- 7 weeks ago
It was a weekend to remember for Case Clay and the team at Wathan Racing. Among a host of other winners, stable star Leading Change took home the GI Travers Stakes. Clay joined this week's TDN Writers' Room to discuss future plans for the Brad Cox trainee.
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00:00:17Welcome to another edition of the TDN Writer's Room podcast presented by Keeneland, a post
00:00:23Travers edition, so we should have plenty to talk about.
00:00:27My name is Bill Finley, and I'm a correspondent in the Thoroughbred Daily News.
00:00:32Hello, correspondent Bill Finley.
00:00:33I'm Randy Moss with NBC Sports and the Bayer Speed Figure team.
00:00:40Zoe Cabman here, back from Saratoga, a three-day drive nonetheless, with, look at this.
00:00:47He's replacing Burt Reynolds on the piano, so we have a nice picture of Doodle, who gets
00:00:56to stay forever.
00:00:57He sat in the front seat and drove back with me.
00:01:01So that was the drive, and here we are.
00:01:05Back home.
00:01:05Oh, we missed Doodle.
00:01:07Randy, how's Lucy doing?
00:01:08Lucy's doing well.
00:01:10She's right there.
00:01:11There she is.
00:01:12That's her spot.
00:01:13She's out.
00:01:14And I'm not going to shift the camera, but our beloved Penny at age 16 is hanging in there
00:01:20very well.
00:01:21Wait, wait, wait.
00:01:21Look where I stopped on my way back.
00:01:23I had a brief tour.
00:01:25I can't read the hat.
00:01:27It says Pony Express Station in Gothenburg, Nebraska.
00:01:31The original Pony Express Station.
00:01:34I stopped there on my way back.
00:01:36It's a really cool little museum.
00:01:38It's interesting.
00:01:38If you ever happen to be crazy enough to drive across the country and are driving through
00:01:43Nebraska, bored out of your mind, just pop in there.
00:01:47I'm sorry.
00:01:48No knock on the state of Nebraska, but Zoe, I have zero interest in going there.
00:01:55Anyways.
00:01:55Okay.
00:01:56Horse racing.
00:01:57The Travers.
00:01:58As expected, a very good race, a very competitive race.
00:02:02It was loaded on paper coming in and leading change is your winner.
00:02:08And to do so in his third lifetime start, I think most everyone agrees it was quite an
00:02:14accomplishment.
00:02:15And one of the questions now is what is his future plans is Brad Cox has said he probably
00:02:22won't run in the 2027 Breeders' Cup.
00:02:25We'll find out more in our Gainsway Guest of the Week segment when we talk to Wathland
00:02:30Racing's U.S. Racing Manager, Case Clay, will fill us in on the future plans for leading
00:02:36change.
00:02:37But Randy, I'll start off with you.
00:02:39A remarkable accomplishment, I think.
00:02:42And I think this is a horse that we're going to be hearing a lot more from down the road.
00:02:47Yeah.
00:02:48This was a good year, I think, for Wathnan and Case Clay and Brad Cox to take a shot with
00:02:54a horse that only had two lifetime starts going in.
00:02:57I mean, obviously, it was a good year for it since he won.
00:03:00But, you know, this isn't historically the strongest group of three-year-olds on paper.
00:03:06Golden Tempo is admirably consistent, and he did it again in the Traverse.
00:03:11Maybe he got a little bit of traffic, but otherwise had a decent trip.
00:03:14Didn't have that much pace to run at, as he also had to, you know, overcome to win the
00:03:19Belmont Stakes.
00:03:20But, look, leading change was the best horse, I thought.
00:03:23He did get a really good trip, saving ground.
00:03:26He ran down a game Napoleon solo.
00:03:30I mean, the real disappointment to me was Renegade, who just was a – I thought he was
00:03:36a complete no-show.
00:03:37He did break in the air.
00:03:39He did get pinched a little bit.
00:03:40He was well back.
00:03:41But he was alongside Golden Tempo, almost all the way around the track.
00:03:45And then Golden Tempo just left him behind in the last quarter of a mile, and Renegade
00:03:49had no spark whatsoever to finish with.
00:03:52And I thought that was pretty disappointing.
00:03:55But a good effort.
00:03:56A good effort by the top two finishers and Golden Tempo.
00:04:00Yeah, Renegade needs seven weeks, right, Bill?
00:04:03Eight weeks, nine weeks, ten weeks.
00:04:05He needs a little longer between starts.
00:04:08And he did – he ran a little fresh, a little not fresh in there, should we say, because
00:04:14he did follow Golden Tempo.
00:04:16Have any of you guys seen the drone shot for the whole race?
00:04:19I have not, no.
00:04:20Oh, my gosh.
00:04:21It's fantastic.
00:04:23I watched it twice this morning, and you can see Golden Tempo at the back of the pack.
00:04:29Tyler Gafleone followed Jose the whole way like a snake.
00:04:34He just latched onto him.
00:04:36Golden Tempo had no trouble whatsoever.
00:04:38He never got out in the outside.
00:04:40He never got out clear.
00:04:42But watching the ride that Jose gave him, never got checked, never got stopped.
00:04:47That was a Hall of Fame ride by Jose.
00:04:49Went the inside, the whole way.
00:04:51There was no point that he got stopped.
00:04:54The hole opened.
00:04:55He just didn't have enough horse just to punch right at the end, running into that slow pace.
00:05:00He's such a good horse and shows up every time.
00:05:02So I take nothing away from him in there.
00:05:06Leading change is going to get better.
00:05:08The son of Gunrunner, he's just going to get better and better.
00:05:12He was an $800,000 purchase at Keeneland September.
00:05:15Good job to Wathman Racing for securing him.
00:05:17I had to look back in my notes today to see what I wrote about him,
00:05:21because obviously I can't remember every horse.
00:05:24And I remember Duncan Taylor telling me he was the best one they had in his consignment.
00:05:30He said, Zoe, I went back to look at him again.
00:05:32This is the best one.
00:05:33He's a half to she, there's a devil.
00:05:35So, you know, she won the Kentucky Oaks.
00:05:37That shouldn't be a problem for distance.
00:05:39And I just remember Duncan, who was such a good judge of a horse,
00:05:44telling me this is the best one we've got.
00:05:45And I guess he was right.
00:05:47We should have listened.
00:05:48As far as Napoleon Solo is concerned, he ran a blinder, an absolute blinder.
00:05:53Just, you know, I know that Chad Summers is saying he wants the trip he had in the Preakness.
00:05:59Well, you can't always get that trip you want.
00:06:01He ran his race as far as I'm concerned.
00:06:04It was a good race.
00:06:05You've got two riders with different fractions.
00:06:07Manny Franco.
00:06:08He got hit with a, what is it, a 10% fine.
00:06:11So that'll cost him about $6,800.
00:06:14And then Johnny V.
00:06:15One day suspension, yeah.
00:06:16One day suspension.
00:06:16Johnny V as well.
00:06:18I think he hit his horse eight times and Manny hit his horse seven.
00:06:23So they both got a little holiday.
00:06:24One disappointment to come out of there would be Seastrike,
00:06:27who probably is never going to run a mile and a distance again.
00:06:31He was in a perfect spot under Flavian Pratt.
00:06:34He just flattened out at the head of the lane.
00:06:36I think he's a good horse and we'll probably see him in perhaps one-turn races moving forward for Chad
00:06:42Brown.
00:06:43I just want to piggyback off a couple things that Zoe said.
00:06:47First of all, I want to give credit to Tyler Gafleone, who rode Renegade.
00:06:51And people in racing just love to make excuses.
00:06:55And he had a perfect excuse on Renegade.
00:06:57Oh, we had this terrible start.
00:06:59He said afterwards, you know what?
00:07:01Start didn't affect him.
00:07:02He just didn't run his race.
00:07:04You rarely get that kind of honesty.
00:07:07Out of either jockeys or trainers.
00:07:10And Zoe, another point you made, I think, was a very good point.
00:07:13It hasn't been a controversy or anything like that.
00:07:18But the Twitter people and whatnot, he's seen a lot of criticism of Jose Ortiz's ride.
00:07:24And I would agree with you 100%.
00:07:25He rode a perfectly good race.
00:07:28And there's nothing that he did that compromised Golden Tempo's chances.
00:07:33So I just wanted to add my two cents to that and say I'm in agreement with you.
00:07:39Now, the best three-year-old, I think we will all agree, on the day was not leading change.
00:07:46It was Englishman, the winner of the Alan Jarkins.
00:07:50This is a fantastic racehorse.
00:07:53And we're going to learn a little bit later when we do our Windstar promo that he was the fastest
00:07:59horse of the week with a 117 mire.
