to the final two states in the 2024 election.

09:17We will begin with Wisconsin.

09:19Polling averages show Kamala Harris leading by 2.3% in Wisconsin,

09:24which is a solid lead that is expected to grow.

09:27Like we discussed earlier, the demographics of the rust-belt states,

09:31including Wisconsin, favor Kamala Harris because she is performing well among white voters.

09:37This gives her an advantage in states like Wisconsin, where the population is primarily white.

09:43Given these factors, I will give Wisconsin to Kamala Harris,

09:47which pushes her over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the 2024 presidential election.

09:53Finally, we arrive at the most important state of the 2024 election, Pennsylvania.

09:59Polling averages show Kamala Harris leading by 1.3% in Pennsylvania,

10:04which, like Wisconsin, is another rust-belt state where the demographics favor her.

10:09One of the major issues in Pennsylvania is fracking,

10:13and Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris for her changing stance on the issue.

10:17However, during the presidential debates,

10:20Harris made it clear that she would not ban fracking if elected president,

10:24which helped her gain support in Pennsylvania.

10:26Harris also performed well in the debate, which is expected to give her a boost in the state.

10:32Due to these factors, I will give Pennsylvania to Kamala Harris by a slim margin,

10:37bringing her final electoral total to 292 votes, while Donald Trump remains at 246 votes.

10:46If you made it this far, please subscribe to my channel for more election-related content,

10:51including predictions, polls, and real-time updates as we get closer to Election Day.

10:56Stay tuned for more videos.

2024 Election Map Based On FRESH Polling Averages In ALL STATES

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended