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00:00:09Hello, Tala Sur English presents a new episode of China Now, a WaveMedia's production that
00:00:13showcases the culture, technology and politics of the Asian giant.
00:00:17In this first segment, China Currents takes a deep dive into the week's top stories from
00:00:22the White House press secretary who lasted just five days, and what she said about China
00:00:27to a flag in Moscow classroom that has Chinese students demanding answers, let's see.
00:00:37Hello and welcome to China Currents.
00:00:39This week, we start with the White House press secretary who lasted only five days in what
00:00:43she said about China.
00:00:45Then a Chinese 94-year-old retired engineer who took on Tibet by himself.
00:00:50Afterwards, a flag in a Moscow classroom that has Chinese students demanding answers.
00:00:55And finally, a bridge on the Yalu River that sat unused for 12 years.
00:01:00Until now.
00:01:01Let's start.
00:01:02On October 12th, Katie Zakaria took over as White House press secretary.
00:01:07Five days later, she was out.
00:01:09In between, an old comment dismissing China's rise resurfaced and Beijing had a short response
00:01:13of its own.
00:01:14In an interview with conservative commentator Jack Pesobike, Zakaria recalled a mood in the
00:01:19United States back in 2016.
00:01:21There was growing talk that China was on the rise and could challenge America's position
00:01:25in the world.
00:01:26She said that she couldn't understand why people took that prospect seriously.
00:01:30Her explanation was blunt.
00:01:31They don't even have proper toilets.
00:01:34Zakaria had lived in Beijing from 2011 to 2013, and she was talking about a country she
00:01:39had actually experienced, not one she only knew from headlines.
00:01:43But her verdict reduced China's prospects of the global power to a single, rather basic
00:01:48measure of development.
00:01:49For years, China has often been portrayed through a familiar contrast.
00:01:54Its economy may be growing, but still, everyday life is supposedly backward.
00:01:58The problem with that picture is that it can become so fixed that people keep relying on
00:02:03it long after the country itself has changed.
00:02:05On October 16th, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning was asked about Zakaria's remarks.
00:02:11Her response was brief.
00:02:13She's welcome to come see China when she has the opportunity.
00:02:17No lengthy rebuttal was needed, and no point-by-point argument was needed.
00:02:21Just an invitation to come back and take another look.
00:02:24Meanwhile, the remarks sparked an unexpected response online.
00:02:27People who had lived in or traveled around China began posting videos of public toilets,
00:02:31tours, facilities, and everyday amenities, pushing back against a portrayal of the country.
00:02:36What began as a dismissive comment became an opportunity for people to show what China looks like today.
00:02:42But Zakaria's own time in the White House was already off to a rocky start.
00:02:46Her first press briefing lasted around 14 minutes, and she took questions from just three media outlets.
00:02:52Her legal credentials also came under scrutiny after questions were raised about her claims to be a lawyer
00:02:57and her failure to pass a California bar exam.
00:03:00Then, on October 16th, Trump said he had suggested she step aside.
00:03:04Her tenure ended after just five days, making it the shortest of any White House press secretary.
00:03:10There's no evidence that her comments about China's toilets had anything to do with her departure,
00:03:14but the timing made for an extraordinary week.
00:03:17And perhaps the most revealing part of her remark wasn't the insult itself,
00:03:21but it was the assumption that was behind it.
00:03:23That a country's future can be judged by a snapshot from the past.
00:03:26China doesn't need every foreign politician to approve of its development,
00:03:30but anyone trying to assess its place in the world today will need more than memories from a decade ago
00:03:35and a verdict about toilets.
00:03:37Seeing China with your own eyes is what our next story is all about.
00:03:41At 94, would you be willing to travel across an entire country on your own?
00:03:45Tan, a retired railway engineer from Wuxi, did exactly that.
00:03:50When he asked AI whether someone his age could make the trip to Tibet,
00:03:54he didn't get a clear answer.
00:03:55So he decided to find out for himself.
00:03:58Tan has loved traveling since he was young and picked up the hobby again after retirement.
00:04:03Beijing was the first stop on his latest journey across China.
00:04:06He saved Tibet for last because, as he put it, it was the most challenging destination.
00:04:11By the time he set off for Tibet, he had already visited the country's other 33 provincial-level regions.
00:04:18His family supported him throughout those earlier trips.
00:04:21But Tibet was different.
00:04:22This time, his family and friends were all against the idea.
00:04:26Even a train conductor he met along the way advised him not to go.
00:04:30Tan had hoped to join a tour group, but travel agencies turned him away because of his age.
00:04:34Still, long journeys were nothing new to him.
00:04:36In September, he had completed a trip to Xinjiang.
00:04:40He returned home, rested for 20 days, then set off for Tibet alone.
00:04:44Over the years, Tan had learned to use a smartphone to book his own train and plane tickets,
00:04:49reserve hotels, and research local attractions and travel routes.
00:04:53He is comfortable with ride-hailing apps as well, and even opts for shared rides.
00:04:57His daughter installed an AI assistant on his phone, which he uses to look up information
00:05:02such as the altitude of places he plans to visit.
00:05:04Tan left Wuxi on October 10th and arrived in Lhasa two days later after a 43-hour train journey.
00:05:12He visited the Potala Palace, Jokhang Temple, and other local landmarks,
00:05:17and he said he felt fine with no symptoms of altitude sickness.
00:05:20After his story spread online, Lhasa's tourism authorities contacted him
00:05:24and helped arrange visits to the Tibet Museum and Norbalinka, as well as a Tibetan opera performance.
00:05:30Having visited all 34 provincial-level regions, Tan had completed his round of travels, but he had no plans to
00:05:37stop.
00:05:38Next, he wants to see Guangxi's Pinglu Canal, a major new waterway, and revisit Hefei to see how the city
00:05:44has changed.
00:05:45He is curious about how places beyond his own city are developing and wants to see those changes for himself.
00:05:50AI can help plan a journey, compare hotels, and flag potential risks, but it cannot decide what a journey is
00:05:57worth to the person taking it.
00:05:59And Tan's advice to younger people is simple.
00:06:01Get enough sleep, take care of your health, and go out and see more of the world.
00:06:05Whatever you want to do, he says, take the first step.
00:06:07Now to a classroom in Moscow, where a history presentation has set off a heated reaction among Chinese students.
00:06:13On October 14th, a Chinese student from Nanjing wore Japan's rising sun flag during a presentation in a Japanese history
00:06:20class at Moscow State University.
00:06:22An old Japanese military cap sat on his desk.
00:06:26The student, identified by his surname Chen, is a third-year history major.
00:06:30The choice of flag was particularly jarring given its history.
00:06:34Japan's imperial military used the rising sun flag during its invasions and occupation of China and other parts of Asia.
00:06:41For many people across the region, it remains a powerful symbol of Japanese militarism.
00:06:46Chen initially defended his actions as an academic presentation.
00:06:50But his first apology video, in which he wore sunglasses and a face mask, only drew more criticism.
00:06:56He later posted another apology with his face uncovered.
00:06:59Screenshots said to be from his WeChat moments also spread online, including a Japanese language profile line,
00:07:05reportedly linked to a song associated with Japan's wartime naval academy.
