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Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit New Delhi on Saturday for the 18th BRICS Summit, marking his first India visit in seven years.
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00:00Hello and welcome to this special roundtable. We're calling it the BRICS roundtable because the big BRICS summit is being
00:07held in the national capital this weekend.
00:10Several world leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russia's Vladimir Putin, are attending the meet in New Delhi.
00:18The summit takes place at a time when the war in West Asia and Ukraine shows no signs of ending
00:24oil prices on fire amidst global uncertainty.
00:28Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stressed several times that this is not an era of war, but the fact is
00:35on the ground the war and uncertainty continues.
00:39There will also of course be that big bilateral between the Indian Prime Minister and the Chinese President.
00:46Can that overcome or bridge at least part of the trust deficit between the countries?
00:51In fact, what role will BRICS really play amidst all these escalating conflicts and times of uncertainty in a Trumpian
01:00world?
01:01We will take up several of those issues with a special panel of guests from across the world.
01:07But first, let's bring you the latest on the BRICS summit.
01:11Take a look at the big developments.
01:13Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding a bilateral meeting with President Vladimir Putin of Russia ahead of the BRICS summit.
01:21The two leaders reviewing Indo-Russian ties from defence and energy to trade and industrial cooperation.
01:27Global conflicts also figuring in the talks with Prime Minister reiterating India's call for dialogue and diplomacy to end the
01:35war between Russia and Ukraine.
01:36The Russian President Putin taking a swipe at the G7 while highlighting the growing economic heft of BRICS.
01:43Speaking at the BRICS Business Forum, Putin questioned why the grouping of advanced economies was still called the G7,
01:49claiming that BRICS nations now account for 40% share of the global GDP.
01:54Putin also accusing Western nations of trying to undermine BRICS countries.
01:59Ahead of the Modi-Zhi bilateral Beijing calling for India and China to properly handle their differences,
02:06the Chinese Foreign Ministry saying the two countries should strengthen communication,
02:10enhance mutual trust, expand exchanges and cooperation,
02:14Beijing saying India-China tie should be viewed from a strategic long-term perspective.
02:19Prime Minister Modi also holding an important bilateral meeting with Iranian President Masood Pezeshkian
02:24On the sidelines of the BRICS summit, the high-stakes talks come amidst the escalation once again in the West
02:30Asia war.
02:31Oil prices spiking and just 11 days after the two leaders also met in Bishkek on the sidelines of the
02:37SCO summit.
02:38India has expressed its concern over the Strait of Hormuz in particular.
02:43Iran-backed Houthis meanwhile have seized the strategic Mayun Island located in the Babal Mandam Strait,
02:49tightening their control around the crucial shipping choke point.
02:52The takeover comes after their capture of Zoukar Island and advances along Yemen's Red Sea coast.
02:58The fresh escalation in West Asia led to crude oil prices crossing $100 per barrel,
03:05briefly reaching $108 with markets as a result plummeting and remaining volatile through the day.
03:15Okay, let's then set the stage for the BRICS roundtable that we're doing with my first special guest,
03:21joined by Ambassador Javed Ashraf.
03:24He's been ambassador to several countries and also now is chairman of the Indian Trade Promotion Organization,
03:30so central to India's economic outreach to different countries.
03:34Good to have you, Mr. Ashraf, on the show today.
03:38The summit is taking place at a time of global conflicts.
03:43We've seen the conflict in ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine gone on for more than five years.
03:48We've seen what's been happening in the Gulf today.
03:51Oil prices shooting up because the conflict shows no sign of ending the Saudis and the Houthis also now in
03:57conflict.
03:58What does this summitry really mean if it can't end conflicts?
04:02The prime minister talks about the need for dialogue diplomacy, but Putin, Peseshkian, no sign of ending the wars.
04:12Well, I think, first of all, you know, that's not the objective of BRICS, both when it came into existence
04:19and as it is now.
04:20Now, conflicts, this is always an opportunity, any summit, any kind of a grouping that meets.
04:27It's always an opportunity to speak about conflicts, especially if those who are involved in those conflicts are present at
04:34the table.
04:35But that's not the objective of BRICS.
04:37Any conflict will can only be resolved if the parties involved in those conflicts are interested in returning to dialogue
04:45and diplomacy and are willing to have any mediation, mediatory efforts for it.
04:51As long as that doesn't exist, you know, no matter how many times people engage in this kind of mediation
04:58efforts, it doesn't work.
04:59And I think you're familiar with our part of the world or any other.
05:02But I think the larger objective of BRICS, in fact, shows that in this time of conflict, in this time
05:08of turbulence, uncertainty, volatility, constantly shifting alliances, new alliances being formed, new equations being forged, that BRICS represents something.
05:19One, of course, is that you can see it's this time also the convening power of India that we've been
05:25able to get together a large number of leaders, both from the BRICS countries, including President Xi and President Putin.
05:32But also from partner countries, but also from partner countries, outreach countries, heads of agencies, including UN Secretary General.
05:38And remember, these are countries that really cut across the entire world, from Latin America all the way to Asia,
05:45Southeast Asia, Gulf, Africa.
05:47This is really a coming together, a very diverse set of countries in the context of a global south in
05:56particular, but also Asia.
05:58And here are countries that have tensions, conflicts or differences with each other.
06:04But the reason they are here is because despite these differences, they feel they can come together around a common
06:11agenda that helps advance something that they are interested in.
06:15Can I just stop you for a moment?
06:17You're saying they are coming together for a common agenda.
06:20I mean, take India and China.
06:22There's going to be the big bilateral between the Indian Prime Minister and the Chinese President.
06:26The question will arise.
06:28We've seen the differences that we've had post-Galwan with China.
06:32What does symmetry really do to that?
06:35Are we saying that this is twin track, that China, we can have economic partnerships,
06:40be part of a multilateral forum with the Chinese, even as we continue to have our disputes on the border?
06:46I'm just trying to make sense.
06:47Look at UAE and Iran, both at the table.
06:51But both have had, you know, Iran has bombed parts of UAE only in the last few months on more
06:56than one occasion.
06:57Saudi Arabia and Iran.
06:59The conflicts within, are they going to be settled by?
07:02What is this common agenda at all?