00:08:03And he just ran off the screen once again in the Alan Jarkins.
00:08:09I have to give him some credit to Randy Moss, who predicted last week that he would win the Breeders'
00:08:15Cup Sprint.
00:08:16And, Randy, I kind of stuck up for my friend Bookum Dano, who did not run in the forego.
00:08:21And you know what?
00:08:22As much as I love Dano, if he gets healthy, I don't think he's going to touch Englishman.
00:08:27My goodness, this horse is good, Zoe.
00:08:29Oh, is he?
00:08:31He breaks out the gate so fast and is immediately five in front.
00:08:37And, you know, if you let him go 23 flat, what was it all I was thinking?
00:08:43Like, my God.
00:08:45You know, I should have played the drinking game, but I couldn't because I was driving back.
00:08:50So every time an analyst said, oh, Jose is in a slump.
00:08:56He's in a slump.
00:08:57He's 0 for 20.
00:08:58He's 0 for 22.
00:08:59He's 0 for 20.
00:09:00He can't win a race.
00:09:01He's not won a race in a week.
00:09:02If I had a drunk a drink every time somebody said that, I'd have just been completely obliterated till next
00:09:09Monday.
00:09:10It's a cyclical game.
00:09:12It had been a week.
00:09:12Big deal.
00:09:13So perfect trip, perfect ride.
00:09:15He gets his win, shuts everyone up.
00:09:17What a good horse he is.
00:09:19Gosh, he's good.
00:09:21Englishman's just a freak.
00:09:22He's the sprinting equivalent to flight line.
00:09:25At least that's what he looks like to me.
00:09:27He's just unreal.
00:09:29And to go that slow early, to be allowed to go 23.01 for the quarter and still open up,
00:09:36and 45.50 for the half mile, which by grade one standards is not a fast pace.
00:09:44And yet to finish 31 hundredths of a second off the track record after that pace.
00:09:50I mean, oh, unreal.
00:09:54And to show you how good he is, they're already running from him.
00:09:57I mean, Bob Baffert, of course, had that really good horse that ran against him.
00:10:02Zoe.
00:10:03Crude Velocity.
00:10:04Yeah, Crude Velocity.
00:10:05And after he ran against him last time, he said, I don't want any part of that horse again.
00:10:09And the second place finisher in the Alan Jerkins, a really good Judd Mott into Mischief Cult named Deep Flame,
00:10:16who was coming off back-to-back wins at Churchill by seven and five and three quarters lengths.
00:10:22All Deep Flame did was run a buyer speed figure of 110 and finishing second behind Englishman.
00:10:29And Brad Cox is not going to the Breeders' Cup sprint.
00:10:32He said, I don't want, I do not want to run against that horse again.
00:10:36I don't want to do that to my horse and wreck his confidence because he's such a talented horse going
00:10:42forward.
00:10:43That's how good Englishman is right now.
00:10:45I want to throw something out to you guys.
00:10:48Let's take a hypothetically, if Englishman wins the Breeders' Cup sprint and a three-year-old does not win the
00:10:57Breeders' Cup classic, which I don't think is going to happen.
00:11:00I don't think the three-year-olds are fast enough to beat the Sovereignty's Knight Bridge and Forever Youngs of
00:11:05the world.
00:11:06Is Englishman the three-year-old champion?
00:11:08Normally, we don't vote for sprinters, Randy, for that title.
00:11:14But my goodness, his resume, again, it's all hypothetical.
00:11:17We'll see what happens.
00:11:18I think I'd have to vote for him.
00:11:21That's an interesting thought.
00:11:22Yeah, I hadn't thought about it that way.
00:11:25You know, it's typically pretty difficult not to give three-year-old of the year to a horse that wins
00:11:30the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes in the same year and ran a decent third in the Travers.
00:11:35But I suppose if Golden Tempo goes on to the Breeders' Cup classic and runs poorly, then an Englishman does
00:11:42his thing again in the Breeders' Cup sprint, you can make a case for him.
00:11:46I don't think it should be distance-specific.
00:11:49No.
00:11:49A Maxfield exactor, right?
00:11:51Who would have thought Maxfield would be getting a champion sprinter, right?
00:11:55Good point.
00:11:55I mean, he can do it all.
00:11:59Well, the human side of it, Brad Cox obviously had a great day because he won the Travers, but Chad
00:12:08Brown, oh, my goodness, did he have a good afternoon, won three stakes races, the Personal Ensign, with Fully Subscribed.
00:12:16And by the way, she was so impressive, I think nitrogen might just have her hands full down the line.
00:12:24He won the Lake Placid with Naomi, and he won the Ballerina with Ways and Means.
00:12:30So, you know, we're used to, Randy, these exploits from Chad Brown.
00:12:36Boy, did he have a good day, except for the Travers.
00:12:40He can't do anything in this race.
00:12:42It's remarkable.
00:12:43He ran the two horses.
00:12:45Neither one of them ran Merging Market or Sea Strike, really ran very well.
00:12:49His record now in the Travers is 20 starts, zero wins, zero seconds, and three-thirds.
00:12:55So, kind of a mixed bag, Randy, for Chad Brown.
00:12:59Great performance overall, but not a great performance in the Travers.
00:13:03I mean, I'm sure he'll win the Travers at some point.
00:13:05I don't think it's anything he's doing or he's not doing.
00:13:07I think Zoe hit the nail on the head.
00:13:09Sea Strike probably doesn't want to go a mile and a quarter.
00:13:11I mean, he just emptied out the last eighth of a mile.
00:13:14And Emerging Market's not good enough, really, to win a race like the Travers, although he improved.
00:13:19He ran probably the race of his life to finish where he finished.
00:13:24But, my God, the Fully Subscribed in Ways and Means just ran off the TV screen.
00:13:28And to think that Fully Subscribed, who dead-heated for second, 12 and three-quarters lengths behind nitrogen, now wins
00:13:37a race like the Person Linson by almost 10 lengths,
00:13:39that just shows you the kind of strides that she's made since that nitrogen race.
00:13:45And Chad has now got to decide whether to run her in the Beldame at Belmont Park or wait a
00:13:51week and get a race into her at Keeneland, the side of the Breeders' Cup in the Spinster.
00:13:56And what's interesting to me, Zoe, about Ways and Means, I mean, she runs like she always runs in New
00:14:01York.
00:14:02She's seven for eight lifetime in New York.
00:14:05The only race she lost was the spin away as a two-year-old when she got in trouble, serious
00:14:11trouble, as the two-to-five favorite and got beat a half length.
00:14:14Seven for eight in New York, 0 for five everywhere else.
00:14:18And the Breeders' Cup is everywhere else.
00:14:21Yeah, she's six for seven at Saratoga.
00:14:24And she came out of that brutal trip with an ankle chip or something.
00:14:30So she was sidelined after that anyway.
00:14:33She's just terrific.
00:14:34She puts it out in the morning.
00:14:35She puts it out in the afternoon.
00:14:38I have a feeling that she'll like Keeneland.
00:14:40I don't believe that she's going to be track dependent in Kentucky.
00:14:45I think she's really going to like Keeneland.
00:14:47And as far as fully subscribed, a win in your end for the disc staff, right?
00:14:52I think, I mean, what are you going to do?
00:14:53Are you going to run in the Baldem?
00:14:54And what if she runs just okay in the spinster?
00:14:57You're not going to run in the Breeders' Cup because she didn't like the track?
00:15:02I don't see anyone doing that.
00:15:04Chad is 0 for 11, by the way, in the disc staff as well.
00:15:07So he's got some races he really, really wants to win.
00:15:12He's got some fabulous turfers, fillies in his barn right now with wicked turns of foot.
00:15:18So he's going to depend on those.
00:15:21She'll probably run on as a horse next year.
00:15:24Ways and Means is going to be retired, apparently, after the Breeders' Cup and put her in the November sale.
00:15:29Yeah, nine of the stars.
00:15:31Seth Klarman's going to take some money off the table.
00:15:33I can't blame him.
00:15:35Seth Klarman, the part owner of the surging Boston Red Sox.
00:15:39I've got to get my Red Sox reference in there.
00:15:41Okay, we're going to take a break and we're going to find out what's going on at Keeneland.
00:15:45Find out about who is the fastest horse of the week.
00:15:48When we come back, you're going to hear from Case Clay, the U.S. Racing Manager of the Wathman Stable,
00:15:54the owners of Leading Change, the winner of Travers.
00:15:56Stay with us.
00:15:58I do want to remind you that each and every week, the TDN Writer's Room is brought to you by
00:16:02Keeneland.
