- 2 days ago
Bobby Belt helps preview the Buccaneers ahead of their TNF matchup with the Cowboys. He discussed the Bucs’ defensive front, low pressure, Jalon Daniels, and more.
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00:00We're going to do our own show next week.
00:01It's just going to be me and Bobby.
00:02You know, human beings learn best and most from other human beings.
00:07Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.
00:10Bet the house.
00:11Bet the house.
00:13Oh!
00:13Oh, baby.
00:14Last time he said it, well, you're, I think, one for two.
00:18But that's why I didn't want to take your Giants advice.
00:20Because I'd like for you to see the teams play beforehand.
00:23Last year, I knew the Raiders one was going to hit.
00:26Choppy and I cleaned up.
00:27The Giants one was scary.
00:30Totally unknown.
00:31I lost big on that.
00:32And now I'm feeling great for tonight.
00:34I made three different Kalshi plays.
00:35I would say that, and that's why I got done watching yesterday.
00:40And I sent a note to the group message.
00:42I was like, what's the bet question from this morning again?
00:44I just want a clarity on what we were asking.
00:47And Choppy said, minus seven and a half or minus nine and a half.
00:51I said, either.
00:53Get either.
00:53And see if you can find a little higher.
00:55Like, you can find a little.
00:56Like, if you can find one of those alternate 11 and a half or something.
00:59I've got it.
01:00Tampa Bay is not.
01:02They play one-score games.
01:04I don't have a one-score games, Bobby.
01:05They do play one-score games.
01:06They're not.
01:07This is not as.
01:09I don't feel like this is as overwhelming a discrepancy as I did last year against the
01:14Raiders.
01:14I felt like.
01:15Hang on for a second.
01:16I can get it as high as.
01:18You tell me where you feel.
01:19I saw somebody say 20 and a half.
01:21They had 20.
01:21They found 20 and a half.
01:22I mean, I could find 27 and a half on Kalshi.
01:25I could go 23 and a half, 20 and a half, 17 and a half, 16 and a half, 14
01:29and a half,
01:3013 and a half.
01:3113 and a half I'd look at.
01:33All right.
01:3413 and a half.
01:35I'll take that.
01:37I'm not putting in the official bet.
01:38What's the?
01:39If I bet 100.
01:42That can't be right.
01:43What is it?
01:44Not enough?
01:45Too much?
01:47It doesn't make sense.
01:48I put in 100.
01:49It says I get back 123.
01:52No, that would not make sense.
01:53They watched the same thing I did on tape.
01:55That doesn't make sense.
01:56Okay.
01:56I'll.
01:57Hang on.
01:57Let me try one more time.
01:59All right.
01:59Here we go.
01:59Here we go.
02:00Now what it is.
02:01100.
02:01I would get back 258.
02:04Okay.
02:04Good.
02:05I get $158 in winning if they win by 14 or more.
02:10Yeah.
02:10Look, it's not the.
02:11It is not the overwhelming across the board discrepancy that Cowboys Raiders was where last year when
02:18I looked at it, I was like, this is the first game since the Marshawn Nealon thing.
02:22There's a lot of like different that the Cowboys have not played well.
02:25It's new like players being added to the mix.
02:28There's a lot here that says they, they could go wrong or could make this, but it was like
02:33it, none of it matters.
02:34They'll beat them by 20 because the Raiders are that bad.
02:36And so it was one of those where I felt that way.
02:39This is, I feel pretty comfortable that this will be like a two touchdown win because there's
02:45just so much not working with the Buccaneers right now.
02:49Do you want offense or defense first?
02:50I want the Bucs defense.
02:52All right.
02:52So the Bucs up front, actually their front is really good.
02:57Yeah.
02:57Like I really like their defensive front and I'm not just talking about, you know, obviously
03:02they got Vita Veya, but outside of Veya, A'shawn Robinson destroyed you with the Panthers
03:07last year.
03:08He was, he was one of those guys up front who was just making life hell for the Cowboys.
03:13A'shawn Robinson was really, really good.
03:15And Tyler Smith was in that game.
03:15Yeah.
03:16And A'shawn Robinson played well.
03:17They also had, I think Derrick Brown was in that game too still.
03:20So like it was Derrick Brown, A'shawn Robinson, like they were getting.
03:23He might be like number one PFFD tackle, whatever that means, but you sent last night what they
03:28are against the run.
03:29Yeah.
03:29So they are, real quick, Bobby, they are negative 0.253 rush EPA allowed per play.
03:35They are, that is, that is very, very good.
03:38Third in the NFL.
