- 2 hours ago
A panel of strategic experts debates the state of bilateral relations between India and China following recent high-level engagements. Brahma Chellaney questions the excessive focus on diplomatic handshakes and argues that New Delhi has steadily lost ground, stating, 'India is moving to normalize relations with Beijing largely on China\'s terms.' He highlights the ballooning trade deficit, ongoing Chinese export controls on critical technologies, and the shift from demanding status quo ante to mere peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control. Zorawar Daulet Singh contends that sustained contact and detente remain essential for India to safeguard strategic autonomy, manage border friction, and leverage Asia\'s dominant manufacturing powerhouse amidst global fragmentation. Ross Feingold provides perspective from Taiwan on the regional security implications of a potential Sino-Indian rapprochement. The discussion examines whether structural economic asymmetries and unresolved frontier disputes outweigh high-level bilateral summits.
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00:00Let's raise some of the big questions. Are India-China ties back on track?
00:04Is there no trust between the two countries because of the flashpoints that remain?
00:08Is a Trump factor important behind this India-China thaw that we are seeing?
00:14Both countries see Trump as the problem.
00:16How does Trump view the BRICS summit?
00:19Just some of the questions I want to raise.
00:20Joining me now, Zorawar Dawlat Singh.
00:23He's an author and strategic affairs expert.
00:25I'm also joined by Ross Feingold, head experts group and professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan.
00:33Professor Brahma Chalani, someone who's been a former advisor to India's National Security Council,
00:39has really done a lot of work on China.
00:42And I want to come to you, Brahma, first because, Professor Chalani, over the years you've been a skeptic.
00:48You seem to believe that the Chinese can't be trusted.
00:52And I had a guest from Beijing yesterday who said that's the old way of looking at China.
00:59China wants a sustained engagement with India.
01:02How do you see it in the light of the meeting between the two principals today?
01:07Rasteep, I have a more fundamental question.
01:10Why is it that after every handshake between Modi and Xi Jinping,
01:17Indian TV channels debate the same questions?
01:22Why?
01:23Why is it, why is every handshake so important?
01:26Why don't we look at the more fundamental issues?
01:30Because, no, no, because, no, no, hold on.
01:33No, no, no, no, no, let me, sorry to interrupt.
01:37The reason we do it is because there are so few, there are fleeting moments when this happens.
01:42This is President Xi's first visit to India in seven years.
01:47And we've seen all that's happened in the last six years post-Galwan.
01:50So we are raising the question, is this a thaw in relations between the two countries?
01:54And therefore, the handshake becomes important.
01:57Well, why not put it in a slightly broader context?
02:00For example, the Modi government has been expressing the same concern year after year
02:07about the trade imbalance with China.
02:10But the trade imbalance has become worse and worse and worse every year, right?
02:15In the last five years, India's trade with China has nearly doubled.
02:19Yes.
02:19And it has become even more lopsided.
02:23If you look at Modi's China policy, it has taken India on a roller coaster ride.
02:31Modi has made three separate attempted China resets in just one decade, between 2014, when
02:40he took office, and 2024, when the Kazan summit happened, you know, the BRICS Kazan summit in
02:46Russia, there were three separate attempted resets.
02:50And one key lesson from the three attempted resets has been that personal rapport, amplified
02:57by Bonhomie at bilateral meetings, is not sufficient for genuine rapprochement.
03:03Both with Trump and with Xi Jinping, Modi's investment in building personal rapport has not only little
03:12to show, but recoiled on India's strategic and economic interests.
03:17Today, why is India moving to normalize relations with Beijing largely on China's terms?
03:26One reason is the economic leverage that China now has over India.
03:31That leverage has grown every year, yearly increase in China's leverage over India, even as New
03:40Delhi talks about its concern about the trade imbalance, worse, worse.
03:46And this is the worst part, that in recent months, China has imposed export controls and
03:55tech transfer curves on India.
03:58This is impacting several key industrial sectors in India.
04:04Let me just explain what has happened.
04:07The specific curves on lithium, iron, and battery technologies to India, critical minerals and
04:15rare earths, also restriction on electronics, manufacturing, equipment sales to India, restrictions
04:22even on technical expertise to India.