07:04Is it just optics?
07:05No, I'd say this is precisely because we are still locked in that old concept of groupings and alliances,
07:13which used to have a very high degree of homogeneity, if you looked at the West or if you looked
07:20at the old Warsaw Pact.
07:22But let me give you an example of ASEAN, extremely successful coming together of 10, now 11 countries in Southeast
07:31Asia.
07:311967, this was when they were formed.
07:34This was a region divided by a very brutal war.
07:38It wasn't just the conflicts between the countries.
07:40It was the theater of an acute Cold War competition.
07:44They have built something around, despite their differences,
07:47they continue to have sometimes conflicts and differences with each other.
07:51They're not looking for unanimity of view.
07:53They're looking for consensus on issues that bring all of them together.
07:58And I think when you come to India and China, for example, or you look at BRICS,
08:02it's a country, it's exactly that highlights the importance of a grouping like BRICS in a situation where you see
08:11so much turbulence in the world,
08:13almost like a bit, to borrow a phrase from physics, a Brownian motion where countries are cooperating, colliding, competing with
08:20each other.
08:21So here, India and China, two countries with a very complex relationship, you know, and it isn't just about the
08:28boundary question.
08:29It is also about, you know, the mistrust, the fact that how we see each other in our own neighborhood
08:36and in the rest of the world
08:37and how India and China looks at India in the context of global institutions, as you know, that is an
08:42area of great difference between us.
08:44But there is also an opportunity in BRICS to find ways to work together on issues that matter to us
08:51and matter to them.
08:52And maybe when you meet in a situation like BRICS, around the table, as also taking use of this opportunity
09:01to have a bilateral meeting,
09:03maybe you can move things forward.
09:05And I think at this point of time, the very fact that President Xi Jinping is over here has come
09:11with a large delegation.
09:12We've had some meetings between senior government officials just before that on the boundary question.
09:19Special representatives have met with each other, shows that there is an interest in trying to wind a way forward
09:27in maintaining peace and tranquility along the border and finding ways to work together in a bilateral context
09:34and to see how we can advance some of the issues in the BRICS domain.
09:38But is there a fundamental dilemma of identity?
09:43BRICS coming together as a voice of the global south or BRICS coming together as an anti-Western alliance?
09:50When I hear Vladimir Putin, when I hear Pejesh Kian of Iran, the sense you get, they have their own
09:56interests
09:56and those interests are not necessarily the same as India's interests.
09:59Will India have to therefore navigate very carefully at BRICS?
10:03You've got China, which possibly wants to have a dominant anti-West alliance.
10:08Where does India fit in? Has India got to be very careful here?
10:12Listen, right from the time, you know, BRICS came into existence and when it had its first meeting in 2009,
10:20which was hosted by Russia, and I personally also attended some of those BRICS meetings,
10:25I think we've been very clear about our position.
10:28And the position has been that this cannot be an anti-West platform or anti-any specific country platform,
10:37that we need to focus on issues that brought us together, work on a positive agenda in two domains.
10:43One is what can we do for each other and advance our interests?
10:48And second is what can we do to shape a more inclusive, multipolar world, both in terms of the multilateral
10:55institutions
10:55and making sure that the voice of the global South and a much more representative character exists in these institutions
11:03of governance.
11:04I mean, those two objectives is what binds us together.
11:06And we are also responding to new issues that emerge.
11:10And when you see the agenda that government, India has set for this, it's actually very interesting.
11:16When you see the agenda and the theme, resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability,
11:22resilience, Rajdeep, is a word that has entered the domain of international diplomacy very recently.
11:29And it has become a very, very sort of a word that enters now every joint statement.
11:35So tell me in 30 seconds what it means.
11:37You know, Sean of the Diploma, what does it really mean? A quick answer.
11:40It means, it simply means, are you in this volatile world forging instruments that enable you to withstand shocks
11:49and deal with all kinds of volatile changes that exist?
11:53And this is some, one thing that, you know, India is focusing on and it involves a number of issues
12:00that we are working on this time,
12:03both in the context of our multilateral institutions, but also what we can do together in areas like agriculture, health,
12:11energy, digital, environment,
12:13global supply chains, logistic supply chain, energy storage.
12:16There are, I mean, it's a very big list of issues that we are bringing to the table on which
12:23I'm confident we'll have positive outcomes.
12:25Before the summit happened, Rajdeep, there were 350 meetings that took place, 22 ministerials, 10 agency level meetings.
12:33All of this has kind of brought us to a position where we're looking for a number of positive outcomes.
12:40Remember, who would have thought that there would be a new development bank,
12:43which was the Indian idea and which has done quite well in terms of, in terms of its lending practices
12:49and governance.
12:49It's already there.
12:51And incidentally, I don't know how many people know that 30% of the lending now is, is in, in
12:57national currencies.
12:57It's a, it's a, it's a great thing.
12:59Then we have the contingent reserve arrangement.
13:03I'm going to leave it there.
13:04So resilience, resilience is something that we requires this level of diversified engagement
13:11and, and diversified sets of instruments that enable you to deal with the challenges of the present
13:17and emerging challenges of the future.
13:19Javed Ashraf, for joining me there and giving us your perspective.
13:23Good to have you on the show.
13:24Thank you very much.
13:53Thank you very much.
13:57I'm joined by Ashok Malik, partner, the Asia group.
14:00He's joining me here from New Delhi.
14:02Good to have all of you on the show.
14:03I'm going to raise the first big question then in this widening debate.
14:07Is India-China equation the elephant in the bricks room?
14:12Aina Tanger, why don't you take that?
14:15There's a belief that there's this big meeting going to take place,
14:17the bilateral between President Xi and Prime Minister Modi.
14:20And many believe that is the elephant or there I say the dragon in the room.
14:24Can that trust deficit between Beijing and Delhi be overcome by this summit?
14:30Well, I don't think it's just one summit.
14:33We're talking about three meetings over three years.
14:35This is the first time that Xi has been in India in seven years.
14:40Obviously, there are signs of resets.
14:42There are a number of meetings that are happening on the border issue.
14:46But this particular summit is going to really look at the long term,
14:53not just what's going on between India and China,
14:56but how the world can react to an increasingly aggressive United States
15:01without getting into a direct confrontation.
