In this video, we unveil the brand-new 2024 election map, featuring the latest polling data from every state! With key battlegrounds shifting and voter sentiment evolving, we break down how each state is leaning and what it means for the candidates as they battle for the presidency. Stay tuned for a comprehensive analysis of the newest polling averages and what it could signal for the upcoming election.
00:00As we enter the final month leading up to the 2024 presidential election,
00:04today we will be diving into the latest electoral map projections using updated polling averages from all 50 states.
00:11Before we begin, be sure to subscribe to my channel for more election content, predictions, and real-time updates on key events related to the 2024 race.
00:20We'll start by exploring who currently has the edge in this tight contest.
00:25According to the latest simulations from FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris wins 57 out of 100 times, while Donald Trump wins 42 times.
00:34This suggests that Harris holds a slight advantage.
00:37But to understand the bigger picture, we'll need to take a closer look at the individual state polls to see how the election could unfold.
00:44Next, let's shift our focus to the national polls.
00:48Currently, Kamala Harris holds a 2.8% lead nationwide.
00:53While this is a solid margin, the key question is whether this lead is substantial enough to secure a victory over Donald Trump.
01:00Conversely, for Trump, the question becomes whether the polling error is small enough for him to capture crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
01:10To find out, we need to take a closer look at each of the 50 states and analyze the latest polling averages to predict how they are likely to vote.
01:19We'll begin by identifying the solid states for each candidate.
01:23These are states expected to vote for either candidate by a margin of over 15%.
01:28For Kamala Harris, the solid states include Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia.
01:41For Donald Trump, the solid states are Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana.
02:01Next, let's move on to the likely states for each candidate.
02:04These are states where the margin is expected to be between 10% and 15%.
02:10For Kamala Harris, the likely states are New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Maine's congressional districts.
02:19Additionally, she is also likely to win Nebraska's second congressional district.
02:24In these areas, Harris holds a polling lead of approximately 10% to 15%, making them likely wins in the election.
02:32For Donald Trump, the states expected to lean in his favor by a similar margin include Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.
02:40With these likely states included, Kamala Harris reaches 226 electoral votes, while Donald Trump stands at 148 electoral votes.
02:49Now, let's move on to the lean states for each candidate.
02:52These are states where the candidates are expected to win by a margin of roughly 3% to 8%, making them competitive for both parties.
03:01For Donald Trump, Texas and Florida fall into the lean category.
03:05Although Texas has been gradually trending left in recent elections, it hasn't yet reached the point where Democrats can realistically secure a win.
03:13Florida, meanwhile, has been shifting to the right.
03:16In 2020, Biden lost Florida by 3.4%, which was a larger margin compared to Clinton's loss in 2016.
03:24On Kamala Harris's side, Michigan is expected to lean in her favor.
03:29The polling average currently shows Harris with a 1.8% lead in Michigan,
03:34and recent momentum suggests that she is likely to win the state.
03:37Some polls even have her leading by as much as 5%, which is significant for a crucial battleground like Michigan.
03:44In 2020, Biden carried Michigan by the widest margin among the three key Rust Belt states,
03:50Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, and Harris seems well-positioned to do the same.
03:56With these lean states included, Kamala Harris stands at 241 electoral votes, while Donald Trump has 219 electoral votes.
04:05Next, let's focus on the final battleground states, the ones that will ultimately determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
04:12We'll start with Georgia.
04:14Looking at the polling averages in Georgia, Donald Trump holds a narrow lead of only 0.7%.
04:21Back in 2020, Biden achieved a historic win in Georgia, flipping the state by a slim margin of just 0.2%.
04:29However, for years later, Kamala Harris does not enjoy the same level of popularity Biden had during that time.
04:36On the other hand, Trump's popularity has also taken a hit since then,
04:40particularly in the aftermath of January 6th and other significant controversies.
04:45For Georgia, voter turnout will be the deciding factor,
04:49as well as the impact of voter suppression efforts that could influence turnout in key areas.
04:54For now, though, Trump maintains a very slight edge in this critical battleground state.
