00:00So, as we know, President Biden's major problem, the thing that really made him leave the race
00:07was his age and mental acuity.
00:10Voters did not feel good about that.
00:11Kamala Harris is 20 years younger than him, so she doesn't inherit that problem.
00:15But what you're saying is she inherits the problems of the administration, like the record
00:22on immigration and like the economy.
00:24So she has that wrath around her.
00:27Republicans can say, hey, this is essentially Biden Jr.
00:31Absolutely.
00:32And you notice that within minutes of the announcement, a pro-Trump super PAC had an
00:40attack ad out on Kamala Harris that underscored this specific point and that said that she
00:46owns all of the policy decisions of the administration and some of the big failures like immigration.
00:54You also have to bear in mind that in a previous poll that we conducted together about a month
00:58ago, we asked voters of their expectation, did they think that Biden would be able to
01:04complete a second term?
01:07And if not, when did they expect Kamala Harris to step in and take over for Biden?
01:13A majority expected her to step in and take over for Biden within the first year of the
01:18second Biden administration.
01:20And then the numbers grew significantly from there on.
01:24So a lot of voters were also factoring in the fact that a vote for Biden was to a very
01:30large extent also a vote for Kamala Harris.
01:35And based on what I'm seeing right now, the fundamentals are stacked up at a disadvantage
01:44for her.
01:45We'll see whether or not this momentum after the announcement changes anything in a sustained
01:52basis or not.
01:53But based on the numbers that we have, it's too early to tell.
01:57And what we're seeing clearly is significant traction from Trump and the Republican, which
02:03is really also translating in the generic ballot and downrange.
02:10The GOP in our poll since the convention finished has also doubled its lead in the generic ballot
02:19from plus two to now plus five.
02:22This is a question that asks, who are you willing to vote for in the upcoming election
02:29for as your congressional representative?
02:33And this validates in a great degree why Biden decided to step aside, because he was not
02:40able to help the rank and file downrange and, in fact, make the argument that he was hurting
02:47many Democrats that are running in competitive, in competitive downrange elections.
02:55So again, the picture as we as we're seeing it right now is that the post-RNC bump is
03:01real.
03:02Kamala seems to have some momentum.
03:04Can she translate it into better polling numbers?
03:07Yet to be seen.
03:09So Democrats in those battleground states, I mean, they were valid for their concerns
03:13based on this poll that a Biden on top of the ticket would affect them in their congressional
03:20races and their Senate races.
03:23Yes, essentially left and changed.
03:28The polling showed that Republicans have gained in the generic ballot.
03:33This number is much more difficult to move than the presidential horse race number, because
03:38it reflects the opinions of voters across many different districts and jurisdictions
03:44on a very wide array of potential candidates.
03:48And the fact that the generic ballot number also doubled after the Republican National
03:53Convention tells you that the Republicans landed several messaging wins with the electorate
04:00at large during that convention that don't just have to do with President Trump, but
04:05they translate downrange to the Republican rank and file.
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