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Does Will see a path to victory for the Lions over the Bills?
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00:00Doug Karsh, Scott Anderson, and a cast of thousands,
00:04including the Birchie kid who's on his way right now to Buffalo.
00:07What's up, my man? How are you?
00:10How are we doing, fellas? I'm approaching Toledo,
00:12so still got some miles to chew off here, but I'd like to get to Buffalo.
00:17You decided to go through Ohio instead of going through Canada. Interesting.
00:21Yeah, I didn't want to deal with the border, having to come and go,
00:25I guess, four times over the course of a trip.
00:27I just like getting in the car and driving straight.
00:30So we're going right along Lake Erie.
00:32Also, I don't know if my passport's up to date.
00:34And all the contraband you're probably bringing with you doesn't have.
00:38Yeah, exactly right. I can't go across international borders.
00:42You're right. That makes complete sense.
00:45Larry Borum and Ben Bartsch, come on down.
00:50You're the next contestants.
00:52And can they get the job done tonight against this Buffalo front?
00:56Hey, thank God Brad Holmes and the Lions fortified this offensive line depth in the offseason, huh?
01:01Like, all three guys they added as reserves are starting tonight.
01:04Drew Scruggs, obviously, at center for Cade Mays.
01:07Ben Bartsch at left guard for Christian Mahogany.
01:09And Larry Borum at right tackle for Blake Miller.
01:12So it does feel like they're better suited to withstand those kind of losses than they were a year ago.
01:17But, yeah, not great, Bob, to echo the old meme.
01:21I mean, this is not the kind of game or, honestly, the kind of defensive line where you want to
01:25be relying on three backups.
01:27The one that gives me the most pause, because I think actually Scruggs and Bartsch both handled themselves really well
01:32in week one,
01:32is Larry Borum.
01:33A, Blake Miller was awesome in week one.
01:36He played as well as any young tackle in the NFL.
01:38You didn't notice him in pass pro, which is a good thing, and you did notice him as a run
01:44blocker, which is a great thing.
01:46So they will miss his athleticism.
01:48Here's the one maybe silver lining for Larry Borum.
01:51I don't know if you guys have touched on this, but he played the Bills twice last year as a
01:55member of the Dolphins.
01:56And he saw a lot of Gregory Rousseau, who he will definitely see a lot of tonight.
02:00And he was teammates last year in Miami with Bradley Chubb, who he will also see a lot of tonight.
02:06Maybe that familiarity benefits him.
02:09Now, I will say, Larry Borum's performances last year against the Bills and Gregory Rousseau were nothing to write home
02:17about.
02:17And Gregory Rousseau, who had two strip sacks, by the way, in week one in that victory over the Texans
02:23for the Bills,
02:25lines up almost exclusively on the left edge of the defensive line, which means over the right tackle.
02:31So Larry Borum is going to have his hands full tonight with Gregory Rousseau.
02:35You've got to expect the Lions to send all kinds of help that way with chipping tight ends and even
02:41running backs in support.
02:42But I think maybe the most critical matchup in this game tonight is Larry Borum versus Gregory Rousseau.
02:48Is Miles Frazier possibly a factor if it's not going well for Borum?
02:53You know, I was just thinking to myself, if a tackle gets hurt tonight, God forbid, who's offensive tackle three
02:59now?
02:59And I would guess that it is Miles Frazier.
03:01So he would be next up there.
03:03But they're going to go with Borum's experience and hope that he can just sort of hold his own tonight.
03:08Was this kind of out of left field with Blake Miller that this situation got to where it is, where
03:13he's out?
03:15Yeah, you know, even talking to him on Monday evening, I got the sense he was going to play.
03:20He was talking like he expected to play.
03:22He thought he was, you know, getting ahead of the injury, having come in really early Monday morning.
03:26It's just brutal and a reminder of how ruthless the NFL is that this guy never missed a snap in
03:33four years in college.
03:34And he plays one game in the NFL and gets dinged up enough that he's going to miss one.
03:38And it's also the reality of playing off Thursday night after playing Sunday afternoon.
03:42You know, I got the sense from talking to Dan Campbell on Monday that there wouldn't really be much of
03:47a question about Miller's availability had this game been scheduled for Sunday.
03:51But it's not.
03:52And so here we are.
03:53But I do think Blake will be back in week three.
03:56Two things from the Lions throw game tonight I'm interested in.
04:00One is, does J-Mo hang on to everything thrown in his direction?
04:03Two is, does Tesla get anything thrown in his direction?
04:07What do you expect with both those two?
04:10Yeah, two great questions.
04:12The answer, the former, yeah, I expect J-Mo to bounce back in a big way.
04:16You know, all of the hype and reporting around his performance in training camp and in particular and his sure
04:22hands was real.
04:24That wasn't created out of thin air by those of us who were down there in Allen Park.
