- 2 years ago
French president’s call for snap elections as he faces historic disapproval could put Le Pen’s far right party in power.
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00:00A surge in support for far-right parties in the European elections has sent tremors across
00:06the continent, none more powerful than those hitting Paris and Berlin, where the parties
00:11of both leaders were trounced by far-right opponents.
00:15My guest this week is Sandro Gozzi, outgoing member of the European Parliament in President
00:20Macron's renaissance list.
00:22How risky is Macron's decision to call snap elections in France?
00:27And will he resign if the far-right wins a majority?
00:33Sandro Gozzi, welcome to Conflict Zone.
00:37Thank you for inviting me.
00:38Are you licking your wounds this morning?
00:40Well, I mean, certainly we are not satisfied with the results, neither at European level
00:48nor at French level, but the positive issue is that we are still there.
00:55I think it's indispensable to promote our European project.
01:00Even some of President Macron's supporters are saying that his call for snap elections
01:05is a high-risk strategy.
01:08But it's worse than that, isn't it?
01:10When you call elections at the same time as you have a 65% disapproval rating, it's a
01:16leap into the dark, isn't it?
01:19Well, I mean, I don't think that we should dramatize a democratic moment.
01:26It is clear that the situation which has emerged through a vote in the European election, largely
01:34influenced by domestic issues, is that there is a need to clarify the political situation
01:40in France.
01:42Already, the National Assembly was struggling to function properly, struggling to find those
01:49concrete solutions that the French citizens are waiting for.
01:54And it would have been much worse in the light of this result, because the extreme right
02:00and extreme left would have made it even more difficult to function.
02:04So I think that certainly Emmanuel Macron takes a high risk.
02:09But first of all, it is in his nature.
02:12And secondly, it's the right way of asking to the French citizens whether they really
02:16want the extreme right in government or they want a reformer, I mean, a National Assembly
02:24which carry out reform in another way.
02:27So I think that it is time to clarify the situation.
02:31Macron told his team after the results came in, I prefer writing history rather than submitting
02:37to it.
02:38Doesn't that suggest that this is a last ditch effort to do something, anything, to regain
02:44political authority?
02:46Because the results have been quite a slap in his face, haven't they?
02:50The results, as I say, are not satisfying.
02:53Macron is the one who has been re-elected twice, beating the extreme right.
03:00It is clear that he doesn't want to submit to the events.
03:05He wants to take a political initiative.
03:08And this is one of the political initiatives which I thought it was useful to take.
03:14Because it is clear, I repeat, the French voters have shown dissatisfaction and impatience.
03:27Dissatisfaction that means that they want other solutions or more effective solutions.
03:33Impatience that they want things to happen.
03:36Neither the one, nor the other, nor effectiveness, no, I mean, fastness could be ensured by the
03:46National Assembly as it stands now.
03:49So I think that he was right to ask for a democratic choice and to do it quickly because
04:00this country cannot afford to remain a stalemate for a long time.
04:06So what you're saying basically is that he's trying to reboot a struggling presidency and
04:11a party that has had to limp along without an overall majority in Parliament since 2022.
04:17I think he's listening to the voters and the voters say we want things to happen.
04:27I think the debate during this European election is our failure.
04:31We didn't manage to keep the focus of the debate on the real European issues.
04:37It was largely dominated by purchasing power, by insecurity, by issues that belong to the
04:45national sphere and belong to the competence of the National Assembly.
04:50But what makes him think he can reach the voters in three weeks when he's had two years
04:57in power and he hasn't managed to reach them in that time?
05:00Well, I mean, first of all, we will see what those 15, 20% of voters which has decided
05:11to abstain at the European election, what they will decide to do.
05:15And secondly, he will ask to the voters whether they really want the extreme right in government
05:26to take on responsibilities or if they want to give a clear majority to his reformist
05:34project.
05:35Today, we don't have a majority of the extreme right, but we don't have even a clear majority
05:42for the presidential coalition.
05:46And this is why we are struggling and this is why the National Assembly is basically
05:50blocked.
05:51It would have been totally paralyzed after this election.
05:54It could be paralyzed again, couldn't it?
05:57It could be paralyzed again.
05:58It could be.
05:59It could be.
06:00I mean, it is the French voters who will decide.
06:03It's sort of, I mean, everybody must take on his own responsibilities.
06:08Even the voters must take on the responsibility.
06:10They are dissatisfied, they are impatient with this situation.
06:14They will have to decide whether they want to give a majority to the president or they
06:19want to give a majority to the extreme right.
06:22President Macron has three years left in office.
06:24If his party does worse than expected in the parliamentary elections, might he resign?
06:31I don't think so, because the French voters have clearly decided that they wanted him
06:37for another five years term in 2022.
06:40So I think that...