00:16:02And what a Travers Day Keeneland September graduates had on Saturday, taking three Grade 1s at Saratoga and another one,
00:16:11if that wasn't enough, at Kentucky Downs.
00:16:14We'll start with the Travers winner, Leading Change, an $800,000 September purchase by our upcoming guest, Mr. Case Clay,
00:16:21on behalf of Wathman Racing.
00:16:23Then we go to the Alan Jerkins winner, Englishman.
00:16:26He was a mere $400,000 September buy.
00:16:30Fully subscribed, the personal Ensign winner was a $35,000 September yearling.
00:16:37Can you believe that?
00:16:38Where was I?
00:16:39And finally, In Our Time was a $325,000 September pick-me-up.
00:16:45And by the way, Forgo winner him was the September R&A.
00:16:49You could have went back and got him for a mere $140,000.
00:16:52This year's Keeneland September sale starts on September the 14th.
00:16:56Make plans to attend.
00:16:58Learn more at www.keeneland.com.
00:17:02We do this so your granddaughter can work on a farm someday.
00:17:07So the stands will still be packed in 50 years.
00:17:12That's why we come to work every day.
00:17:14Obsess over every single detail.
00:17:19Because the story of racing is written one moment at a time.
00:17:24And the future of our industry deserves nothing less.
00:17:29Keeneland.
00:17:30Every moment matters.
00:17:32The fastest horse of the week brought to you as always by the fast sires at Windstar Farm.
00:17:37The Keeneland September sale coming up in just a couple of weeks.
00:17:41Windstar has now sold a grade one winner from every Keeneland September book,
00:17:45book one through five, including Leading Change, the Travers winner,
00:17:50who was a book one purchase.
00:17:52And winning the Travers, Leading Change become the newest grade one winner bred by Windstar.
00:17:56That makes 92 graded winners now, courtesy of Windstar Farm.
00:18:02And 31 grade one state's winners.
00:18:05Windstar has now been among the top five North American breeders for the past 15 years.
00:18:09At Keeneland September, Windstar has 61 yearlings that they bred and raised that are cataloged in the sale.
00:18:17So find your next star, get it, Windstar, at Keeneland September.
00:18:23The fastest horse of the week we've already discussed.
00:18:25The fastest Englishman, the winner of the Allen Jerkins in typically smashing fashion with his buyer speed figure of 117
00:18:34to follow his previous buyer speed figure of 115 that he earned at Churchill Downs.
00:18:41Englishman has now recorded two of the three fastest buyer speed figures of the year,
00:18:46topped only by Knightsbridge and his 122 buyer.
00:18:54Welcome in now our Gainsway Guest of the Week.
00:18:57It's Case Clay.
00:18:58He's the U.S. Racing Manager for Wathen and Racing, which is just sizzling right now in the U.S.
00:19:04and of course is the owner of the Travers Stakes winner, Leading Change.
00:19:08Case, thanks for joining us and congratulations on Wathen's success here this year,
00:19:14not only in the U.S., but over in Europe.
00:19:17Well, thank you very much and thank you for having me.
00:19:21Okay, so let's take a look at the situation you guys faced in the Travers.
00:19:26You had a horse in Leading Change, the winner, who had only raced twice
00:19:29and a lot of people thought that maybe running a horse off just two lifetime starts in the Travers
00:19:35was asking too much of him.
00:19:36And you also had Commandment, as a grade one winner, had raced many more times.
00:19:41So, presumably, you had the choice of putting Commandment in there, maybe going a little bit slower with Leading Change.
00:19:49I would imagine the fact that you put Leading Change in the Travers and are going in the Pennsylvania Derby
00:19:54with Commandment
00:19:55is an indication of the incredible confidence the Wathen team and trainer Brad Cox had in this horse.
00:20:02Yeah, that's right.
00:20:04And it started really with the confidence that Brad had in the horse in Leading Change after the Indiana Derby.
00:20:18I was standing pretty near him when he was being interviewed after Leading Change won the Indiana Derby.
00:20:25And the person interviewing asked, are you thinking maybe Pennsylvania Derby?
00:20:29And he said, or the Travers, which made me turn my head a little bit, thinking, okay, that's a fun
00:20:35thing to think about.
00:20:39So, yeah, it was led by, honestly, if it weren't for Brad and his confidence in Leading Change,
00:20:48he might not have even been in the Travers.
00:20:50You know, it was an unconventional idea with a lot of confidence.
00:20:54And he said, quite rightly, if he wins the race, he's going to have to win on talent and not
00:21:01seasoning.
00:21:02And fortunately, that's what he did.
00:21:05So, after the race case, Brad was asked about the Breeders' Cup, and he said, well, maybe the 2027 Breeders'
00:21:13Cup.
00:21:13What's the plan looking ahead now for Leading Change?
00:21:17Yeah, I mean, I know it's a boring answer, but not quite sure yet.
00:21:22I would say we would be leaning away from the Classic this year without anything set in stone.
00:21:28I mean, Brad and I have texted a couple times yesterday and Sunday, but we haven't powwowed on it.
00:21:36But I would say we would be, things could change, or maybe he comes out of the race and the
00:21:42dust settles and he's just knocking down the door.
00:21:46But really looking at his four-year-old year and all the important races as a four-year-old that
00:21:53these older Colts can have.
00:21:56And, you know, perhaps not butting heads with these really, really nice four-year-olds this year and just kind
00:22:03of mapping it out.
00:22:05But I'd say we'd be leaning away from the Classic, but that could change.
00:22:08Maybe we get all excited in a couple weeks and go for it.
00:22:12And I'm curious about something else.
00:22:15With all the stuff going on in the Middle East right now, it's not like they have nothing to think
00:22:20about in Qatar.
00:22:21Does the Royal Family actually keep up with stuff like the Traverse Stakes?
00:22:28Yes.
00:22:28In these big races, yes.
00:22:32You know, we had a runner at 11.30 Saturday night at Remington Park, and they weren't watching that.
00:22:40But, yes, in these big races, they are watching, which is a lot of fun.
00:22:47That's cool.
00:22:47All right, Case, you're a pretty level-headed guy, but that was a hell of a Saturday you had.
00:22:52England, Germany, France, America, grade ones all over the place.
00:22:58I know you weren't directly involved with the horses in Europe, but how was it for you just being part
00:23:04of this team that just seems to be making such huge strides in horse racing?
00:23:09Tell me about your Saturday.
00:23:11Well, that actually – so that was actually Sunday.
00:23:14Oh, okay.
00:23:15The three – you were driving from Saratoga to California.
00:23:19Yes, I was.
00:23:19I get it.
00:23:20But – so I was flying home.
00:23:22I was on the 6 a.m. flight from Albany to Detroit and Lexington when all that was going on.
00:23:28So I was watching Holgen in Germany, win the Group 3 in Germany, and then Diego winning in France, and
00:23:39then Light of Dawn winning in England.
00:23:40So it was a very fun Sunday of WhatsAppping with Ollie and Richard Brown.
00:23:46It made for a lot of really fun banter and just a, wow, what's going on this weekend kind of
00:23:52scenario.
00:23:53Were you feeling fabulous on Sunday morning after celebrating on Saturday?
00:23:58We had a nice dinner with a little bit of red – you know, a little bit of red.
00:24:04But anyway, it was a civilized celebratory dinner and then early to bed, early up in the morning.
00:24:13Case, you obviously have a long background in horse racing as you're the son of Robert Clay, who is one
00:24:21of the great breeders and farm owners in the history of the sport.
00:24:26And then you take on this role with Wathnen, and I'm going to pat you on the back because you
00:24:32deserve it.
00:24:33But what this stable has accomplished is really remarkable, including the fact that in the 2024 yearling sales, you bought
00:24:4214 horses, and you have two grade one winners out of it.
00:24:47This year, you've had some really nice two-year-olds, a couple TDN by Haggard – presented by Haggard Rising
00:24:53Stars.
00:24:55What's going in?
00:24:56What's the recipe?
00:24:58What's the key to success?
00:24:59A lot of luck, a lot of luck, as everyone in this business knows.
00:25:06You know, and certainly pinching myself at the moment, knowing how difficult it can be and how many variables there
00:25:15are in horse racing.
00:25:18You know, there was a race on Thursday that was in for some clients, and, you know, a two-year
00:25:27-old flipped in the paddock and is okay, but had to scratch right away.
00:25:32So there's so many variables that go into it.
00:25:35But I guess to answer your question is, number one, is a lot of luck.
00:25:41I mean, luck is so much in this game.
00:25:43Good clients, good relationships, good people to work with.
00:25:47I think that's it.
