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00:00With us now here at the Plaza is Ben Sills, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for European Economy and Government,
00:04and Jennifer Hansler, Senior National Security Reporter for CNN.
00:07Ben, let me start with you. Have you set the table for us here?
00:10This is a busy time in New York. Traffic is onerous.
00:13It's hard to get around all of these world leaders descending on the city.
00:16What are you looking forward to when it comes to the conversation that's going to take place here?
00:19We know that the President of the United States is coming up here in the days ahead to meet with
00:23Middle Eastern leaders,
00:24to talk about the conflict in the Middle East.
00:26How much tangible results do you expect these two weeks here in New York?
00:30Well, I think on the Middle East question, we've been going round and round this kind of merry-go-round
00:36with talks on, talks off for a while now.
00:39And it does seem as if the President is keen to reach some kind of resolution.
00:45We had those comments earlier last week about a big decision coming up.
00:50So I think the big issue that a lot of the European leaders that I follow particularly are going to
00:55be looking for
00:56is whether there's any prospect of actually a resolution there to get the oil and the gas flowing.
01:02And Jen, you heard in Lisa's news update that report that the Saudis alleged the Houthis have tried to attack
01:07the capital there.
01:07And I know you've been speaking to some sources around the world, but especially in the Gulf,
01:11about frustration about the lack of movement on the war in general, but about the Houthi issue in particular.
01:16What are you hearing?
01:17That's right, Rafini, because there's a growing sense that one issue cannot be resolved without the other, right?
01:21Even though the Houthis are claiming that their only quarrel is with Saudi Arabia,
01:25which we have also notably heard the U.S. president echoing that message saying,
01:29oh, they only have an issue with one country, so we're not going to get kinetically involved at this moment.
01:33But there is a frustration that these gains being made by the Houthis,
01:37which sources told me should not have come as a surprise given their backing by Iran,
01:41that this is going to complicate any sort of efforts to get any sort of deal on the Strait of
01:47Hormuz,
01:47for example, any sort of peace settlement there.
01:50You mentioned, Jennifer, that this was not unexpected.
01:52We're kind of waiting after the beginning of this conflict to see if the Houthis wouldn't get involved here.
01:57What is front of mind for American policymakers, military policymakers,
02:01as they think about the engagements they've had in the past with the Houthis,
02:03which in recent years have not been largely successful?
02:06Well, David, the clear public red line we've heard from the president, at least,
02:10is that we are not going to take military action.
02:12We have reporting that Saudi Crown Prince MBS had spoken twice with Trump in recent weeks,
02:17urging him to take that kinetic action.
02:19And the president so far has rebuffed that.
02:21They have been offering intelligence, targeting support, that sort of support,
02:25but they have not crossed that red line into actually militarily striking the Houthis.
02:30They still, according to our sources, have affirmed that they believe that that bilateral ceasefire
02:36that they reached with the Houthis is still in place today.
02:38But I want to ask you, we are here for ANGA, obviously.
02:42It's an interesting time for multilateralism.
02:44And we've been focusing a lot on the UN, on these big organizations.
02:48And you wrote recently about the EU and some of the struggles that are tearing apart that alliance.
02:54Is it a warning for some of these other alliances around the world?
02:57And what are the factors kind of driving what could be complicating the long-term durability
03:01and effectiveness of the EU?
03:04Well, I think the fundamental problem that the EU has is that, on the one hand,
03:10the establishment parties have failed to come up with a policy proposal
03:15which can both revive economic growth and win the backing of voters.
03:21So you look at France, you look at Germany, you look at Italy.
03:24In all of the big countries, you have this problem of governments failing to come up with a recipe for
03:30growth.
03:30At the same time, the longer that goes on, you get more extremist parties like the AfD in Germany
03:37or Marine Le Pen in France who are gaining support from voters who feel like the centre
03:42does not have an answer for them anymore.
03:44And the longer that goes on, it hollows out the support for the central European project.
03:52And without that, the EU looks increasingly like a kind of an empty shell
03:57that doesn't have any real intangible political power behind it.
04:03Apologies to our viewers.
04:04This is a live event here, so you're hearing a lot of setting up behind us.
04:09You mentioned that European project, and I wanted to ask you about the speech
04:12that the Prime Minister of Canada delivered to European Parliament this week.
04:15Highly anticipated.
