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US President Donald Trump has said he held private talks in the Oval Office with Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev. Trump hinted that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal involving the European Union could be near.
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00:00Joining me now is Simon Smith. He's chair of the Ukraine Forum Steering Committee at Chatham House.
00:05He was Britain's ambassador to Ukraine from 2012 to 2015.
00:08That is when Russia first invaded and annexed Crimea.
00:12It's good to have you on the program, Mr. Smith.
00:15Vladimir Putin's envoy gets a private meeting with the U.S. president.
00:21Ukrainian officials don't get a meeting at all.
00:23Is Trump treating the country that was invaded as an equal partner in these negotiations?
00:30It doesn't look that way.
00:31I think it seems to be following a pattern that we've seen before, where Trump has reached out to the
00:38Russians but ignored the Ukrainians.
00:42And I think it reflects also this sense that Trump sort of wants Putin to like him.
00:49I think he sees Russia and Putin as the big guy in this conflict, and he sees Zelensky as the
00:58little man,
00:58and Ukraine as the little country.
01:00So I think, once again, we seem to be traveling down a path where Trump's handling does not seem to
01:05be of a kind of even-handed character.
01:11The U.S. president, he says that this agreement could involve all of Europe.
01:16That raises a much bigger question.
01:18Is he negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine, or is he negotiating an entirely new security arrangement for
01:25Europe,
01:26one that gives Vladimir Putin exactly what he's been wanting?
01:30Well, it could actually be neither, because in a sense there's a smaller variant than the two you've mentioned,
01:36which is simply, not simply because it isn't simple, but is a ceasefire,
01:40which is a properly monitored, agreed, verified pause in the conflict,
01:51which might, and the idea of which, would be actually to give people time to look at the more long
01:58-range questions
01:58and to work constructively towards a longer-term cessation of hostilities in the future.
02:05I'm inclined to guess that that's what he's talking about, and I think his mention of it could involve Europe
02:12is he simply imagines that you put a ceasefire in place,
02:16you then address the question of who actually enforces the ceasefire, who monitors it,
02:20who takes action when the ceasefire is violated, and Trump's answer to that question at the moment,
02:25maybe Europeans do that.
02:27I know you have warned before that a ceasefire could actually make Ukraine less secure.
02:33Do you feel that way if we're talking about another ceasefire now?
02:38It all depends on what the ceasefire actually is and says,
02:42and I think if people are prepared to put their really hard work into a thoroughgoing ceasefire,
02:48then it could be a step on the way to a longer-term resolution of the conflict,
02:54and it could be a step in the right direction.
02:56But the key thing is, it really does, it's not just something you can pull out of a hat like
03:02a rabbit
03:03and say, here's a ceasefire, just get on with it, guys.
03:06It requires immense amount of work and detail.
03:09Trump, we know, does not like detail.
03:11He doesn't like doing the hard work on setting up agreements.
03:15He seems to be once again in that mode where he's very keen for a quick win,
03:20and trying to find the easy way of doing a ceasefire is pretty much all the time not the way
03:28to achieve a good ceasefire.
03:29And what about Vladimir Putin?
03:31Is Putin, is he negotiating seriously,
03:34or do you think maybe he's using the suffering of Ukrainians to strengthen his hand at the negotiating table?
03:41What do you think?
03:43I think that the way he's looking at things at the moment,
03:46the signals we've heard from Moscow suggest he's looking at this winter as a real opportunity to grind Ukraine down.
03:54The Ukrainians themselves are looking ahead to the winter with some degree of apprehension,
04:02and it's going to be a hard winter,
04:04and I think Putin has every intention to make it harder.
04:08So it wouldn't surprise me at all if he is actually quite a difficult customer for Trump
04:14in persuading him to sit down and talk about a ceasefire, let alone a larger deal than that.
04:21I know that you recently told the British Parliament that the United States could be, at best,
04:28an unreliable partner and, at worst, hostile to Britain's objectives concerning Russia.
04:34I mean, that's an extraordinary assessment from a former British ambassador.
04:38Have we now reached the point where America is working against Europe's security interests?
04:45I don't think we've reached that point yet,
04:47and I think it is extremely difficult, given the way that President Trump acts,
04:54I think it's extremely difficult to sort of put your finger on a point that says,
04:58that is a key turning point,
05:00that is a very important and irreversible change of direction.
05:05Trump is unpredictable.
05:07He has also had his differences with Putin.
05:11He reacts in an extremely personal way, which, again, adds to the unpredictability.
05:17And I think that, however, to come back to your main question there,
05:22I think that what we've just seen in the midterm elections,
05:26in my view, have to some extent allowed those risks to recede.
05:31I chose my words carefully when I said that we had to look at the possibility
05:37that the United States was not just sort of disengaging from the alliance
05:44and from an allied posture with countries in Europe,
05:49but that it might actually work against things that were in the interest of European security.
05:55I think we've stepped maybe a modest pace back from that as a result of the midterm elections.
06:02But I stand by what I said, which is to say,
06:06if you're thinking about what might happen in the future,
06:10don't discount that possibility.
06:13You were Britain's ambassador in Kiev when Russia seized Crimea back in 2014.
06:19You witnessed the beginning of this conflict firsthand.
06:24Looking back, what was the biggest mistake that the West made in dealing with Putin?
06:29And do you see Donald Trump making the same mistakes today?
06:34Well, I think one of the mistakes that the, certainly that the Europeans,
06:41I mean, I think the transatlantic community as a whole made,
06:44was actually not to step in hard enough.
06:48I don't, I'm not one of those people who says that the, you know,
06:51in a sense, the only language Russia would have understood at that time
06:54would have been some kind of military intervention.
