“THERE WON’T BE ANY MOBILISATION” says Putin - but he has already Ordered it. - video Dailymotion

Artur Rehi

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Transcript

00:00My friends, in this video we talk only and only about the Russian mobilization,

00:04the mobilization that is supposed to start right now, at this day, or a few days after this.

00:10First of all, the context. How do we know that Russia is going to mobilize or declare a new

00:15mobilization? Well, first of all, their army is shrinking. They're actually losing more men

00:19than they are recruiting into the army ever since 2026. There has been about half of the

00:25months that the Russian army has shrunk. Net men number has shrunk because of the losses on the

00:30front. Secondly, how you know Russia is going to do something because they're going to feverishly

00:36and aggressively deny it. Recently there have been insanely aggressive denies from the public

00:43Kremlin sources, from Putin himself, also on the Kremlin bot networks, massive comments online,

00:50on YouTube videos, on X accounts, how Russia doesn't need mobilization and they will not

00:54declare it. Why would they do that? Million reasons for it. This is how you know they're going to

01:00mobilize. We're going to watch many videos today, many sources, how the Russian public reacts to this,

01:06but before a little bit of context. We all remember 2022 September mobilization. It was a catastrophe.

01:14All of the registers in the Russian military commissariat were on paper, physically present at the

01:19commissariat buildings. So youngsters actually set these commissariat buildings on fire quite often,

01:25destroying the registries, confusing everybody at the top. They didn't have any digitalized

01:30registries. Well now they do. They have modernized the hell out of that part of Russia. Military

01:36commissariats and the security detail, all of the information needed for mass mobilization has been

01:43digitalized. The SIM cards of every male citizen in Russia has been tied to their passports and the

01:49SIM card providers, the service providers, are working very closely with the Ministry of Defense.

01:54So in this time, they are ready for the mobilization. I have to admit that, unfortunately. Russia has

02:00worked four years to be ready for this mobilization. But it would be very blind to say that they will

02:06declare mobilization and what have they done now? They already have a mobilization. Russian

02:12military commissariats are recruiting about 1,000 men per day all across Russia. 800, 900, 1,000,

02:20that's the medium number per day. Half of the months of 2026, they're losing more than 1,000 men per

02:26day.

02:26So what this mobilization will be, it will not be what 2022 was. They will not repeat these mistakes.

02:34It will be the very same mobilization, hidden mobilization, that has been going on for the last

02:39four years. Only instead of 1,000 men per day, that's pretty much the medium quota right now,

02:45the local authorities will be pressured to mobilize 1,200, 1,300, 1,500 men per day all across Russia.

02:55See, the mobilization quotas to be filled, that responsibility in Russia is handed over to the

03:01local authorities. It is right now. Every oblast authority chooses how they fill these quotas.

03:08With money, one-time payments, richer oblasts do that. Or with pressure, some oblasts do that.

03:16Even minor breakings of the law will get you to the front in some oblasts. While in others,

03:22if you sign up, you get an insane amount of money. They all have to choose their own methods.

03:26Now, the pressure from the central government will increase, so these oblasts will increase their

03:32pressure on the men. What I'm quite sure of is that this will be done as quietly and as smoothly

03:38as possible, and it will be the current mobilization just stepped up. It will be not some drastic new

03:45thousand men shoved into a bus thing. No. It will be what we have seen, or more like what we

03:51don't much

03:52see, because it's quite invisible. It will be just stepped up a little bit. The security detail for

03:58it has already been recruited. We saw recruitment ads at the beginning of summer for it, so Russians

04:02have been getting ready for this mobilization well over half a year. I am guessing the borders will be

04:07closed, Georgia and Belarus in particular, because men are leaving through these borders to Belarus and

04:13Georgia. But both countries this time are working very closely with Russian authorities. I am guessing

04:20they will send back the men who have fled Russia to those countries. All right, now you have the

04:25context. Let's begin with the actual footage and sources and information. Let's begin with the

04:30official Kremlin denial of mobilization, because this is how you know the Russians are about to do

04:35something. We begin with the Kremlin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov. There will be no new mobilization in

04:41Russia, Peskov says. Putin's press secretary dismissed reports about preparation for a new wave of

04:47mobilization as yet another piece of Ukraine and disinformation. Exactly the same, almost with the

04:53exact same wording was said before September 20th in 2022. So this is just a pattern repeating itself

05:01quite fast. The problem is that Moscow says things like this all the time. Just a few days ago,

05:07Nebenzha insisted that mass mobilization was neither necessary nor planned. Why are we talking about

05:13these spokespersons? Let's get it from the man himself. This is Vladimir Putin saying that there

05:18will not be a mobilization after a question from a journalist. Recently, there has been increasing

05:25speculation that a new wave of mobilization will take place in Russia after the state deuma elections.