04:25Now, all this, all these restrictions are going to hamper India's plans to become a global
04:38manufacturing hub because the Indian industries rely heavily on imported Chinese tooling and
04:43specialized machinery.
04:45So, and yet, and yet, you know, we are, we're talking again about whether the latest handshake
04:52fundamentally changes the situation.
04:55Let's look at the frontier also, you know, Raz, if I could just make one point, last point,
05:01which is that one, the line of actual control with China since 2020, since those Chinese stealth
05:10encroachments has transformed from a lightly patrol zone into a high altitude front line due to heavy
05:19militarization, including permanent barracks, airfields, and missile sites.
05:25And this is the reason why India has quietly shifted its stance on what happened in Ladakh.
05:34India is no longer demanding status quo ante.
05:38The MEA, the army chief, all said publicly, repeatedly, that status quo ante is a prerequisite
05:44to normalization of ties with India.
05:47Yet today, if you look at the language, official language from the MEA today, it's, it has changed
05:55to peace and tranquility along the LAC.
05:58Status quo ante has been given up completely.
06:00Secondly, why, because this underscores one point that India is moving to normalize ties
06:06with Beijing, largely on China's terms, both in the economic domain and in the military domain.
06:13Both in the economic domain and the military domain, China has acquired greater leverage over India.
06:23I take your point.
06:24I think you've made some very, very strong points there.
06:28Zorabhar Doola Singh, do you agree with Brahma Chalani, who says, you know, forget about these
06:32handshakes.
06:33Look at the reality on the ground.
06:34The reality on the ground is our trade deficit with China is ballooning year after year.
06:39We haven't restored status quo ante on the LAC, especially in eastern Ladakh.
06:45And our concerns remain also on the Arunachal border.
06:50So what are we actually, what does a handshake really mean at a multilateral meeting between
06:54President Xi and Prime Minister Modi and all the fine words, if it doesn't translate into
06:59action?
07:01Well, I think Rajiv, let's step back.
07:03I think we are, this is a significant moment of contact after seven years.
07:08Both the countries went through a major military crisis in Ladakh in 2020.
07:14They have, over the period of the last seven years, have brought it down a notch.
07:19They have de-escalated tensions.
07:21Detente is important for both countries.
07:24I think let's not underestimate this contact that's happening in the larger context.
07:28The world is turning into a very different texture, a balance of power than it was a decade
07:37ago, even in 2020.
07:39Multibularity is knocking on our doors.
07:41It's getting louder each passing month.
07:44What are India and China doing?
07:45They are saying, we are going to, I'm frankly, the differences between India and China today
07:50pale in comparison to a world war style conflict we are seeing in Europe.
07:55Middle East is exploding.
07:58Globalization has lost any kind of a guiding force.
08:01So what are they doing?
08:02They are just merely tempering the differences and saying that now it's time to step up and
08:09shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing this new world order.
08:13They are playing that parallel role.
08:15And for that to happen, you've got to at least mend your fences and lower the temperature.
08:21They're doing that.
08:21I think we're jumping too many steps ahead to expect that it's all going to be like,
08:26you know, the end of, and they're going to bury the hatchet.
08:29That's a decades long story.
08:31To believe that resolution of our disputes is the starting point of a process of engagement
08:38is simply not a process that ever unfolded between two major powers.
08:43Contact, de-escalation, interdependence, competition, cooperation, have all coexisted between major
08:52parts.
08:56But, Zorawar, I'm asking what, beyond the optics, beyond the optics, what do we gain?
09:03This is not the first such handshake.
09:05There was one just a week ago or so in Kazakhstan.
09:09The question is on the ground.
09:10If China continues with export restrictions, if China continues to limit India's opportunities
09:16to emerge as a competitive manufacturing hub, where does that leave us?
09:20Already there's such an asymmetry in power when it comes to their economy versus ours.
09:24So they hold all the cards, as Brahmachalani says, and we simply are dependent, more and
09:30more dependent on China.
09:31Yeah, so, I mean, let's step back and be honest with ourselves.
09:35We have been left behind mainly because of our own domestic structural problems rather
09:40than any external force, right?
09:42I mean, that's been understood by all major economists.
09:45But that being said, it is true that China's rise is making India's rise more complicated
09:51in some ways.
09:52They have created a massive industrial juggernaut, massive capacity.
09:57Now, what do you do with that?