00:25:48You just work hard and do your best with – surround yourself with the right people and hope for the
00:25:53best.
00:25:54So, Case, as best we can here on the TDN Riders Room, we try to humanize our guests, right?
00:26:01So I think people would be interested to know that don't know you and maybe have never come across you
00:26:07before, your background pre-horse racing.
00:26:11I guess maybe horse racing has always been there for you with your family, but that you were a stand
00:26:15-up comedian and you wanted to be – your first choice might have been to be on Saturday Night Live
00:26:20if that had ever worked out.
00:26:23So tell us a little bit about that and also your comedic style on the scale of, like, Stephen Wright
00:26:29to Robin Williams.
00:26:31Where did that fall in line?
00:26:34Oh, wow.
00:26:35Well, so I'll answer the second one first.
00:26:37I don't think I'm on any of those guys' scales.
00:26:41I think much, much less funny.
00:26:44But, yeah, I was fortunate enough when I was a young man to spend some time with W.T. Young,
00:26:52and he told me some great advice.
00:26:56He said, take a big risk before you're 30 years old.
00:26:59And if it doesn't work, so what?
00:27:01You tried.
00:27:02You'll never kick yourself for not trying.
00:27:03And at that time, you know, I grew up at Three Chimneys Farm, also very fortunate to have done that.
00:27:11But at the time, I think I had my midlife crisis when I was 21 and just didn't know what
00:27:17I wanted to do.
00:27:19I thought whatever you were doing right out of college, you had to do for the rest of your life,
00:27:23and I just didn't know.
00:27:25But that all being said, my first job out of college was at Arlington Park, so I didn't get that
00:27:31far away from horse racing.
00:27:34But anyway, yeah, that was it.
00:27:36Gave myself a little bit of a five-year window, which was a fun time.
00:27:40We lived in Chicago and then moved back to Kentucky.
00:27:44So I had about a five-year window, and two of those were working at Arlington.
00:27:49And, yeah, so that was that.
00:27:52Now, gosh, I don't know comedic style.
00:27:56I'm not that funny.
00:27:58Well, what's it like to stand up?
00:27:59I would think it would be absolutely terrifying to walk up in front on a stage, and you're expected to
00:28:05be funny.
00:28:07I mean, how did you deal with that?
00:28:10So the key is fill the audience with your friends.
00:28:16And you're guaranteed lies.
00:28:17Were you more of an observational comic like Seinfeld or a deadpan guy like Stephen Wright or Mannix like Robin
00:28:26Williams?
00:28:26Yeah, more observational.
00:28:28Definitely not Robin Williams.
00:28:29And you just picked the two opposite specs of Robin Williams and Stephen Wright.
00:28:34I'd be somewhere observationally.
00:28:37I can most definitely see that.
00:28:39Has it helped you dealing with some people being a little bit more sharp-witted than someone who may be
00:28:45just a little bit slow?
00:28:46Well, I don't know about slow, but I think that humor, we have to have it in horse race.
00:28:56We just absolutely have to have humor in this business.
00:29:00And so especially with so much news that you get and et cetera, et cetera, you've got to have a
00:29:07little bit of humor and not take ourselves too seriously.
00:29:11Yeah, well, Case, there are a lot of slow-witted people in this business.
00:29:14You may be talking to three of them right now.
00:29:17Speak for yourself, Brandy.
00:29:19So, Case, staying on the comedy thread that we're going down, I understand that you met some people who went
00:29:30on to be hugely successful, including Seth Meyers and Jason Stakas, who's the, of course, Ted Lasso, which is, oh
00:29:39my gosh, one of the greatest TV shows ever.
00:29:42I'm a huge fan, but I understand you've maintained your relationship with them and tell us about them.
00:29:49And I mean, are they on your speed dial?
00:29:53Yeah, I mean, they're great friends.
00:29:55We've, we've, we've, we've, a lot of the, a lot of the friends from Chicago stayed in close, close touch
00:30:01with and very good friends.
00:30:03I can live vicariously through them and I do get, I don't know if we talked about this last time,
00:30:10Randy, but the, each year for the Derby, I will get a text from Seth asking, because NBC asks some
00:30:19of these talk show hosts at NBC to make their Derby picks.
00:30:22And every year he, he asks me, you know, who should I, who should I pick?
00:30:27And I always give him a selfish, a selfish, you know, this year it was commandment, you know, it had
00:30:31to be, it had to be, it had to be that.
00:30:34So, uh, it's, it's, it's a lot of fun, uh, keeping in touch with those guys.
00:30:38Well, since you're no longer.
00:30:40Go ahead.
00:30:41Sorry.
00:30:41I was, I was looking for an update on commandment.
00:30:44Is he having a little bit of time off?
00:30:46Yeah, he's having a little bit of time off.
00:30:47In fact, we're just, I was hoping that I'd get back the diagnostics this morning that I, you know, but
00:30:51still waiting on that.
00:30:53It's not a big deal.
00:30:55It's just, he, we were pointing to the Pennsylvania Derby, which isn't going to happen.
00:30:59I'd say he'd probably be off for the rest of the year.
00:31:03Um, but not, nothing too bad.
00:31:06And, but, but again, just waiting on those, on those diagnostics from, um, Dr. Sutter and then we'll, we'll make
00:31:12a plan.
00:31:13One other thing, just one other thing.
00:31:16I don't think you're quite giving yourself enough credit for your buying of yearlings because most people, you know, they'll
00:31:22go out and they'll buy 10, 20, some big groups are buying 40 yearlings.
00:31:26If they get one grade one winner or even a TDN rising star, they're patting themselves on the back.
00:31:32And it's like you had a grade one winner to buy that few horses, 10 and get two grade one
00:31:38winners and a couple of really good two year olds.
00:31:41So that's kudos to you and your team, because that's a lot of hard work sifting through all those horses.
00:31:46And it's not like you're spending, you know, $5 million on one horse.
00:31:51Like you're doing a great job.
00:31:53Well, thank you, Zoe.
00:31:54I really, I really appreciate that.
00:31:55And I know you, I see you out there pounding the pavement where we're, we're at the sales a lot
00:32:01together.
00:32:01And, and, you know, it just happens to be a, a, a, a year that we've, we've, you know, had
00:32:07some good fortune and, and, but I do appreciate that.
00:32:10See, Zoe, your questions were a lot more topical than what I was going to ask.
00:32:15Yeah.
00:32:15So since you're no longer telling jokes for a living case, what, what do you enjoy the most about what
00:32:21you're doing right now?
00:32:23Yeah.
00:32:24I, so my favorite thing is pick is trying to race plan and, and commiserate with the trainers and, and
00:32:32picking, picking races.
00:32:34So, um, I, I love that and, and just really kind of, for example, the, the commandment leading change, uh,
00:32:42Travers, PA Derby, we, we talked so much about that and it's just, I don't know, it's just so much
00:32:48fun to, to try and try and race plan.
00:32:52I, I do think that's one of Brad's, uh, one of his many strengths is, is race planning.
00:32:59And, and a lot of these bigger trainers also, um, got to give them credit as well, but I love
00:33:05that.
00:33:05I love just looking at the, at the racing calendar and trying to put horses in races where you think
00:33:12they can win.
00:33:13And then in like for Saturday shot, you know, try and put your confidence up against, um, really taking a
00:33:19big swing.
00:33:20So that's, that's my, that's my favorite part.
00:33:22And then I also love the September sale, uh, because it's such a challenge.
00:33:28But also there are opportunities there to, uh, have one slip through the cracks.
00:33:36And of course, you know, it's, it's a lot of money when you get back out on new circle road,
00:33:41you know, it's a lot of money, but that for example, a two night sale, it's a lot more difficult
00:33:48to find value than a 10 day sale.
00:33:52And I, and I love the, I love the, I love the, uh, opportunity that lies there.
00:33:58Case, I want to, uh, take you back to leading change and considering that he's only run three times.
00:34:05Have we seen the best?
00:34:06We couldn't have possibly seen the best of them yet.
00:34:10How good, how good can this horse go and how far can you take this run?
00:34:15Uh, we're excited about, uh, you know, about his prospects.
00:34:21I mean, he ran, uh, he ran very good numbers in his first two races and, and a slightly improved
00:34:27number, um, on, on the, uh, on the raggeds in, in this, in the Travers.
00:34:33And so, you know, you see improvement there.
00:34:35It looked like in his final couple of jumps, he was just kind of, you know, that gun runner was
00:34:43coming out in him that.
00:34:45So I think that the, the 10 furlongs question was answered and then his sire improved so much as he
00:34:53got older.
