00:00In India's growth story, today, the whole world has no predictions for the whole world.
00:05Today, global banks are doing reports of different reports.
00:09In September 2026, India's growth has made a big difference in global institutions.
00:16S&P Global has made its focus of 6.6% and Moody's has made its focus of 6.6%.
00:29If you listen to the world bank, you will be surprised.
00:34The world bank has made its focus of 6.3%.
00:40But today, the question is, is that India's growth of 7% or 6.6%?
00:47The question is, is that the growth of upgrades?
00:50Is it even more important than India's growth?
00:54The question is, is that global risk?
00:54The question is, what is the impact of investors?
01:01First of all, let's understand the picture.
01:03Let's understand the picture.
01:06S&P Global has made its growth focus of 6.6% and 7% in India's growth focus.
01:15Moody's has made its focus of 6% and 7% in India's growth focus.
01:21The Fitch estimate is 6.9%.
01:24World Bank has made its focus of 6.6% in India's growth focus.
01:31The Fitch estimate is 6.7% in India's growth focus.
01:38The Fitch estimate is 6.7%.
02:04Again, the Fitch estimate means they are grand Peter's growth focus.
02:07The Fitch's growth focus is in 4% in India's growth focus.
02:10The Fitch sichers focus of 5% in India's growth focus.
02:17The Fitch estimate is the big risk to 95% in India's growth focus.
02:20The Fitch estimate is 1%.
02:24In terms of uncertainty, domestic spending has supported the growth of domestic spending.
02:29Another big factor is investment and capix cycle. Infrastructure manufacturing, private investment,
02:36all these activity growth has been seen in Indian economy.
02:41Now, to the third factor, external shocks is the result of the Indian economy's resilience.
02:47Middle East tensions and oil prices have increased risk.
02:51But now, domestic demand has been absorbed by these shocks.
02:58The fourth factor is exports and free trade agreements.
03:02The global trade environment is not easy.
03:04India has new trade agreements and export opportunities for external demand.
03:11The fifth factor is service sector.
03:15IT and financial services.
03:17Service sector, Indian economy has also been made a big growth engine.
03:23These are the factors that World Bank and Moody's institutions have more confidence in India's growth.
03:30But here is an interesting difference.
03:34IMF is now a little cautious.
03:36We have told you in the beginning.
03:38In July, IMF has the growth of 2027, FI 27 growth focus, 6.4%
03:44in India's growth growth.
03:46This is the impact of the global environment.
03:46The global environment, Middle East conflict, energy prices and global growth slowdown.
03:50The overall message is the best of India's growth growth.
03:58It is the best of the global growth growth.
04:03The global growth growth growth is the best of the global growth growth.
04:07Now, we are going to compare the S&P and RBI of the RBI estimates.
04:17The S&P has 27 growth of the RBI, but the RBI is 6.7%.
04:25The S&P estimate is 30 basis points.
04:30The growth forecast is not important.
04:33The interest rates are not important.
04:35The S&P seems that the RBI is 25 basis points.
04:41If the current repo rate is 5.25%, then it will be 5.50% to go.
04:49The question is that when growth is strong, then rate hike is why?
04:54Because with strong growth, inflationary pressure can be passed.
04:59The crude oil prices and food inflation are very important.
05:03The S&P assessment is that if inflationary pressure is increased, RBI will be tight.
05:10The RBI is now fixed in neutral stance.
05:14In August MPC meeting, repo rate is 5.25% unchanged.
05:18The RBI is in wait and watch mode.
05:21The rate hike is possible and the rate cut is possible.
05:24But now there is no commitment to RBI is not done.
05:28The next big point is that in October 5-7 MPC meeting.
05:33What is RBI policy in this scenario?
05:37This is the most important question.
05:40If growth is 7%.
05:43Global banks, if Indian growth will be 7%.
05:47So, what will your portfolio be?
05:50What will your portfolio be?
05:51What will your portfolio be?
05:52What will your portfolio be?
05:53If you want to talk about equity,
05:54then strong economic growth,
05:55the earnings and investment cycle can be a supportive environment.
05:59Infrastructure, capital goods, manufacturing, banking,
06:02growth linked areas.
06:05But this means that every stock or every sector will automatically perform good.
06:12Market valuation, earnings and interest rates are equally important.
06:16If you are a debt investor,
06:18then your picture is slightly different.
06:20If there is a rate hike in the future,
06:22then there will be pressure on the bond yields.
06:24And the existing bond prices will be pressure on the existing prices.
06:27In this scenario,
06:28the situation in this environment,
06:29the duration risk is important.
06:31So, investors will not only see high returns,
06:33but also interest rates and sensitivity.
06:36If we talk about gold,
06:38then global uncertainty,
06:39inflation,
06:40geopolitical risk,
06:41and geopolitical risk.
06:43This means that strong Indian growth doesn't mean gold.
06:48And in real estate,
06:49strong economic growth demand can be supported.
06:52But if borrowing costs are increased,
06:54then home loans and financing costs can be affected.
06:58Now, let's see an interesting comparison.
07:00S&P India's growth is 7%.
07:04Moody's is 7%.
07:06Fitch is 6.9%.
07:08RBI is 6.7%.
07:11World Bank is 6.6%.
07:13IMF is 6.4%.
07:15Yarni estimates,
07:16estimates are less.
07:17But if we look at the broader message,
07:19that India's domestic economy,
07:20now even in global uncertainty,
07:22relatively,
07:24relatively,
07:24has been very strong.
07:25And this is probably the biggest signal.
07:28But one thing,
07:28investors need to keep in mind,
07:30growth forecasts,
07:31no guarantee.
07:32This is available data and assumptions,
07:34is a way of providing estimates.
07:36Oil prices,
07:37inflation,
07:38monsoon,
07:39global trade,
07:40geopolitical tension,
07:42and monetary policy,
07:42factors as well.
07:44This is also the forecast.
07:44Forkast also,
07:47the forecast can be changing.
07:47Forkast also,
07:48as well as the GDP,
07:48the Fitch,
07:49and Moody's has been around 7%.
07:52That investment decision,
07:55will not be right to be respond.
07:57The question is,
07:58आपको ये देखना है कि growth का फायदा कि in companies की earnings में दिखाई देता है,
08:02valuations कितने reasonable है और interest rate environment किस direction में जा रहा है,
08:07क्योंकि अगर India 7% से grow करता है लेकिन valuations बहुत ज्यादा है तो market reaction अलग होगा,
08:13वही अगर earnings growth मजबूत रहती है और valuation support करती है तो picture अलग होगी,
08:18अब आगे सबसे बड़ा test होगा, क्या domestic demand इसी pace से बनी रहेगी,
08:23crude और inflation का pressure कितना बढ़ेगा और RBI interest rate को किस direction में ले जाएगा,
08:28यानि growth story मजबूत दिख रही है, लेकिन investors के लिए अगला बड़ा सवाल सिर्फ GDP growth नहीं है,
08:34सवाल यह है कि इस growth का असर corporate earnings पर, interest rates पर और आखिरकार आपके portfolio पर कितना
08:42पढ़ने वाला है?
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