The most recent polling data is in, and Kamala Harris is leading the race against Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential election! As the polls reveal, Harris is poised to secure key swing states and dominate the electoral map. In this video, we’ll break down the state-by-state analysis, discuss the impact on the 2024 election, and what this could mean for both candidates. Tune in for the latest election forecast and stay informed!
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00:00Hey everyone, welcome back to another video. I hope you're all doing well.
00:04Today we're going to delve into something pretty interesting, Donald Trump's base of support for the 2024 election.
00:11Specifically, we'll be focusing on the floor, or more accurately, the ceiling of his support.
00:17You might have heard about this concept before, where there's a limit to how much support a candidate can get in an election.
00:23And in Trump's case, it seems like we've hit that ceiling.
00:26But what makes this even more fascinating is the new data we have from a recent nationwide popular vote poll.
00:32This poll was conducted by Morning Consult, a polling company that some consider a bit unreliable.
00:38It has a C rating after all, but this time, the sample size was enormous.
00:43We're talking about over 11,000 respondents, which gives us a lot of data to chew on.
00:48And what we find here is pretty significant.
00:51Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by a solid 6%.
00:54That's a substantial lead, and it would result in a decisive win for her in the Electoral College.
01:00In fact, Harris would not just cross the 270 vote threshold needed to win the presidency.
01:06She'd be well above it, potentially surpassing 300 electoral votes, which is quite impressive.
01:12Now before we get too far into the details, I want to address something right away.
01:16I know many of you might be thinking, why should we trust Morning Consult if they're not the most reliable pollsters?
01:23And honestly, that's a fair question.
01:26As I mentioned, Morning Consult is a C-rated pollster, meaning it doesn't always have the best track record.
01:32But one thing they do have going for them here is the massive sample size of this poll.
01:37Gathering responses from over 11,000 people across the country gives us a broader picture of what the electorate might be thinking.
01:45Of course, that doesn't guarantee the poll's accuracy, because sample size isn't everything.
01:50Polling methodology and the pollster's reputation matter, too.
01:54So, even though the sample size is impressive, we have to keep in mind that Morning Consult's rating could still affect the reliability of this data.
02:02That being said, the six-point lead Harris has over Trump, 51% to 45%, is worth taking a closer look at.
02:10The margin between them is notable, but what really stands out to me is Trump's 45% support.
02:17This number is crucial, because it shows us that Trump seems to have hit a ceiling in terms of his nationwide backing.
02:23It's not that Harris is pulling ahead by leaps and bounds, though she has increased her lead from 5% in their previous poll,
02:30but rather that Trump seems unable to gain much more support.
02:34Let's break this down further.
02:36When you look at the polling landscape, across all the different polls that are out there,
02:40almost every one of them gives respondents the option to say they are undecided.
02:44Pollsters don't force voters to choose between the main candidates like Trump and Harris.
02:49They'll often ask if they are undecided or leaning toward a third-party candidate.
02:54In this particular poll from Morning Consult, we see that 45% of respondents support Trump and 51% support Harris.
03:02That totals to 96%, leaving 4% who are still undecided.
03:07Now, 4% might not sound like much, but in a presidential election, that could be a huge number.
03:13It could be the deciding factor in swing states, and in such a close race, it could shift the entire outcome of the election.
03:20Looking back at previous elections, such as in 2020 and 2016, we see a trend in Trump's support that's fairly consistent.
03:28He's had a ceiling of support around 45 to 47%, and that seems to be holding true in the 2024 race as well.
03:36So why does this matter?
03:38Well, when you look at the undecided voters, those 4% who haven't made up their minds yet,
03:44they become key to predicting the outcome of the election.
03:47If the majority of these undecided voters break for Kamala Harris,
03:51it could give her a commanding lead in both the popular vote and the electoral college.
03:56Let's consider this for a moment.
03:58If Harris gains the support of those undecided voters, pushing her total to 55% of the popular vote,
04:05she would win by a 10-point margin over Trump.
04:08That would translate into a massive victory in the electoral college.
04:12She would not only win the traditionally Democratic states,
04:15but also many of the battleground states that have been closely contested in recent elections.
04:20States like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which went to Biden in 2020,
04:25would likely fall to Harris by wide margins, making them nearly safe Democratic states.
04:31Even states like Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia,
04:34three states that have shifted more Democratic in recent elections, would be strongly in her favor.
04:40Now, I know what some of you are thinking.
04:42Is it really possible for Harris to win by such a huge margin?
04:46And the answer is probably not.
04:48A 10-point shift to the left across the entire country is pretty unlikely.
04:53It's hard to imagine Harris winning Michigan by 12 points, for example,
04:57This is just a thought experiment to show what could happen if the nation were to shift dramatically to the left.
05:02Even beyond the traditional battleground states,
05:05some Republican-leaning states could also flip under this scenario.
05:09North Carolina, for example, which Trump won by just 1.3% in 2020,
05:14would likely go Democratic if Harris is winning by a 10-point margin nationally.
05:19Florida, a state that Trump carried by a little more than 3%, would also likely fall to Harris.