00:34:54Um, and, and he, he has a great mind.
00:34:57He, he's just in the paddock on Saturday at the Travers.
00:35:00He was just unfazed, just unfazed and he, he breaks well.
00:35:06So I don't know how good he could be, but we're really excited about his, his potential.
00:35:12You know, there are these visual puzzles that you see every now and then, and like you stare at them
00:35:17and you're supposed to, let's say you're supposed to see the cat.
00:35:20The cat's supposed to jump out to you.
00:35:22And Wayne Lucas always joked that when it came to looking at yearlings, he could see the cat, whereas a
00:35:28lot of other people wouldn't be able to pick out the cat.
00:35:32You, you obviously are pretty good at seeing the cat.
00:35:34Who, who have some of your mentors been in terms of looking at horses and being able to see little
00:35:41things?
00:35:42Yeah.
00:35:43I, so I think Mike Ryan, I, when I was 14, I walked around the sails with Mike Ryan and,
00:35:48and he was a big part of, uh, teaching me.
00:35:51And so the two things that he told me were, okay, you know, when you go out on a soccer
00:35:57field and you see 14 year old or 13 year olds, uh, playing soccer,
00:36:03you can pretty much see it's not that much different athleticism wise.
00:36:08And as you know, Mike, Brian watches horses walk a lot at the sails.
00:36:13And so that was one thing.
00:36:15And then the other thing he said, because, you know, it's when you just first start looking at yearlings, it's,
00:36:21you know, it's, it's a bit overwhelming.
00:36:25And especially when, when I was 14 thinking, what, what are we looking at here?
00:36:29And he said, you just have to keep, keep, keep looking, keep looking, keep looking.
00:36:34And that at some point in your life, you know, it's going to be, become a bit more clear.
00:36:40Now saying all that, it is a numbers game.
00:36:42I mean, you know, you, you, um, you, you've got a, some are going to be slow and I've certainly
00:36:50bought horses that are slow and some are going to get hurt.
00:36:53And, and so it is, it is a numbers game, but I think Mike Ryan was, was a big part.
00:36:57He was one of my, my first mentors of, of looking at horses.
00:37:01That's gotta be so challenging looking at two horses walk and saying, okay, he's got an athletic walk and he
00:37:08doesn't have an athletic walk.
00:37:09To me, they're just horses walking.
00:37:12Well, I mean, you know, there, there are some that have, what did Wayne used to say?
00:37:17Wayne Lucas used to say, you want to see a horse.
00:37:20That's like a country boy walking home from school.
00:37:23Really?
00:37:23And, you know, bit of a, bit of a strut, you know, kind of, kind of thing.
00:37:27And it's, it's so it's, it's objective.
00:37:30And then there are also, you know, beautiful, awesome horses that you fall in love with and you go in
00:37:36the ring and you get out bid and you, you know, your heart is broken.
00:37:41But you just have to, there's so many bumps like that.
00:37:43You just got to keep, you just turn the page and go to the next one that you like.
00:37:46And, and hopefully, hopefully it'll, it'll come your way with one or two of these horses.
00:37:52I know you don't want to see one limping.
00:37:53That's pretty much what I know.
00:37:55No, no, you're right.
00:37:58Well, Case, congratulations on the Travers win and congratulations on a great year for the stable and all the success
00:38:05that it is, Wathen has had and the role you've played, obviously, in making this stable a powerhouse in the
00:38:15U.S.
00:38:15So thank you so much for joining us on the TD and Writers Room Podcast, being our Gainesway Guest of
00:38:20the Week.
00:38:20And we wish you continued success.
00:38:23And I kind of hope we see leading change in the Breeders' Cup Classic.
00:38:27But I understand you guys have to make a difficult decision and we'll see what happens.
00:38:33Thank you, Bill, Zoe, and Randy.
00:38:35Really appreciate it.
00:38:36Case Clay, our guest of the week, brought to you courtesy of Gainesway, whose stallion McKenzie has a new grade
00:38:42one winner.
00:38:43That would be him who scored on Travers Day in the seven furlong four-go stakes.
00:38:48McKenzie now leads all third crop sires with his four grade one winners.
00:38:54And he's also number one by the number of grade one stakes horses with six.
00:39:00Another of his four grade one winners, Scottish Lassie, was second in the personal ensign also on Saturday behind fully
00:39:07subscribed.
00:39:08Gainesway, power, passion, performance.
00:39:13McKenzie in a dominant performance.
00:39:22A million, two, a million, two, right there. A million, two hundred thousand.
00:39:26Baeza gets his moment in the sun in the Pennsylvania Derby.
00:39:29Chancer McPatrick wins the champagne impressively.
00:39:33Spectacular display from Scottish Lassie, who's in front by 15 legs.
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00:41:01Well, if I had said on this podcast maybe two weeks ago that Jose Ortiz was not going to win
00:41:08the Saratoga riding title,
00:41:10I think Zoe and Randy might have said I was an idiot or crazy or something to that effect.
00:41:15But it's not within the realm of possibility because it's only three in front of Manny Franco, 65 wins going
00:41:23into this card on Wednesday.
00:41:26We're recording this on a Tuesday.
00:41:28Jose Ortiz has 65 wins.
00:41:29Manny Franco has 62.
00:41:31And we haven't talked really about Manny Franco's Saratoga run yet, but we'd be remiss if we didn't mention that
00:41:40this is one of the major stories of the meet.
00:41:44He only won 20 races at Saratoga last year.
00:41:48He's won 10 stakes races at the meet, including the Travers, three grade ones, the Travers, the Alabama, and the
00:41:54Christophe Lamont.
00:41:56Now, Manny on the New York racing circuit has won just a bushel full of races, but he kind of
00:42:03was stereotyped as the winter guy,
00:42:06the guy who would win at Aqueduct or Belmont at Aqueduct when the big boys left town.
00:42:13I think with what he's accomplished at Saratoga, I think trainers have already started, Zoe, to put him in the
00:42:22same realm as the Ortiz brothers and Flavia and Pratt.
00:42:26And absolutely, they should.
00:42:28He's a very, very good rider, and he's picking up an awful lot of horses for guys that are out
00:42:33of town.
00:42:35Obviously, for Brad Cox, a lot of people were taken.
00:42:38You go to Manny.
00:42:38He's solid.
00:42:39He's a good rider.
00:42:40He stays year-round.
00:42:42The money in New York is unbelievable.
00:42:46So, yes, he's at 62.
00:42:47Jose's at 65.
00:42:49Don't forget Flavian Pratt.
00:42:50He's at 60.
00:42:52Two weeks ago, I asked Flavian's agent, Brad.
00:42:54I'm like, hey, you know, kind of leading rider's getting away from you.
00:42:58He goes, don't worry.
00:42:59I don't care about that.
00:43:01I want the Money One title, and he's ahead of that right now with $7,635,000.
00:43:08So I looked up, guys, just to see where everyone was riding because I know that Pratt and everybody's going
00:43:15to Kentucky Downs.
00:43:16Pratt does actually ride in Saratoga on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, pretty much riding the card.
00:43:24He's in Kentucky Downs on Sunday.
00:43:27Now, Manny obviously rides every day.
00:43:30So Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
00:43:33Jose, for some reason, isn't riding anywhere on Wednesday.
00:43:36I cannot find an entry for him.
00:43:38I can't find anything that says he's got days anywhere.
00:43:40He's just not riding.
00:43:42He is riding in Kentucky Downs.
00:43:44For only two days, he's riding in Saratoga on Thursday and Friday with 11 mounts apiece.
00:43:50So it's down to those three, not just the two.
00:43:54It's going to be solid.
00:43:57It's going to be fun to watch.
00:43:59Yeah, right?
00:43:59As far as Manny Franco, Jerry Bailey and I have this running gag on NBC where I say jockeys don't
00:44:07matter, right?
00:44:08Obviously, jockeys matter.
00:44:10Jockeys matter a lot in horse racing.
00:44:12But my point in saying that is for a horse player, when you get to races like the Breeders' Cup,
00:44:19any of the Breeders' Cup races or any of the Triple Crown races, there are so many good, talented riders
00:44:25out there that they can look like superstars if they're mounted the right way.
00:44:31I mean, Javier Castellano, not all that long ago, was like the guy.
00:44:36And then it was Joel Rosario, and then Irad dominated with Jose, and then Jose had to leave New York
00:44:43to escape the shadow of his brother.
00:44:45And now Jose is like right at the top.
00:44:47And then Flavi and Pratt's there.
00:44:49Oh, Junior Alvarado.
00:44:50Oh, my gosh.
00:44:51I mean, he's been unbelievable for Bill Maude.