04:17Yes, there was a swirl of speculation about what associate membership in that body might mean.
04:21But as you talk about the EU perhaps being on the ropes
04:24or having this existential crisis of its own making,
04:27how much of a shot in the arm was that, to have Mark Carney travel to Strasbourg
04:30and talk about just the importance of that alliance as he sees it with Canada going forward?
04:34No, I thought it was kind of bittersweet, because Mark Carney would be the perfect European.
04:38He's the leader that Europeans need.
04:39A polyglot.
04:40Not actually European.
04:43It was a great speech.
04:45It kind of articulated the vision that I think the broader European world,
04:51which Canada now is joining, wants to kind of rally behind.
04:56But at the same time, Canada is a relatively small economy.
05:00It's the site, you know, between Italy and Spain.
05:02It would be a meaningful addition to the EU, but it's not a game-changer, that's it.
05:07Jenny, when you cover Rubio, which you have for quite some time now,
05:10you know, we were just talking and you are kind of assigned to him for the duration of this UNGA.
05:15How does he navigate something like this?
05:17Because generally, before he got this role in this administration,
05:19he was much more in favour of these multilateral organisations.
05:23He was more traditionally Republican when it came to foreign policy.
05:27That's not necessarily the White House,
05:28and obviously he's trying to fall in step with the President of the United States.
05:31What are you expecting from Marco Rubio,
05:33and how does he approach these kind of bilaterals as he goes into them with world leaders here in New
05:37York?
05:38Well, I've heard from sources that behind the scenes, you know, he's a very reasonable person.
05:41He's speaking to them in a language that they recognise from when he was a lawmaker.
05:45But of course, when it comes to the President's agenda,
05:47his role is to implement that,
05:50and that is something he has said publicly over and over.
05:52And while I'm just doing, you know, this is the administration's agenda.
05:54When it comes to these multilateral issues, particularly when it comes to the UN,
05:58we heard from a State Department official saying that they want massive reforms from the next UN Secretary General,
06:03for example, that they haven't publicly backed any of the candidates,
06:06but they have laid out kind of a list of what they are looking for in that next leader of
06:10this body.
06:11And they've made no secret of their attacks, not only on the UN,
06:14the International Criminal Court, which they are calling for its dismantlement.
06:17So it will be interesting to see how Rubio sort of toes that line
06:20between what he is privately telling allies,
06:23how he's trying to walk that line in sort of a pragmatic way,
06:26versus the public messaging we're hearing from.
06:28He also has, oh, sorry, go ahead.
06:29No, I was going to say this thing, too, just to see the dynamic with him and Mike Waltz, the
06:32ambassador here.
06:32That's the thing, he also has multiple jobs, too.
06:34Yeah, go ahead.
06:35You know, I asked Ben just about kind of what he's looking forward to in terms of the next couple
06:38of weeks.
06:39When you look at Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State's schedule here,
06:42who are the contemporaries that he's most eager to meet with?
06:45What is he prioritizing here as he comes to be here?
06:47Well, the State Department has unfortunately been quite tight-lipped about who he's actually meeting with here.
06:51No, never.
06:53No.
06:54Sorry, we cover the State Department a lot together.
06:56We have heard, for example, from the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov,
06:59that he intends to meet with the Secretary of State.
07:02And that is, of course, going to be a huge meeting,
07:04particularly if there's not an equivalent or even higher-level meeting with the Ukrainians.
07:08Of course, Zelensky is seeking another one-on-one with President Trump, as he did last year.
07:13And we sort of saw the messaging at least immediately after that meeting shift towards,
07:17I think the Ukrainians can do it.
07:18Of course, that messaging has shifted back and forth from the U.S. president,
07:22but they are hoping to have that opportunity to, again, present their case to the U.S. president.
07:27So if that doesn't happen and there's only this Lavrov meeting,
07:30that will send a lot of signals to the region.
07:33Ben, when it comes to Ukraine and European security,
07:36what has been going on with these ovations?
07:38You're seeing all of a sudden kind of unanimity around we have to take our security much more seriously,
07:44starting, you know, on the eastern part of Europe.
07:47But now you're seeing it from Macron.
07:49You're seeing it from more central European governments.
07:51It seems the messaging all of a sudden,
07:53has something shifted in the threat from Russia that is tangible,
07:56or is this just trying to foresee where this conflict is going?