05:34And Putin says, this is complete nonsense. It's an information attack against Russia.

05:41So the man himself denies it, meaning it will happen. See, to understand Russian, you don't need to speak

05:47Russian. You need to know how they will give you information and what they mean by it. Usually,

05:54when Kremlin spokespersons or officials open their mouth, read it 180 degrees. They say they won't do

06:00something, they'll do it. They say they do something, they won't do it. And a final symptom, I know there

06:06will be a mobilization because there has been an insane increase in online comments from Kremlin bots.

06:14Thousands, tens of thousands of comments explaining in detail how Russia doesn't need a mobilization,

06:20how they're the most powerful army and they wouldn't need it because they're winning in Ukraine.

06:24Well, this is how you know, the quite opposite is true. Otherwise, you wouldn't get these extra comments.

06:30You always see a wave of Russian bots doing something before Russia does something big. They

06:35start with a counter-information operation always. That's just how they work. So let's now get into

06:42how the mobilization is going on right now, how it has been going on for a few years right now.

06:48Let's

06:48watch some videos. As I mentioned, every local authority is pressured by the central government to

06:53fill their quotas however they want to do it. And in this specific video, this local government,

06:58their police force is going on in shopping malls and just saying to men they see their military age

07:04that you fit the description, you have to come to the military commissariat, follow me. They don't

07:09use violence, they're not aggressive, they just say that. And most men run away or fight for their

07:15rights. They don't have any rights, but they think they do, so they get aggressive, they defend and

07:19that's that. But some do cave in always and that's how they get their quota. If you use it enough,

07:25one out of ten men will actually follow them, give the signature, maybe get a one-time payment,

07:31and that's how they fill their quota right now. It is semi-aggressive, but it's not shoving

07:36thousands of men into buses. This is how it has been happening for years now. This specific man pushes

07:43it back and walks away. Next video, we have a man who is not so lucky because this specific local

07:49authority has given the police force more power and more incentives to be aggressive. You know why?

07:55Because in some oblasts in Russia, each police officer or security detail who actually brings in

08:00a new recruit to the army will get money benefits, money bonuses per recruit. So the men bringing in

08:08the recruits are actually very much inclined to do that. Even homeless people, just get them to the army

08:13because you will get hundreds of thousands of rubles for it. That's thousands of dollars, which is big

08:19money in Russia. So they will try to get anybody and anyone they can find. Homeless, the crippled, the sick,

08:26the ill, the old, the young, because it's money for them. In this case, let's watch it right on the

08:32street.

08:33I refuse. Physical force will be used against you. I refuse. Now what? And why should I go with you?

08:41Explain. And they're just taking it. That would be an abuse of power. Well, he is in Russia, so there's

08:46no such thing as an abuse of power because they have actually elected that government with that

08:52powers to do what they please with the people. That's their apolitical stance, which has enabled

08:57this to happen. So this man here is responsible for what is happening to him. Look here, chats. Look,

09:03guys, they're forcibly, they're forcing me to get into the car here. No need to touch my phone.

09:09So what is happening? They're bringing the guy into the commissariat. They lock him up for one,

09:13two, three days. They don't beat him. Usually how this happens is they pressure him, threatening to

09:19take away the passport, to take away the bank account, and they can do those things. And a lot

09:25of the men cave in on those terms. Some don't and they will be let free and their passports and

09:29bank

09:30accounts will be taken away, but they're free for now. Who knows if this man was mobilized or not?

09:35It's not mobilized. They give the signatures. You know, it's pressure. The pressure will just slowly

09:40increase. And the more it increases, more men will sign. And we're talking about hundreds of thousands.

09:47You know how the statistics works. You increase the pressure a little bit, you get 10,000 extra

09:51per Russia. These are big numbers for such a big country. You don't need to make big changes to make

09:56big numbers of men keep their signature. Let's take another video. This is the most aggressive.

10:03This is a father and the mother is filming it. The kid is right in the back and it's a

10:07car they're in.

10:08And let's see. What are you doing? Oh yeah, I don't know. I've got a little kid. Now they're scaring

10:14him.