15:05Obviously, there's been a lot of bullying.
15:07We've seen what's happening to America's closest ally and neighbor, Canada.
15:13countries, the only thing they can do is come together.
15:17Because, you know, the bully in Washington only listens to a bigger bully.
15:21And he's obviously made it very clear he does not like the idea of BRICS,
15:27mainly because it represents a much larger entity than the United States.
15:31So I would caution about saying this is all about India and China.
15:36I'd say this is about the global south,
15:38about a lot of the issues that your previous guest was talking about.
15:42And that is that this is the global south speaking,
15:46trying to get along, even though they have very different agendas,
15:50very different governments,
15:51and many differences, actually, you know, volatility,
15:55in terms of you start looking at Iran and UAE.
16:00But they can come together and try to figure out things they can agree on.
16:04And that's extremely important, especially the old model,
16:08which was always about you're either with me or against me.
16:11But is it the fear of the bully that's bringing China and India together here?
16:18Is it the fear of Donald Trump, the need, in a way,
16:21of some level of mutual interdependence?
16:24Well, you know, I don't really think that you...
16:28Russia is also concerned.
16:29Iran is concerned.
16:31I think South Africa is concerned.
16:32Brazil is concerned.
16:33I mean, they're having an election now
16:35where Donald Trump is deliberately interfering,
16:38you know, without trying to hide it.
16:41There's other countries.
16:42You look at Venezuela.
16:43Cuba is under things.
16:44I mean, Greenland.
16:46How many things do I have to point out
16:49to make it clear that this is a global issue
16:53and that India and China,
16:55who have agreed to support each other
16:57through this BRICS meeting and the next one,
17:00are part of the leadership of this,
17:03trying to be responsible?
17:04Yes, every country has its own interests,
17:06but you cannot have a whole without somebody leading.
17:10You know, Ashok Malik,
17:12you just heard what Aina Tangent said,
17:14and I'm putting on the screen our trade imbalance with China itself.
17:17It's over $112 billion.
17:19I mean, it's one thing to say that we need to come together
17:23on mutual issues of mutual concern,
17:26but it's been a very volatile relationship,
17:28particularly in the last decade.
17:30Can India separate what could be done together at BRICS
17:34from mutual antagonisms that still exist on the border,
17:39exist on the trade asymmetry?
17:41Can you really separate all of this
17:43and say, no, now we are coming together
17:45on a minimum agenda, in a way, of sorts,
17:49because we are worried about
17:50what Donald Trump might do in the White House?
17:54Thanks, Rajseep.
17:55A couple of points here.
17:56One, BRICS is not a trade collective.
17:59It's not a political collective.
18:01It is a partnership.
18:03It is a grouping of developing countries
18:06or emerging economies, if you will,
18:09which came together to share economic experiences,
18:12share supply chain and business partnerships
18:17and attributes where possible.
18:21And, you know, in areas such as healthcare, agriculture,
18:25share best practices, payment systems, perhaps,
18:27where that could work.
18:29And there are limitations to all of these.
18:30However, the strength of BRICS,
18:33even the expanded BRICS,
18:34all the 21 countries that will be together
18:36as BRICS members and as BRICS partner countries
18:39over the weekend in New Delhi,
18:42is the bilateral relationships
18:44and the bilateral trade relationships.
18:45India and China, of course,
18:47India and Russia, India and Egypt,
18:49India and Nigeria, India and the UAE,
18:51Saudi Arabia and the UAE,
18:53Saudi Arabia and China, all of these.
18:56BRICS is an organization
18:57where the sum of the parts
19:01matters more than the whole in many ways.
19:03We are living in a challenging world.
19:05We are living in a world
19:06where U.S. market access
19:08is extremely important for India,
19:10but U.S. market access is being weaponized.
19:13However, India's manufacturing
19:15needs cooperation with China,
19:18needs components, ingredients,
19:20supply chains, commodities from China.
19:22And China is also weaponizing both.
19:24So if the U.S. is weaponizing market access,
19:27China is weaponizing access to supply chains.
19:30India needs to work with both.
19:32It's not easy.
19:33But a non-conversation is not the solution.
19:37And that is what India is attempting to do.
19:40Michael Kugelman,
19:42do you think, therefore,
19:43that BRICS can actually bring countries
19:46which may have other antagonisms
19:48together on a wider platform
19:50on issues like agriculture,
19:52healthcare, sharing of best practices,
19:54build business partnerships?
19:56Or do you believe that,
19:57the question I pose,
19:59China remains the elephant in the room
20:00because it wants to be a dominant player today,
20:03possibly use BRICS to become a leader
20:06that challenges the Western world?
20:09I mean, I think that we have to acknowledge
20:12just how influential China is within BRICS.
20:15But I do not think that this is just about China.
20:19We could talk a lot about how there's so much
20:21that the BRICS membership do not agree on,
20:25and particularly given that you've had
20:27an expansion of members.
20:28And I'd argue there's an interesting irony at place here
20:30that the fact that BRICS has expanded
20:32shows how increasingly prominent and influential it is.
20:36But at the same time,
20:37that expansion is going to make it more difficult
20:39for BRICS to be effective
20:40because you have more members coming in
20:42that don't agree.
20:42But despite that lack of consensus on many issues,
20:45I do think that the issue of the United States,
20:48quite frankly,
20:49and the Trump administration's protectionism
20:52and unilateralism, particularly through tariffs,
20:54that has created, or should I say intensified,
20:58a lot of anxiety across the world,
21:00particularly within the global South.
21:01And I think that the theme
21:03that your previous speaker had mentioned,
21:05the theme that's going to drive this summit,
21:06resilience, which I read as economic resilience,
21:09that's something that's going to play well
21:10throughout the entire membership of BRICS,
21:13from the bigger economies in it,
21:15like India and China,
21:15to some of the poorer countries in BRICS,
21:19just because everyone,
21:21pretty much these countries are all concerned
21:23about the impact of these U.S. tariffs
21:26on their economies and on the global economy.
21:28So I think it's really savvy on the part of the hosts
21:31to identify resilience and sustainability as the themes.