06:41Yeah, but he's damaged goods politically, isn't he?
06:45He's a deeply unpopular president.
06:47Let's face it.
06:48The French have already made their choice about the president.
06:52They must make their choice about which parliament they want.
06:56And the parliament which came out after the victory of President Macron in 2022 was a
07:02parliament where it was very difficult to legislate, very difficult to work out concrete
07:09and effective solutions.
07:10And now we will see whether on the 7th of July, the French will decide to have a much
07:16more effective National Assembly around this project.
07:22If Macron himself doesn't go, could someone in his government decide to jump ship?
07:27Well, I mean, I don't see anybody now wanting to get out of the presidential team.
07:35I think that all the leaders clearly declare that they wanted to reunite, that it is clear
07:45that the issues at stake are huge and that there is need for union in the presidential
07:51majority and for refoundation of the political process.
07:55It is clear that there is a democratic crisis and there is the need also to reform the way
08:03democracy and politics are organized.
08:05And these are certainly things that an efficient parliament with a clear majority could work
08:11on.
08:13There are social and economic answers, but there are also issues around democratic participation.
08:18I want to talk about reforms a bit later on and press you a bit on that.
08:24But I'm wondering how much murmuring there is inside President Macron's party.
08:29One of his own outgoing MPs, Emmanuel Pellerin, said everything points to the national rally
08:35winning a relative or absolute majority.
08:39So that's a pessimistic view of how this election will end up, isn't it?
08:44Well, you should ask him, you should ask Pellerin, not me.
08:47I didn't make this declaration, I didn't make this declaration, he made it.
08:53I think that the battle is absolutely open and I think that it is time, I repeat, for
09:00responsibility and for choices for everybody.
09:03It is absolutely not true that as in the European election, there was a wave in favor
09:09of the national rally.
09:11This must be confirmed at the legislative election.
09:16The issue will be completely different.
09:17Marine Le Pen and Jean-Denis Bardella will have to clearly say what their project for
09:23France is.
09:24It's very unclear to me today and I think it will be very unclear also for the French
09:30voters.
09:31But each election, it is a story apart.
09:34And I think that what we have to do is to prepare and to, I mean, do the battle in each
09:42constituency.
09:43The issues are totally open.
09:45I hope also that the so-called democratic forces will take on the responsibility before
09:52and especially after the election, because I don't think that the extreme right should
09:58rule this country.
09:59Can you see President Macron sharing power in what the French call cohabitation with
10:04a prime minister from the far right, from the national rally?
10:08I think that as any president before him, he will accept the result of the election.
10:16Any result, I mean, whatever the result will be.
10:22It has happened to Mitterrand.
10:24It has happened to Chirac.
10:25I hope it won't happen to Macron.
10:27I hope that there will be a clear majority for the president.
10:32But, I mean, he will certainly apply the constitution.
10:36Mr Godsey, to listen to some of the doom-laden pronouncements from around Europe, some people
10:41seem to be treating these results as a cataclysmic shock.
10:46But the rise of the far right is no surprise, is it?
10:49It was forecast and illustrated by polls around the EU for a very long time.
10:54So why the surprise?
10:55The scale of their victory?
10:58I think on one hand, the scale, because, I mean, on objective ground, it's very high
11:05and Marine Le Pen party is the fourth party in terms of party in the European Parliament.
11:13So certainly it is clear that there is a big victory for them.
11:19I will say that more because France is a key country for the European integration.
11:24It's not only a founding member, but there's been always the most influential country together
11:32with Germany.
11:34And it has always managed so far to block the rise of the extreme right, differently,
11:40for example, from Italy.
11:42And to see now that the extreme right could see the power in the national parliament,
11:49it is certainly a shock, not only in Paris, but around Europe.
11:54I understand it is, I think, for historical reasons and for the key role that France and
11:59especially now Emmanuel Macron has played since 2017.
12:04Let's look, if we may, at why voters have turned to the far right.
12:08So many of them, in fact.
12:09Deputy President of the EU Commission Vera Jourova said on this programme last month
12:14that centrist politicians hadn't done enough to offer an alternative to the right.
12:20The centre-right European People's Party leader Manfred Weber said part of the problem was
12:25weak leaders like Macron and Schultz who no longer had widespread public support.
12:30Those are pretty serious indictments.
12:32Do you agree with that?
12:34No, I don't agree.
12:37I don't agree with Manfred Weber when he says that Emmanuel Macron is a weak leader.
12:41And he has shown even in this very difficult and courageous decision that he can have other
12:49defaults, but certainly doesn't lack neither leadership nor courage.
12:55But he and Schultz have been polling around 16-17%.
12:59That's it.
13:00That's not much in the way of public support, is it?
13:02Well, I mean, let's consider the extraordinary historical period we are living.