00:07:10The post added to the backlash.
00:07:13On October 17th, the Chinese Students and Scholars Association at Moscow State University said the university had launched a formal
00:07:20investigation.
00:07:21The association said the incident seriously violated the university's educational values and disrupted classroom order.
00:07:27Chinese students who witnessed the presentation challenged Chen at the time.
00:07:31They later submitted a joint petition, complete with signatures and fingerprints, calling out the university to investigate and take action
00:07:39under its rules.
00:07:39This was not the first time Japanese military symbols had sparked outrage in China.
00:07:44In 2018, two men dressed in Japanese military uniforms posed for photos at a wartime resistance site on Zijinshan in
00:07:52Nanjing.
00:07:53Police later detained them for 15 days.
00:07:55The controversy over Japan's wartime legacy also extends beyond flags and military uniform.
00:08:01In January, a children's Pokemon card event planned for Yasukuni Shrine appeared on Pokemon's official event search page.
00:08:09The event was later cancelled and the company issued a public apology.
00:08:14This is because Yasukuni is no ordinary venue.
00:08:16It honors Japan's war dead, including convicted Class A war criminals.
00:08:21An event aimed at children taking place at such a site was bound to raise questions about how Japan's wartime
00:08:27history is remembered.
00:08:29Pokemon did not organize the event itself, but the fact that it appeared on the company's official page drew scrutiny
00:08:35over how their listing had been approved.
00:08:38Meanwhile, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs increased its budget for countering information warfare from 17 billion yen to over 20
00:08:46billion yen for fiscal year 2026.
00:08:48The Japanese government says the funding will support strategic communications and efforts to counter misinformation.
00:08:55Japan's presentation of its history to international audiences has also been a source of ongoing debate.
00:09:01Historical memory does not live only in textbooks or at memorial ceremonies.
00:09:06It is also shaped by the symbols people display, the events they promote, and the stories that circulate in popular
00:09:11culture.
00:09:12When symbols associated with wartime aggression are stripped of their historical context and treated as harmless decorations or entertainment,
00:09:20the history behind them can become easier to overlook.
00:09:23In the Moscow case, one thing deserves particular attention, the Chinese students who refused to stay silent.
00:09:29They challenged the display in the classroom and later joined together to petition the university for an investigation and disciplinary
00:09:35action.
00:09:36They refused to accept that the flag was simply an academic prop.
00:09:40Because the rising sun flag is not just another piece of classroom decoration, its history goes with it.
00:09:46Finally, let's head to China's border with North Korea.
00:09:49China and North Korea have opened a new bridge across the Yalu River, linking the Chinese border city of Dandong
00:09:55with Shiniju in North Korea.
00:09:57It's a major new route for trade between the two neighbors.
00:10:01The bridge was completed back in 2014, but then sat unused for 12 years.
00:10:06Stretching about three kilometers, the bridge has four lanes for two-way traffic.
00:10:10Its 28.5-meter-wide deck also provides enough clearance for vessels in the 3,000-ton class to pass
00:10:17underneath.
00:10:18Until now, most cross-border traffic has relied on the old Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge.
00:10:23It carries both road and rail traffic, but its road section is restricted to trucks under 20 tons, and vehicles
00:10:29can cross in only one direction at a time.
00:10:32The new bridge removes those constraints, giving trucks a much more direct way to move goods across the border.
00:10:37And this matters because Dandong is China's largest border trade port with North Korea, and China remains North Korea's biggest
00:10:44trading partner.
00:10:44Bilateral trade has recovered in recent years, and a more efficient crossing could make it easier to transport construction materials,
00:10:52machinery, and other goods.
00:10:53But why did a bridge built in 2014 take another 12 years to open?
00:10:57The main obstacle was on the North Korean side, where the connecting roads and customs facilities remained unfinished.
00:11:04Analysts have also pointed to Pyongyang's concerns about opening the border further.
00:11:08Better transport links mean more than faster freight.
00:11:11They can also bring more people across the border and deepen commercial ties with China.
00:11:15For North Korea, that makes connectivity a political and economic question, not just a logistical one.
00:11:21When the bridge finally opened on October 15th, trucks began crossing in both directions.
00:11:27Shen Jingsong, who has worked in China-North Korea trade in Dandong for 30 years, put the difference in practical
00:11:32terms.
00:11:33On the old bridge, traffic could move in only one direction at a time.
00:11:36With the new four-lane crossing, he expects trucks to be able to make two round trips a day.
00:11:42For traders who have spent years working around the old bridge's limits, that could mean less waiting, lower transport costs,
00:11:48and more goods moving across the Yalu River.
00:11:51And those are our stories for this week.
00:11:53Thanks for watching, China Currents. We'll see you next time.
00:12:00We have a short break now, but don't go away because we'll be right back.
00:12:22Welcome back to China Now.
00:12:23In this second segment, Roughly Chinese podcast invites John Ross, Senior Fellow at Shenzhen Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin
00:12:31University of China,
00:12:33who will address the reasons behind Irish independence, which was linked to terrible famine they endured because of the British
00:12:40halt on foreign food imports to the territory, among other restrictions.
00:12:44And also, he's going to be speaking how Irish history connects itself with the current democratic process in the US,
00:12:51just a few weeks away from midterm elections. Let's see.
00:12:55The Irish would depend upon potatoes, and the English or the British would not allow the import, except with very,
00:13:04very high tariffs of wheat and food into Ireland, and therefore they directly caused the deaths of millions of people.
00:13:11That's one of the reasons why the Irish people wanted independence, amongst many other things, as a result of which
00:13:20is, therefore, millions of people from Ireland emigrated to the United States, and they form a rather large proportion of
00:13:27electorate in the United States, and they overwhelmingly, by an enormous majority, support unification, because their ancestors fled the country
00:13:37because of the terrible famine which happened.
00:13:40And therefore, therefore, they're a quite big electoral bloc. All US presidents have expressed their Irish roots and their affinity
00:13:52for Ireland and their like for Ireland, except for purely electoralists.
00:13:56The only thing that's new about Trump is, previously, US presidents didn't like to actively declare themselves in the frame
00:14:04of unification, because they can't get problems with their British allies.
00:14:08So the British government objected very strongly to this, and people like Farage are coming to me in a minute.
00:14:14OK, OK. But Trump doesn't care about the Europeans. He thinks, quite rightly, that the European governments will do whatever
00:14:21he tells them to.
00:14:22Whatever the United States demands that they do on major things they will do, so he doesn't have to pay
00:14:28any attention to them.
00:14:29He can insult them or treat them with contempt. He's quite right on that.
00:14:34They will. They will do on most important things exactly what he said.
00:14:38So his judgment is correct. He's somewhat cruder in his expressions. Therefore, he doesn't care.
00:14:44So therefore, he has broken with the convention.
00:14:49Hello, guys. Welcome back to Down Filter.
00:14:51Today, we're very happy to be sitting with Mr. John Ross, British economist and senior fellow at Chongyang Institute for
00:14:58Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.
00:15:00He served as Director of Economic and Business Policy for the Major of London from 2000 to 2008, and writes
00:15:08widely on British, Chinese and world economies.
00:15:11Welcome, Ms. Ross.
00:15:13Very pleased to be here.