21:36I think if they start trying to talk about the war on Iran,
21:39they're not going to get very far
21:40just because of the Iran-UAE situation.
21:43But I think that absolutely the economic issues
21:46are those that can certainly have a better chance
21:50of driving consensus this weekend.
21:53So let me put the second big question
21:54and widen the debate once again.
21:56Can BRICS play the role of a peacemaker
21:58in the age of global conflicts?
22:01Let's take that to you, Mr. Suchet.
22:04You're there in Moscow.
22:05You've got an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine,
22:07gone on for five years.
22:09Today, Vladimir Putin says,
22:10we want friends across the world,
22:12but we want to safeguard our own interests.
22:14The Prime Minister of India
22:15has repeatedly said this is not an era of war,
22:18but we don't see the war ending.
22:19If anything, it's intensifying.
22:21So, I mean, can BRICS really play any role as peacemaker
22:25or is it about economic resilience,
22:27a point which is now being made
22:28by more and more of my speakers?
22:31Well, I think the comments from Prime Minister Modi
22:34to the Russian president
22:35about the need to urgently bring the war to a close,
22:39I think those comments were very well received
22:42by Vladimir Putin.
22:43You have to understand that the relationship
22:45between Putin and Modi,
22:47it not only goes back to many, many years,
22:48but the relationship between Russia and India
22:51goes back to the days of the Soviet Union.
22:53There are memories,
22:56there are traditional partnerships,
22:58there are many times when the USSR
23:00or even Russia these days came to help India,
23:03and today being no exception
23:04with many aspects of the economy.
23:06But you had originally asked if perhaps,
23:09on a smaller scale regarding the BRICS family,
23:12is the elephant in the room India and China
23:16and their relationship?
23:17Well, let's just say, hypothetically, it might be.
23:20Well, then let's bring in the Russian factor,
23:23Vladimir Putin.
23:24Perhaps some people see him as a potential bridge,
23:28partnering, the friendship between Modi
23:30and, of course, Xi.
23:32Perhaps Putin is the bridge.
23:34He is the one in the middle who joins hands with both of them
23:37to show what is the emphasis, the template,
23:40the infrastructure of the BRICS family.
23:42As Aina was saying,
23:43it's about inclusion.
23:45It's about respect.
23:47It's about achieving prosperity and sovereignty
23:50without, as Aina was saying,
23:52being under the microscope
23:53of the world's traditional bully.
23:56No, no, so is it from a Russian perspective
23:59about an anti-West alliance?
24:00A quick answer.
24:02Listen, you know the answer to this already, Rajdeep.
24:05And the answer is, it's not anti-Western.
24:07It's not just Western.
24:09But it is time, however.
24:10It is time for countries to start to be able to allow
24:13to be able to act in their own best interests.
24:17And that is why you're seeing these strategic gatherings.
24:19Is it an act of self-preservation, Rajdeep?
24:22Is it an act of sovereignty?
24:24It might well be.
24:25But as we move forward,
24:27we're moving forward with international partnerships
24:29based on equality.
24:31Okay, I want to go to Mehrzad,
24:33political scientist, Iran expert.
24:35Mehrzad Buroji is Dean of College of Arts and Sciences
24:38Education at Missouri University.
24:41Mehrzad, your sense.
24:42The weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran.
24:45Apparently, India is concerned about it.
24:47Other countries are concerned.
24:49Supply linkages being disrupted in the manner they are
24:52because of the war in West Asia.
24:53And yet the war shows no signs of ending.
24:56I mean, what do you see Iran's role being in multilateral forums
25:00like BRICS, where it may seem to have much more of a voice
25:03than in many other multilateral forums?
25:06Right.
25:07So I think the closure of this Strait of Hormuz
25:10has certainly caused energy security issues for India
25:14and many of the other members of BRICS, for sure.
25:17And definitely these will be discussed, you know,
25:21in this round of discussion in India.
25:26Prominent among those is really going to be the disagreement
25:29between the United Arab Emirates and Iran
25:32that have been on opposing sides of this war,
25:36with UAE much closer to the U.S. side, etc.
25:40So, you know, a few months ago when the foreign ministers
25:43of BRICS nation were meeting, you know,
25:47they could not really issue a joint statement
25:51because of these differences between Iran and the UAE.
25:55So I would be interested to see whether this time
25:58it's going to be any different
25:59or are we going to have a repeat of that same failure
26:03in that sense.
26:04For the Iranians, there is a lot that they want to discuss,
26:08you know, in addition to the war.
26:11The referral of Iran to the United Nations
26:14by the International Atomic Energy Agency
26:17is something that Tehran has its mind.
26:21Certainly wanting to make sure that the BRICS countries
26:25are not going to go along with U.S. secondary sanctions.
26:29And therefore, you know, Iran will certainly
26:31be pushing proposals such as a barter agreement
26:35or non-dollar-based transactions.
26:38You know, Casey Singh, you're listening to these varied voices.
26:41You yourself have, of course, served in the United Arab Emirates.
26:44You know Tehran as well.
26:47Do you believe that BRICS can actually be a bridge,
26:50as Mr. Suchet suggested there, from Moscow
26:52or Vladimir Putin could actually bring a Xi
26:54and Mr. Modi closer together?
26:57Could you conceivably bring UAE and Iran closer together?
27:00That's not going to happen.
27:01That that would be expecting too much of BRICS,
27:03which most panellists believe has a much more limited economic agenda.
27:09Right, absolutely.
27:10You have to be pragmatic.
27:11This is not the time for BRICS to be able
27:15or capable of playing a role.
27:17As the Houthis have just captured Bab al-Mandag,
27:21the entrance to the Red Sea.
27:23They've demolished the major pipeline of Saudi Arabia,
27:27which is taking oil from the Gulf to the Red Sea.
27:31Now, this is happening because President Trump has tightened the economic screws on Iran.
27:36So, the problem is there.
27:38And the Iranians had said that if you tighten the economic screws,
27:41then we will expand this economic warfare by involving the entire Gulf in it.
27:47Now, which are the countries involved?
27:49Now, until U.S. is in the panel,
27:52you have really nothing to discuss.
27:54And they've got under 55 days left for the November elections.
27:58And Iran knows it, having suffered already whatever U.S. and Israel could inflict.
