00:00Rotational brownout is possible in more than 20 provinces in Luzon and Visayas this evening.
00:06The Luzon grid will be put on a red alert today.
00:09The Luzon grid is now on a red alert.
00:13Is it a brownout again?
00:15That is the situation of the majority whenever the grids in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao are put under a yellow or red alert.
00:23It is a problem to consider the declining power supply in the Philippines according to the Department of Energy or DOE.
00:30In addition to this, Malampaya gas field is expected to deplete, which contributes 20% of the power supply in Luzon.
00:38What will happen if the gas deposit in Malampaya is completely depleted?
00:43Here's what you need to know.
00:45In 2002, the commercial operation of the Malampaya project started under the service contract 38.
00:55It is located 80 kilometers from the northwest of Palawan.
00:59This is the only and largest natural gas field in the country.
01:04This is where the supply of natural gas from the four power plants in Luzon comes from.
01:11According to the DOE, it has natural gas reserves of about 2.7 trillion cubic feet.
01:17So can you imagine if it is depleted?
01:20So if that happens and we have no replacement, there will be a shortage of fuel source, right?
01:26So where will you get that?
01:28And then at the same time, the demand for electricity, especially now, we can feel the demand for aluminum.
01:35So if there is a shortage, the next consequence is rising electricity prices.
01:41He is Dr. Mahalay Aravago, President and CEO of the Development Academy of the Philippines,
01:47who conducted a study on Malampaya in 2022.
01:51Natural gas is a fossil fuel energy source, which is usually composed of methane.
01:57It is processed and used as fuel by power plants to generate electricity.
02:03Compared to coal, its carbon emission is also lower than natural gas.
02:09According to the Department of Energy, in 2027, Malampaya will completely run out of natural gas.
02:16According to Prime Energy, which manages Malampaya,
02:20pressure on gas deposits in power plants will continue to drop.
02:24This will have a major effect, especially in Luzon.
02:29According to Dr. Aravago's study, 3,200 megawatts is possible to be lost in the power supply of the Philippines
02:37if a new energy source cannot be found.
02:41In April, more than 14,000 megawatts became the peak demand in Luzon.
02:47It is possible to cause more frequent rotating brownouts and blackouts,
02:52and it is also possible for electricity prices to rise even more.
02:56If the natural gas received from Malampaya is not enough,
03:01plants are forced to use more expensive liquid fuel to produce electricity.
03:07Malampaya Service Contract 38 should expire in February 2024,
03:13but last May 2023, President Bongbong Marcos signed its extension until February 2039.
03:22In addition to this, Malampaya's operation will continue,
03:26and there will also be a new exploration in the areas near here.
03:31In 2025, Prime Energy's exploration for a new gas source is scheduled to begin.
03:37The problem is, it will take 5 to 10 years before the exploration is complete.
03:43But that doesn't mean that once you explore, you will know that there really is one, right?
03:48Because it's kind of uncertain.
03:50And you also don't know how deep it is.
03:52So, the deeper, the more expensive.
03:55We don't know that yet.
03:56So, what should have happened, we know that it will run out by 2025,
04:01the exploration has already started.
04:03One of the possible alternative sources of energy is the import of liquefied natural gas or LNG.
04:11You made a liquid, the natural gas you mined to transport, that's the purpose.
04:17And then when it comes here, you won't be able to use it as a liquid form.
04:20So, you still have a regasification facility, meaning you will return it to its original state of gas.
04:26So, that's what the fuel will use to run your OCGT or Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant.
04:33But its price depends on the world market.
04:37So, it is also possible that it will emit a high current.
04:41Okay, so now, of course, when we look at LNG, we will look at the overall fuel mix.
04:49So, its advantage is less carbon emission.
04:53But this investment here in LNG somehow offsets the high investment cost.
05:04According to Dr. Ravago, the use of renewable energy in the country should also be strengthened,
05:10such as solar and wind energy.
05:12But these are more expensive, so the government needs to study and prepare to invest here.
05:19Transition to cleaner energy, not overnight.
05:22So, meaning to say, this should be a part of our economic development.
05:27So, because this waste will run out, we are already looking at the possible sources of LNG,
05:34and then we are also attracting investment in renewables.
05:38So, there is a chance that our transition will be accelerated.
05:42We should know when we will invest, when we will import more renewables.
05:48So, the role of the government is to facilitate, meaning to say,
05:53to provide an environment for investors to facilitate for them to come in.
05:58At present, a large part of the energy generation in the country is from coal-fired power plants.
06:04According to the 2023 DOE data, 43.9% of the on-grid share is coal in the power mix,
06:11while 13.4% is the share of hydropower, while 5.8% is solar energy.
06:19Oil-based and natural gas have an on-grid share of 13.2%.
06:26The DOE is urging to repurpose or retire the old coal-fired power plants
06:32for its goal to make 50% of the power mix renewable energy by 2040.
06:38The current policy does not allow the construction of a new coal power plant.
06:44But that does not mean that the existing coal power plants will be retired.
06:49So, again, the transition to cleaner technology, we are there in that aspiration.
06:54We are looking at the combination of fuels.
06:57These are coal, hydro, which will generate electricity.
07:01What is the combination of those fuels that will give the Filipinos low electricity?
07:07So, it's not one or the other.
07:09What is the combination?
07:11The good combination.
07:12That's what we are looking at.
07:14It is also necessary to pay attention to investment in infrastructures.
07:19You may have heard that we have solar in Visayas.
07:23But its capacity does not operate at its full capacity.
07:27Why?
07:28Because the investment in transmission is not simultaneous.
07:32You have electricity, you can generate electricity,
07:35but you can't deliver it to whoever needs it.
07:38So, we can't just look at the transition to cleaner energy,
07:44attract more renewable investment.
07:46If you don't have a simultaneous investment in infrastructure,
07:50there is none.
07:51As the population rises, the demand for electricity also continues to rise.
07:56Moreover, it is possible for a crisis to erupt
08:00if a new source of energy cannot be found.
08:21For more UN videos visit www.un.org
Comments