08:00I think there are two things.
08:01There's definitely a much more tangible threat from Russia.
08:04Over the last two months, we've seen maybe half a dozen incidents
08:10from drones being shot down over Lithuania, Russian drones found in the sea off Romania.
08:18I think of the airport in Germany.
08:20The airport in Leipzig, yeah.
08:21So we speak to security officials who say there's been a...
08:25in what we used to call hybrid attacks,
08:28but when you're putting bombs in an airport, it's not really hybrid anymore.
08:31It's just an attack.
08:32And then on the other hand, you can see, you know, as Jennifer was saying,
08:36that the U.S. is clearly retreating from its security commitments to Europe.
08:41We're still waiting for this strategic review of the troop deployments in Europe.
08:47But Colby, for example, when he was in Brussels, I think last month,
08:52was very, you know, reiterated that message.
08:54Deputy Secretary of Defense.
08:54Exactly.
08:55And he said, you know, we're looking for the Europe to take responsibility for their own security now.
09:02And the Europeans know there's a bit of a gap at this point,
09:06and so they're racing to fill that.
09:08We dovetail these two regions.
09:10We've been talking about Europe and the Middle East,
09:11and there was this announcement a couple of days ago that,
09:14in part because of the attack on the east-west pipeline in Saudi Arabia,
09:17Europe's not going to get the amount of oil that they customarily get
09:20for refining here in the month ahead.
09:22How seismic is that news, and what does that mean for Europe
09:25as it looks at its energy consumption and faces this kind of global refining crisis?
09:30I think that for Europe that is more incrementally bad news,
09:35but it's not a disaster.
09:38Europe's dependency on the Middle East and the global markets for its energy
09:42is one of its major strategic weaknesses,
09:48and it's not just oil.
09:50It's the gas supplies for the winter heating season as well,
09:53which are running short because of the war.
09:55So the Europeans are kind of there.
09:59I'd say European officials are on yellow alert
10:00for their energy supplies going into the winter,
10:03but we've not quite hit full-blown prices yet.
10:06Before I let you go,
10:08you've talked about people who are likely to meet with the president.
10:10Do we think the Canadians and the Americans are going to meet while they're here?
10:14How is that going?
10:15That's a great question.
10:17We have not heard necessarily that there's going to be a bilateral
10:20between Trump and Carney.
10:22There's only been a few that the White House has explicitly previewed,
10:26for example, to pull aside with Delcey Rodriguez,
10:28the de facto leader of Venezuela.
10:31So I think when it comes to Canada,
10:33it may be sort of a spur-of-the-moment thing if it happens,
10:35but, of course, that is a very, very tense relationship
10:40between the two neighbors right now.
10:41And it's really interesting because normally an omission
10:43with a Canada-U.S. leader meeting,
10:45you'd be like, ah, they're fine.
10:46They talk on the phone.
10:47It's okay.
10:48This is maybe the one UNGA where those two leaders' meetings
10:50seem significant, right?
10:51No, I think very fascinating because we're in this moment
10:53where there's a threat of these further import tariffs
10:55going into effect in just a couple of days now,
10:57and I think the messaging from the administration is very much,
11:00look, there is this opening for talks to come back together,
11:03I guess, not to continue, but for these two sides to talk once again.
11:06We'll see if that does happen or it has been happening,
11:08and Mark Carney has been in Europe over these last few days
11:11and I think remains in France today.
11:13Ben, let me ask you last thing as we've kind of come full circle here.
11:17What are Europe's objectives here in New York this week?
11:20What are they looking to have happen as they meet
11:22with their counterparts from around the world?
11:23I actually think they've got a very specific goal,
11:26which is to secure air defenses for Ukraine.
11:29The Ukraine war is the existential question for Europe,
11:32for European security going into the winter,
11:36and the Ukrainians are in a desperate situation
11:40with the Russian air attacks.
11:41So if they can get supplies quickly, that will be a big win.
11:46I'm assuming they're looking for that from the U.S.?
11:48From the U.S. and anyone.
11:51Are they going to get it?
11:55For our radio listeners.
11:57That was an exasperated shrug from our colleague, Ben Sills.
12:02Ben, thank you so much.
12:04Jennifer Hansler joining us from CNN.
12:05We appreciate the loan.
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