03:39They are top five in the NFL in total EPA per play allowed.
03:43And they're basically a top 10 team in drop back EPA, close, close to a top 10.
03:51The limiting the damage that Javante would do, like it, it sets up well for them for what
03:57they want to do defensively in terms of stopping the run.
04:00And yeah, the issue that to me that I've found with, with this game, because the metrics really
04:06do like Tampa.
04:07The problem is, is that the sample is part of the sample that you're going to use has
04:13Baker Mayfield as the quarterback, which he was not great either.
04:16Not great, but he's still better.
04:18Yeah.
04:19It's just, so, and we'll get to the offensive side of the ball here in a sec, but on defense,
04:24their front is so good.
04:25But they really do, like, they punch holes up front, they make things clean for the linebackers
04:30to run in there.
04:30Trotter can run free.
04:31Guys can just run downhill, make plays.
04:33They'll stack the box, because Bowles is a blitzing defense.
04:37So because of that, they will put a lot of guys up in the box, up in the line of
04:40scrimmage.
04:40It makes it hard to run on them.
04:42Because A, they've got a lot of bodies in there, and B, they play well up front.
04:48But Vea, A'shaun Robinson, I'll tell you, I don't think I'd ever seen this guy play.
04:53Like, maybe I watched him a little bit in, like, no, a couple years ago in the draft process
05:00when he was coming out of SMU.
05:02Elijah Roberts, 95, one of their rotational guys.
05:05That dude is strong in the rung, and that's a good player.
05:09And that's somebody who it's like, man, if you're not playing for Tampa, I feel like the
05:13tape he's been putting out there, he would be starting most other places, because he's
05:17a good player.
05:17Second year player, late round pick, out of SMU, started at Miami, went to SMU, Buccaneers
05:23took him, but man, he is, I like him a lot.
05:25And so, they stack the box, they wrap up, they tackle well, they don't, you know, they
05:29don't leave a lot on the bone, so to speak, in terms of just missing tackles and leaving
05:34gaps.
05:35But I think Tampa's going to have a tough time slowing down Dallas in the passing game.
05:39And they haven't given up a ton.
05:42They've been more vulnerable in the past than they have against the run, but.
05:45What about the ends for rushing?
05:47So, the way that they rush, they're typically, so because of the blitz packages and different
05:52things that they do, they are, yeah.
05:55Choppy arms.
05:56Yeah, you got Ruben Bain, who's not been good.
05:59So, is the Ruben Bain all-time great draft pre-argument presenting a clear winner?
06:06I mean, not, through four weeks, he's not great.
06:09But, I mean, that's also, he missed last week.
06:12And the other issue is just edge rushers, historically, they don't come in and just, like, take the
06:16league over.
06:17That's where they got to, they get sunned the most, usually, of anywhere else.
06:21But, no, they'll bring, you know, they've got different guys who, that's one of the
06:24big problems, is one of their guys who plays a lot for them right now is Al-Kadeen Mohamed.
06:28Remember him?
06:28He was, like, a practice squad signing from Dallas a couple years ago.
06:33Yaya Diaby is out there.
06:35They've also got, like I said, Bain will come off the edge.
06:37They'll do different things there.
06:38But, they've got to get home with the blitz.
06:40They are the third highest blitz rate in the NFL.
06:43They blitz about a third of the time.
06:45And, even with that third highest blitz rate in the NFL, they don't bring, like, a ton of
06:50pressure.
06:51Like, it's not adding up to their, the amount that they blitz versus the amount that they
06:55actually generate pressure is, would be concerning to us here in Dallas if they did it.
07:00Like, if they were bringing that type of pressure.
07:02And, in fact, I've got to look here.
07:04I believe Dallas is, they might be higher up on the pressure rate right now than Tampa.
07:10They are.
07:13Tampa's 28th.
07:14So, they're bottom five.
07:16And, yet, they're top three in blitz rate.
07:18So, Tampa just doesn't generate a whole lot of pressure.
07:20And, that makes things difficult for what they do in the secondary.
07:24So, they've got some guys in the secondary right now who have some ability.
07:28Jacob Parrish, one of their corners I really liked a couple years ago coming out of Kansas,
07:32Kansas State.
07:34Keontae Scott is one of those 5'7 players that Broaddus was in love with in the draft coming
07:39out of Miami.
07:40He's done some nickel stuff for them.
07:42He's been good.
07:43Zion McCollum is the guy who's going to get George Pickens.
07:46He's their biggest corner.
07:47He's the guy who will play a lot of times up against the bigger physical player.
