00:00There are still a couple of Australian meatworks which remain locked out of China, but aside
00:07from that, the only real remaining trade barrier is the one that lobsters face.
00:13Around 19 of the 20 billion or so in trade that was blocked by China has now resumed
00:18once again, in particular those exports of wine and barley that have now had the tariffs
00:24removed and a host of other industries.
00:26So its mission almost accomplished, but lobsters remain a bit of a painful irritant because
00:32despite the fact that the Trade Minister Don Farrell, the fact that he said three months
00:38ago that these were on the brink of being lifted, they remain stubbornly in place.
00:42Now China's customs agency has been in discussions with Australia's Department of Agriculture
00:49over this, so there are still talks ongoing, but as of now, the industry remains on the
00:55outer.
00:56Are there any theories as to why the restrictions remain?
01:00There are, but it's difficult to say which of them are true.
01:03Now on the one hand, this might just be explained by bureaucratic delays, so that's one plausible
01:07explanation for what's happening, but people who watch the relationship between Australia
01:11and China closely suspect that something else might be going on.
01:15Now one theory that's doing the rounds is that China is looking for a quid pro quo.
01:19Now for example, might China be angling for Australia to drop some of its anti-dumping
01:24duties that it's got on a host of Chinese products?
01:27We've known for a long time that this is a source of frustration for China.
01:30It would like some of these duties removed.
01:32So is China waiting or angling for that to happen before it lifts this ban on lobsters?
01:38We don't know for sure, Ros, but the fact that it's now been so long and the fact that
01:43lobsters remain on the outer and effectively locked out of China, except for the lobsters
01:49that managed to sneak through on the so-called grey market, it does seem to indicate that
01:53something is going on.
01:55Exactly what it is, is really difficult to say.
01:57So what does this mean for the industry?
02:00Look it means that the industry is still grappling with really low prices, or at least much lower
02:04than they had back in 2018 and 19 and 20 before the live lobsters were effectively blocked.
02:11Now as I mentioned, some lobsters are in fact getting through to China, but they're getting
02:15through via third parties and grey channels, and so middlemen and women are taking a large
02:19amount of the money there.
02:21And you don't have those really sky-high prices that the industry enjoyed back around that
02:262018 mark, when they could export directly to China.
02:30And unlike other industries, there aren't really any markets that can really approximate
02:34the Chinese market if you're looking to substitute.
02:36Yes, they've managed to increase exports to other markets, including Vietnam and to Europe,
02:41but there simply isn't the appetite or the price there.
02:44So that means that they're grappling with increasing overheads, and a substantially
02:48lower price.
02:50Now they are managing to diversify, but it's slow and difficult work.
02:54So a lot of people in the industry are really quite disappointed that this ban remains.
02:59They're hoping it might be lifted soon, but as I mentioned, there's still an awful lot
03:03of opacity around this, and it's really difficult to say if or when that might actually happen.
Comments