00:44:53And now Manny Franco.
00:44:54All these guys.
00:44:55All these guys.
00:44:56There's very little difference in quality, really, in my opinion, between the very top guys and the guys like Manny
00:45:04Franco, who just hasn't had maybe the opportunities that he's getting at the Saratoga meet.
00:45:09And that's the way I look at it.
00:45:11I mean, a lot of it has to do with who's the flavor of the month and the flavor of
00:45:17the year and what kind of mounts they're getting, obviously.
00:45:21Opportunity is everything.
00:45:23Kudos to Manny Franco.
00:45:24He's had a tremendous meet.
00:45:26But he's not any better now than he was a year ago.
00:45:29Yeah, I would agree with you, Randy.
00:45:31I mean, he's just getting the opportunities.
00:45:33And that's how it works.
00:45:35Absolutely.
00:45:37So yesterday on Monday, once again, remember, we always record the TDN Writers Room podcast on a Tuesday.
00:45:44But a major story came out.
00:45:47Churchill Downs has asked the FTC for an independent review of HISA.
00:45:54And here's what they said in a letter that they sent to the FTC, among other things.
00:45:59Churchill Downs Incorporated submits this letter to express serious concern regarding a series of recent events that raise significant questions
00:46:06about the governance, transparency, technology controls, and accountability of the Horse Racing Integrity and Safety Authority.
00:46:14The – and it has not been a good couple of weeks for HISA.
00:46:20The Marshall – we had the Quero's thing.
00:46:22I don't really put any blame on them for that.
00:46:25I mean, obviously, they had no idea that this was about to become the greatest betting scandal in maybe the
00:46:3521st century.
00:46:36But they don't look good in light of the Marshall Graham situation for a number of reasons.
00:46:43And there's so many unanswered questions about that.
00:46:47There are so many, you know, rumors.
00:46:49And who had access to this information?
00:46:52Does it go much deeper than Marshall Graham, et cetera?
00:46:56And I think Churchill Downs is right.
00:46:59And Mike Rapoli on our podcast last week kind of raised the same questions.
00:47:04And, you know, and only – in the way that only Mike Rapoli can do said, I'll pay out of
00:47:09my own pocket for a private investigation.
00:47:13And I think Churchill and Mike Rapoli are right.
00:47:16We need an independent investigation to get some answers here.
00:47:20And unless HISA thinks they have something to hide, I don't see, Randy, why they wouldn't agree to this.
00:47:27And we said it was the last week or the week before that when all the stuff came out associated
00:47:33with the Marshall Graham controversy about the security or lack thereof by ISA, I mean, we predicted that it was
00:47:40going to become a major issue.
00:47:42And, you know, it was going to be interesting to see exactly what else came out and exactly, you know,
00:47:48what else, you know, what else we learn about that particular situation and the Marshall Graham situation as well.
00:47:54Who else knew about the stuff, for example?
00:47:56And now, I mean, look, Bill Karstangian has obviously done an exemplary job in steering the Kentucky Derby.
00:48:05Before he took the job at CDI, he was in the corporate world, which is very hard-nosed.
00:48:12And he had a reputation for being a no-nonsense businessman when he came to CDI.
00:48:19I don't think Bill Karstangian is the kind of guy you want to be on the wrong side of in
00:48:25horse racing.
00:48:26You know, you want to have looking at you through crosshairs, right?
00:48:29And right now, Haissa with Karstangian, with Mike Rupole, is in the crosshairs.
00:48:37And it's going to be really revealing to see what happens with all this.
00:48:42Yeah.
00:48:43Just ask Bob if you're wondering about being in crosshairs with Bill.
00:48:47You do not want to get on the wrong side of him.
00:48:50Hey, you know what?
00:48:50Good for him.
00:48:51Good for him for taking it upon CDI to look into this.
00:48:56And there's going to be so much unraveling.
00:48:59And Mike Rupole, love him or hate him, he made some good points.
00:49:02You know, people love to hate him, but that's what he does.
00:49:05He's bringing up some valid points that will get looked at.
00:49:08You scream enough, someone's going to listen eventually.
00:49:12Where there's smoke, there's certainly fire at some point.
00:49:15Yeah, it doesn't mean, Bill, that we think Haissa has been, you know, has been, you know, not productive or
00:49:23not a good thing for horse racing in certain aspects.
00:49:26I mean, obviously, they have.
00:49:28But with Rupole, I think it's easy for people to say, well, he's just on another rant.
00:49:34There he is, you know, Mike ranting about something in horse racing.
00:49:38When Karstangian joins in to the argument, then it becomes, it kind of takes it to the next level.
00:49:44Okay, so again, on Tuesday, the day we record the podcast, some major news broke.
00:49:52And Angel Quiros is in deep doo-doo, even deeper doo-doo than he was a couple weeks ago.
00:49:59And as you all know, he's the central figure in the Fairhill Five scandal.
00:50:05Two of the horses, oh, first of all, he had a horse that did not run on the day where
00:50:11they allegedly cleaned out the bookmakers in England.
00:50:14One, tested positive for albuterol, which is a bronchodilator.
00:50:19And if at the end of the day, those charges hold, the penalty for that is a two-year suspension
00:50:26and $25,000 fine.
00:50:27For Mr. Quiros, it got a lot worse today when Haiza slash Haiwu announced that two more horses have tested
00:50:37positive.
00:50:38And the significance of that is that they were two of the Fairhill Five horses.
00:50:46I asked Haiwu, a representative, what about the other three?
00:50:51And they said at this point, they're really not able to discuss what has happened with them.
00:50:58They have been tested, whether they test positive or not, will be something that we'll learn down the road.
00:51:06Just a personal note on this.
00:51:08When the great emir we talked about last week was scratched, as Zoe predicted, from Friday race at Monmouth, I
00:51:16texted Mr. Quiros for a comment and clarification on the situation.
00:51:22And his reply was basically, F you, don't bother me again.
00:51:27Thanks, Angel.
00:51:28Appreciate the comments.
00:51:29Anyways, we're going to take a break and when we come back, we're going to get the first TV work
00:51:35of the week.
00:51:36That's always fun.
00:51:37And we're going to learn the latest from West Point Thoroughbreds.
00:51:41And then we're going to take a look at the major races of the weekend coming up this Saturday at
00:51:47Saratoga, Del Mar, and Kentucky Downs.
00:51:49Stay with us.
00:51:50The TDN Writer's Room Work of the Week is brought to you by First TV.
00:51:54The undefeated Hughes worked an easy five furlong solo in 101 flat on Sunday for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert.
00:52:02Hughes broke his maiden in his debut in June and followed that up with a win in the Grade 3
00:52:08Best Pal States on August the 8th.
00:52:11He's expected to make his very next start in the Grade 1 Del Mar Faturity on Sunday, September the 6th.
00:52:18And he does look pretty darn good there.
00:52:20He's probably going to lay over the rest of this field.
00:52:22We'll be right back after this message from First TV.
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00:53:27TD and Riders are brought to you also by West Point Thoroughbreds.
00:53:31It was a busy final weekend at Saratoga and Del Mar as it attempts to put exclamation points on its
00:53:37fine summer racing season.
00:53:39West Point has won four races.
00:53:41West Point has won four races at Saratoga and have a chance to add to that with six more starters
00:53:46coming up.
00:53:48Five on Saturday's card alone.
00:53:50And then the final one on the season-ending card on Labor Day Monday.
00:53:55Meanwhile, out west to Del Mar.
00:53:57West Point has a pair of live chances this weekend.
00:54:00As the stable looks to build on a debut victory by drifting and dreaming earlier in the meet.
00:54:06It's one final push at the signature summer destinations in racing before the calendar shifts to new Belmont Park, then
00:54:14Keeneland, and the Breeders' Cup.
00:54:20Well, let's start with the Saratoga goings-on this weekend.
00:54:24On Saturday is the grade 1 spin away.
00:54:27Two horses kind of jump off the page.
00:54:28Summer starlet and life-changing.
00:54:30One thing about life, big buyer numbers, blowout wins in their debuts.
00:54:36One thing I found interesting was that Luis Saez took off life-changing, who might be the favorite in the
00:54:43spin away, to head over to Kentucky Downs, where he's going to ride Glacius in the $3 million Nashville Derby.
00:54:51We'll talk about that a little bit later.
00:54:54But, Randy, is it summer starlet?
00:54:56Is it life-changing, or is it someone else?
00:54:58I don't blame Luis Saez for running for whatever many million dollars.
00:55:02I mean, that's what it all comes down to, is the money.
00:55:04Anyway, Harper's Corner also had a huge buyer in her previous race, heading into the spin away.
