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00:03Ultima parte del 2026 tra inflazione, tassi di interesse in aumento e mercati che devono
00:09fronteggiare masse di denaro in entrata del tutto nuove come quelle richieste per gli
00:14investimenti per l'intelligenza artificiale. Qual è l'effetto di tutto questo sui mercati?
00:20Ne parliamo in questa puntata di Stay Live, rimanete con noi, vi aspetto dopo la sigla.
00:46Benvenuti a Stay Live, oggi parliamo delle prospettive del mercato del credito per questa
00:51ultima parte dell'anno e delle implicazioni derivanti dal boom del debito legato all'intelligenza
00:59artificiale. Lo facciamo insieme al nostro ospite, Ciarudatta Scende, Head of Client Portfolio
01:05Management Fixed Income di Candream. Benvenuto a FinancialLounge.com.
01:15Allora, partirei, proprio come avevo anticipato, dal cercare di capire quali sono le prospettive
01:21del mercato del credito per quest'ultima parte dell'anno?
01:27Well, overall, we remain constructive on credit for the rest of the year, although there are
01:33some conditions which are very, very important. Broadly speaking, corporate fundamentals have
01:39generally held up. So, we don't have necessarily a problem in terms of defaults. They are quite
01:46manageable. And the income that is available to investors, meaning the carry or the yield,
01:54is quite substantial. We're in an elevated rate environment and that means that the interest
02:01or the coupon that credit investors are getting is good. Now, at the same time, we have to understand
02:09that this yield comes with a little bit of volatility. Today, a major portion of this yield
02:17comes actually from the sovereign bonds. The additional spread that investors receive
02:23for lending to companies and to credit, so corporates or credit, is, let's say, relatively modest.
02:30So, there is less of a cushion if the issuer disappoints or if the company has problems. Now, you have
02:40elevated rates, you have geopolitical uncertainty, and you have an increased supply in corporate bonds
02:49that is taking place. And those are the conditions that we have to take care of. So, on the one
02:56hand,
02:56good fundamentals are decent, yields are high, that's nice. But at the same time, you know, supply, the amount of
03:05debt, the leverage is increasing. And even though that doesn't mean that overall credit deteriorates, but the
03:14market is becoming more and more discriminating. So, companies with good cash flow, manageable debt,
03:22they should be able to navigate this high-rate environment in a decent manner. But for the weaker
03:31issuers, refinancing means there is additional pressure. It means that, you know, we see that
03:41that owning credit today, especially high-quality credit returns will depend much more on yield than
03:51on spread compression. So, it is a market in which we need to be much more selective, not just on
03:59companies, but also on themes, on sector. If you want to take advantage of this yield, and if you want
04:06to take
04:06advantage of this good carry, then you need to pick your credit properly.
04:13E adesso parliamo dei gruppi tecnologici che stanno ricorrendo sempre di più alle obbligazioni per finanziare
04:22l'intelligenza artificiale. Ecco, qual è l'effetto di questo boom di emissioni obbligazionarie da parte delle
04:29big tech proprio sui mercati del credito?
04:33Yeah, so, that's a very good question in line with what we said earlier, which is supply is increasing.
04:41And this is the whole point of technology companies and the impact that AI and big tech have on the
04:49credit markets today.
04:50AI has already become a bigger financing story for credit markets. Building data centers, securing computing capacity,
05:00securing electricity, network infrastructure, all this requires substantial amount of capital, substantial amount of cash money.
05:10And even the largest technology companies, you know, which, you know, have already funded quite a bit with their own
05:18cash flow,
05:18they are now turned to bond markets to raise debt, to cater to this financing story.
05:26So leverage has increased and should continue to increase.
05:32Now, that doesn't mean that all these companies should be treated as weak. No, you know, clearly many of them
05:41have good businesses,
05:42still can generate some cash flow, but the immediate issue today is the amount of debt that is being asked
05:51to be absorbed by the market.
05:54And it's quite large. And we expect next year to be just as large as this year.
06:00And when these issuers come to the market, investors might demand a better price for these new bonds.
06:10They might demand a higher coupon for these new bonds, and that can also affect the current bonds that are
06:18trading,
06:19because investors will focus on these new bonds and leave less capital available at a given spread for other corporate
06:27issuers.
