- 7 weeks ago
Reggie and Lopez disagree about Houston’s receivers, so Reggie brings the numbers to court and tries to convince Lopez that the Texans’ WR room might be better than he thinks.
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00:00Yesterday we were talking about, you know, now that we've gotten down to the, I guess, past the initial 53,
00:05to a roster that it feels like they're going to work with going into the football season, the Texans that
00:10is.
00:11We were having a conversation and one of the things that you brought up yesterday was just a seeming, you
00:17know, lack of belief,
00:19at least when it comes to what is absolutely known from this wide receiver core.
00:23Not necessarily the upside that is there, because I think that that is very much a large part of what
00:28is the expectation for this wide receiving core
00:30and this receiving core just in general, right?
00:32Not just wide receivers, but tight ends and everything is the upside that it presents headed into this year with
00:37development.
00:38But I actually got, you'd be surprised to hear this, John.
00:41I got caught up looking at stats.
00:42Yeah.
00:43I know that you're shocked.
00:45Did you read any athletic articles?
00:46Actually, this was FTN.
00:48Okay.
00:49I got this in a different place.
00:50But this is how I was winding down yesterday.
00:53You'll also be surprised to hear.
00:55You wind down with stats.
00:56Not always, but just in this instance.
00:58Just in this instance.
00:59I personally like a nice Cabernet.
01:02I mean, tomato, tomato.
01:03I hear the same thing.
01:04I like to wind down with numbers.
01:06That's right.
01:06That's right.
01:07It's so relaxing.
01:08100%.
01:09It's like counting sheep, except DVOA.
01:12But no, there was a couple of things that came to mind here, and I feel like there's possibilities.
01:16I'm going to try, John, to try and assuage some of your fears,
01:19to try and walk you off the edge of that, man, I'm not seeing the bona fides here for this
01:24wide receiving core.
01:25And I start you with one of these things.
01:26It was just fascinating to me because I was looking at receivers who had the least amount of cushion given
01:34to them on average.
01:36This is one of those things where you go, man, they track this and they chart this.
01:39I got to know the letters on this one.
01:40Oh, there's not letters.
01:40Oh, okay.
01:41It's just the guys who were given the least amount of cushion on average.
01:47So, you know, obviously you see some guys and it's just like, hey, we're all the way back here.
01:50The guys who were given the least amount of cushion in wide receiving,
01:55the Texans are about to run out two of the top four.
01:58Kayshawn Booty was pressed second most of anybody in the league last year,
02:02and Nico Collins was pressed fourth most of any receivers this year.
02:07I feel like that shows like a level of, I don't know, belief or whatever.
02:13Like defenses are clearly accounting for something amongst these two wide receivers here.
02:17And now you have both of them lined up together.
02:21And I feel like that has to mean something for this wide receiving core.
02:25You know what I mean?
02:26I don't know what it would mean, though.
02:30Because, yes, I mean, I get your point.
02:32If you're pressing on him, clearly you're going to have help behind.
02:37You know?
02:38Maybe that's the case, right?
02:39Or, yeah, I guess that's one of the places you could play this, right?
02:42You could play this almost in some level of bracket where that guy's pressed
02:45and then we have someone over top.
02:46You have to.
02:46Which means that...
02:47By and large, they do.
02:48And that tracks with the type of receivers we're talking about, right?
02:52Kayshawn Booty, despite the fact that he's not like a big necessarily dude,
02:56he's at what, like 5'10", and he's not a crazy fast dude,
02:59he continues to make big plays.
03:00So clearly that's the level of respect that he's given.
03:02I don't need to tell you about Nico Collins.
03:04At the very least, what I think that is, even if you just go,
03:07well, they're not giving him crazy cushion,
03:09so it's not like they're afraid that they're going to go deep on them.
03:11I don't know if that's exactly what we take away from this,
03:13but at least in my mind, and tell me if you think I'm wrong here,
03:15at the very least what that is is teams have a level of concern,
03:20focus on both of those guys.
03:21That feels like, at the very least, Jalen Knowles should get off of that, right?
03:25Like, we should have some level of concern for your outside guys.
03:28I guess, in theory, they might move around.
03:30And Jalen Knowles, the third guy,
03:31especially if you're running 11 personnel,
03:32that should give him opportunities to be able to do things,
03:35especially because they like running him on maybe not a straight-out route,
03:39but like some of those corners at times,
03:41as opposed to some of those, you know,
03:42when you're working from the middle of the field,
03:43you can go either direction.