09:58Are you going to play the parts that the Chinese did when they were going up to the Deng Xiaoping
10:03model of leveraging the dominant powers of the day, which were the Western world?
10:07They did that, right?
10:08They did that without getting toppled over, without losing their sovereignty, and they
10:13actually have transformed themselves.
10:15Why can't we attempt that journey with both the major powers today?
10:19We've got our links with the West, which are frankly already enduring and deep, but we
10:23are completely underinvested with the economic links with China.
10:28You cannot rise without leveraging today's dominant industrial center, which is in Asia.
10:33China is the hub for that.
10:35Now, how do you do it?
10:36It's a question of your policy competence, your repertoire, and the range of bureaucratic
10:41actors that you bring to play, your economic big businesses that are going to leverage that.
10:46They're not going to hand it on a platter to you.
10:48You're going to have to fight your way through a policy comparative process the way the Chinese
10:53did with the West.
10:54They did not get it on a platter.
10:57They fought their way through sheer industrial enterprise.
11:02We have to do the same thing, but it's not going to happen by closing the door to India-China
11:07engagement.
11:11Okay, point taken.
11:12Ross Svangold, joining us from Tam Kang University in Taiwan.
11:16How do you see, how will countries like Taiwan see India and China coming closer together,
11:23or at least starting the process once again of more constant engagement in a positive atmosphere?
11:29Yeah, that's a great question, because frankly, it will be a concern for the current government
11:35in Taiwan, the current government in Taiwan would probably prefer that India was going in the direction
11:43of limiting commercial engagement with China and, to a large extent, limiting other types of engagement,
11:51such as education, cultural, tourism, across the full range.
11:56Taiwan would say China is a dangerous partner.
12:00It's not to be trusted.
12:01Taiwan is a great alternative partner for a lot of those things as well, even something like learning Mandarin.
12:10Taiwan would say, why should Indian students go to China when they could come to Taiwan?
12:15But generally, it's to Taiwan's strategic benefit if more countries are in a confrontational situation
12:24with China and looking at China as a very serious threat.
12:29And then those countries are likely to have more engagement with Taiwan, not just in trade
12:35or soft power areas, but frankly, in the security and national defense space as well.
12:42And if countries are moving in a more positive direction with China, then the result there might
12:48be that they are less willing to engage with Taiwan on security issues.
12:57I'm trying to get through to Andrew Liu, international China analyst and strategist from Hong Kong.
13:04If Andrew is with us, Andrew, you're listening to voice.
13:10OK, we'll try and bring Andrew in a moment into the conversation.
13:13But Professor Chalani, just look ahead.
13:18Do you believe that something will fundamentally change on the ground?
13:22Your first answer suggested you're skeptical.
13:25How about seeing this as two countries coming together because their mutual interest in a
13:30Trumpian-driven attempted unilateral world order is to come together even to build trade agreements,
13:39create a more conducive atmosphere for engagement?
13:43Because on the other side, you've got, you're dealing with a merculier Donald Trump who believes
13:48in unilateralism.
13:50So the Trump, the big bully, will bring India and China closer together.
13:55Do you go along with that or not?
13:57I'm all for closer engagement between China and India.
14:01I believe that closer engagement between China and India, even a working partnership between
14:08China and India can make a difference to international relations.
14:11My concern is twofold.
14:13First, my concern is about the escapism in Indian media outlets and academia.
14:23We obscure the critical issues and focus on the handshakes.
14:29And this has been happening for years now.
14:34Now, for example, look at India's economic relationship with China.
14:38Could not be more deeply asymmetric.
14:41While India relies on China for critical intermediate goods, machinery and technology, what does China
14:48import from India?
14:50Primarily, primary commodities and raw materials.
14:54One minute, one minute.
14:55Is this, is this, is this a trade relationship of the 21st century or is this a trade relationship
15:02of the imperial era of the 19th century?
15:06Second, about what's happening on the frontier, right?
15:11We keep talking, we keep hearing now that the forces have disengaged.
15:16Yes, in Ladakh, they have disengagement has happened, but not de-escalation or de-induction of forces
15:25from the Ladakh frontier.
15:27Worse, the Chinese encroachments into Ladakh, which were the biggest land grabs since the 1962 war,
15:37has China rolled back those encroachments?
