Gubernur Bank Indonesia, Perry Warjiyo, mengungkapkan sejumlah alasan pemangkasan suku bunga acuan pada RDG BI periode September 2024. Salah satu alasan yang disebut Gubernur BI yakni arah kebijakan suku bunga Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat atau The Federal Reserve yang dinilai sudah lebih jelas.
00:10revealed a number of reasons for the abolition of the Bunga Acuan tribe
00:13in the September 2024 RDGBI period.
00:16One of the reasons mentioned by the Governor-General
00:18is the direction of the policy of the Central American Bunga Bank
00:22or the Federal Reserve, which has been evaluated more clearly.
00:25Indonesia's Bank of Central America
00:28The Bank of Indonesia lowered the Bunga Acuan tribe by 25 basis points to 6%.
00:34This decision is beyond the expectation of the number of economists
00:37who predict that the BA will still maintain the Bunga Acuan tribe at 6.25%.
00:43The number of economists projecting that the BA will still wait for the decision
00:46on the direction of the policy of the Central American Bunga Bank.
00:50Before the abolition of the BI rate, where the debate was held,
00:53announced the decision of the newest Bunga tribe
00:55on September 19, 2024, the day of the Indonesian time.
01:01Indonesia's Governor-General, Perry Wardjo, said
01:03the abolition of the Bunga Acuan tribe BI moment is correct.
01:06According to him, there are several reasons why the BI does not need to wait for the debate
01:10to lower the BI rate,
01:11including the direction of the policy of the Bunga Acuan tribe debate
01:14has been evaluated more clearly.
01:16The first consideration is what we often say from the month of April,
01:22which is global,
01:25especially the clarification of the direction of lowering the FED fund rate,
01:31when, when, and how big it is.
01:36Because it has an impact on the exchange rate
01:41as well as other macroeconomic impacts, including inflation, economic growth.
01:47Well, if our friends have experienced it,
01:51we once said that the FED fund rate did not go down this year.
01:56Do you remember?
01:57Then in the next REG, it went down once in December.
02:02Do you remember?
02:04Yes.
02:04Then last month, it went down twice this year.
02:08Yes, starting in September and possibly in December.
02:13Another reason why the Bank of Indonesia raises the Bunga Acuan tribe as mentioned by the BI Governor
02:18is that it needs to promote the efforts of national economic growth
02:22and also as an effort to boost the distribution of bank loans.
02:26The coverage team, IDX Channel.
02:33Yes, this time we will review the decision of the Bank of Indonesia
02:36regarding the Bunga Acuan tribe or the BI rate in the RDGBI period of September 2024,
02:41where the Bank of Indonesia finally decided to cut the Bunga Acuan tribe by 25 basis points.
02:46The Indonesian Governor, Perry Warjo, said that the Bunga Acuan tribe was cut at the right time,
02:52where according to him, there are several reasons why the BI does not need to wait for the FED to lower the BI rate.
02:58First, the direction of the Bunga Acuan tribe policy is already more clear.
03:03Based on the reading of the Bank of Indonesia,
03:06the FED will lower the Bunga Acuan tribe by three times in the rest of 2024,
03:12where monetary policy easing will begin in September.
03:17The reason is that the inflation rate of the United States is increasing rapidly
03:20and approaching the long-term target of 2% annually.
03:24And based on the latest data, FOMC September 2024,
03:28which was just launched last night,
03:31the FED finally decided to cut the Bunga Acuan tribe by 50 basis points.
03:37To further clarify the direction of the FED policy,
03:40the Bank of Indonesia stated that the yield of US government debt in the past two years has decreased.
03:47This is what then triggered the weakening of the US dollar index,
03:51because foreign investors began to switch from the US financial market
03:55to the developing national financial market, including Indonesia,
03:59with a more attractive yield level.
04:02The weakening of the US dollar index is the second reason
04:05for the Bank of Indonesia to cut the Bunga Acuan tribe.
04:08Because with the decreasing US dollar index,
04:11the value of the currency exchange is getting stronger.
04:13Meanwhile, the third reason is that the rate of inflation projected remains stable.
04:18The Bank of Indonesia believes that even though the Bunga Acuan tribe is cut,
04:22the rate of inflation will remain stable at the 1.5% to 3.5% target
04:28annually in 2024 and 2025.
04:33And then, the Bunga Acuan tribe will also be convinced
04:36to cut the national bank loan.
04:40What is the optimism of the Bank of Indonesia about this?
04:43Let's take a look at the information.
04:46BANK OF INDONESIA OPTIMISTICS
04:50The Bank of Indonesia is optimistic that the bank loan will continue to grow
04:55although a little late in August 2024.
05:01The growth of the bank loan in August was 11.40% year-on-year,
05:06less than July's performance of 12.40%.
05:10Nevertheless, the Bank of Indonesia states that the credit growth remains at a strong level
05:15and is believed to continue with a strong growth rate of 10% to 12%.
05:24If we look at the industry,
05:27the total credit loan has reached 51% of the bank's business plan.
05:36So, it's quite big.
05:40And if we look at the future,
05:46first, the GDP growth rate is still 7%.
05:50Second, the liquid assets owned by the bank are still quite large.
05:58AL over DPK is still 25%.