10:15Look, they're dragging the father out of the car. Plain and simple. What are you doing? What's going on?

10:19We're taking you to the commandant's office. That's it. Then you leave the same way. Why leave?

10:25You'll just take me again and that's it. Are you mental of something? Get out of here. Military

10:30commandant's office. What commandant's office? You already came here and did whatever you pleased.

10:36So they're taking him. Not going to beat him. Just pressure him with the same things. You know,

10:41SIM card is already connected to the Ministry of Defense anyway. Passport is connected. Everything

10:46is digitalized. You cannot leave the country. If you do, you take your phone. They know where you are

10:51all the time. So it's not like 2022 when you can hide in a forest and you will not be

10:55mobilized.

10:56They will find you, follow you. They will cancel your SIM card. They will block your bank accounts.

11:01They will take your passport. They own you. So they don't really need to do much. Just tell these things

11:08to a man for him to understand that I don't really have much of a choice. And if they do

11:13that on a scale

11:13of hundreds of thousands of men, you can see where I'm going with this. Not much is needed. Not even

11:18much violence is needed for men to cave. They have kids. They have families. Another masterful tactic

11:24that they use actually right now is use their public mood and the fear of mobilization. The

11:31commandant says there will be a mobilization. So if you sign up now, you will get a cash benefit. But

11:37if you will be mobilized after September 20th, you will get nothing because then you will be

11:41forcefully mobilized. So sign up now. You will get free cash for it. Painting this as a better option.

11:47Although he doesn't know if there actually will or will not be a mobilization. There's no

11:50official information like that. Officially they deny it. But they use that. They use every

11:56psychological tool to get them in. They don't have to use physical violence. Mental violence is enough.

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13:37slash promo official rules for details. To brighten the mood, I joke for you that is too real,

13:44actually. What am I supposed to do with this? And they sent a message to him. You have been sent

13:49a

13:49summons to the military enlistment office. Please review the summons right now. A summons address

13:55to you has been entered to the summons register. And the comment is, write to them that you're not

14:01interested in politics. Why is this so funny and so true is because a whole generation of Russians

14:07who were born 1995, 2000, 2005, they're all like 15 to 25 years old now. They all have always said,

14:15I am not political. I am not interested in politics. Ever since countless of elections

14:20have gone and went in Russia, they didn't go to vote. They were not political because they were okay

14:25with that government. They enabled it to happen because they didn't go vote against it. I'm not

14:31even saying go to the street and die for your beliefs. No, I'm saying in 2005, 2007, 2002,

14:38when there were different elections, local government elections or presidential elections,

14:43people were apolitical or they actually really liked Putin. Putin has always been quite popular

14:50in Russia, very popular actually. But yeah, this is a very, very common sentence you will hear the

14:56Russians say all the time when their country and government has been committing genocide abroad,

15:00that they are apolitical. If you don't want to, you don't have to remain apolitical, but you will be

15:06immobilized. The time for action now has tripled the cost. Now you will be put into chains or jail

15:13and sent to the front. Time for action was when the democracy was still working in Russia and it was

15:19for well over 10 years. Let's take this next instance, this Russian mother of six. Yes, four boys and two

15:29daughters. I have one daughter and I don't understand this. I would do everything to

15:35protect her and watching this mother, I got a feeling I understand the Russian mindset quite

15:40well. But honestly, I feel like I would have to be very drunk to understand it perfectly. Then I would,

15:45because she is drunk. I think all the time. Let's see how she feels about her kids. I'm telling you,

15:50I'm a mom to four sons. She has a class or something of course here. She's live streaming. I also

15:56have two

15:57daughters. I can give all of my sons, four sons, the F you're going to break Russia. I'll just give

16:04birth to more. This is how us Russian mothers are. She's proud about that. How about you? I think a

16:11country and its values and the value of a country and the value to its people is how it behaves

16:17towards

16:17its people to make their lives better or not. And the culture it has and the culture its people uphold.

16:23Ukrainians have a very old and deep rooted culture, their own language. Looking at this,

16:29as much as I've known Russians for 30 years living in Estonia, seeing them, not all of them are like

16:35that, but the Putin's Russians living in Russia or Estonia who support Putin, who have this imperialistic

16:41mindset, or this means they rather don't have a sense of self much because all they feel connected

16:47to is this imperialistic idea. They don't care about themselves or the children. This is it.

