Ace Showdown at Wrigley: Imanaga vs. Gray in Key Matchup

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00:00We talked about the ace affair underway today at Wrigley. Shota Iminaga gets the

00:07start for Chicago. Sonny Gray on the other side for St. Louis. It's a virtual

00:12pick'em inside the friendly confines and this divisional duel. What's the play?

00:17Some of you might be saying that Sonny Gray could be getting a little bit

00:20unlucky because theoretically number one on the court over the past 60 days out

00:23of those nine pitchers today, Ben, that's Sonny Gray. An XFIT minus number of 70.

00:28An ERA that's close to five, but an XFIT number of 2.82. Now let's go back to

00:33June 29th here for Sonny Gray. Four and a third innings pitch, six runs. Five

00:37innings pitch, five runs against the Nationals a week later versus the Cubs.

00:41Seven innings pitch, three earned runs. That's very good, but then bounces right

00:44back up the Braves. Seven innings pitch, which you like, five earned runs you

00:48don't. Last start against the Nationals, five innings pitch, five earned runs.

00:51Leaking oil for Sonny Gray. So if we're just being simple in this, you say, Donny,

00:55don't you just test those analytical numbers? Sometimes you have to line up

00:59equally when you're looking at both sides because Sonny Gray, even though he

01:03has those great XFIT numbers, you take a look at his true numbers. ISO power

01:07numbers against his last 105 batters combined, 237. Way too elevated for me.

01:11Weighted on base percentage. You want that number as a pitcher around 320 or

01:14less. He's sitting at 391. Give me Imanaga. Give me that slight price at

01:18home. I'll take the Cubs here due to a pitcher that should be pitching much

01:22better than he is. We're just not getting the results out of Sonny Gray.