07:51That's, that's a guy who gets tricked by play action, double moves, route combinations.
07:56It's like, he gets lost, and that's probably going to be the mark this week.
08:01And so, I would say, if you got Pickens in fantasy, I'd start him, because I think this
08:05is a good game where they probably, I mean, you're going to start him no matter what.
08:08No, but I'd lean into like, Bobby sent us, he said, give me the Pickens prop bets, and
08:13he circled three things on there, and I was like, ooh-wee, ooh-wee.
08:17Yeah, because I would say that, because he's not producing yet for my first place fantasy team.
08:20They want, they, Dallas wants to get him involved.
08:22They're, they're looking for opportunities to get him involved.
08:24They want to be able to do it.
08:26So, I got to imagine looking at things this week, they're looking to go, man, matchup
08:30wise, that's going to be ripe for us if we want to do this.
08:34So, Tampa struggles with play action.
08:37They don't get, it doesn't get run on them a ton, but play action passing, different
08:41double moves.
08:42The safeties are routinely suckered in by a lot of that stuff, by a lot of the eye candy.
08:47They'll crash down on plays, and they'll kind of leave things vulnerable in the middle
08:51of the field.
08:51So, man, I think with the way the safeties play and the way Zion McCollum plays, this
08:55could be a big week for George Pickens to really break out, but they don't, like I said,
09:01they don't generate a lot of pressure.
09:02They're not helping out that secondary very much in that sense.
09:05And I think that Dallas is going to be ramming their head into a brick wall if they try to
09:08run the game, like if they try to lean into the running game.
09:11It's not impossible for this to go poorly for them against the Buccaneers, but the way it
09:16goes poorly for them is doing things themselves that ruined this.
09:21So, like some sort of caveman banging a thing against the wall of like, we're going to run
09:29the ball.
09:29We got to establish the run instead of just saying, no, expose the weakness.
09:32Just go after Tampa Bay's weakness and soften things up because the box is going to be stacked
09:37and they will be really physical with your front in the run game and make it really difficult
09:41for you to pick up anything more than like three yards of carry.
09:43So that's the defense, the offensive side of the ball, Jalen Daniels, God bless him.
09:51This is not going to be easy for him as long as he has to be in there.
09:55So, yeah, the Cowboys get right defensive game.
09:59The Buccaneers, Dallas will finally get an interception this week.
10:04Dallas will be able to generate pass rush this week.
10:08This is, you all told me that against Houston.
10:11I don't think I told you that.
10:13I don't think I said they generate a bunch of pressure.
10:15All right.
10:15I thought it was like CJ takes sacks on their offensive line.
10:18If you're not getting it this week, you're in trouble.
10:21They can't run the ball and he's a pocket passer.
10:23So the thing with CJ was just like, make sure you're handling your stuff in the run game
10:27and then bring pressure, bring extra blitzers.
10:29This is an instance where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers right now are allowing the fifth highest pressure
10:33rate in the NFL.
10:34They are the highest sack rate in the NFL.
10:36Teams blitz Tampa at the eighth highest rate in the NFL because they get in here, they see these
10:40matchups and they go, oh, we can overwhelm them because their backs and the interior of their
10:45offensive line is so bad in terms of protecting the quarterback.
10:49The backs are the worst I've seen in the NFL this year in terms of blitz pickup.
10:52They're bottom with Bucky Irving and the guys that they run out there.
10:56But Jalen Daniels, with all the pressure that they bring on him, he's a young player who
11:02was already not going to probably have a lot of success just jumping in and having to play
11:07quarterback right away.
11:08But awful in pass protection, not ready to play right now.
11:12They even try to keep extra blockers in for him.
11:14They'll try to get these quick screen throws out for him.
11:17Chris Godwin, when you think of Chris Godwin as a receiver, you think of like, oh, that's
11:21a guy who can get you some chunk yards and hurt you.
11:24Chris Godwin right now is averaging, he's got to be 32 years old, 3.4 air yards per target.
11:32That is two yards less than Jake Ferguson.
11:36Oh, that's the kind of way they're using him in the office.
11:39Yeah.
11:39I think of Godwin as old and broken down, but with a Mecca, after last year, I was like,
11:47all right, I'm getting him on fantasy.
11:49And I know he faded in the second half and now he doesn't have Baker, but I'm not, he
11:52ain't doing nothing for me.
11:53No, he ain't doing nothing for me.
11:55He looks like Jag out there.
11:56Just a guy.
11:57Like he is so, like there's nothing about him that seems threatening right now within
12:02their offense.