13:07Let's consider that we are getting out, we got out of a pandemic.
13:13We are living in a period with the war in Ukraine, with barbarism, which has come back
13:20in the Middle East, with certainly, and France did much better than other countries in terms
13:27of fighting against inflation and keeping the purchasing power of citizens, of consumers.
13:33But still, the energy crisis has hit also this country.
13:38There is fear, there is a sentiment of fear, there is a sentiment of uncertainty around
13:44Europe.
13:45And it is a certain sentiment of fear, uncertainty, which has fueled this stream right.
13:50They offer easy to take solution, but inefficient solutions.
13:56And so this is what is benefiting, in my view, populist movement and the stream right movement
14:03around, around the country.
14:05And this is why we have to accelerate the responses, both at national, but I would say
14:10especially at European level.
14:12And from one point of view, I would expect a much more active role of the European People's
14:17Party in promoting reform at European level.
14:20Do you not think the traditional centrist parties have become just a little bit too
14:25complacent, too self-satisfied?
14:27Isn't there some truth in that?
14:30I don't, I don't recognize myself and don't recognize Renew Europe as a, as a self-satisfaction
14:38group.
14:39We have been very active, but we have been always pretty unsatisfied because we wanted
14:44to things go faster and go, and go, and go deeper in terms of reform, especially at European
14:52level.
14:53I would say that we have always shown the right sense of urgency.
14:59It is clear that we haven't, neither in the French parliament nor at the European parliament,
15:06found the allies that have shared the same sense of urgency and the same will of reforming,
15:14even if I say, I would say that we have achieved important results that are producing the right
15:20effect, obviously not fast enough for the voters in the European elections.
15:25Why is that?
15:26I mean, the EU is an organization that never stops asking people what it should be doing
15:30and holding consultations about its role.
15:33So why didn't it listen to the criticisms?
15:35Too many people were saying that they felt disenfranchised, left behind, unconsulted,
15:41and they said so.
15:42They didn't like immigration policies, the state of the economy, especially in Germany.
15:46And the far right said it would fix all the problems.
15:50It's hardly surprising then that large numbers turned to them, is it?
15:53Because those problems weren't being fixed, even after they had been signposted pretty
15:58adequately by people over and over again in the EU.
16:02Well, if you take migration, we have after nine years of discussion, negotiations, stalemate,
16:13we have managed to adopt an asylum migration pact, which gives a good part of the answers
16:21that the citizens are waiting for, because citizens want to take back control, want us
16:25to take back control on migration, to take back control on our external borders, to have
16:31more efficient, streamlined asylum procedure to be effective on the return.
16:35But there are countries that have rejected that.
16:38I mean, Hungary has rejected that.
16:39Poland has rejected the migration pact.
16:42But they are totally wrong.
16:44Poland and Hungary are totally wrong on migration since 2014, 2015.
16:49And it is not a question of extreme right or not.
16:51I mean, Donald Tusk was wrong on migration in 2015.
16:56And I mean, it's not because they are against that they are right.
16:59Finally, we have managed to adopt what a solution, which is the right solution on migration on
17:07asylum.
17:08It is clear we have adopted three months ago.
17:10Obviously, the voters didn't feel the effect, but certainly there, there is an answer.
17:16And by the way, the extreme right, when they are in the opposition, like Marine Le Pen,
17:23they vote against the solution.
17:25But when they are in government, they come on our solutions.
17:29Mr. Godsey, you have said the EU needs more democracy.
17:34Some have already asserted that these European elections prove that point.
17:38But there was nothing undemocratic about them, was there?
17:42190 million people or thereabouts got a free vote in 27 countries.
17:46No voting irregularities, no fraud, as far as we know.
17:50The system isn't undemocratic just because you don't like the result, is it?
17:55Absolutely not.
17:56The system is democratic, but must be improved.
17:58Why?
17:59Because even in this case, in these elections, we have got to elect a continental parliament.
18:08We have got much more 27 national debates, partly or mostly on domestic issues, rather
18:16than a European transnational debate on what Europe should do, shouldn't do, should do
18:23less or should do more.
18:25And I think that this is the paradox.
18:27We are the only one in the world to elect a continental parliament, but we continue
18:35to do so through 27 national debates.
18:37And this is why we propose, we have proposed the European Parliament to elect a number
18:43of members of the European Parliament voting directly the European political parties, because
18:47that would be a little instrument to provoke a major change.
18:53Well, let's have a look at some of the changes that may come as a result of the what we've
18:58seen so far and the surge of the far right.
19:02They will have significant momentum as a result of their gains in the parliament.
19:10I'm wondering how they will use it.
19:12Germany's Institute for International Affairs says European politics are going to get more
19:17polarizing, more politicized and more populist.