04:28He really did look like a more polished hand catcher.
04:31Obviously, it doesn't matter if it doesn't show up in big spots.
04:33But I expect J-Mo to bounce back under the bright lights tonight.
04:38Tesla is a much more loaded question.
04:40You know, I wrote about this this week.
04:42If anyone wants to go read it, it's on our website.
04:44It's on my Twitter.
04:46I just don't know how Isaac Tesla is going to garner more than two to three targets a game this
04:53season.
04:53And even that feels like it might be more than he can reasonably expect.
04:59I mean, Jared Goff dropped back and threw 39 times last week, which was five more than his average last
05:04year.
05:05And only one of those throws went to Tesla.
05:08And look, it's partly on the Lions to try and involve him more in the plan.
05:12It's also partly on Tesla.
05:14You know, he said he worked all offseason in training camp on two things, creating more separation at the top
05:20of his route and his short area of quickness.
05:21And to my eyes, anyways, those two things have yet to really show up.
05:25And Jared Goff is not a quarterback who is inclined to throw to cover the receivers.
05:29Even guys that can win contested catches like Tesla, especially when you've got St. Brown, Laporta, J-Mo, and Gibbs
05:36getting open pretty frequently.
05:38So, barring injury, I just don't know how Tesla is going to rise above option five in the passing game.
05:45And in most offenses, option five in the passing game is a blocker who might see two throws a game.
05:51And right now, I think that's just sort of Tesla's role.
05:54Jameer Gibbs had 34 touches in week one.
05:57I think everything is going to be circumstantial with him based on what's going on with each game.
06:02And each game plan for each game is going to be different.
06:04But against the Bills, are we going to be surprised if he touches the ball more than 30 times again?
06:11Yes. Yes. I want to reset this conversation briefly.
06:16First of all, those 34 touches came in a game where they went to overtime.
06:20If the game had ended after four quarters like most NFL games do, the touch count would have been at
06:2628.
06:27So, let's make the adjustment for overtime, first of all.
06:29And then take 28 touches. Is it a lot? Yes.
06:33Is it more than you should take over any given game for 17 games? Yes.
06:37It wasn't even the most in week one, though.
06:39You had a lot of guys around the league, a lot of bell cows like Jameer Gibbs,
06:42who took far more, far more guys than their average workload last season.
06:47B. John Robinson, Ashton Jinty, both had 29 touches in week one.
06:51That was about 10 more than their averages last year.
06:54Kenneth Walker had 26, about 11 more than his average last year.
06:58Brees Hall and Derrick Henry both had about 24, like 6 to 7 more than their averages last year.
07:05My point is, weird things happen in week one when coaches and coordinators are going out of their way
07:10to win games, to avoid the 0-1 start.
07:13They lean on the guys they know best.
07:14The Lions did that with Gibbs.
07:16And then the game went to OT and he took 6 more touches, and the number ends up being 34.
07:21I think when the dust settles on 2026, Gibbs is around 22 to 23 touches a game,
07:27and I think that is sustainable.
07:29Now, they better find an RB, too.
07:31They can trust to take the Pacheco workload, which would have been, you know,
07:357 to 8 carries per game, and maybe more importantly, 7 to 8 pass protections per game.
07:40If they can't find that guy, or if they don't have him on the roster, they've got to go bring
07:44him in.
07:45Interesting.
07:46And you don't think, did you think Vakie or Sailors could be that guy?
07:50Well, we saw what it looked like last week for Vakie.
07:53It was pretty ugly in pass pro.
07:54I mean, he was guilty of running into the back of Penesual Gator.
07:57You and I watched that play happen live side by side, and he almost got Jared Goff killed in the
08:02process.
08:02And if that play had stood as we all thought it would, it might have been the reason the Lions
08:06lost the game in week one.
08:07And that wasn't the only time that he looked confused and out of place in pass pro.
08:11So I think the Lions are going to give him a little bit of a leash here, or Jacob Sailors.
08:14So say maybe two to three more games.
08:16But if those guys don't earn the trust of the coaching staff to take that small handful of carries
08:21and that small handful of pass protections, then I do think Jameer Gibbs is looking at 55 to 60 snaps
08:28a game.
08:28And that's when it starts to become unsustainable.
08:32Interesting.
08:33All right, so a path to victory for the Lions tonight.
08:36Actually, before we get to that, this stadium, right?
08:39The opening of the stadium, it's going to be chaos.
08:41But I like pointing out that the opening of the new stadium is going to be chaos.
08:44And the fans are going to be into it and all that.
08:46But I like pointing out three years ago the Lions were there when Kansas City was unveiling their championship banner
08:52on a Thursday night to open the season.
08:54The Lions won that game.
08:55And some of the key components are still around here.
08:58I don't know that that impacts the Lions at all.