00:55:10To me, it's hard.
00:55:13There's a limited amount of information because they're two-year-olds.
00:55:16But the way summer starlet won her race from off the pace and settled nicely from off the pace with
00:55:23all the speed in there, I think that probably gives her an advantage, but wouldn't be much of one.
00:55:28She's drawn down on the inside.
00:55:31She's post-position number two.
00:55:33When she broke a maiden, she was post-position number seven.
00:55:35Just something to think about there.
00:55:37She'll get Ricardo Santana to ride.
00:55:39I mean, you have to like life-changing on the outside with Pratt.
00:55:43Was drawn eight of ten last time.
00:55:45Draws the outside here.
00:55:46Angel of Kirk's been working well for Brad Cox.
00:55:49He's got seven two-year-old winners at the meet already.
00:55:53We'll talk about his horse and the hopeful a little bit later on.
00:55:56So those would be the top two for me.
00:55:58If you want to throw in a horse who may be a little bit of a price, Gervie Girl for
00:56:02Safi Joseph has been at Saratoga and working very, very well indeed.
00:56:07Now, she won by 15 in her debut at Goldstream Park.
00:56:12Probably nothing behind her, but her works at Saratoga have been very impressive.
00:56:17So, Zoe, the PPs aren't out yet for the hopeful, but it looks like a stacked field.
00:56:22What can you tell us about that?
00:56:24You've got to like the good life in there, right, for trainer Brad Cox.
00:56:28He actually took him back to Churchill and trained him there, and he's supposed to ship out to Saratoga, I
00:56:34believe, on Thursday.
00:56:35So he's likely the horse to beat, but I'll give you one that you need to check out the work
00:56:41on First TV, and that's Flight Command.
00:56:43There were a trio of Rudy Rodriguez, who's hellacious for, like, giving names at the right time, going down the
00:56:50backside, and there was a horse that broke off behind him.
00:56:54Rank, rank at the five-eighths pole, head in the air, running off with the rider, and then all of
00:56:58a sudden he settled at the half-mile pole.
00:57:01Sat behind horses, ate dirt, riders just covered, pulled out, and won that work by 10.
00:57:07That was Flight Command.
00:57:08You may see a different kind of son of flight line on Saturday or Monday.
00:57:13Whenever it is.
00:57:15Randy, your hopeful thoughts?
00:57:17I don't have any hopeful thoughts, Bill.
00:57:19The past performances aren't in yet as we tape this, and Zoe pointed out, you know, Brad Cox's horse, who
00:57:25looked very, very good last time.
00:57:27And to me, he'd be the horse to beat, but a second was Zoe said.
00:57:30Okay.
00:57:31Let's move to Del Mar, where that meet has a huge weekend as well.
00:57:36On Saturday is the Del Mar debutante, fairly wide-open race, but no surprise that Bob Baffert looks pretty loaded
00:57:43in there as he has the pair of Holmby and Miss Monica.
00:57:48And I always like to note, because I think this is an important handicapping factor, J.J. Hernandez has picked
00:57:56to ride Miss Monica over Holmby.
00:57:59You're our California gal, Zoe, so I'll start with you.
00:58:02What about the Del Mar debutante?
00:58:04I don't know about that, Bill.
00:58:06I got back yesterday.
00:58:07I've been in Saratoga all summer.
00:58:09And Nebraska.
00:58:10Yeah, Nebraska.
00:58:11You know who's most intriguing to me in here?
00:58:14And that's the Dick Mandela trainee.
00:58:16Dear Diary, a daughter of intermischief, out of bounds.
00:58:20She's a maiden.
00:58:21She ran a bang-up race running second in her maiden race.
00:58:25She's going to be a little bit of a price in there, so I would look at her.
00:58:29Mandela's got two.
00:58:30He got off of well-versed in there.
00:58:33Obviously, all the money most likely is going to go on Miss Monica, daughter of early voting in here for
00:58:41Bob Baffert, who won by five on her debut.
00:58:44Watch out for Brendan's filly, Fast Amy, coming in here.
00:58:47She draws a good post on the outside.
00:58:50Miss Monica will probably be four to five.
00:58:52She was one to two in her career debut, and she won it by almost six lengths over well-versed,
00:58:58who was then ten lengths ahead of the rest of the field.
00:59:01Will the other Baffert horse home be, you know, got a nine-point lower buyer speed figure?
00:59:06She's a $55,000 two-year-old, and Miss Monica is an $850,000 two-year-old, so, you know,
00:59:15owned by the three amigos.
00:59:17So I think Miss Monica is going to be a very short-price favorite there.
00:59:20Did Bill just crack open a beer?
00:59:22I heard that.
00:59:23I recognize that sound anywhere.
00:59:26Please, Zoe, as a Diet Coke, it's way too early for that.
00:59:30But, yes.
00:59:32All right, Zoe, once again, I'll put the impetus on you.
00:59:36Now that you're back in Monrovia, California, what do you think about the Del Mar Futurity?
00:59:44This is going to be a smaller field.
00:59:46I had maybe five or six.
00:59:48We don't have the entries yet.
00:59:49Hughes, Kenny 10.
00:59:51He's no lie.
00:59:52I mean, Hughes is probably going to be the favorite for Bob winning, what, his 25th Futurity?
00:59:58I'm not sure how many.
01:00:0020th.
01:00:0020th.
01:00:01Close, close.
01:00:02I knew it was in the twos.
01:00:03So, yeah, number 20.
01:00:04Well done, Bob.
01:00:06Looks like it's going to be Hughes.
01:00:09Bob has won the Del Mar Futurity and the Del Mar Debutant a total of, get this, 31 times.
01:00:18That's it.
01:00:1819 for the Futurity and 12 for the Debutant.
01:00:21That's crazy.
01:00:22Not surprising, as he has obviously dominated the two-year-old scene in California for decades,
01:00:28and he's going to be tough to beat this weekend.
01:00:32Well, Kentucky Downs, I think the total purses on the card on Saturday are like $53 million
01:00:37or something like that.
01:00:40I mean, every race, it's their biggest day of the meet.
01:00:44Randy, it's on NBC.
01:00:45Are you heading to Kentucky Downs by any chance?
01:00:47All right.
01:00:47I'll be on the telecast, but as we did last week, we'll be doing it from the studio.
01:00:52So, instead of Franklin, Kentucky, it'll be Stanford, Connecticut.
01:00:56All right.
01:00:56Well, nonetheless, we will be watching, and whether you guys are in Connecticut or live
01:01:03at the track, you guys do a great job.
01:01:05So, anyways.
01:01:05All right.
01:01:06So, the Nashville Derby first.
01:01:09Very interesting race.
01:01:10And I thought, I didn't have time to look it up, but, say, you know, Brian, he hasn't
01:01:17showed up much at all at Kentucky Downs.
01:01:19And he brings in, I do this way too often.
01:01:24Causeway.
01:01:25Causeway.
01:01:26Bring in his main man, Ryan Moore.
01:01:28But he runs into Glacius, another European-based horse, but has already run in the U.S.
01:01:35And he's won the grade one Saratoga Derby.
01:01:38And, again, that's what I mentioned before.
01:01:41Luis Saez opting to not ride, I assume that was his decision, to not ride life-changing
01:01:47in the spin-away, to head to Kentucky Downs and try to fatten his wallet in a $3 million
01:01:52race, which is, by the way, the second richest race for three-year-olds running this country
01:01:59behind only the Kentucky Derby.
01:02:01So, Randy, I'll start with you.
01:02:04Have you had a chance to dig a little bit deeper into Nashville Derby?
01:02:09And what'd you come up with?
01:02:10I've dug a huge hole.
01:02:14It's the richest race other than the Derby or whatever, if you're a Kentucky bred.
01:02:20Exactly.
01:02:21Otherwise, the purse is still lucrative, but not as lucrative.
01:02:25And the leading contenders in this particular spot are all the Europeans coming in.
01:02:31And the Irish bred, the German bred, another Irish bred, Great Britain bred.
01:02:37Obviously, in this country, the three-year-olds are campaigned, first and foremost, on dirt
01:02:44because of our Triple Crown and the importance of the Triple Crown.
01:02:47And turf is an afterthought to those horses at this time of year.
01:02:51And then Europe, it's completely different, obviously.
01:02:54You know, the focus is always on grass.
01:02:57And so, you know, Glacius came over and was very impressive with a wire-to-wire win.
01:03:04Hugo Palmer, the trainer, specifically going to Luis Saez because he looked at the past performances
01:03:09and wanted his horse on the lead and said,
01:03:11Hey, which jockey would be more likely to put my horse on the lead?