12:03This is, honestly, they will do, you remember when Dak was young, they used to do the play
12:07action boot throws all the time of just, let's get him comfortable.
12:10Let's do play action.
12:11Roll him out.
12:11No pressure.
12:12Easy toss to the tight end.
12:14And then we'll pick it.
12:15They try to do some of that with him.
12:16They try to get the quick throws off.
12:17It's just really difficult to give him enough time to do anything.
12:20And even when he's not getting hurried, it's, it's hard for him to be able to read everything
12:25NFL defenses want to do to confuse a quarterback.
12:27And so there was an interception he threw.
12:30I think it was last week where he was, he was looking at the defender that picked it up.
12:36Like it was drop back, hit the back heel, release it.
12:40And the defender was squatting and knew as soon as he saw him hit the back heel, broke
12:44on it.
12:45Ball gets thrown.
12:46It was like a six yard hitch that got picked off.
12:49And it's because he just, he doesn't see a lot of these things right now.
12:52And when the pressure's in his face, he will run backwards and he will just like, get it
12:58away from me.
12:59Like throw it.
13:00And it gets, it, it, he puts the ball in some wild positions.
13:04Smear the Buccaneer.
13:04Smear the Buccaneer is exactly what it is.
13:06Jesse Holley, I heard him say yesterday, uh, he is going to throw it in traffic and he
13:11is not going to be deterred by interception one.
13:13No.
13:14He is not going to be deterred by interception two.
13:17No.
13:17He is going to throw it, which my little cowboy fear of this in a primetime game is like
13:22your, your Brett Favre Raider chunk and heave it in the zone moment where you just
13:28heave them up and you start landing some of these miracles and start feeling like you're
13:32in the zone.
13:34And here's where Jesse is, he's kind of wrong.
13:37The Cow, there is no traffic with the Cowboys defense.
13:40It's just wide open throws.
13:41That's right.
13:42So this Buccaneers offense, when we talk about EPA per play, they are dead last in the NFL.
13:46They are worse than Minnesota.
13:48They are worse than Miami.
13:49They are the worst offense in football by far.
13:51And it's because they are so bad throwing the ball.
13:54They've got, they've had some success.
13:56They've shown some stuff on tape that says they could run the ball if they would be committed
13:59to it.
13:59They're just not really committed to it.
14:02They're, they're still trying to throw the ball.
14:03That's where they've Mecca Bucca.
14:05They've got Chris Godwin.
14:06They've got Ted Hurst, second round pick out of Georgia state that they like.
14:09Something's got to give here.
14:10This is something where it's like, yeah, the way the Cowboys lose this game, if they were
14:14to lose it would be you try to just ram your head into a wall and have issues running
14:21the ball and you're just being stubborn.
14:23And then you have to start throwing to play catch up and they're teeing off on you on
14:26the blitz and you're like turning the ball over and having issues with that.
14:30And on the other side of the ball with Tampa, it would be Tampa decides they're going to
14:34commit to running the ball.
14:35They're going to try to exploit the run game like other teams have in a way that they haven't
14:38before.
14:39And then in the passing game, it's Ted Hurst.
14:42I know people are going to talk about Mecca and they're going to talk about Chris Godwin.
14:46Ted Hurst is the guy that, that's their YOLO guy.
14:50Rookie out of Georgia state, really good athlete.
14:52That dude, like I saw in the numbers yesterday, I was looking, I was like, there's no way this
14:56is true.
14:57He had already gotten a sizable amount of targets this year.
15:00I mean, it's not like top elite, but I mean, he's got like, I think it's 16, 17 targets
15:05through four games.
15:06So four or five passes a game.
15:07His air yards per target is 18.
15:10They are throwing the ball 40 yards down the field to him three times a game.
15:14And so that's the one where it's like, okay, the way you lose this game is if you're not
15:17able to generate pressure against the Buccaneers, like everybody else in the world, and they're
15:21just YOLO balling it and you're having trouble communicating.
15:25Ted Hurst beats you for two touchdowns.
15:27And then you're also ramming your head on the offensive side.
15:30That's how they would lose.
15:31But all of that is just shooting yourself in the foot.
15:33Yeah, but my fear, the way for them to lose, and I took RJ's overplay as well, is Jalen
15:41Daniels running around all night and limited possessions for you again, where like Tampa
15:49may not be scoring, but Jalen Daniels scampers and the over under on the rush yards is like
15:5344 and a half.
15:55You know, y'all say he can run and he extend drives and you are limited with them.
16:00And Brian Schottenheimer talked about Daniels running.