16:52I've seen this in Estonia. I've seen it in ex-Soviet countries. What we call is

16:56Gibil. Gibil is an Estonian derogatory term, maybe all across Russian-speaking world perhaps.

17:03Gibil is like a stupid Soviet person or a man or a woman without roots. The one who trashes around

17:10all the time is in drinks and fights. No culture, no manners, no roots, no connection to the land he

17:19or

17:19she lives in. And also now I find out no connection or value of the family. So no values. It's

17:24a monkey.

17:26No values at all. It's just an instinct to have sex and make more babies, which is this woman. So

17:30yeah,

17:31I don't value such people. They don't make up a good country. Quite the opposite. And they're

17:35danger to themselves, to their children and to everybody else in the world. That's Russians.

17:41Now let's take another Russian woman, a young woman who is part of the group I mentioned,

17:4615 to 25, 30-year-olds who have lived most of their lives or all of their lives under Putin,

17:52being heard saying all the time, I am apolitical or I'm not interested in politics. Now, let's see

17:58how this works out for her. Are we going somehow to comment the fact that they're giving this out

18:04to young 20-year-old girls? Here I'm reading. Application to the head of the military recruitment

18:10center. I was at spare bank today, just exchanging some small change. I wanted to put it on my card

18:16and change it for my purse, the currency or rather the denomination. And when I handed the

18:22money over, they gave me this form. I haven't signed anything anywhere. I just read it later

18:28and it needs to be sent to the Russian minister of defense to be entered into the unified bank

18:33details database and passed on to the head of the military recruitment center. Excuse me,

18:39what is this? What is this for? Has anyone else been given this apart from me? Tell me what this

18:44means.

18:44Well, now she has a lot of questions, but she didn't when she didn't go to vote,

18:48which is the duty and responsibility of every citizen in a democratic country, which Russia was

18:5520 years ago, 25 years ago. She has not fulfilled her duty to the democratic society expecting that

19:03society and country to now protect her while she didn't protect the democracy. It doesn't work like

19:10that. You have to fight for the democracy and your rights all the time, which is not taken for

19:15granted. And I don't mean go out on the street and bash the policemen, which is so popular nowadays.

19:21No, I mean think about what are your values and try to uphold them in your country as peacefully as

19:28possible. Russians have not done that. So next chapter of the video could be called leaving the country.

19:34Let's see how many men are leaving the country right now. In August, the last week of August,

19:40about 113,000 men left to Georgia. That's only to Georgia last week of August. Borders are still open

19:50because if they would close it, they would confirm the mobilization and therefore there would be mass

19:55panic. I'm guessing they will close the borders at some point, but right now they're open and men

19:59are leaving massively. And how painful this will be for Russians. This is the bleeding of a country.

20:05Almost a million men left in the fall of 2022. Russia losses are exceeding one and a half million

20:11right now. That's wounded plus KIAs. We see so many men taken out of the workforce in the last five

20:17years. I mean, the country is bleeding to death. This mobilization will just be a catalyst for that.

20:23Let's see. This video comes to us on August the 30th. This is the Russo-Georgian checkpoint. It is

20:28absolutely clogged. There are massive lines of tens of thousands of Russians on this checkpoint. Actually,

20:34there is only one checkpoint on Russia and Georgian border. They're all getting through it. It's a bottleneck

20:40while they can. It's a mass exodus until it's still possible. 24th of August. This is the Russia-Belorussian

20:47checkpoint. One of them at least. Belarus is a recently very popular destination for Russians

20:53anyway because it's weird to say, but I mean, it's a dictatorship, but it's freer than Russia. You get the

21:01Western brands. It's not sanctioned like Russia. So the Russians go there to shop and have a good

21:06time. Well, now even more so because they think the Russian men think that if they go to Belarus,

21:11they will not be mobilized. Well, newsflash, they will be sent back because their phone

21:16lets the Russian minister defense know immediately where the man is and Belarus is a Russian puppet

21:21state. So in Georgia also, Georgian dream controls the country. That's the party. So both of these

21:27countries, I'm guessing the men will be sent back as soon as they are needed for the Tsar. This video

21:33was also made about some men being turned back from Moscow airports with no reason, just not allowed

21:41to leave the country. Again, these are single videos. I cannot say that this is done always. I'm sure

21:45thousands of men are flying out of in and out of Moscow right now, but instances like this have started

21:52to come up online. And now to sum up this video, I will read you an analysis. So we're all

21:57on the

21:57same page with this, how and why the mobilization is coming. It's not what you think it will not be.