28:05I think they would like to wait and see what happens on the November 4 election.
28:11And in any case, President of Iran doesn't have the power to sit down and negotiate.
28:17If you know he's not been negotiating,
28:19negotiations are done by an entirely different team,
28:21which is reporting to the new power structure, which has IRGC.
28:26No, no. So, where does that leave BRICS?
28:32Just look at it.
28:33Markets have been volatile in India because of oil prices once again going to $108 a barrel.
28:38So, you have all the symmetry going on, exchange of pleasantries,
28:41lots of platitudes, wars must end.
28:44But most of my guests seem to suggest that's not BRICS agenda.
28:47But the truth is the world wants global uncertainty to end.
28:50That's what's going to bring nations together.
28:56The BRICS membership was, original membership was just Brazil, Russia, India and China.
29:01And then South Africa was added a year later.
29:04And now the last expansion was 2024.
29:07And that's where I think Russia and China were pushing for Iran's admission.
29:12And probably India back then, UAE coming in to balance it.
29:15But at that point, the attack on Iran had not occurred in 2024.
29:20So, it was supposed to be a place where new countries coming in could combine and push the economic, environment,
29:29connectivity agenda.
29:30Now, what is the agenda that India is presenting?
29:33You're talking of, you know, basically looking at disruption that has happened in the world, supply chain disruption.
29:41And then, of course, you're talking of climate change.
29:44You're talking of use of new technologies.
29:46All that is good.
29:48But the problem is the basic difference of opinion between India and China.
29:52The Chinese want a reform of the multilateral global system.
29:57By that, they mean the World Bank and the IMF.
29:59But if you talk of UN Security Council and its expansion, which Brazil want, India want, the Chinese resent it.
30:07They're not going to allow you to expand the UN Security Council.
30:10Can I just take what you've just said to Aina Tangan?
30:13Because Aina, and this leads me to my next question, is BRICS a counter to US-led groupings like G20?
30:20The fact is, there will be those who will argue that China wants to eat its cake and have it
30:25too.
30:25Yes, you want economic engagement.
30:28You want to be seen as an economic superpower.
30:31But would you be willing, would China be willing to restructure, remake the UN Security Council to have India have
30:37a place at the high table?
30:39The question arises that China wants a lot out of BRICS, including leadership.
30:44Is it willing to give back enough?
30:48You know, I think your question is the problem.
30:51Well, this idea that a bunch of countries are coming together so that India can get something out of it.
30:59I think that's the wrong attitude.
31:01This is supposed to be about leadership.
31:03The world is confronted by the United States.
31:07President Donald Trump, as I said before, is a rogue agent.
31:11And instead of talking about the fact that the world needs, the rest of the world needs to come together
31:16as a group in order to counter that, not confront, but to counter it, to give itself resilience.
31:22I think that is the issue.
31:24And this previous statement by one of my colleagues, that somehow BRICS is more important as individual entities rather than
31:32the whole, I thoroughly disagree with.
31:35The fact is that Donald Trump is afraid of the collective.
31:39He's afraid of that 40 percent of GDP.
31:42And it's the only way to bring it about.
31:44In terms of the politics, you know, nothing's going to change.
31:48Wars aren't working.
31:49I don't know if anyone's noticed that, but they aren't.
31:52So right now you have ideologues in Washington who believe that they need to maintain a hegemony at all costs,
31:59American exceptionalism.
32:01But the fact is the world has changed.
32:02It is a bunch of nations, not simply everybody for themselves.
32:08And if there's going to be a reform of the UNSC, it should be that you get rid of the
32:14veto, not increase it to more countries.
32:18That is the issue.
32:19You cannot have an equal organization where others are more equal than the other ones.
32:24So right now I would hope and I believe that Modi wants to have a structure that India can work
32:33within rather than saying I need a few points or I need to have a seat on the council.
32:38These things are ephemeral.
32:40They're not going to change the world and they're not going to change India.
32:43Is China committed to this idea of multilateralism as represented by BRICS?
32:48Is it committed to being a part of it or does it want leadership?
32:53Straight, you know, clear.
32:54Does it want leadership?
32:55No, it doesn't.
32:55It doesn't.
32:56It's not possible.
32:57As has been said, this is a group that comes together by consensus.
33:02You can't impose consensus.
33:04Everyone would leave if China said, look, we're in charge.
33:08We're going to do the American thing.
33:10You know, this is the problem with when we talk, we are still stuck in the past.
33:15This idea that you need a hegemon, that whoever is on top is going to impose their will, that it
33:21should be all transactional.
33:23We are entering a multipolar world where Asian values are going to be more predominant.
33:28And that is about consensus and how you bring that about.
33:31And that is not imposed.
33:33It's not jumping out in front.
33:35And I worry sometimes because I hear this argument continually from the Indian side, different intellectuals.
33:42And it tells me that they're still thinking in the old way.
33:45And I think it's time to change that.
33:48Before I come to you, Michael Kugelman, about sort of how the U.S. sees it.
33:52Quick response, Casey, to what you heard from Aynar at the moment.
33:55Are you thinking in the old way when you look at China that, according to Aynar Tangent, China, too, is
34:01willing to accept the realities of this new multipolar world?
34:06I doubt it very much.
34:08I think China wants, China is very delighted with the G2 formulation of President Trump.
34:13It's a new kind of bipolarity where the Russians are with them, but they treat India at a lower level.
34:21I don't think China would accept India to rise and therefore become a competitor for China.
34:28China thinks there's a dominant power of Asia.
34:30And globally, it wants to be the main competitor to U.S.
34:34So where does India fit into this?
34:37They are not going to share technology with you, which helps you rise.
34:40They will keep the border problem hanging on your head.
34:44You already see that the commanders had to be meeting about the Arunachal border.
34:48Why is that happening just before BRICS?
34:51We had not heard about it.
34:52It's been seven years since President Xi came here.
34:55And last time he came, immediately after that, the problem started in late.
35:00And why does it always happen that whenever Indian image seems to be going up, the Chinese would always stir
35:05up the border?
35:06Can I get Aina, who's going to leave us shortly, to respond to you?
35:10Aina, you know, the original question I asked was, is China the elephant in the room?