00:15:15So what we heard is last week, President Trump casually or accidentally said he would love to see Ireland unified.
00:15:22And this week, leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland signed a joint declaration on self-determination in Cardiff, with
00:15:31the SNP Shane Fan and Plaid Cymru, all saying they're supporting to sign more declaration, memorandum and holding unification.
00:15:42What does that even mean?
00:15:43What's the first thought when you see this news that Trump is supporting unification of Ireland?
00:15:49Well, to understand this, it's necessary to know a little bit about the history of what is known as the
00:15:54United Kingdom, which was originally four countries.
00:15:58And they have very different points in time at which they integrated with each other and very different histories.
00:16:06So I'll start with the earliest, right?
00:16:08Ireland was a simple forward military conquest by England.
00:16:12England is by far the largest of the states within the United Kingdom.
00:16:17It simply conquered Ireland militarily.
00:16:21The Irish have been fighting against this more or less for 900 years.
00:16:25And by I mean fighting against it, I mean, you know, with military uprisings and wars and political opposition and
00:16:32so on and so forth.
00:16:33And eventually, just after World War I, Ireland was divided because there was a division.
00:16:40The main part of Ireland was always Catholic in religion.
00:16:43And once England converted to Protestantism in the early part of the 16th century, the majority of Irish people, because
00:16:54they didn't agree with their conquest by England, refused to convert to Protestantism and remained Catholic.
00:17:00The English then attempted to deal with this by importing a number of Protestants from Scotland and from other places
00:17:08and putting them in the north of Ireland.
00:17:10And eventually what happened, and therefore, during the struggles for independence, you found that as part of the northeast, that
00:17:19is the six counties, which are sometimes referred to as Ulster, but they're really the north of Ireland, were Protestant,
00:17:25had a Protestant majority.
00:17:27The rest of Ireland had a Catholic majority.
00:17:29And after World War II, and after World War II, the two countries split, with the southern part gaining independence.
00:17:36That's the history of Ireland.
00:17:39Wales was also conquered militarily, but relatively very early.
00:17:45It's been conquered by England for 400 or 500 years.
00:17:48And Scotland had a completely different history.
00:17:51There were many, many wars between England and Scotland.
00:17:54And the English never succeeded in completely conquering Scotland.
00:17:59On several occasions, they actually militarily conquered it, but the Scottish fought back and gained their independence.
00:18:07The union between the two countries was a voluntary union, that is, in the sense it was voted at the
00:18:14beginning of the 18th century.
00:18:15And that means you have different feelings for independence amongst all these countries.
00:18:21In Ireland, as I say, there's a 900-year history of fighting for independence.
00:18:27It is only a matter of time before the whole of Ireland becomes united and independent of Britain.
00:18:33It's such a lot of history.
00:18:35In Wales, although it is definitely a separate nation, there is a Welsh language and separate Welsh institutions.
00:18:43Nevertheless, it's been integrated with England for a very long time.
00:18:46And therefore, feeling for independence is, in general, weaker in Wales than it is in Ireland or in Scotland.
00:18:54And Scotland has been an indeterminate situation.
00:18:58If there was a referendum on Scottish independence, which was narrowly voted to remain united with England, but not by
00:19:05a very big margin.
00:19:06And it's very possible that Scotland, in any future referendum, will vote for independence.
00:19:13So people should understand it.
00:19:15Because I know sometimes in China, I've read the media, they get confused that they think the situation of Scotland,
00:19:21for example, is comparable to the situation of Hong Kong.
00:19:24And this is completely not the case.
00:19:27Scotland is a nation by all criteria.
00:19:30It has its own legal system.
00:19:32It has its own court system.
00:19:35And it was never actually conquered by England.
00:19:39It was a union between the two.
00:19:42So therefore, what the declaration of these three leaders, by the right of self-determination, means that each of these
00:19:50countries should be allowed to decide whether it wants to remain part of in union with England.
00:19:58This is completely different to Hong Kong, for example, which is never an independent country or anything like that.
00:20:03People get a bit confused about it.
00:20:06So therefore, what this declaration was doing was recognising that each of these three countries will have the right to
00:20:14determine its relationships with what is a state dominated by England.
00:20:19What will happen in the end is, at some point, Ireland will become independent.
00:20:24It's a remnant and the British imposed their rule on the north of Ireland.
00:20:30Wales, while it has the right to self-determination, in general opinion polls show that the big majority of the
00:20:36population doesn't want independence.
00:20:38Although there is Plaid Cymru is a Welsh independence party that stands for Welsh independence, and in Scotland it's been
00:20:47very close.
00:20:48It's quite possible and also quite not possible that there will be a vote in favour of independence.
00:20:54But what is the recognition, which incidentally the British government has now accepted quite some time ago, is each of
00:21:02these countries has the right to decide what its relationship with Britain will be.
00:21:08It's not like separatists, for example, in Taiwan or the province or separatists in Hong Kong.
00:21:14Everybody recognises that these are in fact four different nations which were united within the kingdom.
00:21:20So they're originally united by their allegiance to the crown, and that's why it was called the United Kingdom.
00:21:28You know, the film called Braveheart is maybe the founding big film for many Chinese youths like me.
00:21:37When a character Hale yelled, ah, freedom, it was very moving for my childhood.
00:21:44But beyond that, many people would anticipate places like Wales, like Scotland, and like Ireland.
00:21:51They're really hoping to get unification on a more identity, more identity field instead of economic field.
00:22:00But you've written many years about Britain's economic decline.
00:22:03Do you think economic weakness more than identity or history is the real reason why support of leaving UK is
00:22:10growing?
00:22:10Because we saw many polls that among the young generations, they're more eager to leave UK.
00:22:17But for the mid-ages and elders, they're not willing to leave UK.
00:22:22It's different in the different countries.
00:22:24Ireland is a very separate case.
00:22:26I say Ireland has been many uprisings, military uprisings, wars.
00:22:31They have a different religion, different culture.
00:22:34And Ireland is quite separate in that sense.
00:22:38Ireland will want independence.
00:22:40It's nothing to do with economic decline of Britain.
00:22:43It's a very, very long, very deep struggle, as I say, that's been going on for many centuries.
00:22:49In the case of Scotland, which is the other case, yes, probably the reason for the demand for independence is
00:22:55probably the economic decline.
00:22:56But it must be understood that Scotland is very aware of its status as its own nation.
00:23:04I mean, the best symbol of that is the national poet of Scotland, Robert Burns, who has a day each
00:23:11year in Scotland.
00:23:12It's one of the main celebrations there.
00:23:14He was a very strong supporter of Scottish independence.
00:23:18One of his most famous poems is called Such a Parcel of Rogues in a Nation.
00:23:24That is, such a small number of traitors have sold out the country.
00:23:30And it's the refrain in it is, we are bought and sold for English gold, such a parcel of rogues
00:23:39in a nation, which means the English could never conquer Scotland militarily, which is true.
00:23:46I mean, they succeeded one or twice.
00:23:49Braveheart and other films, whenever they succeeded, the Scottish then rose up after a certain period of time and threw
00:23:55them out.
00:23:56But Scotland could never be conquered militarily by England.
00:24:00And therefore, when they joined together, it was because there was a vote in Scotland to do so.