05:25And then we start looking at states like Texas,
05:27which has been a Republican stronghold for decades,
05:30but has shown signs of shifting leftward in recent years.
05:33If Harris is winning nationally by 10 points,
05:36Texas could become a lean Democratic state,
05:39something that would have been unthinkable even a few years ago.
05:42Ohio and Iowa, two states that have become more Republican in recent years,
05:47could also flip to Harris.
05:49Of course, none of this is going to happen exactly like this.
05:52Harris isn't going to shift the entire country 10 points to the left,
05:56as that would be a pretty extreme outcome.
05:58But even a modest shift in her favor could have a profound impact on the election,
06:02particularly in the swing states.
06:04If Harris manages to outperform Biden's 2020 numbers by even a few points,
06:09that would be monumental not just for this election,
06:12but for the political landscape going forward.
06:15And it's not just the presidential race that would be affected by a strong showing from Harris.
06:20Down-ballot races like those for the Senate, House,
06:23and even gubernatorial seats would also feel the impact.
06:26If Harris wins by a wide margin,
06:28it would likely help Democratic candidates in tight Senate races
06:32and could even flip control of state legislatures in key states.
06:36The ripple effect of a strong performance at the top of the ticket can't be underestimated.
06:40But let's get back to the core topic of this video,
06:43which is Trump's ceiling of support.
06:45In 2016, Trump won 46.1% of the popular vote.
06:50That was enough to secure him an Electoral College victory,
06:54even though he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
06:57Part of the reason Trump was able to win in 2016,
07:01despite his low popular vote total,
07:03was the presence of third-party candidates.
07:05A significant percentage of voters, around 4 or 5%,
07:10voted for third-party candidates,
07:12which meant that neither Trump nor Clinton managed to break 50%.
07:16In 2020, Trump's share of the popular vote increased slightly to 46.8%.
07:22That's a gain of 0.7%,
07:25which makes sense given that fewer third-party candidates were prominent in that election.
07:29But even with that slight improvement,
07:31Trump still lost the election to Joe Biden.
07:34Now, heading into 2024,
07:36Trump's polling numbers are even lower.
07:39In this latest poll, he's sitting at 45.9%,
07:42which is his lowest showing yet.
07:44This is expected, though,
07:46because we're looking at polling data that includes undecided voters.
07:50In 2024, there doesn't seem to be a significant third-party candidate on the horizon,
07:55which means we're unlikely to see the same kind of split vote that we saw in 2016.
08:00Instead, undecided voters will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election.
08:06And based on Trump's ceiling of support from previous elections,
08:10it's hard to imagine him doing better than he did in 2016 or 2020.
08:15When we talk about Trump's ceiling,
08:17it's important to remember that he is, without a doubt,
08:20the most divisive figure in American politics today.
08:23I'd even go as far as to say he's the most divisive man in America.
08:28Whether we're talking about politics, pop culture, or just everyday conversations,
08:32no one divides opinions like Trump does.
08:35He's a polarizing figure, and that's part of what makes him unique in American politics.
08:40People either love him or they hate him.
08:43There's very little middle ground when it comes to Trump.
08:46This is why we don't talk about the ceilings of support for other politicians in the same way.
08:50You never hear people discussing Kamala Harris's ceiling or Joe Biden's ceiling
08:55in the same way they talk about Trump's.
08:57That's because Trump is a singular figure in American politics.
09:01His appeal is so strong with his base that it's hard to imagine him losing much of that support.
09:06But at the same time, his divisiveness makes it equally hard for him to gain new supporters.
09:12When you look at undecided voters in this election,
09:15I believe many of them are leaning toward Harris.
09:18These undecided voters are likely people who can't bring themselves to support Trump again
09:23after experiencing his presidency.
09:25They might have voted for him in 2016 or even in 2020, but now they're hesitant.
09:31I think when Election Day rolls around, most of these undecided voters will break for Harris, not Trump.
09:37If we assume that 6% of voters are undecided and most of them break for Harris,
09:42that would give her an even larger lead.
09:44Even if just 4% of those undecided voters go to Harris and 2% go to Trump,
09:49that would still give Harris a 4.6% victory,
09:53essentially matching Biden's margin of victory in 2020.
09:57And that would almost certainly translate into an Electoral College win.
10:01While I do believe this race will be close,
10:03it's entirely possible that Harris could outperform Biden's results in 2020,
10:08especially if Trump's ceiling of support holds firm at around 45% to 46%.
10:14We'll have to wait and see how the polls evolve as we get closer to Election Day,
10:19but it's certainly shaping up to be an interesting race.
10:22Thanks so much for watching this video.
10:24I hope you enjoyed it and found it informative.
10:27If you did, be sure to hit the subscribe button below so you don't miss any of my future videos.
10:32And if you have any thoughts on this topic, feel free to drop them in the comments.
10:36I'd love to hear what you think about Trump's ceiling of support
10:39and what it could mean for the 2024 election.
10:42Thanks again for watching, and I'll see you next time.
10:52Transcribed by https://otter.ai