00:00 Our Doug Herbert was listening to that conference with me.
00:02 Doug, what are your takeaways from it all?
00:04 - Look, Volodymyr Zelensky clearly trying to put
00:07 a brave face on what is an unsatisfying situation for him.
00:11 And he's doing a delicate balancing act.
00:13 He is forced because he's dependent on the beneficence,
00:16 the goodwill of NATO and the support of NATO
00:18 and the individual Allied members, the 31 Allied members
00:21 to back it up in this war against Russia.
00:26 So he has to express at every turn his gratitude,
00:29 his recognition for all they've done
00:31 and all they've given so far,
00:33 while at the same time making it clear
00:34 that he is dissatisfied.
00:36 And it is a delicate balancing act
00:38 because to put it bluntly,
00:39 he doesn't wanna piss off NATO
00:40 and the Allies that have been supporting him.
00:43 And perhaps, you know, in the privacy of his own thoughts,
00:45 he would like to go a little harsher and stronger.
00:48 Look, what does Zelensky want?
00:51 He wants basically the ultimate security umbrella
00:53 and that is membership in NATO.
00:55 Why does he want membership in NATO?
00:56 Because nothing can replace that
00:58 in the sense that if he has membership in NATO,
01:01 he is privy to Article V of the NATO Charter.
01:04 Article V of the NATO Charter
01:05 stipulates an attack against one member
01:07 is an attack against all.
01:09 That is exactly why he's not getting what he wants
01:12 because the by far most influential,
01:14 most powerful member of NATO,
01:16 some would say the only member of NATO
01:17 you actually need to listen to, the United States,
01:20 has made it very clear that anything
01:23 that might at this point provoke Vladimir Putin
01:26 or lead to an escalation that could drag NATO into the war
01:30 because an attack against one is an attack against all
01:32 and possibly lead to World War III
01:35 is something that is simply a non-starter at this point.
01:38 So that is why the US,
01:39 the most powerful member in NATO, draws the line.
01:42 That is why Zelensky
01:43 isn't getting his ultimate security umbrella.
01:46 That is why Zelensky is getting the next best thing,
01:49 trying to put a brave face on these security guarantees,
01:52 a document which will essentially be going,
01:54 doing everything, crossing every,
01:56 dotting every I, crossing every T,
01:58 to essentially say to Zelensky,
02:00 you're not a member, but you're everything else but a member.
02:03 You'll sit at the table with us
02:04 at this new NATO Ukraine Council.
02:06 You'll be an equal partner with us.
02:08 It's better than what came before.
02:10 You will be getting lots of more weapons.
02:11 You'll be getting lots of new aid,
02:13 not just now, but in the long term too.
02:15 We have your back, Vladimir Zelensky,
02:18 even if we are not in a position right now
02:19 to give you what we know you want desperately,
02:22 that membership.
02:23 So a disappointed Zelensky,
02:25 but one who understands or says he understands
02:29 the reasons he's not being given that instant membership.
02:32 He still wants that roadmap, a timeline,
02:34 a path to an invitation to membership,
02:37 what he's not getting today.
02:38 I will just say that he comes across as very human,
02:41 very sort of talking very bluntly about how he feels.
02:44 He wears his feelings, his emotions on his sleeve.
02:47 And I think that that's one reason
02:49 he's able to connect so well
02:51 with so many of the people he meets with.
02:52 He's not speaking in sort of this wooden political language.
02:56 He says what he thinks, he says what he believes.
02:58 He acknowledges that he has gotten a lot from NATO,
03:02 but he's also very disappointed and he's made that clear.
03:04 - Right, so Doug, now we basically have,
03:07 I mean, I'm simplifying, but what seems like
03:08 an almost NATO membership apart in name.
03:11 What kind of reaction might this get from Russia,
03:13 from Vladimir Putin?
03:14 - We don't have to speculate.
03:16 We have seen the reaction from Russia.
03:18 Russia is doubling down, it's hunkering down.
03:21 As we heard Jen Stoltenberg, the NATO chief say,
03:24 we're talking about provoking Russia.
03:26 Russia's been provoked for years.
03:28 The very existence of NATO provokes Russia.
03:31 NATO, the West, the US writ large,
03:35 all of them are seen as a threat
03:37 to Russia's imminent national security.
03:39 Sergei Lavrov said as much that this is all signs
03:43 that the West is bent on taking down Russia,
03:47 basically defeating, vanquishing Russia.
03:50 That's all the West and the US and NATO are ever out to do,
03:53 bring down, humiliate, defeat Russia.
03:55 That is the narrative, that is the propaganda narrative
03:58 foisted on tens of millions of Russians
04:00 through weaponized state propaganda.
04:02 They believe it, Vladimir Putin believes it.
04:05 He genuinely believes that this is now an imminent threat
04:09 to Russia's national security,
04:10 and he says there will be countermeasures.
04:12 He said security guarantees from the G7 or NATO
04:15 or the US or whomever to Ukraine
04:18 is going to undermine Europe's security
04:20 and the security of the rest of the world order.
04:23 So from Russia's perspective, everything today,
04:25 no matter how much it may seem
04:27 as legitimate defense to Ukraine,
04:28 no matter how much Ukraine honestly believes
04:31 that it is in a defensive posture
04:33 against a very aggressive, belligerent Russia,
04:35 from Russia flips that narrative on its face,
04:38 turns it all around, in which NATO is the aggressor,
04:42 the US is the aggressor, the West is the aggressor,
04:45 Ukraine has no right to legitimate defense
04:47 because Ukraine is ultimately Russia,
04:49 and Russia has a right to dictate what's happening
04:51 in its quote, own backyard.
04:53 So all of this, Russia is going to predictably,
04:56 you don't have to speculate,
04:57 predictably react to by doubling down,
04:59 being more belligerent and being more aggressive.
05:01 We've seen it over the past couple of days
05:03 as the summit went on,
05:04 as a steady barrage of missiles and drones
05:06 rained down across Ukraine,
05:08 even striking on the Black Sea ports
05:10 where that Black Sea grain deal is right now in jeopardy.
05:12 So like I said, no speculation needed.
05:15 Russia has made it explicitly clear
05:17 what its reaction is and what it thinks
05:19 to all of these moves coming out of this NATO summit.
05:22 - All right, Doug, thanks so much for that.
05:23 That's France 24's international affairs commentator,
05:25 Doug Herbert, thanks.
