00:00Ohio State and Iowa, it is a Big Ten battle.
00:04Ohio State, despite a loss, ranked fifth in the country.
00:07I have no problem with that.
00:09They lost by a point at what is right now the number one ranked team in the country.
00:12I think that that is totally fine.
00:15Actually, I guess you can't rank them ahead of time.
00:17It doesn't matter.
00:18It doesn't matter.
00:19It doesn't matter.
00:19We're certainly nowhere ready, I think, for that converse.
00:22We could handle it, but no one else is.
00:23It doesn't matter.
00:26Iowa, 14th.
00:27Win at Michigan.
00:29Win that, I know, both myself and Dave celebrated quite a bit last week,
00:33as we really did like the Hawkeyes on this show.
00:38And it feels nice when you steal one.
00:40And we kind of did.
00:42Well, I mean, they had the cover, right?
00:44They had the cover.
00:45But, again, they even somewhat stole the cover, probably.
00:48It's a crazy, crazy program.
00:51They run the kicking decisions.
00:54You know what you're signing up for, but they're still infuriating at times.
00:58Just, what was your big takeaway?
01:00Let's start here with Iowa's win at Michigan last week.
01:05You know, I've been on this program every week saying that Michigan's not good.
01:09So, I had Iowa winning.
01:10I even had Iowa winning outright.
01:12So, I did steal that one.
01:13I had that in a parlay of Moneyline teams.
01:18They shouldn't have been the struggle that they had.
01:20I know that's Iowa.
01:21That's what they do.
01:21But, the team couldn't score in the first half.
01:23And it took until late action for them to even wake up.
01:26You do that this week versus the Buckeyes.
01:29The game is over.
01:29So, you can get away with sleepwalking versus Michigan because Michigan sleepwalks every week.
01:36And go steal one at the end.
01:38And, Kevin, may I add, the biggest ball doesn't lie thing that we've seen a month later.
01:45But, ball don't lie as Michigan loses with one second left on the clock.
01:49What I took away from that is Iowa is good enough to go on the road and win a big,
01:54big 10 game at Ann Arbor.
01:56But, I also look at it as if you play that style of offense, which Iowa does, and you don't
02:02get out there and score points, you have zero chance of beating Ohio State.
02:06Now, the game is at home.
02:08It is different.
02:09That's a very tough place to play, as Ohio State knows, from many years ago when they got blown out.
02:14This team is much better than the team that got blown out of Iowa last time they played.
02:19Iowa needs to come with some semblance of an offense.
02:23They're not going to win this game 7-3.
02:25They're not.
02:25They're not going to win this game 2-0, which I know they want to do.
02:28They need to score probably 17-20 points to win this game.
02:34The question is, can they score 17-20 points?
02:38And I think the answer to that very valid question is absolutely not.
02:45They can play eight quarters, and I think there is no world in which this offense shows up.
02:51They got 20 put up on the board against Michigan.
02:53Of course, we all saw the final six points off the last second touchdown.
02:58They also had a kick-return touchdown.
03:00Guys, you know, I posed in the breakdown, what if the Iowa rush offense is good?
03:06My bad.
03:07Not good.
03:08Not good.
03:09102.5 yards per carry against the Michigan Wolverines.
03:13You're like, oh, well, is Hank Brown good?
03:15No.
03:16I promise you he's not.
03:18There were miracle catches throughout.
03:20Again, it was great to cash a ticket on the Hawkeyes.
03:23So the question becomes, how do you attack a game where Iowa, right, you're like, they're going to play slow.
03:31They're going to muddy it up.
03:33At home, two-and-a-half touchdowns.
03:35What do you do here?
03:37I'm playing the under.
03:38At 45-and-a-half, I think this game stays well under the listed total.
03:44I don't know if the Hawkeyes do crack double digits in this game.
03:49You know, if this thing gets, if 35-10 is like the max, and I really don't think it even
03:56gets there.
03:56I think an Ohio State shutout is on the board here in this game.
04:01I understand that the Ohio State defense has some questions, but so far the pass defense is playing better than
04:10the run defense, which is good.
04:11Because I think last week we saw, okay, the Iowa rush attack was more so picking on weak opponents.
04:16It's not going to be super efficient.
04:17It's going to burn the clock.
04:18I think that works great.
04:19As far as the question really becomes, if somebody betting this under, can Ohio State get there on their own?
04:26I think that is disrespectful to Iowa.
04:28I understand Bryce Underwood had a really big game last week throwing through the air.
04:31They had multiple pass catchers on Michigan over 100 yards.
04:35Iowa were probably selling out.
04:37I think you would agree, Dave, to stop the run, right?
04:39Stop Bryce Underwood using his legs.
04:41This week, they're going to sell out to stop Jeremiah Smith.
04:44I mean, they might pure double cover this guy.
04:46Like, playground, LOL, are you really lining two guys up like there's another guy wide open, double Jeremiah Smith with
04:54123.5 receiving yards prop here.
04:57I think this is an under.
04:58Again, 27-7, 31-7.
05:01I think it's low scoring.
05:03I think it's Ohio State, but I like the under 45.5 in this game.
05:08Yeah, I think you're looking at 27-10, 31-3 type situation.
05:12Now, when I first wanted to bet this game, and you and I do the same thing, we watch what
05:16we see on Saturday nights, and we immediately think about what we want to do the next week, and we're
05:19waiting for the line to post.
05:21Every part of me was waiting to go bet Ohio State.
05:23Because, yes, Iowa won, but they had lucky at the end, and they had the punt return.
05:27And I'm thinking, this team is not going to score against Ohio State, so I'm going to lay the points.
05:31Then I saw 14.5, and I went, ooh, not a guy who lays 14.5 on the road in
05:39a big conference game.
05:40And I actually went back and looked up the numbers.
05:43Nine times since 1995, you've had a top 15 matchup where the road team is favored by 14 or more.
05:50So this would be the 10th time it's happened in the last 30 years.
05:54The favorite has won every single time, 9-0, but they've only covered twice, 2-7 against the spread.
06:00Take what that, what you want.
06:02These are different teams.
06:03This is not 1995.
06:04I get it.
06:05Filter through the noise is my mantra.
06:07But we have seen top 15 battles with one team significantly better.
06:12They win but don't cover.
06:14So when I saw the 14.5, I paused, and I'm with you on the under.
06:18Now, do I think Ohio State can get there by themselves?
06:21Maybe.
06:21Maybe, but I don't have any confidence that Iowa's going to score in double digits in this game.
06:26I would play the Iowa team total under, which is 13.5.
06:29Again, a dicey number to go at 13.5.
06:32But at the same time, you get a punt return or a scoop six, and all of a sudden, your
06:36thing's out the door.
06:37Because the team didn't score 14 on offense, but they got some help.
06:42Last week, Iowa had no points on offense until the end of the game.
06:45I like your under there.
06:48I think Ohio State takes care of business because when you have number six and number four on the same
06:52side, Michigan has none of that.
06:55Michigan's not dialing up a 47-yard touchdown pass to Jeremiah Smith.
07:00Ohio State can do that versus Iowa defense.
07:03I would look at it as about 27 to 10 is where I'm landing.
07:06Yeah, and that's one of the things that's kind of stood out to me, right?
07:09If you look here, the Ohio State team total into the 30s, you know, when they made the trip to
07:13Austin, that was, you know, 23.5, 24.5.
07:18This is about a touchdown higher.
07:19Is the Texas defense that much better than Iowa's necessarily?
07:22I think this is a really good spot, guys, to sell this total and play it towards the under.
