00:00Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, no candidate who won the first round has ever failed
00:06to secure the presidency. Can Lula da Silva pull off a historic comeback? Flávio Bolsonaro came
00:12out on top in four regions, including the Southeast, that accounts for 42% of Brazil's
00:18electorate. He outpolled his father, Jair, by more than 5 million votes. Lula da Silva held
00:24on to the Northeast, the Workers' Party's political heartland. Yet his tally declined in all its nine
00:31states. Lula lost 3.4 million votes across 98% of Brazil's municipalities. Flávio flipped more than
00:38700 municipalities where the current president had received the most votes in 2022. Not one of those
00:45that had backed Jair Bolsonaro went to Lula. The shift was not driven by the state capitals. Instead,
00:51it began in smaller municipalities with strong ties to agribusiness. Lula's fortunes rest heavily on
00:58Minas Gerais, widely seen as a bellwether of Brazilian politics. Since the end of military rule,
01:05whoever has won this state has gone on to take the Planalto Palace. Among Brazil's largest battlegrounds,
01:12this is the most closely contested. Of the state's 10 largest cities, only one went Lula's way.
01:18Minas Gerais has a highly diverse social and demographic landscape, making it crucial to
01:24build support across different parts of the state. Stepping up efforts in the Belo Horizonte
01:30metropolitan area is a priority. It's also worth making inroads in rural mid-sized communities near
01:37Goiás, as well as in the state's north, a Workers' Party stronghold where the vote is now split.
01:43Sao Paulo has the country's largest electorate and could prove decisive too. Flávio received 3.4
01:49million more votes than Lula in this state alone, more than the nationwide margin between the two
01:55candidates. The leftist incumbent won the state capitol but saw the right-wing senator gain
02:00traction in greater Sao Paulo. Lula needs to win over voters across a divided metropolitan region
02:07while getting his message through to inland areas where support for Bolsonaro's camp has surged.
02:13Further north, political scientists point to the area around Brasilia as a key opportunity to make
02:19up ground. Analysts expect most voters that back the eliminated candidates to move to Flávio Bolsonaro.
02:26Lula da Silva must head off a large-scale swing towards his rival as he appeals to moderates and
02:31non-voters. This is all the more important, given that poorer Brazilians, who are less likely to turn
02:37out, tend to favor the Workers' Party. Jornos Verdo, Euronews, Lisbon.