15:43No.
15:44We, we obscure all that.
15:46In fact, the government of India, the Modi government has never, has never even admitted.
15:50No, no, Brahma, Brahma, my, no, no, no, Brahma, my point.
15:53No, no, I, I, no, Brahma, my, the point that Zorawar made is because Donald Trump is trying
15:58to remake the world order in a much more unilateral manner, even as the rest of the world is pushing
16:04towards multi-polarity or multi-alignment.
16:06What's wrong in looking at this relationship afresh?
16:10Well, first, the US under Trump and China under Xi Jinping are mirror images.
16:19Both are unilateralists in their policies and in their expansionism.
16:25Now, should we choose one expansionism over the other?
16:29Is, is that the argument?
16:31Or should we take a more realistic worldview of what is happening in American, American-dominated
16:40international order may not be in keeping with the, with today's realities, but would
16:45a Sino-centric world order be to India's advantage?
16:49Or should India, which is, which is one sixth of humanity, be looking at itself as a world
16:56by itself?
16:58India, India is not reliant on exports for its, for its economic growth.
17:03India relies on domestic consumption for its growth.
17:05India, India is actually a world by itself.
17:08And we need to look at India.
17:10We need, we, we, we in India need to look at the country as a country that can by itself
17:16be a major power, not, not being in the camp of one or the other unilateralist, a hegemonistic
17:25power.
17:53India, China has become a roller coaster ride.
17:55One day, Jhula diplomacy, one day handshake, next day lalank.
18:01See, you cannot stop trying.
18:04The whole process of stabilizing ties with your largest neighbor, a major military power,
18:10which has forward deployed forces, it has an alliance with the Pakistanis.
18:15Are you going to just stick your head in the stand and just let them have a free hand?
18:18Are you going to stabilize ties, change their calculus, build a collaborative partnership
18:25on aspects of international economic system that benefits you ultimately?
18:29You're not doing it out of altruism.
18:31You're giving the Indian people a chance at true development.
18:35The US-led model is going to further create predatory pressures and cut you down to size.
18:41So you have a chance today.
18:43Nobody's going into anybody's camp.
18:44If anything, we know which camp we have been in.
18:46We are trying to now retain and recover our sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
18:52For that, you cannot but have deep, enduring ties with all the major powers, Washington, Moscow,
18:58and Beijing.
18:59Today, the weak link in our foreign policy is the India-China relationship.
19:03You stabilize that, and you are sitting on a different geopolitical axis.
19:08That's the way forward.
19:13Marma, final word also from you, because you've...
19:17Do you live in hope or not at all?
19:19Do you fear that we'll be back a few months from now with another question mark
19:25over this trust deficit that we keep talking about between the two countries?
19:30I think, Rajdeep, even you will be having a similar debate within months.
19:36I can bet on that, because I've been through these debates on Indian TV channels innumerable times.
19:43Nothing changes in India, because we are escapists in terms of our strategic culture.
19:50I think BRICS is very significant as a forum for Indian and Chinese leaders to meet and discuss.
20:01In fact, Modi's Reset 3.0 began at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in 2024.
20:09And it's significant that New Delhi summit provided another opportunity for Xi Jinping and Modi to meet.
20:17BRICS is a testament to how far you can go.
20:24BRICS has been a great success in challenging the U.S.-led international order
20:32and underscoring the fact that the international institutions that were created under U.S. leadership
20:37in the aftermath of World War II cannot continue indefinitely,
20:42because they do not represent today's economic and geopolitical realities.
20:48But the real test of BRICS, which is a test also for China and India,
20:53what is the unified vision of BRICS as to what will replace the U.S.-dominated international order?
21:04That's where, if China and India can join hands and come up with a unified vision,
21:12acceptable to the broader expanded BRICS, that would be a real accomplishment.
21:19But the problem is that just the way Trump today pursues expansionism and global hegemony,
21:29Xi Jinping, in terms of the CCP, the Chinese Communist Party's own overt philosophy,
21:38is seeking to become the foremost world power by 2047, the centenary of communist rule in China.
21:50Okay, I'm going to leave it there, Brahma Chalani.
21:53Good to have you and Zorawar and my guest, Ross Fingold, joining me from Taiwan.
21:58Thank you all very much for joining me.
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