16:03He said, you know, some guys just take off outside the tackles and run.
16:08He said, Jalen Daniels up and then outside.
16:11Scoot up and then outside as Daniels is the first rookie quarterback to start a game in
16:17the NFL this year, which nobody would have had as a prediction.
16:22No, I mean, yeah, like something's got to give here.
16:24Their offense is terrible.
16:25Cowboys defense is terrible.
16:27It's like 31st in some metrics and their ability to rush the passers is damn near at the
16:33bottom.
16:34So something's going to have to give.
16:35I'm going to find my own parlay to build.
16:37I'm going to like, because there are all these things that I think people still assume
16:40that are right to assume.
16:41But like, I would still go under on 44 on Daniels because he's he goes, he runs backwards
16:47like it shot.
16:48He's right.
16:48He doesn't widen it out.
16:49And that's what hurts him as well.
16:50When he's getting pressure because he just goes backwards.
16:53Yeah, I just I think that this matches up really well for Dallas and it's not a 0% chance
16:59that Dallas loses.
17:00They could lose the game.
17:02I don't think that's likely because they would have to do everything to themselves on both
17:06sides of the ball for four quarters.
17:07If that kills the blitz.
17:09And that's what Sandler texted.
17:11Bucks last in EPA per drop back.
17:13No win field.
17:14Dak good against the blitz and single high.
17:16That is what Tampa likes to do.
17:18And our buddy Merrill Hodge on the OG football show talking about Dak reaching new levels
17:24after the Texans game.
17:25Well, it wasn't until I went back and watched the tape.
17:28And I thought Dak Prescott, unbelievable.
17:30You know, just like ridiculously powerful, accurate, on time, decisive.
17:35I don't think he made one bad decision the entire game.
17:38I'll give you a guy that is playing right now that is the epitome of this is Aaron Rodgers.
17:42Like if you watch Aaron play, like from the pocket, it is precision all over the place.
17:46I mean, and seldom does he ever throw it to the wrong person.
17:50But that's 22 years of experience.
17:51I mean, Dak is starting to move up into that regime.
17:54You know, he's been around a while.
17:55And I will tell you this.
17:57If there was ever a game since he started his career that really stood out to me as like,
18:02okay, he's now at an elite level.
18:04It was that game.
18:05He was going exactly where the defense told him to go the entire game.
18:08The only guy that was usually open was the one Dak went to.
18:12Because everybody else was blanket.
18:13Everything else was covered.
18:14There was very few options.
18:16You know, that's why when you really see the seasoning of a quarterback and the experience
18:21of one and someone that's really, you know, in an elite level is when they can process like that.
18:27They know and they do it rapidly and efficiently.
18:30And I didn't see one play through that entire game where he made a mistake.
18:35You know, he ate the ball when he needed to.
18:38And towards the end, that's when he made some of his best throws.
18:40And that's what you have to do.
18:43It seems a little questionable.
18:46Like, he starts out, he's praising Dak.
18:48And I'm like, okay, okay.
18:49And he's like, in fact, the only guy who might be playing better is Aaron Rodgers.
18:52And I'm like, uh-oh.
18:53Well, I don't know about playing just in terms of like...
18:55No, I know.
18:56Decision.
18:56Like making sure he's not putting it anywhere.
18:58But it is like funny to like at this stage to be talking about Rodgers in comparison.
19:02But Dak was...
19:03Seeing it all.
19:03Dak's been good with delivering the ball.
19:06And I mean, that aspect does make sense in that there was a clip of Jason Garrett talking
19:13to Aaron Rodgers recently where Aaron was talking about Dak.
19:16And he was like, he's like, that's probably my favorite quarterback to watch because of
19:21the way that he goes through like the process and looks and plays on time.
19:24And he's like, I feel like he drops back the same way I did.
19:28And so there's a little bit of...
19:29Rodgers sees some of that comparison himself.
19:32Did you see, Aiden, the Rodgers-McCarthy follow-up clip yesterday?
19:36God, what a jackass Aaron is.
19:39Gosh, I can't wait for him to get divorced again.
19:43All right.
19:43Why is McCarthy not the jackass?
19:46He's wearing the wedding ring on the field.
19:48I know.
19:49It's very Ryan Fitzpatrick.
19:50That's gotta be...
19:51I know he's pranking everyone.
19:52Has to be.
19:53Yeah.
19:53He's gonna come out and say, ha ha, I got y'all.
19:55The only one we've seen do that is...
19:56You didn't see me in Nobu Malibu with her, did you?
19:59No.
20:00Malibu.