00:00So, Angela, come on in. Tim and I have been talking about this a lot. What caught our attention was,
00:05you know, this Iranian foreign minister meeting up with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
00:10In a previous segment, our own Ellen Milligan, who covers national security here, in talking with a British official, she
00:17said, you know, what they are hearing is President Putin's hidden hand is behind a lot of this conflict. How
00:24do you see it?
00:26Well, certainly Russia has been backing Iran since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. It's been providing the Iranians
00:37with intelligence on American targets, among other things.
00:41It's been providing the Iranians with an updated version of the Shahhead drones, which the Iranians first provided the Russians
00:49to use in Ukraine. Russians have now modernized them. So they've been giving them weapons.
00:54And so they've certainly been backing them. And of course, Russia has been really benefiting from this war because of
01:01high oil prices and because the sanctions on Russian oil have been waived for one month by the United States
01:09and then just for a second month.
01:11So the Russian economy isn't doing that well, but they're certainly benefiting from this economically.
01:17On the other hand, Putin doesn't want to alienate President Trump. He still wants the president to force Ukraine to
01:26give up territory to Russia that Russia doesn't control.
01:29So for Putin, it's a balancing act. But he's really trying to show that Russia is still a player in
01:37the Middle East, having certainly lost out in Venezuela, of course, in Syria before all of this happened.
01:44So he's playing this, I would say, pretty well at the moment.
01:48So, Dr. Stenton, you think he's successfully showing the world that Russia is a player in the Middle East, at
01:54least a player in Iran right now?
01:56I think he is. I mean, Russia has certainly lost some of its clout in the Middle East because of
02:01events over the past couple of years.
02:03And certainly because the U.S. and Israel were able to do this without obviously informing Russia.
02:10So I think what Russia is trying to do also is to show, yes, we're still here.
02:14We may be, you know, bobbed down in Ukraine on the one hand, but we're still a player in the
02:19Middle East.
02:19So it's kind of and I think the other thing we have to remember is that Russia has also cultivated
02:24good ties with the Gulf states.
02:27It's got the OPEC plus with Saudi Arabia and other countries.
02:30And so it's a little bit difficult for Russia to the extent that these Gulf partners of Russia have now
02:36been attacked by Iran.
02:39And as we've seen, these Gulf partners are now signing agreements with Ukraine to give them the technology to improve
02:46their, you know, to improve their own drones.
02:48So what is the investing public, the U.S. public need to understand about this relationship between the between Iran
02:56and Russia in particularly in particular?
02:59Because I'm also wondering, how does Russia complicate any U.S. efforts towards a ceasefire?
03:05Well, I think they have to understand that this is still an important partnership for Russia.
03:10And we'll stay that way, Angela. We'll stay that way.
03:14I think it will stay that way because the Iranians are going to probably be more dependent on Russia, depending
03:20on how all of this works out at the end.
03:23So, yes, that's there to say. And as long as the Russians support the Iranians, they've also been able to
03:28push back against the U.S.
03:30Now we're in a ceasefire period. Straits of Hormuz are obviously closed.
03:34But that partnership is going to remain. Yes.
03:36Has this war been net-net good for Russia, apart from the higher oil prices, the sanctions easing, but also
03:45on its own war and its invasion of Ukraine?
03:48Attention has shifted from that part of the world and Eastern Europe to the Middle East right now.
03:54How does Putin view that internally?
03:57Yeah, I think that's also a bonus for Russia.
04:00The U.S. has turned its attention away from that conflict.
04:04So I said before that, you know, the Russians would like Trump to force Zelensky to give up territory.
04:10That I don't think is going to happen anytime soon.
04:12So from the Russian point of view, it's okay not to have the U.S. involved in negotiations at the
04:17moment because they can just continue to what they're trying to do is to take back more territory.
04:23They're not doing very well at the moment.
04:25Ukrainians are doing much better.
04:27But, yes, I think for them it's a bonus that that attention has turned away from that conflict.
04:33Angela, does Russia want the uranium, the enriched uranium?
04:38I think it does.
04:39So in 2015, they took the enriched uranium after the Obama administration had agreed on the JCPOA, that agreement with
04:47Iran that the Russians were also involved with.
04:50So the Russians would be quite happy to take that.
04:53But, of course, so far the Trump administration has said that it doesn't accept that.
04:58And I think President Trump has said he wants the U.S. to take it.
05:02Over the last few years when we've had a chance to talk to you, we've asked you how you think
05:05the war between Russia's invasion of Ukraine will end.
05:08I'm going to ask you now about the war between the U.S. and Iran and certainly Israel there as
05:15well.
05:15How does that war end?
05:17That's a much more difficult one because, you know, there has been regime change in Iran, but you have a
05:24regime that's, you know, even more radicalized.
05:27And Iran so far looks as if it's done pretty well out of this conflict, despite the assassinations and the
05:35loss of weapons and things like that, because it's now controlling the Straits of Hormuz.
05:40So I think in the end, there will have to be, well, there are negotiations, there'll have to be more
05:46negotiations.
05:48But I think it's unlikely that the Iranians are going to, you know, say that they will totally give up
05:56their nuclear weapons program.
05:58And in the end, you may have to come back to an agreement that's somewhat similar to the JCPOA, the
06:04agreement that the Trump administration pulled out in its first term.
06:07Maybe it'll have somewhat different terms, but just trying to restrict the pace at which Iran can develop a nuclear
06:15weapons system.
06:16And just let's not forget China's out there, too, who, of course, is allied with Iran and Russia, no doubt
06:23about it.
Comments