06:28So, you know, you asked the question, what will be the impact?
06:32We're already starting to see supply have an impact on spreads in U.S.
06:38U.S. tech investment grade is already trading at spreads that are wider to the rest of the market.
06:47So, you know, there is a there's a real important distinction to be made between these, you know, financing a
06:56large, well-established company and financing an individual data center project.
07:02With data centers, because we're talking about tech, we're talking about A.I., investors need to understand, you know, who
07:11will use this capacity, you know, whether power will be available, whether construction will be completed in time.
07:19You know, if the expected return justifies the borrowing and these questions are much more important as the supply grows.
07:30So market still is willing to finance A.I. investment. No problem with that.
07:35But it is less willing to assume every project or every bond and treating it exactly the same as the
07:44other one.
07:45So in our view, this again calls for very careful analysis.
07:49It calls for greater selectivity as well, rather than just as a determination of the entire tech sector.
07:58Overall, the issuance has had an impact on spreads, but it's very case by case basis.
08:05Ecco, in questo contesto che abbiamo descritto, in che maniera un investitore deve posizionare il proprio portafoglio?
08:14So, as I had said earlier, the starting point is the yield, is the coupon, is the income which is
08:22available.
08:22So that's the good part. And that is what today takes us to a credit portfolio which we want to
08:33push forward.
08:34A credit portfolio which we want to invest in, whether it's investment grade or high yield.
08:39But we need to be very careful about where we take the risk.
08:44So how should one portfolio position in this current context?
08:49For Candream, we favor issuers that can generate free, reliable free cash flow, issuers that have manageable levels of debt,
09:00and issuers that have pricing power.
09:03You know, in this environment of high inflation,
09:06issuers that the companies that have the ability to pass on inflation costs to customers are very interesting in our
09:15opinion.
09:15So, high quality investment grade is very appealing to us.
09:20We also see opportunities in some of the crossover credit, the double B rated segments.
09:26That is also interesting to us.
09:29And issuers that where the underlying credit quality supports the additional risk.
09:36That typically is the type of issuer that we want to, you know, really look for.
09:43On the other hand, you know, a company that relies on debt financing, weak issuers,
09:50which still have lots of bonds that are outstanding, high levels of leverage, we want to be very, very careful
09:58with.
09:58And again, the same discipline in this credit cycle we want to maintain on tech and on AI.
10:06And we would assess the borrower.
10:08We want to assess the structure, the assets that are being financed rather than just buy because the project is
10:15connected somehow to AI through a data center.
10:18So, that's where we find it key.
10:22We like investment grade.
10:24We like the portions of high quality, high yield.
10:27We believe that is where the interest lies for the clients.
10:32That is how a portfolio should be constructed.
10:35All the while being very selective and looking at individual risk, not just, I mean, market risk in general is
10:43important.
10:44And there are a lot of things to be careful about, including geopolitics, including, you know, oil and supply chain,
10:50etc.
10:50But the individual issuers risk, how they can pay their coupon, that is extremely important to us.
10:59And if we have a portfolio which has carry and that delivers carry, we also want to be very flexible
11:07to respond when volatility enters into the system.
11:14And so, alongside this carry, this very carefully selected credit, we think that having floating rate notes in the portfolio
11:21can help reduce sensitivity further to interest rates.
11:26And we believe that inflation linked bonds, particularly in Europe, can offer good protection if inflation remains persistent.
11:35So, all in all, a portfolio that is constructed with the objective to earn attractive carry while keeping the portfolio
11:45resilient if market conditions become a little bit more volatile or a little less forgiving.
11:52Un'analisi molto precisa, con anche delle indicazioni molto utili per gli investitori.
11:59Io ringrazio Cerudatta Scende di Candream.
12:03Thank you very much for having me, it was a pleasure.
12:05E ringrazio anche voi per averci seguito.
12:09L'appuntamento è la prossima puntata di Stay Live, sempre su FinancialLounge.com
12:32E ringrazio anche voi per averci seguito.
12:44E ringrazio o hellare a 6 minuti!
12:44Lingrazio i chiun Glossani