00:24:06Now, there wasn't very much democracy at that time.
00:24:09And Burns says that he believes in the poem that the people who agreed to this were bought for English
00:24:15gold, as he puts.
00:24:17But yes, but there was not a strong feeling for Scottish independence for a very long time.
00:24:22Although it was all regarded as a separate nation, there's no doubt about that.
00:24:26It has a separate legal system.
00:24:28It has a different educational system, et cetera, to England.
00:24:30It has the institutions of a nation.
00:24:33But it didn't have a strong feeling for independence.
00:24:36Yes, probably the increase in the demand for independence is due to the economic decline.
00:24:44The reason for the generations thing is also because what has happened is, as England has become very, has economically
00:24:56declined, as Britain has economically declined, the political trends in Scotland are very different to the political trends in England.
00:25:06In England, the Conservative Party, popularly known as the Tories, was dominant, completely dominant from the late 19th century onwards.
00:25:16But it completely, in England, has always more or less had a majority in England, or except very occasionally when
00:25:24there's a huge Labour majority.
00:25:25But in Scotland, on the contrary, the Conservative Party was extremely unpopular.
00:25:29In Scotland, in general, they want more welfare spending, they want more state intervention in the economy, and therefore the
00:25:37Conservative Party was extreme, became, at some points, almost a marginal party in Scotland, with almost no support, right, or
00:25:46no parliamentary support.
00:25:48Whereas in England, the Conservative Party was dominant.
00:25:51It's not a straightforward, simple economic trend.
00:25:54But in Scotland, that economic decline gives rise to different political trends within the two countries.
00:26:00Wales was slightly different.
00:26:02Wales, as I say, the polls show the feeling for independence has never been so strong, and the rise of
00:26:09Plaid Cormier is more recent than it has been within Scotland.
00:26:15Well, we'll have to put another angle here, because we understand that the UK spent decades leaving the EU and
00:26:24trying to join EU again.
00:26:26So Brexit put a trade border in the Irish Sea and pushed Northern Ireland's economy closer to the Republic.
00:26:33So looking back, was Brexit the moment when the breakup of the UK became truly possible?
00:26:40Or is there going to be a thing, considering they're going to have a unification in the near future or
00:26:46not?
00:26:46No, the trend predates the vote on Brexit.
00:26:51The vote on Brexit probably made the situation, speeded up the situation, but didn't create it.
00:26:58As I say, in Ireland, you've had a struggle going on for hundreds of years for independence.
00:27:04This gained the independence of 26 out of the 32 counties in Ireland just after World War I.
00:27:11Only the six counties of the north of Ireland remained, therefore, united with Britain.
00:27:17You had a division between Republicans, that is, people who wanted unification with the south of Ireland, and Unionists.
00:27:24Traditionally, because of the way the border was drawn, because the border was not drawn in any democratic way at
00:27:31all.
00:27:31It was drawn by the British state to make sure there was a majority for Union of the six counties,
00:27:37right?
00:27:38Traditionally, therefore, the Unionists ruled it.
00:27:41But there was increase in opposition to this.
00:27:43And in the late 1960s and 1970s, it gave rise to what was in the north of Ireland, the civil
00:27:50rights movement, because there was a great deal of discrimination against Catholics.
00:27:55They were not allowed to be employed in the most, I mean, it wasn't legal, but there were no Catholics
00:28:00employed in the most, many of the industries in the north of Ireland, because they were reserved for Protestants.
00:28:07The housing in the cities was separated.
00:28:10There was a great deal of repression carried out by the Unionists, and there began a movement in the late
00:28:161960s called for civil rights, which was demanding getting rid of the artificial drawing of the boundaries, stopping the discrimination
00:28:26in employment against the Catholics, etc.
00:28:29That developed in the late 1960s, and then it became a struggle for independence and an armed struggle waged by
00:28:38the Irish Republican Army in the period which was known as the Troubles, which lasted from the 1970s through to
00:28:45the 1990s.
00:28:46And that meant that the Irish Republican Army waged a military campaign against Britain with bomb explosions, and there were
00:28:54people killed both in Ireland and in Britain.
00:28:57And at the same time, there were awful events carried out by the British Army in the north of Ireland,
00:29:02of which the most notorious was called Bloody Sunday,
00:29:04in which the British Army, in which the British Army shot a large number of unarmed Irish demonstrators, which the
00:29:11British government, which is acknowledged.
00:29:14The British government set up and eventually set up an official inquiry, and the official inquiry said that the British
00:29:19Army had carried out the massacre, and it had not been by the Catholics.
00:29:23That was even defined in the British government, and the Prime Minister had to officially apologise in the House of
00:29:29Commons for this.
00:29:31So this has got a dynamic which is really not connected with Brexit at all.
00:29:35It's true that there is a difference that the north of Ireland did not want to leave the EU, so
00:29:43this is one of the things that's created problems for unionists.
00:29:46And there's been a change for the first time ever. Now Sinn Féin has the leadership of the government in
00:29:53Ireland, in the north of Ireland, under the so-called Good Friday Agreement, which was drawn up in the 1990s.
00:29:58There is power sharing. That was what was necessary to bring together, bring to an end the period of the
00:30:04Troubles, which means that although you have a first minister who comes from either the unionist or from the Republican
00:30:12community,
00:30:13nevertheless, the sort of veto powers are exercised by the other side, so it's called power sharing.
00:30:20And it's made the economic situation in Ireland worse because of the fact, as you say, you now have a
00:30:26economic border down the Irish Sea.
00:30:28But all that, this struggle was hugely before anything to do with Brexit.
00:30:34Right. It's true in Scotland. In the referendum on Brexit, they voted a different way.
00:30:41Scotland voted to stay in the EU and England voted to leave the EU.
00:30:45That's another aspect of the very different political dynamics which exist between the two countries, right, or the two nations,
00:30:53because they're in the same state, but they're different nations, right?
00:30:57Therefore, what happened after that, from that point of view onwards, that's intended to increase the dynamics.
00:31:04And yes, the younger generation, because it doesn't have the same tradition of being within the same state, because it's
00:31:11dissatisfied with the economic conditions, because the economic situation in Britain is not as bad.
00:31:18It's not really not very good. It's bad.
00:31:20Our real wages haven't gone up since about 2008.
00:31:24So therefore, it's the feeling for independence is stronger.
00:31:28But it's Brexit did not create the dynamic.
00:31:33Brexit, in the case of Scotland, I would say, made almost no difference or very marginal difference in Ireland.
00:31:39In the case of Scotland, probably exacerbated it, but didn't create it.
00:31:44It just reinforced, it was something which reinforced tendencies which were taking place anyway.
00:31:48Well, it's interesting to see Xinfeng and SNP and the platformer all together saying they will have a referendum.
00:31:56But according to the law, maybe only the Irish people get a say to have a referendum because the Good
00:32:03Friday Agreement, which you already said.
00:32:05But according to the agreement, the referendum must be called if so-called majority appears likely to support unity.
00:32:12So it's so vague. No one has now ever defined what that even means.
00:32:17It's like almost so-called rule-based order. Nobody defined what rule it is.
00:32:22So who should have the power to decide? London, Belfast, or maybe the voters themselves?
