00:00Brazil is heading into a crucial presidential runoff that could
00:04determine a country's direction. To discover more about new information
00:08happening in the South American nation, we join our special envoy in Rio de
00:13Janeiro, Belen de los Santos. Hello, Belen.
00:17Hello, Ani. Exactly as you were saying, we're here from Rio de Janeiro at this moment,
00:23and we have some last-minute information. We've been talking about this throughout
00:27the day. The past poll was released today, one of the most prestigious polls that
00:33everyone is looking at, and we just went to, we already commented on the most
00:39important thing that is the main number. This poll is the link that Flavio
00:43Bolsonaro stands in the lead with 45% of the intentions to vote, and Lula da Silva
00:51is right behind me with 44% of the intentions to vote him.
00:56That reduces the difference between the two candidates from 2% to 1%. But one of the
01:04things that the poll is saying, because there was additional information released
01:10throughout the day, and also a more detailed analysis of what this poll is
01:15revealing, is that even though we see this reduction, because everything is within the
01:21margin of error of two percentage points, it's reasonable to still consider it as a technical
01:30tie. That is the most important thing. What we know is that it continues to be a very,
01:36very close rate, one that throughout the days has become closer and closer. But Ani, there is extra
01:42information that is being released with this poll as well. For example, that the number of undecided
01:49people have doubled from the last one. So there is a lot of people who still claim that are undecided
01:59and
01:59who were decided before and now say that they are not sure who they're going to vote for in those
02:06percentage points may be the key to what will happen on Sunday. So that is a very important item to
02:13follow.
02:14Another one is an analysis of where the votes could change. Both candidates have a very high retention rate.
02:22That means that whoever voted for Bolsonaro or voted for Lula in the first round, a huge majority of them
02:29intend
02:30to do the same in the second round, almost 95% of them. Where are the votes going to change
02:37from? Well, from the
02:39ones who voted for third options, so not Lula and not Flavio Bolsonaro, but any of the others like Renan
02:46Santos,
02:47for example, for example, or Gustafuri. Well, between those votes, we have already said this and this poll is
02:54confirming it. Most of them, there's a highest percentage point of them going to Flavio Bolsonaro than to
03:00Lula da Silva. Now, from the people who did not vote in the first round and are intending to vote
03:06in the
03:07second, the symmetry is inversed. More of them are intending to go and vote for Lula da Silva than for
03:16Flavio
03:16Bolsonaro. So that is the situation. Another important point to keep in mind is that although there is no
03:24registration of a lot of change within the main populations involved, there is one specific population
03:32that is increasing its intention to vote for Lula da Silva and decreasing its intention to vote for Flavio
03:39Bolsonaro. And that is the population that is most affected by the social benefits. It's been one of the
03:47main points of the campaign. And in this population, there is growing fear or uncertainty regarding what will
03:55happen in the case that Flavio Bolsonaro gets the president presidency, because you know that there is a
04:01history of that ideological liberal party of cutting back on those social benefits that have marked the
04:09presidencies of Flavio Bolsonaro. So that is among the main points that we are seeing. Again, more detail,
04:17more data to analyze and to see really, Ana, what is going to happen on Sunday. Thanks, Valen, for all
04:24the
04:24information you gave us. And I hope to see you in our coming news brief to have more analysis of
04:31these
04:31upcoming elections. Thank you, Val. We'll be here.
04:35We'll be here.
