00:00Time for best bets and big game picks here with some big games coming up in the SEC.
00:06No surprise, noon kick, miss state and Alabama.
00:10Man, oh man, Kamario Taylor versus Keelan Russell.
00:13This feels like maybe the biggest game on this slate.
00:16And I know sometimes people, oh, I wish it was under the lights.
00:19No, no, we get it right away, man.
00:20All right, we finish up here and we get a massive game in the SEC right away
00:25between two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in this sport.
00:28Dave, what do you like here?
00:30What stands out to you heading into this one?
00:33Points, points and more points.
00:34You have two of the most exciting quarterbacks in Kamario Taylor out there
00:37and Keelan Russell, who I've been on all season.
00:40Alabama and Mississippi State have been two of the best offenses in the country,
00:43but hidden behind that is some bad defensive play as well.
00:47Alabama's defense has not been good.
00:49You saw what Florida State did to them.
00:50They're 120th in the nation in preventing big plays.
00:54They allowed 9.8 points per pass.
00:57Taylor's going to pick that apart.
00:59I like a lot of points.
01:00I got it at 60.5.
01:01I know it's up to 62.5 in some places.
01:03I'd play it up to 63, but I think we get somewhere in the neighborhood
01:07of about a 34-30 game tonight, today.
01:10I am on the Mississippi State team total over at 27.5.
01:17Of course, I think Alabama can get there,
01:19but right now with what I've seen from these teams,
01:21I actually trust the Mississippi State spot a little bit more.
01:25The Crimson Tide's pass defense, almost eight yards per pass attempt allowed,
01:30including allowing Ashton Daniels of FSU to go for 13 per pass, almost 400 yards.
01:36That's unacceptable here.
01:38I think Kamario Taylor, any script, leading, trailing, has a big game here,
01:42and we get ourselves over the 27.5.
01:46Sticking in the SEC, it's Mizzou, it's Florida.
01:50It's a 5.5-point number here, man, that the Gators are laying on the road
01:53after really establishing themselves last week.
01:56I am on the under at 57.5 because I think the Missouri defense
02:01can show up here, relatively speaking,
02:04and surprise Florida a little bit.
02:07Start this thing off slow.
02:09Though, Dave is on the other side,
02:12and I do wonder if he's already kind of spotted the script
02:16of at the end of the first 30, I feel great,
02:20and at the end of the full 60, he feels fantastic.
02:25And that's what happened in the Auburn game.
02:27I had the over in that one.
02:28At the end of the first half, I was like,
02:30oh, we're going to need some points.
02:31Florida Auburn put up points last week against Ole Miss.
02:34It was not a huge first half.
02:36They went toe-to-toe, Ollie Frazier in the second half
02:39and put up a lot of points.
02:40I like the over in this one because of the Florida defense
02:43has given up 21-plus points to every FC, FBS team they've played,
02:4821 to FAU, 28 to Ole Miss, 39 to Auburn.
02:52They've given up in chunks in the fourth quarter as well.
02:55I think even if Florida blows Missouri out,
02:58Missouri will get to 20 to 21 points.
03:00I think Florida gets to 40, and you talked about Missouri's defense.
03:04That would be a win for Missouri holding Florida to the 40,
03:07considering what they've put up this year.
03:09If Florida gets to 40, Missouri will get to 20,
03:12and you're getting over 56, 57-and-a-half.
03:15I like the over.
03:16I would lay Florida, but it is a tough spot on the road.
03:19The backdoor touchdown comes into play.
03:21We're not talking two-and-a-half like we were last week with Ole Miss.
03:24This is five-and-a-half on the road.
03:26You were talking about wanting to get seven.
03:28I'll put this one somewhere in the neighborhood of, let's say,
03:3134-25-type finish.
03:34All right, and then we get Ohio State and Iowa,
03:38a 14-and-a-half point spread that the Buckeyes are laying on the road.
03:45Dave, if you were to be playing this game, how would you look to play it?
03:49I would play the under in this one.
03:51I don't think Iowa gets to double digits.
03:53It's just not – it's step-up in competition.
03:56You look what they did against Michigan.
03:58They scored late, and they had a kickoff return.
04:01Ohio State's even better.
04:02If Iowa breaks 10, I think that's a win for them.
04:05I think Ohio State still gets the 27 points.
04:08I would play the under.
04:09I want to lay the 14-and-a-half because I think this finish is 27-10.
04:14It's just tough to do in that environment on the road.
04:16So, for us to play, I'd go under.
04:19For me, I am going under.
04:22And, in fact, that's my favorite pick on our slate today here, guys.
04:26This is a spot where the totals climbed about a touchdown when you compare it to Iowa-Michigan.
04:30And people would say, of course it has.
04:32Look at the Ohio State offense.
04:34Yeah, but it's also possible the Ohio State defense is better than that of Michigan's.
04:40And here is what I think that this is just the perfect way to play Iowa off of the game
04:46against Michigan, where they offensively put up numbers they didn't deserve, you know, kick return touchdowns, tip passes, last-second
04:56game winners.
04:58And defensively, I think they're going to really look to respond.
05:02They allowed Bryce Underwood to average 10 yards per pass attempt.
05:07And many people believe, well, then what is Julian saying and Jeremiah Smith going to do?
05:12I think that's what Iowa's saying here this week.
05:14And I think they force Ohio State to run the football a little bit more as well.
05:18So, we're going to go under the 45-and-a-half.