00:32:28Well, my opinion is actually, as soon as Ireland was conquered in the first place, is that the Irish people
00:32:36should have the right to decide.
00:32:37That's my view.
00:32:38However, we also have to look at what is the actual law of the situation, right?
00:32:43And that the law is, as you say, at some point it's not determined.
00:32:46It will appear that there is a majority for unification of the South Ireland, in which case a referendum will
00:32:53be held.
00:32:53It's not completely defined, as you say.
00:32:57It really will probably be determined by what is the political dynamics of the situation, because the reality of the
00:33:04situation is that the Republicans are now much more consolidated politically under the leadership of Sinn Féin, whereas the unionists
00:33:11are rather fractured and divided into various fractions.
00:33:13And the incident, even many of the unionists don't want to leave the European Union, so therefore they were not
00:33:23in favour of Brexit.
00:33:24So therefore there's quite a lot of divisions amongst the unionists, whereas the Republicans tend to become increasingly consolidated around
00:33:33Sinn Féin.
00:33:34Historically, there were – well, by historically, I mean, if you go back 40 years, there were two parties of
00:33:40the Catholic population in North Ireland.
00:33:42One was the Republicans, which became Sinn Féin.
00:33:46And the other was the Social Democratic and Labour Party.
00:33:50Originally, the Social Democratic and Labour Party had the majority, but by now Sinn Féin has by far the biggest
00:33:59majority.
00:34:00So therefore, doubtless there will be political negotiation, struggle, et cetera, et cetera, before we do actually have a referendum
00:34:09on it, because you say it's not clearly defined.
00:34:12But what in reality is, what will probably happen is, if the opinion polls show that the majority of the
00:34:20people in the North of Ireland want a referendum and want to join the South, then it'll be called.
00:34:27I don't think that the British government is desperate to hold on to the North of Ireland.
00:34:33I think a very large number of politicians accept what is the historical reality, which is that Ireland was forcibly
00:34:41incorporated within the British state.
00:34:44The majority of the Irish people never wanted it.
00:34:47They fought against it.
00:34:49And the people who support unification are artificially planted.
00:34:53I mean, I agree, several hundred years ago, I'm not blaming the people individually now.
00:34:57But it was because they couldn't, because the English couldn't win over the Irish people to support unification with England,
00:35:05they therefore imported a population into the North of Ireland, which is now probably a minority even within the North
00:35:14of Ireland.
00:35:14So I think what will happen is all the political trends go towards increasing, towards unification, and that's how it
00:35:20will end up.
00:35:21The exact process is not exactly specified yet.
00:35:25Well, there is a big problem here, because people are analyzing how it would be a political trend in the
00:35:31UK.
00:35:31But let's start talking about why Trump is saying that.
00:35:35What's the motivation here?
00:35:37He said that basically in Duneberg, a private golf course with Sinn Féin, the Sinn Féin leaders are very happy.
00:35:44But his traditional lovers and fanatics like Nigel Farage are not happy to see him saying unification of North of
00:35:52Ireland.
00:35:52So many are saying maybe he's saying that for Nobel Peace Prize, because there is rumor saying he pressured South
00:36:00Korea, unification with North Korea, because the former president of South Korea, Kim Daejeon, he won the Nobel Peace Prize
00:36:09for hosting committees, the summit with North Korea.
00:36:14So if Trump somehow has managed to make the unification of Ireland possible, he could get an Nobel Peace Prize.
00:36:21That's the first.
00:36:22The second said his motive were the trade pressure on London.
00:36:26Irish-American voters before the midterms in Pennsylvania, right?
00:36:31Without paying anything in the US, he'd just say that, and people in Pennsylvania, the Irish people will vote him.
00:36:36Or simply his business interest in Ireland.
00:36:39Which explanation do you find most convincing here?
00:36:41Oh, there's no doubt which is.
00:36:44It's Irish voters in the United States.
00:36:46There is a very large...
00:36:48This is an electoral move by Trump.
00:36:51It's got nothing to do with, I think, even with the Nobel Prize, much as he'd like it, right?
00:36:56It's very simple.
00:36:57One of the most evil aspects of English rule was the great famine of the 1840s in Ireland,
00:37:06in which millions of people died, and there was huge emigration.
00:37:10I mean, you could see the national catastrophe by the fact that Ireland is one of the few countries in
00:37:19the world
00:37:19which had a smaller population at the end of the 19th century than it did at the beginning of the
00:37:2419th century.
00:37:25And the reason for that is because a huge number of people died in the famine,
00:37:30which was caused by Britain, because Britain wouldn't allow the import of food into Ireland.
00:37:35But the Irish were dependent upon potatoes, and the English or the British would not allow the import,
00:37:44except with very, very high tariffs of wheat and food into Ireland,
00:37:49and therefore they directly caused the deaths of millions of people.
00:37:51That's one of the reasons of the reason why the Irish people wanted independence, amongst many other things,
00:38:00as a result of which is therefore millions of people from Ireland emigrated to the United States,
00:38:05and they form a rather large proportion of electorate in the United States,
00:38:09and they overwhelmingly, by an enormous majority, support unification,
00:38:14because their ancestors fled the country because of the terrible famine which happened.
00:38:20And therefore they're a quite big electoral bloc.
00:38:23All U.S. presidents have expressed their Irish roots and their affinity for Ireland
00:38:33and their like for Ireland, except for purely electoralists.
00:38:36The only thing that's new about Trump is previously U.S. presidents didn't like to actively declare themselves
00:38:45in frame of unification because they can't get problems with their British allies.
00:38:48So the British government objected very strongly to this, and people like Farage are coming to him in a minute.
00:38:54OK, but Trump doesn't care about the Europeans.
00:38:57He thinks, quite rightly, that the European governments will do whatever he tells them to.
00:39:02So whatever the United States demands that they do on major things, they will do.
00:39:08So he doesn't have to pay any attention to them.
00:39:10He can insult them or treat them with contempt.
00:39:13He's quite right on that.
00:39:14They will.
00:39:15They will do on most important things exactly what he said.
00:39:18So his judgment is correct.
00:39:20He's somewhat cruder in his expressions.
00:39:23Therefore, he doesn't care.
00:39:24So therefore, he has broken with the convention that the U.S. presidents don't express a view on unification
00:39:31and has come out clearly in favour of unification, which is very, will be popular.
00:39:37I doubt that it will win in the election in the United States, but there's no doubt that the Irish
00:39:41population
00:39:42or Irish descended population in the United States will support him on this, right?
00:39:48And for the British, he doesn't care what they think, because in the end, they'll do what he says anyway.
00:39:55And therefore, that.
00:39:56But of course, Farage and people are very put out because they're supporters of British control of the north of
00:40:04Ireland.
00:40:05And they've been, you know, they've been hit on the head, so to speak, by Trump.
00:40:12But that's the problem.
00:40:13If you subordinate yourself to the United States, and the United States quite rightly concludes you'll have to do what
00:40:19they say,
00:40:19then expect to get hit on the head.
00:40:21So he's just decided, I don't care what they think.
00:40:24I don't care what the British government says.
00:40:26I'm going to go for political support in the United States.
00:40:28So it's very simple.
00:40:30That's the reason why he's made these statements.
