00:02The Middle East is at war, triggered by the U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran.
00:08Now, East Africa is facing significant economic turbulence since it relies heavily on imported petroleum.
00:16Brent crude prices have junked sharply since the airstrikes began.
00:20We anticipate an increase in the cost of fuel.
00:24But I'm also certain, as we've heard also some information from the Uganda National Oil Company,
00:30that the country has enough stock to shoulder us for some time.
00:34Kenya has assured its citizens that it has enough war reserves to last at least two months.
00:40But can the East African region cope with a prolonged war in the Middle East?
00:44Welcome to The Flipside.
00:46The Strait of Hermos is a key shipping route for oil-producing nations in the Gulf,
00:52used to transport oil and gas to East Africa and other global markets.
00:56Now, Iran has threatened to set a blaze any ship that passes through its strategic passageway.
01:03The escalating war has disrupted global petroleum supplies,
01:07leading to immediate palm price increases across Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and many other African countries.
01:15As South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa warned,
01:19the continent is already hurting from the war.
01:22So, can East Africa do anything about it?
01:25Let's not forget that a UN Commission of Inquiry has condemned the attacks by Israel and the United States on
01:32Iran,
01:32saying they violate the UN Charter.
01:35Back to East Africa.
01:36If the war continues, inflation, supply chain disruptions, and economic hardship are likely to intensify across the region.
01:44So, is it all doom and gloom?
01:47Or can the bloc cushion its citizens from the war's effect?
01:51I'm quite positive, given that our heads of state will be meeting in Arusha later this week
01:56for the East African heads of state summit.
02:01And I'm positive that part of the issue that will be discussed is going to be how to manage the
02:06shock,
02:06the logistical shock that is going to come as an effect of the conflict within the greater Middle East.
02:11This is not East Africa's war.
02:14But at such a critical moment, East African leaders must step up for their citizens,
02:19stand in solidarity, improve overland transport corridors,
02:23and accelerate the expansion of regional fuel storage.
02:26In the meantime, many remain stranded as they await evacuation.
02:30Not only Ugandans, but there are many other international citizens
02:33that are stuck in the middle of a war that they did not even prepare for,
02:38or a war where they were not even, you know, in conflict with anyone else.
02:44So I believe it is something that is really absurd and is affecting many people.
02:49While fully offsetting the cost of this war is impossible,
02:53East African leaders can blunt its impact.
02:56Kenya, for example, has proactively secured fuel supply lines
02:59and monitored stocks to prevent shortages.
03:02This helps stabilize local markets, even as global prices rise.
03:06But this alone does not reduce the cost itself.
03:09Governants can use measures like targeted subsidies for public transport,
03:14short-term tax relief on fuel imports,
03:16and tighter monetary policy to contain inflation.
03:20These tools can temporarily reduce citizens' pain.
03:23Most importantly, leaders must stand united
03:26and say no to the war in the Middle East.
03:29It is absurd, and I think countries need to start thinking about
03:33how these things affect other relations
03:37when they go into war and start speaking the language of peace.
03:42And that's the flip side.
03:43And that's the two key thing changes.
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