22:04I'll say that again, not be rounding up thousands of thousands of men. It will not be what we saw

22:08in

22:092022. I hate to say this, but everything shows that Russians, Russian authorities and military

22:14commissariat, they are ready for mobilization this time, but it will not be a public mobilization. It will be

22:19the hidden mobilization geared up. Russia will launch a new wave of mobilization this fall

22:25without calling it mobilization. Sources are already reporting that there are orders for the

22:30regions to recruit up to 800,000 people. Men will be detained under any pretext on the street,

22:36at work and in educational institutions, and then forced to sign a contract. As I said,

22:41forced to sign a contract. In the end, those who don't sign, they don't sign, but they don't have a

22:46phone.

22:47I mean, they do. The phone will pretty much follow them everywhere they go. They don't have a passport.

22:52Perhaps their bank accounts will be closed. So a lot of the men cave in and, you know, voluntarily

22:57give the signature. So it will be not forcefully mobilization because on paper, everybody is a

23:02volunteer. There will be no medical examination. There is already a law allowing this. There will be

23:08no training either. Essentially, they will be cannon fodder. This is what we saw in 2022. Again,

23:13I think Russians have really improved on that also with their army. They have started to train their

23:18men better. Not that it has really translated into fewer losses because against the drone,

23:25a man, an infantryman, is still cannon fodder if not used correctly, combined with the jammers,

23:34with the armor, with the air force, and they will not be used like that. Old military districts may also

23:40be reinforced and new ones created, which could pose a threat to the Baltic countries,

23:45which Estonia, you know, my country. Let's look at the current state of affairs.

23:50Russia is becoming increasingly less successful at recruiting people under contract.

23:54In the fourth quarter of 2025, recruitment fell by approximately one and a half times compared

24:00with the previous year. In the first quarter of 2026, around 800 to 1000 people per day were signing

24:07contracts. 20% fewer than a year earlier. And as I mentioned, the losses are constantly above a

24:14thousand. This is, of course, wounded plus KIAs. The Russian authorities are responding with

24:19increasingly aggressive recruitment. By August, 56 Russian regions were already paying rewards to people

24:26who bring in new contract soldiers. A year earlier, there were only 31 such regions. In some places,

24:33hundreds of thousands of rubles were paid for each recruited candidate. While in Smolensk region,

24:39the reward has increased to 1 million rubles. So you bring in a homeless man who gives a signature,

24:43you get 1 million rubles. Everybody wants to bring in a friend. At the same time, administrative pressure

24:49on businesses and educational institution is growing. In the Riazan region, employers were required to

24:56look for candidates for military contracts. And here's when we get to the point. Many people assume

25:02that Russians are the same Russians in 2022. They're not. Unfortunately, they do learn quite slowly,

25:08but they do learn from their mistakes and this mobilization will be different. At the same time,

25:13over the past few years, Russia has built a much more effective administrative conscription system,

25:20an electronic military registration database, electronic summonses, the ability to automatically

25:26impose restrictions after a person is entered into the database, and a year-round conscription procedure.

25:33Thanks to this system, a future wave of mobilization in Russia may look, may look, will look

25:39different from the outside than 2022 mobilization. It may not be announced in one major decree

25:46accompanied by a televised address. I don't think it will, I think it will be denied, but you will see

25:53it geared up. It may consist of several parallel mechanisms, coercive contract recruitment,

25:59summonses to the military enlistment offices, the use of reservists, electronic summonses,

26:04work through employers, the police, the federal penitentiary service, and local administrations.

26:10So every company, every bank, police, employers, all of them have to or voluntarily work with the

26:17Ministry of Defense. It's the system is changed. Every Russian organization now has massive incentives

26:23to send in their men, or out of fear, they do that. So this mobilization, unfortunately, will be

26:29effective. It will be more invisible than in 2022, and it will take more time. I'm guessing they just

26:35gear it up 20-30%. So it will just happen over 12 months, perhaps. But 20% more in 12

26:43months,

26:43you can do the math. It's tens of thousands of new recruits. And we will not see these videos like

26:48we

26:49saw in 2022, buses full of drunken mobilized. We will not see that. But we will see an increased

26:54Russian army. This is it, my friends. I'll be back for you every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. So

26:59until my next video, be sure to subscribe to the channel. Be sure to be back, and bye-bye.

“THERE WON’T BE ANY MOBILISATION” says Putin - but he has already Ordered it.

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