35:17Maybe I'm going to ask Michael whether Trump is the elephant in the room.
35:20But you want to respond, what does China, in your view, doesn't China need to do a little bit more
35:25to reassure Indian skeptics like Casey Singh about Chinese intentions at BRICS?
35:31No, Casey has proved my point.
35:33He does think in the old way.
35:34I mean, if you want proof of what China is willing to do, it has shared technology.
35:38It was the country that was willing to allow its, you know, vaccine plans to be placed all over the
35:46world
35:47when the West was not willing to do it.
35:49It is the one that's put almost $1.4 trillion into the Belt and Road Initiative.
35:54But it sees India as a competitor and rival.
35:57No, it doesn't.
35:58In 2013, Xi Jinping made a speech.
36:03He said that China and India together could determine not only the fate of Asia, but the fate of the
36:11world.
36:11So that is not the remark of a hegemon seeking dominance over.
36:17He didn't say, well, India needs to come with us.
36:20He says, together.
36:22And I think it's very clear that China believes that, you know, every country needs to be retreated with respect.
36:30And I would, you know, Casey, I think you shouldn't come to China instead of barking on the sidelines.
36:35I mean, the fact is, it's a wonderful country.
36:38It's safe.
36:38You can walk around at 4 a.m. in the morning, all right?
36:41And no one has any fears about it.
36:44There's tremendous new things that are happening, transportation systems, infrastructure.
36:49And you can say, oh, well, but it's an authoritarian country.
36:53Well, I dare you to say that if you go on to Weibo, the Chinese social media.
36:58It is free and open.
37:00People have very, very, very different...
37:03This is a roundtable, but I'll give Casey one more chance, a quick response.
37:09Why does it always happen that President Xi comes here, 2019, the Chinese troops in large numbers were just doing
37:17an exercise,
37:18and then they come across the LAC and intrude in Eastern Leia?
37:23We were supposed to have already a mechanism for discussions.
37:27Why is it again happening on the Arunachal border?
37:30Why are the commanders meeting now?
37:32Come on.
37:32You know, you can keep saying what you want, but the Chinese angle is very clear.
37:36They want to be the dominant power of Asia, and that's why they're pushing into countries around India.
37:43And the problem is that we had quad to counterbalance China, and President Trump has unbalanced it.
37:51That was supposed to balance both SEO and BRICS.
37:54I've heard both of you.
37:55Michael Gugelman, as I said, we started with saying China is the elephant in the room,
37:59and you're seeing even in the roundtable, the India-China sort of debate playing out.
38:05But what's your view?
38:06How does the U.S. see BRICS?
38:08How does Washington see BRICS in the Trumpian age,
38:11where Trump has resorted to the foreign policy based on unilateralism?
38:18Do they see this as some kind of a challenge to U.S. dominance?
38:24Yeah, great question.
38:25But first, very quickly, on the China issue, let's keep in mind the broader geopolitical context.
38:31It's been almost two years that we've seen China and India working together toward a modest rapprochement.
38:37It goes back to a border deal that was concluded in October 2024, before Trump was even re-elected.
38:42And so I think we should see President Xi's visit to India, which is really coming not as a bilateral
38:48visit.
38:48It's to participate in a regional summit.
38:51But I think we need to look at it in that broader context.
38:55But to your question about the U.S., I think you're absolutely right.
38:58I think that it's Trump that is the elephant in the room at this summit.
39:02Because as I had said earlier, it is really his policies, his administration's policies, the tariff policies, the broader protectionism,
39:10the unilateralism and all of that.
39:12That is what has inspired the theme of this summit, just because it's clear that the entire membership is concerned
39:20about the economic effects of these Trump administration policies.
39:25So the focus is going to be on how to be economically resilient.
39:28But in terms of how the U.S. is looking at the summit, I think that Washington – and I'm
39:32not just referring to the current administration – but many U.S. governments tend to mischaracterize and misunderstand BRICS.
39:39I think there's a tendency for Washington to look at it as either a completely irrelevant entity that is nothing
39:47but a talk shop, which is wrong because we know that you have a BRICS development bank that has dozens
39:54of investments at play.
39:55It's been able to get a number of things done.
39:57That's one characterization.
39:59The other one, which I think is also wrong, is that it is something that's bent on taking on the
40:04West and the United States.
40:06And that is the position that President Trump has taken.
40:08You'll recall that he threatened to slap tariffs on BRICS countries that try to undercut the U.S. dollar.
40:13I think we can all agree that a critical mass of the BRICS membership, including those countries that are not
40:18friends of the U.S., are too reliant on the U.S. dollar and the global economy to actually take
40:23steps that could seek to undercut much of the U.S.
40:27much less sink or destroy the U.S. dollar in the global economy.
40:30So I think that Washington will certainly be watching very closely the proceedings of this summit.
40:36If there happens to be a picture taken of Xi and Putin and Modi standing together, this happened in China
40:44at the SCO summit last year, President Trump will not react to that.
40:48You'll see an angry post from him on social media.
40:50But, you know, my own view, my message I would give to Washington is that BRICS may not be the
40:56best thing for U.S. interests.
40:58It certainly does not advance U.S. interests.
41:00But I do not see it as something that threatens U.S. economic interests just because the types of steps
41:07that would really imperil U.S. interests are not steps that this initiative, that BRICS will take just because there's
41:14too much of a dependence on the U.S. dollar.
41:16You know, the BRICS bank, you know, it's just another global financial institution that seeks to provide investment to support
41:22countries, particularly the global south.
41:24I don't see how that should threaten U.S. interest.
41:27So that would be my message to Washington.
41:30Right.
41:30So let's come to the next question.
41:32Is India's future with BRICS or being part of a pro-West group like Quad?
41:35Ashoq Malik, yesterday I had Professor Jeffrey Sachs.
41:39He's very pro-China.
41:40But he said India should dump the Quad, dump alliances with the United States and see its future not with
41:46the U.S. and Europe, but instead see its future in BRICS.
41:50And then I read Surjit Bhalla today who says, forget about BRICS.
41:55India's future lies in stronger ties with the U.S. and Europe.
41:59Where do you stand?
