00:00I don't know how excited I am about this game here tonight, because it looks like three and a half,
00:09then down to three, then a little bit of three and a half, then back down to three.
00:13And it would seem to me, Tom, that if the the pros really liked New England, we wouldn't be having
00:22this back and forth between three and three and a half like it likely would have already been under three
00:27at some point.
00:29I'm just not I like New England from the value at three and a half.
00:33But this is a game where I'm going to be looking at less points, not more right off the bat.
00:3912th man, Seattle's defense like New England's deep.
00:43I think both offenses might regress a little bit.
00:46I don't know. 44 is a pretty key number in NFL totals.
00:50And what do we have? 44 and a half right now?
00:53Yeah, we are at a bunch of key numbers and floating around there.
00:57Like you said, threes.
00:57I am seeing, you know, threes that are juiced at minus 118, you know, three and a half.
01:02So, you know, that is if you're looking to lay the three or three and a half with Seattle.
01:07You know, sometimes this is like, are you going to bet the three and a half?
01:10Because that's a good number.
01:11You're not really betting on the patch.
01:12You're more so betting on the three and a half.
01:14You're looking at all these sorts of things.
01:15I have three bets that I brought today and they're all unders and it's not super exciting.
01:22It is the first game of the season.
01:24And regardless of it being the first game of the season, we have to count for the defense.
01:27We have to count for, you know, offenses, as you said, just naturally regressing, role changes, new roles.
01:32We have rookies, you know, so starting running back with Darian Price on the Seahawks.
01:36What role is he going to play?
01:37We have a wide receiver with A.J. Brown on the pats.
01:40He's great, but it's a new role.
01:42We have a lot to figure out for all of these teams.
01:44And it's going to start off with a lot of unders.
01:47It's great to have football back, like you said.
01:49It's exciting because there's so many different ways you can play NFL.
01:53You know, once we get here, you could play, you know, Pick'em Poole, Survivor, Fantasy, the derivatives of Fantasy.
01:58There's so many different ways to approach it.
02:00You can choose what you like to do.
02:01I like to dive into the prop market.
02:03We'll certainly be touching on all of that.
02:05But as you said, from the size and totals, it's looking like Seattle at three is fine.
02:11The pats at three and a half is fine.
02:13But it's really about the under tonight.
02:15Yeah, I am with you.
02:17And in fact, I'm seeing the first half under starting to drop, too.
02:21It was 22 and a half.
02:22Now I'm seeing 21 and a half.
02:25So even a 21 starting to pop up.
02:28And, you know, if you can get that hook at 21 and a half under three touchdowns, I don't hate
02:33that idea either.
02:35I mean, listen, Drake May and New England were, congratulations, 17-4 last season, you know, made it through four
02:45postseason games, right?
02:46But the problem with them last year at the end of the postseason, and I think it's going to carry
02:52over this year, Tom,
02:53is that that schedule was so absurdly easy that it made them appear to be much better offensively than they
03:01were.
03:01I mean, when you look at Drake May's numbers last year, based upon the quality of competition,
03:07and again, the last couple of teams they played were much better competition-wise,
03:13that Patriots offense was nowhere to be found.
03:15So I think that schedule made Drake May and the offense look a lot more efficient and a lot better
03:22than what they were.
03:23They are not going to have that fortunate scheduling situation this year.
03:28And right off the bat, you've got to go to a place where Seattle, over the last two decades,
03:34in the first couple of weeks of the season, the 12th man, live and well, that is not,
03:39they don't lose many of these games, especially early on.
03:43But I think there's going to be an adjustment to Drake May.
03:46I think too many people are, they just think,
03:50how does he improve on what he showed last year in his second year?
03:53Like, what's the ceiling then? Like, he's going to regress at some point.
03:59Right. Looking into Drake May, he is one of the targets, one of the props I have that we'll get
04:04into later.
04:05Drake May last year, he led the league in EPA per play.
04:10He led the league in CPOE and he was second in success rate.
04:14Those things are really, A, because he's good.
04:18I'm not going to say he's great yet.
04:19He's good, but it's also a product of the schedule, like you said.
04:22So it was him being good and elevated and also having this really soft schedule in front of him.
04:27If he finishes first, first, second in those categories, he probably wins MVP this year.
04:32That's just what it comes down to.
04:33And then we all have to just take a step back and say, we're wrong about Drake May.
04:36But I'm not going to bet on that.
04:38I'm going to bet on the fact that he was good last year, but he's also a product of the
04:42schedule.
04:42And now with natural regression that all quarterbacks and all players go through, combined with a very tough starting point
04:48for the season in Seattle with a great defense on the other side, we're going to see a really slow
04:53game.
04:53And we know that Travion Henderson has been ruled out for this game.
04:56I still think the Pats are going to lean into a run game because they just want to ease their
05:00way into the season as any team would want to do.
05:02They don't want Drake May dropping back 40 times tonight.
05:05That would be, if Drake May has to drop back 40 times tonight, Joe, it means Seattle is covering this
05:10going away.