06:01It means that the liquid assets of SBN and SRB are still quite large.
06:06Third, the government's fiscal expansion is usually large in the fourth quarter.
06:12So, there is a potential that the GDP will also increase.
06:17The optimism of the growth of the Bank of Indonesia is supported by a number of indicators.
06:23The first indicator is that the growth of the third party's funds is still quite high,
06:27which is 7% year-on-year.
06:29The second is that the liquid assets owned by the bank are still quite large,
06:32where the ratio of liquid assets to third party funds is as high as 25.37%.
06:48The Bank of Indonesia's decision to cut the Acuan Flower Tribe,
06:51one of them is to cut the distribution of bank loans.
06:54With a lower level of the flower tribe,
06:56BI hopes that the bank will be more active to implement its intermediary functions.
07:02BI also ensures that the credit growth remains at a strong level
07:06and is believed to continue the strong growth trend of 10% to 12% in 2024.
07:13The optimism is supported by a number of indicators,
07:16namely the growth of the third party's funds, which is still quite high,
07:20the liquid assets owned by the bank, which is also still quite large,
07:23and also the possibility of fiscal expansion by the government.
07:27The Bank of Indonesia said that the government usually does fiscal expansion in the fourth quarter,
07:33and this will push for the accumulation of bank loans,
07:36which can finally support the distribution of credit from the supply side.
07:40Meanwhile, the other reason is still the opening of funding from non-bank loans.
07:46And fifth, the cut of the BI or BI Rate Acuan Flower Tribe,
07:49which fell by 25 basis points, to 6%.
07:54This decrease is believed to increase credit demands,
07:57including pushing for easier fund payments.
08:00BI also noted that the ratio of bank loans in July 2024 was relatively strong,
08:06which was recorded high at 26.56%,
08:10so it was able to absorb risks and support the growth of credit.
08:14Meanwhile, the problematic credit ratio or NPL per bank in July 2024 was kept low,
08:20at 2.27% in Bruto and 0.79% in NETO.
08:26Moving on to the latest BI decision, which is also said to boost the national economy.
08:32So how high is the economic growth that is likely to be achieved this year?
08:36Let's take a look at the information.
08:41The Bank of Indonesia estimated economic growth in 2024 was in the range of 4.7% to 5.5%,
08:49with the midpoint at level 5.1%.
08:52The optimism of the Bank of Indonesia emerged,
08:55as the economic growth of Indonesia showed positive performance.
09:00The Bank of Indonesia sees investment continues to grow,
09:02especially construction investment in line with the phase of the IKN operational finalization
09:07and the completion of various national strategic projects.
09:10Household consumption is also maintained, especially for the upper middle class.
09:14Non-MEGAS exports are still good, so it continues to support economic growth.
09:19In addition, government spending is expected to increase at the end of the year.
09:23It is expected to be able to support domestic demand.
09:27The Bank of Indonesia estimated economic growth in 2024 was in the range of 4.7% to 5.5%,
09:41with the midpoint at level 5.1%.
09:47In the future, various efforts need to be continued to push Indonesia's economic growth to be higher,
09:58both from the demand side and from the supply side.
10:05The Bank of Indonesia released various current indicators, including the results of the Bank of Indonesia survey,
10:10showing that economic activity in 2023-2024 remains good,
10:14as evidenced by high consumer confidence, positive market share,
10:18as well as increased capital imports and cement sales.
10:28From the demand side, the Bank of Indonesia will continue to strengthen policies,
10:32both monetary, macro-prudential, and payment systems,
10:36to continue to push economic growth to be higher.
10:40From the supply side, structural reform policies need to be strengthened
10:45to increase productivity and strengthen the structure of economic growth,
10:50including the economic sector that can absorb labor and has high added value.
10:55In addition to economic growth, the Bank of Indonesia is also confident that the inflation trend will remain low and maintained in the range of 2.5% plus or minus 1%.
11:04In August 2024, the consumer price index was recorded lowest in all components,
11:09reaching 2.12% year-on-year.
11:12The total inflation was recorded at 2.02%.
11:16The total inflation is expected to be maintained,
11:18according to the expected inflation in the target,
11:22its economic capacity is still large and can respond to domestic demands,
11:26imported inflation under control,
11:28in line with the policy of stabilizing the value of Indonesian Rupiah,
11:32as well as the positive impact of the development of digitalization.
11:35In the future, the Bank of Indonesia will continue to cherish the space for the decline of the policy flow,
11:39in line with the inflation trend that remains low,
11:42the value of the Rupiah exchange that is stable and tends to strengthen,
11:45as well as economic growth that needs to continue to be pushed to be higher.
11:49Yes, that analysis is related to the decision of the Bank of Indonesia in the latest RDG in the September 2024 period,
11:56which decided to cut the flow rate and also provide the latest assessment
12:01related to the condition of the national economy,
12:03and we hope that the monetary policy that has just been taken by the Bank of Indonesia,
12:06this can be a driving force for growth,
12:08both for the financial industry or for the national economy,
12:12and of course the people can benefit from the reduction in the rate of inflation carried out by the Central Bank.
12:17And if we have enough information in this segment,
12:20make sure you are still with us in IDX First Session Closing.
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