Top Picks for Grade Three Jockey Club Derby Invitational

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00:00So let's move on out there and let's take a look at race number five on Saturday, October

00:07the 5th.

00:08In this one, it's the grade three Jockey Club Derby Invitational.

00:12We're looking at Carson's run, who is probably one of the top contenders in here.

00:16Yeah, Carson's run should be the favorite.

00:19He's won half of his lifetime starts and only been out of first or second place twice with

00:24a total lifetime earning of 1.3 million.

00:26So he's a millionaire.

00:28He's also a deep closer, so he should be coming fast at the end of the race.

00:33Time for me.

00:34Yes, as you can see, does project him to win.

00:37And I do agree that it's the likely outcome of price that I like in here, though, is the

00:41number two Dashman at eight to one or plus 800 odds, who is also coming off of two consecutive

00:47wins.

00:48I'm with you on Dashman.

00:49I think could sit a really nice trip down on the inside, save some ground.

00:52Let's flip to race number six.

00:53That's the next one.

00:54The grade three Belmont turf sprint for a race like this, where they usually go very

01:00fast early on.

01:01It doesn't seem like there's that many in here whose running style is very fast early.

01:06A lot of these horses are more mid pack to deeper closers, which you don't usually see

01:11for a turf sprint like this.

01:13Because of that, I think you want to look at a horse like the nine.

01:16Nothing better.

01:17He's versatile, but he's one of the quicker horses.

01:20If you look at the time form U.S. pace projector, they have him sitting second.

01:23They have him actually winning the race there, and I think he's probably the classiest of

01:28the speed.

01:29He's proven himself against other really fast horses.

01:32And with the outside draw, I think that will give them some options.

01:36So I picked nothing better on top in here.

01:39If you're looking for a couple others to include, the two mischievous angel is a really sharp

01:44up and coming horse.

01:46Determined Kingdom is one who we see underneath that could also be flashing some speed.

01:50And maybe the eight Algon is a horse who you and I talked about a few weeks back, Alexa.

01:55But we'll move to our next race, the seventh race.

01:58And what we have to mention is one of the horses who would have been a major player

02:03in this race and probably in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

02:07She's out.

02:08Senza Parole was the morning line favorite in the frisette, and she will not be running.

02:12She came down with a physical issue, which is a bummer because sky's the limit for her.

02:17Yeah, it really is a shame.

02:18And I've heard she's out the rest of the year, so that sucks.

02:22But it did make this race a whole lot more interesting because she was the big favorite

02:27in here.

02:28And it's just really opened up and become an extremely competitive race.

02:32Now that she's out, I like the two, the Queen's MG.

02:36And we don't actually have the graphic for this race.

02:38So that's why you're not seeing that on the screen.

02:42But the two, the Queen's MG had a really successful summer at Saratoga.

02:46She's won three out of her five lifetime starts and has won over the Keeneland Course

02:51before.

02:52Her last out was bad, but it was muddy.

02:55So I can throw that out.

02:56A lot of horses don't like when there's mud in their face, understandably.

03:00She'll be stretching out longer than she's ever gone, and it'll be an interesting test

03:05for her.

03:06So based on her performance in the Adirondack, I think she can handle the distance.

03:09That is my selection.

03:10A couple others to keep an eye on, the three, Pondering, and a place where Mike likes to

03:15go, the Paradise City.

03:16Take me down to that Paradise City.

03:18A couple others who probably are going to be shorter prices.

03:22But as you pointed out, the race is way more competitive and evenly matched now without

03:25Senza Parole.

03:27I'll finish things up in the grade one Champagne.

03:29And just like we were talking about with the Breeders Futurity, what's so exciting about

03:33this race is the future.

03:35You think about horses who could be a future Kentucky Derby winner.

03:39In this race last year, fierceness was in the Champagne.

03:43Fierceness didn't really run well, but this year he's won some big races.

03:47We just saw him recently win the Travers.

03:49So who could be a future star that we see in this race?

03:53Maybe it is Chancellor McPatrick, who's already a grade one winner.

03:57What's kind of intriguing about him, though, he hasn't been very fast in his two races.

04:01He's had a little bit of trouble at the start, and then in the second start, he hit the gate.

04:05But even after that, he doesn't seem like he's very quick early.

04:09He does take a little while to get going.

04:11But when he does get going, he has a big turn of foot.

04:15He builds up that momentum and he actually defeated Ferocious, the horse who we had just

04:20talked about in the preview in segment one of the Breeders Futurity.

04:24So Chancellor McPatrick, probably the one they'll all have to hold off.

04:27I do think the five uncaged is a horse who might be able to sit a little closer and get

04:32the jump on Chancellor McPatrick.

04:34If the 10 has to come from way out of it, the five might be able to sit in the middle

04:38of the pack and not have to deal with as much traffic.

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