42:01Look, from Nehru's time to Modi's time, thankfully, Indian foreign policy hasn't been driven by the extremes of Jeffrey Sachs
42:08or Surjit Bhalla.
42:09Okay, we take very recent sensible positions based on our national interest.
42:14Let me give you one example.
42:16I read Surjit Bhalla's screed and it is a screed.
42:18Surjit Bhalla says the U.S. and the West are our market.
42:22True.
42:22Very true.
42:23Which is why we're signing FTAs with those countries or trade agreements with those countries.
42:26But look at the 21 countries in India, in Delhi today and tomorrow for the BRICS meeting.
42:32They include countries from which we import energy, gas, oil, LPG, a range of countries from the West, from Nigeria
42:41to the UAE, to Russia.
42:43These include countries from whom we import fertilizer from Egypt to China, Egypt to Russia, I'm sorry, to Saudi Arabia.
42:50They include countries from whom we import components and ingredients for mobile phones, electronics, factory equipment, China.
42:58Where does Surjit Bhalla plan to get the supply chains to export finished goods from India to the West, from
43:05the Surjit Bhalla farm goods or from these countries?
43:08How can you neglect all these countries and all these trade relationships?
43:12This is part of our economy as much as America and the West are.
43:15We can't choose.
43:16We have to work with both, even though relationships are difficult sometimes, including with China.
43:21Yes, but you see that the point is, Mr. Suchet, for example, taking off from what Ashok Malik said, look
43:26at our relationship with Russia, a country with which we've had a very strong relationship over the years.
43:32They've been our all-weather friend in a way, as they are called.
43:35But when you look at it, when we imported Russian oil, what does the U.S. do?
43:39Impose sanctions or threatens to weaponize tariffs and say we are going to expand tariffs exponentially.
43:46India backs off.
43:48Do you believe, therefore, that we can afford to have a BRICS emerging as some kind of a kind of
43:59response or a kind of alternative to U.S.-led groups like Quad?
44:05The United States still calls the shots.
44:08As we said, Donald Trump is probably the elephant in the room, Mr. Suchet.
44:12Yeah, and I think very well said, indeed, that Trump more than likely is the elephant in the room.
44:17You know, some people like to say that Trump is an imperialist.
44:20And if, indeed, he is an imperialist, then imperialism is in stark conflict with that of a multipolar world order.
44:28Why do you think Trump started dishing out all these massive tariffs on a whole number of BRICS members?
44:33I mean, it was so disappointing to me that a good number of months ago now, when Modi was visiting
44:38Trump in Washington, there was a good hug and there was a really, really good meeting.
44:42And then Modi comes back home to India, and two days later, he's slapped with these enormous tariffs.
44:47You know, Trump is unpredictable.
44:49That's why he is the elephant in the room.
44:51No one really knows what kind of mood that man is in.
44:55He can be influenced one way at breakfast and the other way at lunch.
44:58And just look at what he's done in the Middle East, another misadventure for the America and the Euro-Atlantic
45:04alliance in the Middle East yet again.
45:07You know, and I think, frankly, I think when it comes to the Iran issue, I really think Iran, I
45:12mean, wow.
45:13Was anyone really expecting this kind of show of resilience from Iran, these high-tech rockets, these cluster munitions?
45:20So I think in that case, Trump has bitten off more than he can chew.
45:23There is a global economy that is clearly shifting away from what is a unipolar hegemon.
45:28This pursuit of trade in national currencies, yes, it's an act of self-preservation.
45:33Yes, it's a move away from the dollar.
45:35It's not anti-Western.
45:37It's because those who own the dollar can be violent with it.
45:41Those who need the dollar can be sanctioned with it.
45:43And it's the easiest way to carry out regime change as well.
45:46No, sir, are you saying there'll be an alternative BRICS currency one?
45:49There's so much of talk of de-dollarization.
45:51Can that really be practical?
45:53I think when you have this many members of the same family living under the same roof as we have
45:59in the world today,
45:59it's going to be very difficult to keep everyone happy all the time.
46:03You've got to take into consideration the different sized economies of all the different members of BRICS and their partner
46:09states.
46:10Do I think there'll be a single currency in the near future?
46:13Absolutely not.
46:14Do I think that the pursuit, the continuation of trade in national currencies will continue and even accelerate?
46:19Yes, yes, I do.
46:21Very quickly, Casey Singh, and then I'll come to Aina.
46:23Casey, what's your view?
46:25Where do you stand?
46:26Should India see its future with BRICS or be part of pro-West groups like Quad?
46:32Rajdeep, neither.
46:33And I think that's what India is doing.
46:35We need both.
46:36And remember, we keep talking of the West.
46:38The West is also not united any longer.
46:41Even on Israel, you found France, Canada, and England going after the settlers in the occupied territories.
46:51And that is going to cause a problem with America.
46:53And you have a trade war between Canada and the U.S.
46:57So even the NATO is split.
47:01Even the G20 is split.
47:03They've not invited South Africa to the meeting in Florida of the G20 foreign ministers.
47:09And President Trump is not going to invite the president of South Africa.
47:12So there are a large number of divisions.
47:15And India has already started correcting a wrong tilt it had in favor of Israel, U.S. over Iran.
47:23And that's why at the SCO, we signed on to the declaration condemning the attack on Iran, number one.
47:31And number two, also agreeing you cannot have peace in West Asia until the Palestinian issue is solved.
47:36So India is correcting it.
47:38That's what India has always been as a non-aligned country.
47:41We are a bridge between these sides.
47:43And that is the strength of India.
47:45So you must remain both work with BRICS and work with SCO as well as work with the West.
47:51That is India's strength.
47:52I have five minutes left.
47:54I want to give each of you a closing comment.
47:55And I want to raise the final question.
47:57Is BRICS much ado about very little or a genuine remaking of the world order?
48:02Aina, why don't you start?
48:03Do you believe, are we seeing a genuine remake of the world order in the way BRICS has been conceptualized?
48:09But the sheer inequalities between the various partners, their stage of development, their per capita income, their manufacturing capacity, mean
48:17that there will be, this is a relationship of unequals in a manner that perhaps certain Western groupings are not?
48:24Yes, I would agree that BRICS is a breakthrough.
