00:00Tomorrow we'll kick off the NFL season, a little rematch action there of the Seattle Seahawks
00:07champion, Seattle Seahawks, in fact, taking on the New England Patriots.
00:12And listen, Super Bowl hangovers are a real thing, Tom.
00:16They're not only real for those that win it, but certainly teams coming off them, not really
00:24great in week one.
00:25In fact, coming off a Super Bowl loss, we are seeing those teams 11 and 15 straight up
00:32and six and 20 against the spread to open up the next season.
00:37So New England, history tells us, don't expect great things.
00:42They're a dog year of what, three, maybe even three and a half.
00:45It looks like Seattle's been getting an awful lot of money here today.
00:49But history tells us Super Bowl hangover could very well be in play here for the Patriots.
00:58You know, frankly, the more and more I look at it, you know, I'm looking at this first
01:03half total of 22 and a half, and that's what has my eye to start.
01:08And, you know, I'm wondering, are we going to see any movement as we get closer to game
01:12time, are we going to see more and more public money come in and push the number just a little
01:17bit higher?
01:18You know, do we get a point change here or there to get it, you know, maybe 45 and a
01:22half instead of 44 and a half?
01:23And just looking to the under.
01:26And frankly, I don't think this should surprise anyone to see the first game of the season,
01:30especially with the Super Bowl hangover, to see it start a little bit slow.
01:3422 and a half means we need three touchdowns plus a field goal, really.
01:38Or four touchdowns, which would just be an insane amount for the first game of the season.
01:43So I always like to lean on a lot of unders, first half unders, then really, you know, as
01:49week two rolls around, it's a little bit of a different story.
01:51But that first half unders is catching my eye right now.
01:55Yeah, I don't mind that either.
01:57And listen, we all know Seattle's been very good at home with the 12th man for a long time,
02:03Tom.
02:03That's nothing new, right?
02:04Uh, 33 and seven straight up at home in their first three games of the regular season,
02:10dating back to 2003.
02:13They don't lose very often in that building to start the season.
02:17That is a tough place to play.
02:20Uh, needless to say, don't forget the Seahawks were 13 and four against the number as a favorite
02:26last year.
02:27They covered by almost eight and a half points a game.
02:30Uh, Tom, in those spots, that was the best mark of any team in the NFL.
02:35Does that regress this year?
02:38Do you think, are we looking for a few less of those covering opportunities?
02:42Cause you know, they're going to be public darlings in a lot of spots here this year.
02:47Oh yeah.
02:48Yeah.
02:49Expecting regression is, is something I'm always accounting for positive and negative
02:53regression of teams are always, are always going to regress back to the mean over a large
02:57enough sample size.
02:58Could they run hot for the beginning portion of the season?
03:02Sure.
03:02But as the season goes on, they're still going to be booked as favorites every single time
03:06that they're home, even when they're playing, when they're playing the Rams, that game probably
03:11feels like a pick them one and a half, but they'll still be the favorites to some capacity
03:15barring and significant injuries.
03:16But I would look to fade the Seahawks, especially with big numbers more often than not.