09:01The question is, how much does it impact the Bills?
09:03Are they going to be riding high, full of juice, or are they going to be kind of distractions or
09:07maybe riding too high and not focused on the game?
09:11Yeah, I think the way it's going to impact the Lions, this crowd is going to be bonkers.
09:15I mean, the place is going to be shaking.
09:17And they've got, like we said, three reserves on the offensive line.
09:20And they've got a center who's going to be charged with getting everyone aligned that is in probably as hostile
09:26an environment as you've ever seen in the NFL.
09:29So, you know, that gives me a little bit of concern.
09:32I do trust Goff to settle those guys down in the huddle.
09:34But they're also coming off a week of practice where they couldn't practice.
09:38And usually you would dedicate, you know, three days to practicing with intense noise and working on the silent count.
09:43They really didn't get any of those reps this week.
09:46They did work it in training camp.
09:48But, you know, they're stepping into, I was going to say Lion's Den, called a Snake's Den tonight.
09:53And the offensive line is going to have to respond and show some poise.
09:57But, you know, it's funny.
09:58I was talking with Jack Campbell about that this week.
10:00And the idea that they're going into this big stage where the Bills are unveiling their new stadium.
10:05And he was like, you know, my debut was against Kansas City.
10:09And, you know, they enjoyed crashing that party, he said, back in week one.
10:13And their intentions tonight are to do the same thing.
10:15So defensively, we spent a lot of time talking about the offensive line, rightfully so, because of the injuries.
10:20But defensively, you've got to stop Josh Allen or limit Josh Allen anyway.
10:24You're not going to stop him.
10:25But can you contain him?
10:26How are the Lions going to game plan against Josh Allen?
10:30It's a fascinating question.
10:32So, first of all, Josh Allen over the past two seasons leads the NFL in total QBR against zone coverage.
10:40And you might say, well, that doesn't matter.
10:42The Lions only play man.
10:44Are we sure about that?
10:45Are we sure about that?
10:46Because in week one, the Lions were in zone 70% of the time.
10:51And they got torched.
10:52Most of the Saints' big plays, those explosive plays downfield, came against zone coverage.
10:58And part of the reason that Josh Allen has been better against zone than man coverage in recent seasons is
11:05the Bills never really had a true man beater for a receiver.
11:08Well, they kind of do now in DJ Moore.
11:10They went out and got him for that very reason.
11:12And he had five catches for 100 yards and I think a touchdown in week one.
11:18So, how are they going to game plan?
11:20I don't know, fellas.
11:21I don't know.
11:23I mean, look, the key in game, I heard you talking about it maybe a half hour ago, is you
11:28got to keep Josh Allen in the pocket for two reasons.
11:31One, when they played in 2024, a number of his explosive plays that game came at the end of scrambles
11:38where he found space, receivers shook coverage downfield, and he unleashed like 60-yard bombs.
11:43And going back and looking at that week one game for the Lions, they allowed some explosives on similar plays.
11:50So, if it's DJ Reed out there and Rocky's seen, they better be sticky all the way until the end
11:55of plays.
11:56And that defensive line better try and keep Josh Allen bottled up.
11:59What's the path to victory for Detroit, or did you just lay it out right there?
12:04Yeah, I think the path to victory is running the ball as much as they can effectively, like they did
12:10in week one, and try and churn some clock and try and stay on the ball to limit Josh Allen's
12:16chances against this defense.
12:17I was just talking to a friend of mine who knows the Bills as well as any of us know
12:23the Lions, and he was like, dude, this is about as bad of a spot as you could imagine for
12:28Detroit.
12:29And he thought that this is a game where the Bills put up 40, and he said if the Lions
12:34can't match them every step of the way, it could quickly become a route.
12:38Now look, that's just one man's opinion. It's one man who happens to be partial to the Bills, but I
12:43was surprised to hear how little he thought of the Lions' chances tonight.
12:48So, you know, this is really incumbent to me on the offense. You've got to be able to respond, and
12:54you've got to be able to lean on the run game tonight.
12:57Are you on TV tonight?
12:59Yeah, you can catch us on the field for our pregame show from 7 to 8. I believe we'll be
13:05on field. If not, we'll be up in the concourse. I might be jumping through a table, boys. I mean,
13:10Bill's Mafia gets me fired up.
13:11Let's go. Look out. Let's go. Make sure you get that on social media, Birchie.
13:18You'll see it.
13:20If anybody in the Detroit media is going to jump through a table, it's going to be William Birchfield.
13:24Tuck your chin to your chest.
13:27Thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Have a fun trip.
13:30Thanks a lot, fellas. Talk to you soon.
13:32There he is, Birch kid, en route to Buffalo for tonight's Lions-Bills game.
13:39248-539-9797. It's Carson Anderson here on 97.1.
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