00:40:33Well, he has also talked about buying Greenland and making Canada the 51st state.
00:40:38Do you see a pattern in how he thinks about maps, borders, or nations?
00:40:42Because some scholars, we discuss this, they say he has a sort of real estate stakeholder mentality.
00:40:50He tends to think about other places like real estate properties, like in Gaza, making mansions and sell for money.
00:40:57Do you see any linkage here?
00:40:58Not via real estate.
00:41:00That's a bit impressionist.
00:41:02What Trump believes is, Trump believes that the military power of the United States in particular,
00:41:09the power of the United States in general, means that the United States can do whatever it wants.
00:41:14And it doesn't have to pay attention to what other countries think.
00:41:18That was it.
00:41:19Now, this works out in very different ways.
00:41:21He tried it out with China during Trump 1.0.
00:41:26And during April 2025, when he threatened to impose, I think it was 145% tariffs on China,
00:41:34to which China responded by cutting rare earths and various other economic reactions.
00:41:39And he found out that China was not weak and China wasn't going to do what the United States wanted.
00:41:45And therefore, he retreated.
00:41:47So, therefore, relations between the United States and China became rather more stable after that,
00:41:53because Trump found out, oh, I have miscalculated.
00:41:57I thought everybody would be forced to do what I did because of the power of the United States
00:42:01and the military power of the United States.
00:42:03And I found out, actually, he was informed that if China cut off rare earths,
00:42:08the American motor industry would have to shut down within six months.
00:42:12And therefore, oh, that's not, I can't do that.
00:42:15So, he's retreated on that.
00:42:17He thinks that he can do whatever.
00:42:19He's also getting a big something of a mess with Iran.
00:42:21Well, a big mess at the moment with Iran.
00:42:24He thought that the Iran would have to give in to what the United States wanted
00:42:28and what the United States and Israel wanted.
00:42:31And instead, what's happened is that Iran has fought back with missiles
00:42:35and closed the Straits of Hormuz.
00:42:37And this is not going very well for Trump at all.
00:42:41And oil prices have gone up.
00:42:43That means gasoline prices have gone up in the United States.
00:42:45And the war, all the polls show that this war is extremely unpopular.
00:42:49On the other hand, he managed to kidnap the president of Venezuela successfully.
00:42:55And therefore, Trump acts on the assumption that he could,
00:42:59boy, Michael, arrogance.
00:43:00America, we can do whatever we want, whatever we want.
00:43:02But it's turned out that for a significant number of countries, they won't.
00:43:07They'll hit back.
00:43:08At the moment, he's locked in something of a struggle with Canada
00:43:11because Canada has not given in to what the United States wants.
00:43:16But Trump is trying to put pressure on them.
00:43:20And Canada is not as strong as China.
00:43:23And Canada is not as strong as Iran has turned out to be.
00:43:28So it's not very, very clear what's going to happen in the case of Canada.
00:43:32We will see the fight is going on.
00:43:36From the point of view of Greenland,
00:43:38he wants it because he wants to be able to control the Arctic.
00:43:42This is really for confrontations with Russia.
00:43:45He wants to extend the U.S. control of the Arctic.
00:43:50And that's also part of the situation with Canada.
00:43:52So he wants that.
00:43:53Well, obviously, the United States can tell Denmark what it wants.
00:43:58Denmark can't fight the United States.
00:44:01But on the other hand, the European states,
00:44:03because of their relations with Denmark,
00:44:05may be forced to resist if Trump tried to take over Greenland.
00:44:11So that's at the moment, Trump's making a lot of rhetoric about that,
00:44:14but he's not actually able to do much about it.
00:44:17And the problem is, I don't know what exactly will happen
00:44:20with the situation in Greenland.
00:44:22That depends what the population wants.
00:44:23But it's a rather small population.
00:44:25So that's it.
00:44:26In the case of Canada, it's quite clear.
00:44:28All the polls show that Canada does not want to unify with the United States.
00:44:32They don't want to become the 51st state of the United States.
00:44:35And indeed, Trump's rhetoric about this probably resulted in Mark Carney being elected,
00:44:43because prior to Trump making these declarations about Canada becoming the 51st state,
00:44:48the Conservatives in Canada, who are normally more friendly to the United States
00:44:55than are the Liberals, which is Carney, were ahead in the opinion polls,
00:44:59until Trump starts to make all these declarations that Canada should become the 51st state of the United States.
00:45:06The opinion polls showed clearly that the overwhelming majority of the population didn't want it,
00:45:11because their health system wrecked.
00:45:14They don't want the French language suppressed, because a large, you know,
00:45:18approximately a quarter of the Canadian population speaks French as their first language.
00:45:24And it's a different country.
00:45:26They've got a different social system, different legal system, etc., etc.
00:45:30The result of which is, therefore, even the Conservatives were forced to criticise Trump for this.
00:45:35The result of which is, therefore, their lead in the opinion polls collapsed and Carney became prime minister,
00:45:41because he was the person who seemed to be opposing this attempt by the United States to grab Canada.
00:45:47So, therefore, Trump is not real estate.
00:45:50It's not something like that.
00:45:51It's a belief that the United States is so powerful that it can order other countries around.
00:45:58And Trump is finding out, rather painfully, first with China, then now with Iran, also to some extent with Russia,
00:46:06that the other countries won't do.
00:46:09The people who most will do what he wants is the Europeans.
00:46:13But that's the reasons why Trump's made all these things about Greenland and Canada.
00:46:19Well, it's interesting you mentioned Greenland, because I actually, last week,
00:46:23I met with two representatives from Greenland and talked with their leaders of local people, the Inuks.
00:46:30They're breaking into two parts.
00:46:32The first part is the leftists are asking for independence.
00:46:35And the right part, the conservatives, are actually bargaining with Americans for money,
00:46:40just so the Americans can think about getting them a so-called immigration status or just get them a visa,
00:46:47like Puerto Rico or whatever.
00:46:48They're asking for 50 grand, and Americans are saying,
00:46:51okay, if you're asking more, we're also offering 100 grand, and it's also possible.
00:46:55Because one cabbage in Greenland now is cost 50 USD, 50 bucks.
00:47:02They can't afford living there.
00:47:04There's no electricity, and the EU is now punishing people for buying, sell products.
00:47:09Sell, like seal, seal products.
00:47:12They're protecting animals and stuff.
00:47:13So it's quite big trouble for them to consider whether they still want to live with their ancestor land
00:47:19or just move to the U.S., start a new life.
00:47:22So the same thing happens to maybe Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland,
00:47:25as right now they're all led by parties trying to leave the UK.
00:47:31So what, if this continues, what will be left for Britain as an economy or as an idea?
00:47:37Well, first about the politics of Greenland.
00:47:40I don't know about the politics of Greenland, so I can't comment.
00:47:43I've visited Canada many times, so I do know the internal dynamics within Canada.
00:47:48On Britain, the core of the British state has always been England.
00:47:52It's by far the largest.
00:47:54It has by far the largest population.
00:47:56It has about, what, well over 80, 85% of the population of the United Kingdom.
00:48:03So England would just get on with its affairs as England.
00:48:06That's what would happen.
00:48:08Scotland would become independent.
