00:00Well, here is the status of this tropical rainstorm at this point.
00:04We're calling it a tropical rainstorm.
00:05We expect this to probably become a tropical storm the first of the season
00:09if it organizes, if the center of the storm wanders just far enough off the Texas coast,
00:14which it probably will.
00:16And again, we're very concerned about the flooding with this system in the next few days.
00:20We've already seen some significant flooding in central Texas as the trough set in.
00:24And you'll notice there is some wind shear.
00:26The deep purple is where we have stronger wind shear.
00:28But this will be interacting with a trough as the system drifts into the zone of more limited wind shear
00:35near the Texas coast.
00:36But overall, the trough that may help to fuel it is actually inflicting a little bit of wind shear in
00:41this part of the Gulf.
00:42Water temps are warm enough.
00:44We often look at 79 to 80 degrees as kind of the minimum entry point for water warm enough to
00:50sustain and strengthen tropical systems.
00:51We're all in the low to mid, mainly low 80s here in the Western Caribbean and into the Gulf.
00:55And here you can see that overall we expect the center of the storm to drift barely off the Texas
01:02coast.
01:02Not far from the coast, but close to it and just over the water.
01:06And as that center of circulation likely meanders just a few miles, maybe a couple dozen miles offshore,
01:12we'll likely see the center of this become more cohesive and more well-defined.
01:16And we expect to see landfall as a tropical storm somewhere between Cameron Parish and maybe into the Beaumont-Port
01:22Arthur area around 9 p.m. on Wednesday.
01:25So drenching rainfall tied to this developing tropical storm most likely on Wednesday.
01:30Let's take a look at this here with future radar zooming down into the area.
01:34And there you can see the center of circulation.
01:35A little ambiguous, but it would be out there very close to the Matagorda Bay, if not east of there.
01:40A lot of the rain would be on the east side of the circulation, driving some of that heavy rain
01:45up into parts of Louisiana and then into the central Gulf Coast.
01:48And this will blossom into some thunderstorms on Thursday that will bring tremendous rainfall rates,
01:53a couple of inches per hour in some spots near and north of Interstate 10.
01:57And that will be a big concern.
01:59Then the trough in relation to the severe thunderstorm threat in the Midwest,
02:04that trough will then dive in and shunt some of the moisture into Atlanta where we could actually use some
02:09of that.
02:09So this would likely become a tropical rainstorm after a period of time as a tropical storm,
02:15losing some of its wind energy here over parts of the sections of the bayous of Louisiana, southeast Texas, as
02:21a tropical rainstorm.
02:22Now, regarding the storm impacts, wind is probably not number one on the list,
02:27but that will be kind of sequentially front-loaded here in the early part of the storm's life cycle, 40
02:31to 60 mile-per-hour gusts.
02:33And that will drive a storm surge, three to six feet.
02:36One thing to keep in mind, all of Cameron Parish is under 20 feet in elevation.
02:40So this is very low-lying real estate.
02:43A three to six-foot storm surge can propagate inland farther than you might expect in parts of Louisiana.
02:48Rainfall is the big story, though, by far.
02:51Eight to 12 inches of additional rain on top of what we felt Sunday into Monday.
02:56So eight to 12 inches of additional rain from Houston, Beaumont, Port Arthur.
03:00Galveston's in there.
03:01There's Cameron Parish up to the north.
03:03We get into Lake Charles and all the way into southwestern parts of Mississippi.
03:06Huge concerns.
03:07This storm has an AccuWeather Real Impact Scale rating of one because of dangerous, destructive flooding in some areas.
03:13My name's the Hell Yellowing Guide.
03:14I'm going for you.
03:14Let me a second.
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