19:21Which policies do you think will be most affected by the changes?
19:25Well, first of all, I would say that it is important that the European Parliament confirm
19:31its pro-European majority and the numbers on our side, because if you put together the
19:37seats of renewal of the European People's Party or the Social Democrat, we got more
19:42than 400 out of 720.
19:46So I think that first, we should confirm a pro-European majority.
19:51Second, certainly the extreme right might be effective in trying to block some specific
19:59legislation that will depend mainly on the attitude on the specific bills of the European
20:05People's Party.
20:06Like the Green Deal, like the Green Deal, for instance.
20:09I would say, yeah, also, although on the Green Deal, the issue now is to find the resources
20:16to implement it.
20:17I don't think that we have still to work on the legislation.
20:21I think the strategic legislative framework is there.
20:24Now we have to focus on the resources to finance the green transition.
20:29I would say that this is the main issue.
20:31What about Ukraine?
20:32What about the assistance to Ukraine?
20:35Weapons, ammunition, cash?
20:38I mean, I hope that we will continue to take a very strong pro-Ukrainian stances.
20:50On that, within the extreme right, there is a lot of ambiguity.
20:55There's a lot of support for Moscow, isn't there, among the extreme right?
21:00So this is going to complicate the EU's assistance to Ukraine, isn't it?
21:05I don't think so, because around the table in the Council, where the government are,
21:11I would say that there is still a very large majority in favour of pursuing the support
21:17to Ukraine.
21:18Certainly, in some votes of the European Parliament, if the extreme right confirm the pro-Putin
21:23stances, that things could be more complicated.
21:27But once again, I think that we should put the support to Ukraine as the highest priority,
21:34together with defence, in the new term among the pro-European groups in the European Parliament.
21:41You've talked about the need for reform, which we've heard for years.
21:46You also want to bring in majority voting on all major issues.
21:50But the smaller countries are never going to agree to that, are they?
21:53It's a non-starter.
21:54Well, no, because in the past, we have managed to enlarge the majority voting, notwithstanding
22:02the fact that there have always been smaller countries than others in the European Union.
22:09The issue is that it is clear that even from a less big country, smaller countries, you
22:16have to make up your mind.
22:19You cannot be in favour of unifying the continent, of opening the doors to Ukraine or to Western
22:27Balkans, and at the same time, to resist to the majority voting.
22:33Because the two things are incompatible.
22:37The more we are, the more efficient must be the voting system.
22:43And also, you know, around the table in the Council, it's not that when you vote by majority,
22:52you'll impose your decision to the minority.
22:55When everybody knows that at the end of the day, we can vote by majority, everybody makes
23:00the effort to bring its contribution and to reach a conclusion.
23:06When one country knows that it can veto, it doesn't make any effort.
23:10Look at Orban with sanctions against Russia.
23:14So I think that it is in the interest, especially of the smaller countries, because big countries
23:20sometimes can do on their own.
23:22Smaller country needs certainly a more powerful and more effective union.
23:27Mr. Godsey, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, says the
23:35centre is holding.
23:37She comforts herself with that thought.
23:39But you have the two big leaders of Europe, President Macron and Chancellor Schultz of
23:45Germany, really fighting to regain some kind of momentum.
23:50Chancellor Schultz's party was beaten into third place by the Christian Democrats and
23:55the far-right AFD.
23:58Two big leaders struggling to hold on to their careers.
24:03What effect is that going to have on Europe?
24:06Well, I think that now we have the key role, the key debate will be within the European
24:14Parliament, because it is clear that in the European Parliament, we must build up this
24:20new pro-European majority.
24:23And this pro-European majority could even be in favour of Ursula von der Leyen, provided
24:29that she doesn't want, she doesn't open to the extreme right of this year, of Giorgio
24:36Meloni.
24:37And this is the key point.
24:39I think that...
24:40But it could just mean more deadlock, more delays in committee proceedings, more hold-ups.
24:49It could paralyse the European Parliament, these results, couldn't it?
24:53No, they couldn't because they don't have the numbers.
24:56But it is clear that it will depend on the responsible attitude of the three main forces.
25:01I repeat, European People's Party, Social Democrats and Renew Europe.
25:05I think that we should open also our majority to the Greens, provided that they get a more
25:11pragmatic approach on certain issues, talking especially on the Green transition.
25:18But I think that there is a possibility of having a stable and effective majority because
25:24and the good aspect of this result, there isn't the possibility of the extreme right
25:31to have a majority.
25:32So I mean, but it will depend on the attitude and on the consistent action of the three
25:38main forces.
25:39All right.
25:40Sandro Gozzi, that seems to be asking a lot.
25:43Thank you very much for being on Conflict Zone.
25:45Appreciate your time.
25:46Thank you.
25:54Thank you.
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