00:48:10It would be a small state.
00:48:12It would presumably apply to join the European Union.
00:48:15That might create some complications on the border.
00:48:18It's not certain that Scotland will leave England.
00:48:24That's, it was, as I say, the referendum, the last referendum voted no.
00:48:27It didn't vote no by a huge margin,
00:48:30but it was, you know, not like it was crushing.
00:48:34I haven't seen any opinion poll which indicates that there is a majority,
00:48:41approach in a majority for independence in Wales,
00:48:44and Ireland will go its own, will become independent.
00:48:47So I'd think that if we go forward, let's say, 20 years,
00:48:51I think Ireland will leave, will become United Ireland, independent Britain.
00:48:56I think Wales, when there's something very astonishing happens,
00:49:01will remain with England, and Scotland is the hardest to predict.
00:49:07Many people want independence in Scotland, and it has been a rising trend.
00:49:12So it's certainly possible that Scotland will leave England.
00:49:16As I say, but you have to understand, because I say,
00:49:20I know in China there's confusion on this.
00:49:22This has got nothing to do with the positions of the Taiwanese separatists
00:49:26or the people in Hong Kong or something, right?
00:49:30These are, all of the United Kingdom recognise that these are four separate nations.
00:49:37They all have the right to self-determination.
00:49:41That is agreed by everybody.
00:49:42They then disagree on what they should do with this right to self-determination.
00:49:48So in Scotland, where it's the closest, a big part of the majority population thinks
00:49:53they want independence, and a big part thinks they shouldn't have independence.
00:49:56But apart from a fringe, certainly the British government always says Scotland
00:50:01has the right to decide this, and that's why it had the referendum on independence,
00:50:05and it voted against independence.
00:50:07But that's a right to self-determination.
00:50:09It just used its self-determination to vote no to separation.
00:50:12That's all.
00:50:13Well, after this conversation, what developments will we personally be watching most closely
00:50:18in the coming days or months?
00:50:20And what event, if it happens, would tell you that the situation has truly crossed the line?
00:50:26I think that it will be very interesting to see what happens at the next election in Britain.
00:50:33Because at the moment, we have a situation whereby you have a Labour government.
00:50:37Well, Labour, for most of the history of Scotland, when the Labour Party exists,
00:50:42has been the majority party in Scotland as well.
00:50:46So there's a political alignment sort of between the same sort of political forces.
00:50:51It's true that the SNP has become the majority party in Scotland,
00:50:57both from the point of view of its own Scottish Parliament and in the general elections.
00:51:02But Labour has always been a very, very strong party within Scotland.
00:51:06And for much of its history, it had the majority of members of Parliament.
00:51:10So if you like Labour government in Britain, that means Labour government in England,
00:51:14Labour government in Scotland doesn't create much political tension between the two.
00:51:18However, there is very, very strong opposition in Scotland for arge and reform,
00:51:24because it represents almost the exact opposite of what Scotland stands for.
00:51:28It stands for cutting welfare.
00:51:30It stands for reducing the independence of the intervention of the state.
00:51:35It stands for greater subordination to foreign wars.
00:51:38If there was a reform government in Britain, that would be a huge political contradiction
00:51:45between the population of Scotland.
00:51:48And I think under those circumstances, the demand for independence could become very, very strong.
00:51:53It's a bit too early to tell whether reform will form the government.
00:51:58I am very sure that the Labour Party will lose the next general election in Britain,
00:52:04because it refuses to break the United States over any substantial issue,
00:52:11the result of which is the British economy is in a big mess.
00:52:14The population has become very unpopular.
00:52:18You know, everybody knows that Starmer was elected with a big majority in Parliament
00:52:22and by two years later was forced to resign.
00:52:26Burnham has got more support at the moment, but he's not prepared to break the United States
00:52:32anything fundamental.
00:52:33So he will become very unpopular quite soon.
00:52:37And therefore, we don't have to have an election for two years.
00:52:40My view is that a government in Britain with the politics of reform will be elected.
00:52:45By the politics of reform, I mean, I can't tell you what will be the exact institutional arrangement
00:52:52between the Conservative Party and the Reform Party.
00:52:55It could be a reformed prime minister.
00:52:57It could be a conservative prime minister.
00:53:00It could be a majority of reform MPs.
00:53:02It could be a majority of conservative MPs.
00:53:05Too difficult to tell.
00:53:06What it will have is it will have the politics of reform, of Farage.
00:53:12And under those circumstances, there could be quite a clash.
00:53:16Well, there will be quite a clash between the politics of Scotland and England.
00:53:20That, of course, will then raise, could raise a quite sharp constitutional question.
00:53:25Because Farage or the, that will deny, attempt to deny Scotland a second referendum on independence.
00:53:33So, and you could, therefore, have a situation in Scotland in which there was a big majority
00:53:40for independence, a big majority against the Farage government, but refusive of a new referendum.
00:53:49That would lead to quite a crisis.
00:53:51Farage will try to stop, certainly, the Ireland being united.
00:53:57And, therefore, that's one of the things that may delay the independence of Ireland for some time,
00:54:04because there's a clash.
00:54:05But that's dominated by forces that are outside of Farage's control.
00:54:10You know, it depends, that depends on the political dynamics in Ireland.
00:54:13As I've said, as I've been said right from the beginning,
00:54:15the situation in Ireland is quite different from the situation with Scotland or Wales.
00:54:20So, I think, therefore, I don't expect any very big development to take place before the next general election,
00:54:28because you'll have a Labour government.
00:54:30I think that the SNP will continue to be strong in Scotland.
00:54:35Applied Cymru will continue to be strong in Wales.
00:54:38But I don't think there's going to be a big constitutional move.
00:54:41If, as I think, you have a Farage, a new next government has the politics reform,
00:54:48yes, then you may have very big constitutional clash.
00:54:53A political clash is absolutely certain, and a constitutional clash is very likely.
00:54:59Well, we exhausted our questions.
00:55:02What are some extra information you would love to provide to our Chinese audience,
00:55:06just so they will be more interested to learn more or understand more?
00:55:11Well, not on this particular issue.
00:55:13I think we dealt with it rather exhaustively, right?
00:55:16Okay.
00:55:16What I will say, I'll say a little bit on Britain's relations with China, right?
00:55:22Okay, if that's okay.
00:55:24The way I would put it is, I would be cautiously optimistic
00:55:31that there will be, modestly optimistic,
00:55:35that there will be some improvement in relations,
00:55:37because the whole of Europe at the moment is in a very difficult situation.
00:55:41The situation in Europe is terrible.
00:55:44It has very slow growth, high inflation, and a big war, you know, in Ukraine.
00:55:51This is a disaster, right?
00:55:53And it means that the whole strategic path that Europe has undertaken,
00:55:58it has ended in complete dead end.
00:56:00I mean, let's go back to the end of the Cold War when the Soviet Union collapsed.
00:56:04You then had a big opportunity for prosperity of Europe,
00:56:08because at that time, if you look at Europe,
00:56:12Europe, whereas the United States has almost every economic resource contained within its boundaries.
00:56:18It has oil, it has raw materials, it has Texas for raw materials, Alaska for raw materials,
00:56:24it has manufacturing, it has services, et cetera.