05:01Now, let's take a look at North Carolina.
05:03Recently, the Republican nominee for Governor Mark Robinson has been embroiled in several scandals
05:09involving controversial comments made on various platforms.
05:13Mark Robinson has been a longtime ally of Donald Trump,
05:16having received Trump's endorsement multiple times.
05:19The two have often campaigned together for both the presidential and gubernatorial races in North Carolina.
05:25Trump has even praised Robinson,
05:27making statements such as calling him Martin Luther King Jr. on steroids and a better version of Martin Luther King.
05:33Following these scandals, Robinson's campaign has taken a significant hit,
05:38with his polling numbers falling to below 20% compared to Democratic nominee Josh Stein,
05:43given Trump's close association with Robinson.
05:46These controversies could impact how voters perceive Trump in North Carolina as well,
05:52potentially giving Kamala Harris an unexpected advantage.
05:55Considering these factors, I believe Kamala Harris could narrowly win North Carolina.
06:01Turning our attention to Nevada,
06:03Currently, Kamala Harris holds a slim lead of 1.4% in the polling averages.
06:09Nevada has been relatively consistent in recent elections,
06:12voting Democratic by a margin of 2.4% in both 2016 and 2020.
06:19While Harris's lead remains narrow at the moment,
06:21it is anticipated to grow in response to her recent surge in national polling.
06:26Given these dynamics, I'm projecting that Kamala Harris will carry Nevada by a slight margin.
06:32Now let's shift our focus to Arizona.
06:35In the latest polling averages, Donald Trump holds a small lead of 1.1%.
06:41In 2020, Arizona flipped blue for the first time in many years,
06:45with Biden securing a narrow 0.2% victory, contributing to his 306th electoral vote win over Trump.
06:53For years later, Vice President Harris is facing challenges in maintaining Biden's popularity levels,
06:59particularly among Hispanic and Black voters,
07:02where her support is lower compared to Biden four years ago.
07:05However, she is performing slightly better among white voters than Biden did,
07:10which explains why some Sunbelt states are leaning more to the right compared to the 2020 election,
07:14while states in the Rust Belt have shifted slightly to the left.
07:18Despite this, Arizona remains a closely contested battleground,
07:23though for now, Trump holds a slight edge in the latest polling.
07:27We now turn to the final two states of the 2024 election, starting with Wisconsin.
07:32In Wisconsin, Kamala Harris holds a 1.8% lead according to the latest polling averages.
07:38While this is a solid margin, it's expected to grow further due to various other factors.
07:44As we discussed earlier, the Rust Belt, which includes Wisconsin,
07:48is predominantly made up of white voters, in contrast to the Sunbelt,
07:52where Hispanic and Black voters represent a larger share of the electorate.
07:56Harris is performing better among white voters compared to Hispanic and Black voters,
08:01which helps explain her current lead in Wisconsin.
08:04Based on these underlying factors, I project Wisconsin will go to Kamala Harris,
08:09pushing her over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
08:14Now for the final state, Pennsylvania, also known as the Keystone State,
08:19and arguably the most crucial state in the 2024 election.
08:22The polling averages in Pennsylvania show Kamala Harris leading by 0.8%.
08:28As another key Rust Belt state, the demographics here favor Harris,
08:32who has gained traction among white voters.
08:35One of the central issues in Pennsylvania is fracking,
08:38and Donald Trump has targeted Harris over her perceived shifts on the issue over the years.
08:44However, during the presidential debate, Harris clarified that she would not ban
08:48fracking if elected, which helped to neutralize Trump's attacks.
08:52Furthermore, Harris delivered a strong debate performance,
08:56while Trump made several sloppy remarks that may cost him voter support in the state.
09:01Although Harris's lead in Pennsylvania is modest, considering these factors,
09:05I believe she will carry the state by a narrow margin.
09:08This brings the final electoral count to 292 for Kamala Harris and 246 for Donald Trump.
09:15If you've made it this far, please remember to subscribe for more election content
09:19and predictions as we approach the 2024 election.
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