06:59But I do think that we were slow getting our act together
07:04in terms of demonstrating the reach of the sanctions
07:09that we had the capacity to apply on Russia.
07:12And my memory tells me that 2014 was a sort of incremental progress.
07:18I did feel that the British government was actually one of the countries
07:22arguing more hard for decisive sanctions.
07:28But I think we should have been quicker at that point.
07:30Trump seems to be making a completely different mistake,
07:33which is threatening to give Putin everything he wants.
07:37Mr. Smith, unfortunately, we're out of time,
07:38but we appreciate you taking the time to talk with us
07:40and to share your insights with us tonight.
07:44Thank you very much.
07:46Let's bring in Domitila Sagrimoso here.
07:48She's a senior lecturer in security and development
07:51at King's College London.
07:53Good to see you.
07:54Now, President Trump has been pushing for an end
07:56to the Russia-Ukraine war since he took office.
08:00Now his administration is again suggesting a deal is near.
08:03What has changed that would make the president think a solution is any closer now than it was a year
08:09ago?
08:12I think we shouldn't take his words literally.
08:15He usually, you know, expresses himself in these bombastic ways.
08:19And I couldn't really find anything which would have indicated to me
08:24that there was a sort of a major turning point now
08:27and that they were very close to some kind of agreement
08:30because I think the positions of the sides are still far apart.
08:35And Russia has kept very much to its maximalist positions.
08:40They are very happy to discuss what we call, you know, mutual security guarantees.
08:45But, I mean, the way that the Russians interpret these
08:49and what they are demanding, you know,
08:51is not really what the West is ready to accept.
08:55And a lot has to do not just with Ukraine,
08:58but with entire sort of European security architecture,
09:01which is something that is apparently under discussion.
09:05Well, I wanted to ask you about that exactly
09:07because Donald Trump has touted a deal with Russia involving, quote,
09:11all of Europe.
09:12And his envoy, Jared Kushner, has referred to a broader security,
09:17European security architecture, just as you said.
09:20Do you have any idea what they're talking about?
09:25I don't really know.
09:26What is interesting is I've read carefully, you know,
09:29the post that Kushner put on social media.
09:32And he also says very clearly that any arrangement must respect
09:39the sovereignty, the territorial integrity and the independent decision-making of every nation.
09:45So that seems to be very much along the traditional Western position
09:49in support of Ukraine and its territorial integrity.
09:53Also, it has, you know, the right to engage in, you know,
09:57in any security and alliances, arrangements that it wishes.
10:02So no country should have a veto on any choices, especially regarding NATO.
10:08And NATO would remain central to European collective defence.
10:12So it seems that what Kushner is trying to do in many ways is sort of to square the circle,
10:17to try to please the Russians by arguing that, yes,
10:20European security has to be indivisible.
10:23It, you know, it should not involve that the security of one country
10:27is carried out at the expense of others.
10:29But at the same time, you know, it seems it's not ready.
10:33I mean, at least, you know, if we are thinking that this is the American position,
10:37you know, no, they're not really ready to completely transform
10:40the European security system in the way that the Russians want.
10:44The Russians want guarantees, you know, of no NATO enlargement.
10:48They want guarantees that Ukraine will remain neutral, not a member of NATO,
10:52that its armed forces are in some way reduced and not, you know,
10:58would not represent a threat to Russia.
11:01So there are a lot of issues there when we look at the details,
11:04where I don't really see that these two sides can actually come to an agreement.
11:09And above all, you know, the Russians have always insisted that they want,
11:12you know, written binding legal agreements.
11:15So how can you do that?
11:17That would involve, you know, engaging with NATO, European member states as well.
11:22Well, Europe is really not at the table in these talks that the U.S.
11:28is holding with Russia and Ukraine.
11:29They've been sidelined to some degree, but Europe is getting talked about
11:33and all of this impacts Europe.
11:34What is Europe's position on this latest push by the U.S. to end the war?
11:42I think that there's been a meeting of Kushner with the Europeans, I think, yesterday,
11:47and he was kind of satisfied with what he, you know, what was the result of this talk.
11:53And, you know, it means that, you know, the Americans are trying to at least, you know,
11:58communicate with the Europeans regarding any kind of negotiations.
12:03But, you know, it is clear that the Europeans are going to have to be involved if they're,
12:08you know, we're talking about decisions that affect the European continent.
12:12Now, we know that there was an initiative by the president of Finland and the prime minister
12:18of Norway.
12:18They engage in a long talk with Putin.
12:21Putin, and that created a bit of an uproar among certain countries in Europe, for example,
12:28the prime minister of Denmark.
12:30At the same time, we have the prime minister of Italy saying that we really need one voice
12:36to speak on behalf of Europe.
12:38And I think that is really important.
12:40I think Europe needs to have a mandate of a negotiator that, you know, has clarified the
12:47positions of most of all European states.
12:50But having said that, I think Europeans are generally all in agreement.
12:54You know, they do not want a change of the role of NATO in European security.
12:59They do not want sort of a disarmament of, you know, Ukraine or a weakening of its military
13:06capabilities.
13:07They don't want that, you know, that the deployment of NATO forces in the eastern parts of NATO be
13:16sort of cancelled or withdrawn.
13:17So, I think that we have a certain level of consensus in Europe.
13:22The problem is that Europe is not really engaged now in these negotiations.
13:26And it's not really clear if the Russians want them there.
13:30They have sent very different messages depending on the time, you know.
13:35Domotila, thank you very much.
13:36That was Domotila Sagrimoso, Senior Lecturer in Security and Development at King's College,
13:40London.
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