00:56:26In Europe, they're geographically split up.
00:56:29That is, in Western Europe, you have high-value-added manufacturing,
00:56:34you have services, agriculture, et cetera.
00:56:37It doesn't really have raw materials, and particularly it doesn't have energy.
00:56:41The Russian economy has some technologically very advanced features, such as in space,
00:56:47but it's not really a great manufacturing power, whereas it has huge resources of raw materials and energy.
00:56:54So, therefore, Russia plus Western Europe is an economic unit as powerful as the United States
00:57:02and as self-contained as the United States.
00:57:05Therefore, if after the collapse of the end of the Cold War, Europe had united itself
00:57:11and united these things, it would have been very successful economically.
00:57:15But for this reason, the United States was determined that that would not happen.
00:57:19It decided that in order to maintain the dominance of the United States,
00:57:23it must create a split between Russia and Europe, and Western Europe.
00:57:30And that's why it advanced the NATO into Europe, because it knew that Russia would find it unacceptable
00:57:37to have a NATO on the borders of Russia.
00:57:40And for somebody from America, it should be very easy to understand why.
00:57:44I mean, if we go back to the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, when the Soviet Union put missiles into
00:57:51Cuba,
00:57:53Kennedy said, because he was advised by those military people correctly,
00:57:57if there are Soviet missiles in Cuba, it is militarily impossible to defend the United States,
00:58:04because the flight time of a missile from Cuba to the United States is a few minutes.
00:58:09His military chief says, if you have Soviet missiles in Cuba, we can't defend the United States.
00:58:15And they weren't telling the lie, they were telling the truth.
00:58:18From which Kennedy, therefore, said, in that case, and he said to the Soviet Union,
00:58:25that the missiles must be withdrawn.
00:58:27I prefer that they be withdrawn peacefully, and I will do everything possible to ensure that they are withdrawn peacefully.
00:58:36But if it is necessary to do anything, including nuclear war,
00:58:42I will do it in order to ensure that the missiles are not in Cuba.
00:58:47And he wasn't bluffing.
00:58:49And fortunately, Khrushchev realised that he made an absurd mistake,
00:58:54that a great power will not accept to have missiles and nuclear weapons and missiles so close to its borders,
00:59:00and he took the weapons out.
00:59:02But the distance from Havana to Washington is twice the distance from Kiev to Moscow.
00:59:10In other words, what is unacceptable militarily to the United States is even more unacceptable the other way around for
00:59:17Russia.
00:59:18So Russia repeatedly said it's the red line.
00:59:22We will not accept it.
00:59:24Not only the nuclear weapons, but Ukraine is one of the traditional ways to invade Russia.
00:59:30It's no accident that the Battle of Stalingrad, probably the decisive Battle of World War II,
00:59:37was fought there because the German Nazi army advanced through Ukraine,
00:59:42and therefore they were defeated eventually in Stalingrad.
00:59:45So therefore, it was a red line.
00:59:47Russia said we will not accept the NATO being in Ukraine, end of matter.
00:59:54The United States unfortunately thought they were bluffing, but they weren't bluffing.
00:59:59And even more complicated, because there's a big Russian-speaking minority within the Ukraine.
01:00:05So Russia would not accept it.
01:00:07So therefore, as the United States did not do the sensible thing, which Khrushchev did,
01:00:13which is to the equivalent of withdrawing the missiles,
01:00:17that is to say Ukraine is not going to be in NATO.
01:00:21It will be neutral.
01:00:23The United States insisted upon leaving open the situation for Ukraine being in NATO,
01:00:28whereupon Russia took the option which Kennedy would have chosen if he had no choice,
01:00:35which was he would, in that case, he would have invaded Cuba.
01:00:38And therefore, Russia took its own actions to make sure that Ukraine would not be within NATO.
01:00:45So this whole strategic situation has been a disaster.
01:00:48It has been for the European countries to accept the division of their continent to the benefit of the United
01:00:55States.
01:00:55And this has created the terrible situation which now exists in Europe,
01:00:59because Europe is economically weakened.
01:01:02Germany, which was historically a big, strong economy, has greatly slowed down.
01:01:07There's a great mess in Germany.
01:01:09So as I say, there's slow growth, high inflation, and a big wall.
01:01:13The only way to get out of this situation is to reverse the strategic course.
01:01:18That is to say that Europe has to act independently of the United States
01:01:23and pursue the interests of the European countries and not the interests of the United States.
01:01:29But that will take a long, long political struggle taking place in Europe.
01:01:35And therefore, you have to see the situation in Britain as part of that.
01:01:39At the moment, it would be the economic part of that is it would be totally to Europe's advantage
01:01:45to improve its economic relations with China.
01:01:50And that's the reason why a whole series of European leaders, you know,
01:01:54from most of the major European countries have been visiting China.
01:01:59But the problem is that the United States doesn't want this.
01:02:02So they would have to break with the United States.
01:02:05And I think that China underestimates how much the European governments are subordinated to the United States.
01:02:13Many people in China have said to me, but it's against Europe's interests,
01:02:17against the EU's interest to have such bad economic relations with China.
01:02:22To which I say, yes, it is.
01:02:24It's completely against their interests.
01:02:26Right.
01:02:26But nevertheless, it won't stop them doing it, at least in the short term.
01:02:31And therefore, they don't understand this.
01:02:34And this is, while I greatly respect China, and I know there are different views,
01:02:40my general view is that the Chinese media underestimates the degree to which the European governments,
01:02:49not the populations, there's an increase in opposition to what the US is doing amongst the population.
01:02:54The European governments are subordinated to the United States.
01:02:58And it's what you might call, it looks at too simplistic an economic point of view.
01:03:03It thinks, oh, it's very crazy for Europe to have such bad relations with China or to create problems for
01:03:11China.
01:03:11Therefore, the European governments won't do it.
01:03:14And I'm afraid I don't agree.
01:03:15Therefore, at the moment, with Britain, as the economic situation is bad,
01:03:20Burnham, the new prime minister, will try to improve his economic relationships with China
01:03:26as much as possible without breaking with the United States.
01:03:30But the United States won't allow a break with it.
01:03:33So therefore, unfortunately, I think that the relations between Europe and China
01:03:40and between Britain and China will not greatly improve.
01:03:44I'm sorry to say that.
01:03:46I would prefer that the opposite was the truth.
01:03:49But in dealing with serious matters, that's all you can say.
01:03:53The United States is against Europe acting as a unified way,
01:03:58because that makes Europe as essentially as powerful as the United States,
01:04:02and the United States doesn't want it.
01:04:04So therefore, it's obstructing it.
01:04:06And that is therefore getting in the way of good relationships between Europe and China.
01:04:11I know that, for example, I read the article, because I read the Chinese media every day.
01:04:15There are criticisms of, for example, what the actions that the European Union is taking
01:04:21against China on the economic field.
01:04:23And many articles say that this is completely stupid and against Europe's interests,
01:04:27which it is.
01:04:27But it doesn't stop them doing it.
01:04:33And this was another episode of China Now,
01:04:35a show that opens a window to the present and future of the Asian giant.
01:04:38Hope you enjoyed it.
01:04:39I'll see you next time.
01:04:43I'll see you next time.