48:29It's an opportunity, though, and it is going to depend on the countries to go in.
48:33But please do not equate, you know, the Quad with BRICS.
48:38They're completely different.
48:40The Quad is basically a defensive or offensive alliance for military purposes.
48:47And that is not what the BRICS are.
48:50It's all about economics.
48:52So I think it's important to keep that distinction.
48:55So compare G20 and BRICS.
48:55Because I've heard that so many times.
48:56So compare G20 and BRICS.
48:58Should India be, should countries like India, in your view, look at G20 as their future or should they look
49:03at BRICS as their future?
49:05Well, the G20 can't agree, as we saw from the economic minister's meeting in the United States.
49:11It is basically defunct.
49:13Both the G7 and G20 have outlived their usefulness.
49:18They're not able to respond.
49:19They weren't able to respond to COVID.
49:22They're not able to respond to the situation now.
49:24They cannot reach consensus.
49:25That was their only strength.
49:27So right now it is groups like BRICS, not only BRICS, but other ones.
49:32You have, you know, Latin American countries.
49:35You have the Middle East, the GCC, Arab League, also African Union.
49:41These are entities that have been downplayed in the past, and they need to take the rightful role as part
49:47of a multipolar world, multilateral world, not be pushed to the side.
49:53Michael, is it a remaking of the world order?
49:56Are we genuinely seeing the emergence of a multipolar world order, a multi-aligned world order?
50:01Well, we're definitely seeing a rapidly changing world order, but I don't think that it's BRICS that's engineering that change.
50:07I think that BRICS can best be seen as a new contributor to a rapidly changing world order.
50:16You know, you have the BRICS Bank, which is significant, and you could compare that to something like the AIIB,
50:21right, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
50:22It's an example of a new global financial institution not driven by or a part of the West, and I
50:28think that BRICS can be akin to that by coming out with its own contributions, whether it's the BRICS Bank
50:34or something else.
50:34Go back to what I said before.
50:35The timing is right because we're seeing rising levels of discontent about the Western-led global order, and that's particularly
50:42coming from the global south.
50:43Again, BRICS really represents the global south, and, you know, from India's perspective, this is a good thing because, you
50:50know, Delhi has a key foreign policy goal, trying to position itself as a leader of the global south.
50:54So to the extent to which it continues to play this key role within BRICS, which it will as one
50:58of the original members, I think India's foreign policy objectives can be advanced as well, just by continuing to be
51:06a big part of this entity.
51:09Rory, what's your view? Are we seeing the remaking of the world order from your vantage point in Moscow?
51:15I would certainly say yes. I've heard people say that when it comes to the new multipolar world order, that
51:20there's a new sheriff in town.
51:22I don't think it's quite that, but I think they're close enough. To me, there's a new police department in
51:27town.
51:27These are countries that want to be in charge of their own domestic affairs and their own international trade affairs
51:34as well.
51:34They want sovereignty. They don't want to be bullied around. They don't want people meddling in their elections.
51:39They want strength in numbers, perhaps a pack mentality, a herd mentality, but it is strength in numbers.
51:45And I think that's something we should keep in mind. I think BRICS, SCO, ASEAN, and all these other families,
51:52these geostrategic families that keep coagulating around the world,
51:55I think there's a very clear reason for this. And I think Trump should take a better look at himself
52:00and at U.S. foreign policy and realize the more they play silly games with the dollar,
52:06the more other countries are going to diversify and move away from what has been essentially the governing structure for
52:12what? Roughly essentially.
52:14Casey Singh, talking shop or something more substantial, particularly in this increasingly uncertain global world?
52:23I think we should be less ambitious this time because there are too many uncertainties.
52:28As I said, the Gulf War is still not over. You have the U.S. elections coming up.
52:32You have the Israeli elections coming up. So until we know what is the outcome of those, you can't start
52:40looking at a new order.
52:41But India can play a bridge. And that's why the joint declaration after the BRICS statement,
52:48after the BRICS summit, is very important. Iran would insist on a condemnation of attacks on them.
52:55Which UAE may not agree to. Which the UAE may not agree to.
52:59Which the Saudis may not agree to. Exactly. So if you can't issue a joint statement for whatever reason,
53:07then what are you really dealing with? So therefore, I think it's more bilaterals.
53:11We deal with the people. We prepare for what will happen after these elections are over for the post-Trump
53:19world.
53:19Till then, you have to just put up with this kind of uncertainty and use BRICS to reduce it or
53:25other groups to reduce it.
53:26And I think that, at best, can be the Indian aim.
53:29But you can't start major reform from these summits because the entrenched power is not going to move at this
53:37stage.
53:3830 seconds, Ashok. 30 seconds. Very quickly. Remaking of the World Order or not?
53:44Well, the remaking of the World Order is decidedly a work in progress.
53:49We live in an age where all large collectives, ASEAN, G20, G7, BRICS,
53:56are quite honestly struggling to agree on a very wide variety of issues internally.
54:02That is true. However, this is, as KC Singh pointed out, the age of bilateralism.
54:06And the fact that 21 countries of some consequence and deep inter-country relations
54:14are using the BRICS platform to meet and talk in Delhi, to my mind, is important.
54:21It is more important than what the letter of the joint statement says, quite honestly.
54:2640% of the world's GDP and certainly a very large landmass of the world has come together.
54:32The question is, in this age of global uncertainty, can they actually find some kind of a consensus,
54:40at least on certain core issues that are critical, in a way, to the world in the 21st century?
54:47And the only way you can do that in this world is to engage with each other.
54:52Talk to each other, not necessarily talk at each other.
54:56And maybe BRICS can at least provide that kind of forum to talk on issues of mutual convergence.
55:03We are clearly in an uncertain world, but in a world, therefore, that also holds out enormous opportunities.
55:10Can BRICS seize the moment or will it simply end up being a talking shop?
55:15We'll wait and see what happens.
55:17But for now, for joining us on that very, very interesting roundtable on BRICS,
55:22I thank all my guests from different parts of the world for making the time.
55:26Thank you so much.
55:30That's it on the show today.
55:33Thanks for watching.
55:34Our coverage this weekend continues on the BRICS Summit.
55:38Jai Hind, Namaskar.
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