00:00The expected cost of the social care reform along the lines of what Andy Burnham has proposed is believed to
00:08be about 18 billion pounds per year.
00:12Therefore, scrapping or moving away from the triple lock would raise a very, very small fraction of the necessary expenditure,
00:22at least in the first few years or decade.
00:26That means that funding the entitlement to social care would need other cuts or tax rises on top of changes
00:37to the triple lock.
00:38You would generally expect that if national insurance or income tax were to increase, that would disproportionately affect Londoners because
00:49they're more likely to be in work and and indeed earning higher salaries than people in other parts of the
00:57country.
00:57But if it was a social care levy that looked a little bit like employee national insurance or employee national
01:02insurance plus pension income, you'd still expect that to more affect middle and higher income people.
01:12Younger workers and middle aged workers in particular are more likely to have higher incomes than than pensioners.
01:22The devil is really going to be in the detail here exactly what they do and exactly what tax instrument
01:31they use.
01:32But in general, you would expect most direct tax rises to affect higher owners are more likely to be in
01:38London, more likely to be middle aged.
