00:00And we think there are two things that we focus on.
00:02One is the direct impact of energy prices and obviously the impact of what we've seen in the Gulf.
00:07And that has obviously had a serious effect and it continues to do so.
00:12And then we have to look at how that is feeding through into general inflation in the economy.
00:17It's still early days, so I'm not going to give you any firm judgment as to what's going to happen.
00:22So far, that feed-through has been quite subdued, but it is early days.
00:29Now, unfortunately, the longer these high energy prices go on, the more difficult this becomes.
00:34And we've flagged this very clearly today.
00:36The final thing I'd say is that monetary conditions in this country have tightened quite a bit this year.
00:42Because we were expected to cut rates and we haven't.
00:45And that's, I think, obviously necessary.
00:48And I'll give you the best example of this, which I think many viewers will probably associate with.
00:54Mortgage rates in this country since the end of February, when this conflict begun, have gone up by nearly 1%.
01:00So that's a substantial tightening of monetary conditions.
01:05And we take that into account.
01:07But it's going to get more difficult with these decisions the longer this problem and this conflict goes on.
01:13And I'll give you the best example.
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