00:00 Thank you very much for being with us.
00:05 Vladimir Zelensky has said it's absurd NATO's delay in giving a time frame for membership
00:11 for his country.
00:12 In Vilnius, with his wife, Ukraine's president raised a flag that he brought from the Batmut
00:16 front.
00:17 He spoke in reaction to the word from the NATO summit where his country's membership
00:21 was part of the conversation, but within the parameters of the right conditions being met.
00:27 "When we applied for membership of NATO, we spoke frankly.
00:33 De facto, Ukraine is already in the alliance.
00:37 Our weapons are the weapons of the alliance.
00:39 Our values are what the alliance believes in and our defence is precisely the element
00:43 of the European formula that makes it united, free and at peace."
00:49 There were positives for Zelensky though.
00:51 The French President Emmanuel Macron announced longer range ground to air missiles.
00:55 Let's listen to Macron.
00:57 "Given the situation and the counter-offensive being conducted by Ukraine, I have decided
01:05 to increase deliveries of arms and equipment and to provide the Ukrainians with deep strike
01:12 capabilities while maintaining the clarity and coherence of our doctrine, in other words,
01:18 enabling Ukraine to defend its territory.
01:23 We have therefore decided to deliver new deep strike missiles to Ukraine."
01:31 The President of France Emmanuel Macron there.
01:33 Also, an 11-country training coalition on F-16 jets has been agreed for Ukraine, but
01:39 that issue of NATO membership remains as it has since the very start of Russia's invasion.
01:44 A sticking point.
01:46 Let's begin for some wider analysis.
01:48 Natalia Saskoria, who is Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
01:54 NATO membership is and always has been a very key request, but it's not in the picture.
01:58 Do you understand why Zelensky says it's absurd?
02:01 "Yes, I do understand.
02:03 Good evening.
02:04 Thank you for having me, first of all.
02:06 I do understand why Zelensky is so disappointed.
02:09 The Ukrainian side has been very disappointed by hearing the final result of today's summit.
02:18 And it is fair enough, to be honest, because Ukraine has been striving for NATO membership
02:24 for a long time.
02:25 They have been fighting this brutal war against Russia.
02:28 They have been using NATO weapons.
02:31 They have demonstrated that they are highly capable, adaptable to use NATO weapons.
02:38 But at the same time, NATO membership for some time for Ukraine has remained as an elephant
02:44 in the room.
02:45 And it doesn't seem like the allies are in agreement when it comes to the concrete steps
02:51 in terms of offering Ukraine a concrete membership path.
02:56 Of course, it has been announced that the membership action plan will no longer be one
03:02 of the steps towards the actual eventual membership for Ukraine.
03:09 But at the same time, it is very unclear.
03:11 And the summit communique doesn't really make much clarity when it comes to what will be
03:18 next for Ukraine and what sort of timelines we are talking about."
03:23 Can I ask you now, Nati, about these longer range missiles being promised by France?
03:29 How do you think this will change matters on the ground?
03:31 "It is very important.
03:33 France's support is very important alongside the European support in general.
03:38 And of course, we have been looking at the Ukrainian counteroffensive for some time.
03:43 They have been preparing for this offensive for a while.
03:46 And it is very important to demonstrate that even though the membership doesn't seem like
03:52 will happen anytime soon, the NATO members, the European Union, stands very clearly with
04:00 Ukraine in terms of providing them long range missiles and military supports that they need.
04:07 And they would need it for sure.
04:09 Because as we see, Russia is in this war in a long term perspective.
04:14 And I think actually what's today's, one of the most disappointing points, I believe,
04:20 from today's events is that Putin does not really believe in any sort of promises, verbal
04:27 promises.
04:28 He believes in, he only fears in the demonstration of power.
04:34 And in that sense, this is a demonstration to him that Ukraine's NATO membership is still
04:41 up in the air.
04:42 And even so, a lot of leaders today, and I have been attending the forum today, and I've
04:50 heard a lot of leaders claiming that there is no other way for Ukraine rather than the
04:57 eventual NATO membership.
04:58 But what Ukraine needs now is all the possible measures and all the possible help to actually
05:06 defeat Russia on the battlefield.
05:09 Because otherwise, I do not really believe that Putin will be deterred in any other way.
05:16 You mentioned, of course, that membership of NATO up in the air, talking of up in the
05:20 air.
05:21 So, let's ask you for jets, firepower in the air since the invasion was launched in February
05:27 last year, and now this F-16 coalition.
05:31 How do you see that changing matters?
05:34 It is very important.
05:35 It is, of course, it has been in the wish list for a long time.
05:39 And it will have a very significant, significant impact on the Ukrainian performance.
05:47 And I think the unity in that sense would be crucial in terms of helping Ukraine and
05:54 in terms of enabling Ukraine to make sure that all the gaps are being closed when it
06:00 comes to their capability gap.
06:02 So in that sense, I think that is a very important decision for sure.
06:05 And one of the positive sides that we can discuss from today's events is that there
06:11 has been a lot of promises made when it comes to the long-term military support towards
06:18 Ukraine.
06:19 And that, I think, is extremely important.
06:22 And in that sense, NATO allies have demonstrated that they have been standing and they have
06:27 been willing to stand alongside Ukraine, even though there has been, of course, some differences.
06:33 But overall, I think NATO has been quite united when it comes to the military support.
06:38 A very positive message, as you say.
06:42 Can I ask about this idea of cluster munitions being provided?
06:44 This, of course, pledged by the United States.
06:47 You're saying that if these things are used, they'll reply with a similar measure.
06:53 Are we entering a very, well, a more serious escalation phase of the counteroffensive,
06:57 do you think?
06:58 Yes, definitely.
06:59 I think we are indeed entering a more serious phase.
07:03 And we already see that Ukrainian counteroffensive has been underway.
07:09 Of course, this issue has been also one of the most divisive issues because of a lot
07:17 of countries actually having a quite firm stance with regards to this.
07:23 But at the same time, it is important to actually look at the situation on the battlefield.
07:31 And on the battlefield, we see that Russia has no limits.
07:34 Russia is willing to use any capabilities, any weapons that they have to make sure that
07:41 they advance on the battlefield.
07:43 So it is very important to take that into consideration and to make sure that Ukraine
07:49 has enough help to achieve victory on the battlefield.
07:57 Very briefly, final question, Natalia.
07:59 In some ways, you've covered this, but I'm trying to get this reinforced.
08:02 Do you think Ukraine will ever actually get it into NATO?
08:05 What's your reading of the situation?
08:08 I hope so.
08:09 And I do believe that the premise of the Bucharest summit in 2008 with regards to Georgia and
08:15 Ukraine was a mistake.
08:17 It demonstrated a weakness.
08:20 We can argue that these two countries were not ready in terms of maybe capabilities and
08:25 the defense readiness to join NATO at that time.
08:29 But 15 years have passed.
08:32 We have seen wars in Georgia, two wars fought in Ukraine.
08:36 And in that sense, it is very clear that there needs to be some serious security guarantees.
08:43 Otherwise, Russia is willing to cross any limits, cross any red lines, and to carry
08:51 on this war effort further and further.
08:54 And Ukraine will not be the final stop for Russia if they will be able to achieve any
09:01 success there.
09:02 So in that sense, NATO security guarantees is absolutely crucial for Ukraine in order
09:07 to for them to survive, really, because this is a matter of survival.
09:11 Natalia Saskaria from the Royal United Services Institute.
09:15 Thank you very much, Adee, for your time and sharing your analysis of the situation with
09:18 us here in France 24.
09:20 Thank you very much, Adee.
09:23 Nadje, ses go riem.