01:03:15And it's Luis Saez, and he went wire-to-wire.
01:03:18The Coolmore horse, to answer your question, Aiden O'Brien's won one race, has run at Kentucky Downs in one
01:03:26race in the past.
01:03:27That's it.
01:03:28Finished fourth, I think, in that spot.
01:03:30But this is a horse that's unbelievably well-bred.
01:03:34He's out of a full sister to Magical, the two-time Breeders' Cup turf runner-up,
01:03:39and Rhododendron, the Breeders' Cup Philly and Mare turf runner-up.
01:03:43He's very lazy, according to Aiden.
01:03:47When he wins, it's not by much because he doesn't want to win by much.
01:03:50He just does as much as he has to.
01:03:53And then the horse of Joseph O'Brien's, Nilbua Gondua.
01:03:59Also looks like a leading contender in here.
01:04:01Not so sure about the German horse coming off a really poor effort last time out.
01:04:06But to me, Zoe, the four horses coming across the pond on paper look like they're better than ours.
01:04:13And that's really been the course of the summer, right?
01:04:16They're better than ours.
01:04:17Even the grade threes are better than ours.
01:04:20You can bring a listed horse over here at the moment, better than ours.
01:04:23And that does infer to glaciers for Hugo Palmer, who's going to hear his feet rattle again.
01:04:30They're moving post times up on Wednesday.
01:04:33In fact, races one through seven will be carded on Wednesday starting at 11 a.m.
01:04:38And the rest are being shifted towards Monday and Wednesday, I believe, because it's scorching down there.
01:04:44I think the high today is 96 degrees and they're kind of in a little bit of a basin down
01:04:49there.
01:04:50When it's hot, it's hot.
01:04:51So one thing you need to watch out for with all these Euros running, glaciers actually ran well at Saratoga
01:04:57and it was hot that day.
01:04:59It's just take note of the heat.
01:05:01Euros aren't used to this kind of heat, although they actually have had some heat waves over there of late,
01:05:05but probably not the type of heat that you're going to get in Franklin, Kentucky.
01:05:09They certainly won't be used to that.
01:05:11Yeah. So you have to like glaciers, who I don't know, is going to it's a long stretch there.
01:05:18Watch out for Miguel's horse coming back in six days.
01:05:21The New York bread. Where is he?
01:05:24Caroline Street beat ran a banger race just last week, and that was the plan all along to ship him
01:05:30out there.
01:05:30So I might hang my hat there just just a little bit.
01:05:34But I think the Euros are going to be tough.
01:05:36Randy, you said that the American three-year-olds point for the Triple Crown.
01:05:43That is when there used to be a Triple Crown.
01:05:46So anyways, we have talked about that subject.
01:05:51But anyways, the whole dynamic obviously has changed quite a bit this year with the developments that we have covered.
01:05:59All right. So we could talk about all the other big races, the Kentucky Downs.
01:06:05But the one I also want to concentrate on is the Kentucky Turf Cup, because I'm a big Burnham Square
01:06:10fan.
01:06:11He's obviously the worst to beat in there.
01:06:13But I got to take a deeper look at the race before I make a pick or a handicapping opinion,
01:06:21because, to be honest with you, really wasn't that impressive in his last two races.
01:06:27He didn't look like the horse that I don't remember the race.
01:06:30The first one where he just ran huge in the mile-and-a-half distance that Ian Wilkes has now
01:06:37put him in
01:06:39and changed his career around to a 180 after he was a very good dirt horse who won the Bluegrass
01:06:45last year.
01:06:46Randy, am I right about Burnham Square, or is he too good for his opponents on Saturday?
01:06:54He'll probably win, but I share your concern.
01:06:58I mean, I don't want to be too critical of Burnham Square, because he's won his last four starts.
01:07:05But analytically, each of those four races, I thought he's looked a little less impressive each subsequent race.
01:07:13I mean, the first of those four was the Elkhorn at 10.
01:07:15Keeneland, which happens to be the side of the Breeders' Cup this year,
01:07:18at the same distance as the Breeders' Cup turf a mile-and-a-half.
01:07:21And he was amazing.
01:07:23Amazing.
01:07:24That race that day would typically beat whoever the Europeans bring over.
01:07:30He was that good.
01:07:32He was on.
01:07:33It was a misty day.
01:07:34It was a firm course, but it had a little give in it.
01:07:37He just relished the turf that particular day.
01:07:41Then in the Louisville, he wins.
01:07:43He kicked away nicely.
01:07:45Not quite as dynamic as he was at Keeneland.
01:07:48In the Chorleywood, his next race at Churchill, it was kind of a weirdly run race.
01:07:53It was a slow pace.
01:07:54He broke sharply.
01:07:56He found himself on the lead.
01:07:57Got really keen when Brian Hernandez tried to throttle him back a little bit.
01:08:02So, Hernandez just let him go.
01:08:04And he was on the lead all the way, which is uncharacteristic, really, of Burnham Square.
01:08:07And in the million, he was life and death to beat just a couple of, you know, horses that would
01:08:13have no chance at beating the Europeans in the Breeders' Cup.
01:08:16So, Zoe, I think it's going to be very interesting to see if Burnham Square can get back leading into
01:08:21the Breeders' Cup to where he was back in April at Keeneland.
01:08:25Didn't everyone say a few weeks ago that he couldn't win going a mile and a quarter and he was
01:08:29a mile and a half horse anyway?
01:08:31So, it didn't really surprise me that he would only win by half a length.
01:08:35I think the thing we need to look at here is the Euros and the horse for course angle.
01:08:39Burnham Square, second there last year, just missed by a neck.
01:08:44You have, who else is in there?
01:08:46Oh, Crazy Bone won this race last year.
01:08:48He's a horse for course, always shows up.
01:08:51Jose Ortiz knows him.
01:08:52He's riding him.
01:08:54Fort George is coming in for Ed Walker.
01:08:56He's been working really, really well at Saratoga all summer long.
01:09:00He's been there since he just lost in the Bowling Green at Saratoga the beginning of July.
01:09:05So, he's doing good and he's kind of a smaller, handier horse.
01:09:09I think he's going to love that track, really, really love that track.
01:09:14Nobody wants to talk about the two-mile chaser, Ethical Diamond.
01:09:18This is a course that's built for him.
01:09:20The Breeders' Cup winner, he'll get Ryan Moore coming in to ride him.
01:09:24He's just been subpar back in Europe, but comes off a win by a nose in just an OK Group
01:09:303 over there, Ethical Diamond.
01:09:32And then, you know, I'd be remiss for me not to mention my old boss, Samart Prescott,
01:09:38coming over with a six-year-old mare by the name of Tiffany.
01:09:41Tiffany, she's already won a win-and-you're-in.
01:09:43She's already a grade-one winner in Japan.
01:09:45He's like, let's just go.
01:09:46We're going to Nashville.
01:09:47It's like a point-to-point course over there.
01:09:50So, he's bringing Tiffany to have a gallop around there as well.
01:09:53Terrific racing.
01:09:54I'm really looking forward to this race.
01:09:57As we tape this on Tuesday, guys, Ryan Moore is not a sure thing to make it.
01:10:03There's some travel issues.
01:10:04He really needs to try to get back on Sunday and to Ireland and not really sure, or to Europe,
01:10:11and not really sure he can make it yet.
01:10:13That's still a work in progress.
01:10:15Okay.
01:10:16All right.
01:10:16So, we'll see if Ryan Moore makes it.
01:10:19And we'll certainly be focusing on the cards at all three racetracks, Kentucky Downs, Saratoga, and Del Mar this week.
01:10:27And another great weekend of racing as we celebrate the Labor Day weekend, kind of the unofficial end of summer.
01:10:35Well, thanks for joining us on this edition of the TDN Writer's Room.
01:10:39We had hoped to get a scandal-free podcast, which we haven't done in a long time, but Mr. Quiros,
01:10:46I guess, prevented that from happening.
01:10:49I want to thank my partners, Zoe Cadman and Randy Moss.
01:10:53I want to thank our Gainsway Guests of the Week, Case Play.
01:10:56As I say, each and every week, I want to give thanks to the people, the producers, and the directors
01:11:00who work behind the scenes and do such a fantastic job.
01:11:04That's Sue Finley, Katie Petruniak, Anthony LaRocca, and Aaliyah LaRocca.
01:11:08Enjoy a great weekend of racing, and we'll talk to you next week.
01:11:12And Lucy.
01:11:14Lucy's awake.
01:11:15She needs to go outside.
01:11:17She's like, come on, daddy, carry me to the loo.
01:11:20That's it.