00:00Well, for some analysis, we can bring in Helen Yaffe, a professor of Latin American political
00:04economy at the University of Glasgow. She joins us from Glasgow via video. Good morning,
00:09and thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us.
00:12Good morning. Thank you for inviting me.
00:15We heard the exasperation of one Havana resident in that report, but he also said it's been like
00:21this for 60 years. Just how unprecedented is the crisis facing Cuba?
00:27Well, I mean, the Cubans have put up with a blockade from the United States basically
00:34since 1962 officially, but economic warfare began much earlier than that. And they have had a period
00:43of crisis, which is comparable to this, which was obviously after the collapse of the Soviet bloc,
00:50when Cuba lost 86, 87% of its trade and investment. And at that point, Cuba was far more dependent
00:58on oil imports, mainly from the Soviet Union, mainly from Russia. And those dropped by 90% oil imports.
01:07So Cuba has, Cubans, I mean, the young man interviewed was probably not alive at that time,
01:13but Cubans have lived through a similar fuel crisis. But this scenario is quite unprecedented
01:22in the sense that, you know, as your report reflected, this is an oil embargo imposed
01:30since the end of January. And with the threat of a, you know, military intervention as well,
01:37when Trump says that he'll take Cuba one way or another. So it's a very serious situation.
01:43In one way, it's not as dire as it was in the 1990s. And that is because Cuba has been
01:51made some
01:52successes with a transition to renewable energies. So at the moment, during the daytime,
01:59they can produce almost, well, between, let's say, a third and half of their energy needs can be met
02:09through solar panels, but they lack the capacity for storage. So that means, you know, at nighttime,
02:16the blackout is more severe. And they also lack the fuel for their transport fleet. And the impact of
02:23that is really serious, because even with the donations that you showed that the global convoy
02:29has brought in, the question is, how do you get them down the long, thin island if your transport
02:36fleet is basically paralysed because of this oil embargo? Yeah, it's also just a drop in the ocean
02:42of what Cuba probably needs. How long do you think the island can go on in this situation?
02:49Well, I mean, your previous report talked about the impact of, you know, the problems with the
02:55global oil supply within two or three weeks on countries. And Cuba has now not had any oil
03:02entering the country for three months. So the situation is already dire. You have hospitals
03:08that have closed to all but emergency treatment. You have over 11,000 children whose surgeries have
03:14been postponed. Schools, universities have shut and sent students home. Workplaces are running at a
03:22minimum. So, you know, but at the same time, the Cubans have lived with this blockade, and they have
03:29lived with economic crisis. And what we're seeing is the usual pattern of people turning to their
03:36neighbours and within their communities and trying to find collective community solutions to these
03:43problems. You know, but we have to be realistic. How long can any nation survive without oil?
03:49You know, in this scenario that I've depicted, where food cannot be harvested because the tractors have no
03:56fuel, where, you know, operations aren't taking place. It's very hard to say. And I think really the answer
04:02depends on the response of the international community. The solidarity activists who've arrived for the
04:10global convoy, as you say, it's a drop in the ocean. But their presence, their mobilisation is a reflection
04:16of frustration with the international community. Cuba is a member of the United Nations. It has, you know,
04:24the cooperation agreement with the EU. And what are those entities doing to prevent Trump from weaponising
04:33starvation through this oil blockade? I mean, it's, you know, it's extremely cruel. And whatever you think
04:40about the Cuban system, and even whatever the Cubans think about their system, and policy like this,
04:47which is an attack on people's right to survive, really should not be tolerated. Who knows how long
04:54Cuba can survive if it's isolated? What we should be doing is demanding that international bodies take action.
05:01And why haven't we seen more action, do you think?
05:06Well, I mean, we saw the violent abduction of President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. And I think
05:13that was a strong message that Trump is not concerned, or his administration is not concerned,
05:19about international law. They violated so many international laws and piracy laws by previously
05:27hijacking Venezuelan oil tankers. And it's been very clear that they're threatening Cuba's allies
05:34and friends such as the president of Mexico, who has continued to send humanitarian aid, but
05:43stopped sending oil to Cuba. And so I think that really, this is just a reflection of the global
05:49political situation in which you have the US government, more or less out of control, and
05:55countries are not prepared to risk any kind of military conflict, or even the economic warfare,
06:03which Trump has shown he's very prepared to use with the leverage that they have over the
06:08international financial system and the imposition of sanctions.
06:11The Cuban government has confirmed that they are in talks with the US. Do you think there's any
06:16chance at all that this could end with some sort of deal?
06:21The Cubans have always talked to the United States. And those talks began almost as soon
06:27as the rupture. So a few months after the two countries broke off diplomatic relations in 1961,
06:33it was actually Che Guevara who first reached out to his counterpart at a regional meeting and said,
06:40you know, we should talk. So it's not such a big deal that the Cubans are talking to the US
06:46government, even under the most hostile, you know, Bush, Reagan administrations, and so on,
06:53previous Trump administration, there were talks. But the point is, the Cubans are being very clear
06:58that they are not negotiating, they are not prepared to sort of cross certain lines, right? They will not
07:05allow interference in their domestic political affairs. What they will do is, they've said they're
07:13talking to identify the differences and problems in order then as a first step towards or in order
07:19then moving on to discuss how they can, you know, find some way around those. But this is this is
07:27not
07:28the Cubans have been very clear, you showed a clip there of Miguel Diaz Canal, the president saying,
07:33you know, we are not going to accept a return to Cuba's previous state status as a sort of,
07:42you know, as pseudo republic under the control of the United States. And the Cubans have made that
07:47very clear, they're not going to accept a return to US domination of the island. And they are prepared
07:53to fight to defend their sovereignty and their right to self determination.
07:58There are reportedly two Russian oil tankers headed to Cuba. Do you think that Russia might be willing
08:05to sort of step in and confront the United States over Cuba in a way that other countries are not
08:10doing?
08:12You'd hope so. I mean, the Russians already face sanctions, right? So, you know, the threat of
08:17imposing tariffs is it doesn't have the same weight. But I believe one of those tankers has already veered off.
08:23And the other, you know, it's not certain what will happen. This is, this has happened before,
08:30several weeks ago, there was a Russian tanker, and everybody thought this would alleviate the
08:34situation. And then it veered off. So, I mean, the only way that I can see if countries are really
08:41concerned about what would happen to their tankers is they would need a collective response. And so that
08:47several countries or multiple countries would send oil tankers at the same time. I mean,
08:52it's very interesting, if you look around the world, Cuba has given support to so many governments
08:57and so many countries, among them, oil producing nations, and you just wonder why they haven't
09:03stepped up in Cuba's moment of need. All right, Helen Yaffe, thank you again so much for bringing us
09:09your analysis this morning. That's Helen Yaffe, a professor of Latin American political economy
09:13at the University of Glasgow.
09:15Helen Yaffe, Thank you very much, thank you for anything.
09:15we have conversations in Florida are people who haven't started to go.
09:15It stands and does land there somewhere calendars.
Comments