03:44I think that should give him some opportunities to do some things
03:47and attack teams maybe outside the numbers a little bit.
03:49I think this is something of a, and I'm not poo-pooing the stat
03:53or the observation by any stretch,
03:57but I think it's also an interpretation of how defenses look at particular receivers.
04:03Because when you say Nico Collins, you know, is pressed a lot,
04:07I immediately think, well, that's because they have a safety helping.
04:10Do they necessarily with booty,
04:12or do they feel they can get away with that with him?
04:15You know, it's philosophy and approach for that particular receiver.
04:19And that's a fair point to bring up,
04:22and I appreciate that you did,
04:23because obviously everything needs context,
04:25and that would be an interesting context if that was the case.
04:28I actually still feel good about that,
04:29because if you want to press Kayshawn Booty,
04:30I know he's not the fastest, but he's a good contested catch guy.
04:33If you're giving him the idea of now you're running backwards
04:36while he's running forwards,
04:37and he's a good guy up in the air,
04:39I'd still like that as a small bit of a margin towards my guy
04:43to give us an opportunity to get plays over top.
04:45You know what I mean?
04:46I get it.
04:47Like I said, I think it's how that defense, you know,
04:50interprets that particular threat.
04:52That particular threat being Nico versus Booty or whatever.
04:56But then you also, you know, with that being the case,
04:59and I know it was in 14 games,
05:01but he still had just 33 catches.
05:03So maybe it works.
05:05You know, that works against a guy like that.
05:07He didn't have that many targets either.
05:09It was only 40-something targets as well.
05:10Like, does that tick up as well?
05:12Or maybe it doesn't, and maybe I can jump into this, right?
05:15Because one of the things we notice with the wide receiving core
05:17that the Texans, or the room that they're running out right now,
05:20the guys that are coded as slot guys,
05:23I don't want to make it seem that other guys can't play in the slot,
05:27but the guys that are coded as a slot guy,
05:28I guess I shouldn't say guys, there is a guy.
05:30It is Jaylen Knoll, who in our minds is slot guy.
05:34Can I interest you in,
05:35there's actually a secondary slot guy on the 53-man roster.
05:38Okay.
05:38Not just the Louis Vaughn on the practice squad.
05:40His name is Xavier Hutchinson.
05:42Last year, when it came to wide receivers
05:45who had the biggest disparity between production from the slot
05:49and lining up wide,
05:51Xavier Hutchinson was guy number two,
05:52where there was a huge difference,
05:55a giant difference in what he did
05:58when he was playing in the slot
05:59and what he was playing out wide.
06:00And this is not accounting for
06:02what it felt like was a transcendent camp for him,
06:05where he's clearly taken a step forward that is notable,
06:07not just one that is marginal.
06:09And he was in the slot 28% of the time,
06:12meaning a majority of the time,
06:14almost three quarters of the time,
06:15he was working from the outside.
06:16And it feels like,
06:17especially with Nick Haley's at least stated
06:20or purported goal of moving guys around,
06:23Xavier Hutchinson might be rolling more in the slot.
06:25Hell, before you get Jaylen Knoll back,
06:27he's the guy who is running in the slot
06:29when you're going through 11 personnel.
06:30Is it possible that you also see
06:32a big jump from Xavier Hutchinson
06:34in that the thing that he did well last year,
06:36we're going to do more of that
06:38and he's gotten better at doing stuff just generally.
06:39What was his production in the slot?
06:40His production in the slot,
06:41well, I got to get that,
06:43I got to separate that out,
06:44but I will say that it was just a wide disparity
06:46where he was much, much better
06:49when he was in the slot versus where he was.
06:51Well, then no need to do that then,
06:53as long as we know.
06:54Because I mean,
06:54I think that you can then take this to
06:56what do you remember seeing from him when he played?
06:58And when he was out wide,
06:59you were like, oh, this is okay.
07:01It is what it is.
07:02Much better.
07:03Much better in the slot.
07:05Yeah.
07:06Much better in the slot.
07:07No, I do like that one.
07:08That one, you can maybe sway me a little more
07:10than the first one.
07:11I think the first one is more just like
07:12how that particular defense faced that particular guy.
07:15How often was there safety help
07:16or did they think they could get away with covering booty?
07:19And they kind of did,
07:20you know, in terms of big numbers by pressing him.
07:23That one, you can sway me a little more
07:25if he is in the slot more often
07:28and productive there.
07:29But how much of it is going to be that?
07:32Or how much have we seen in the preseason
07:35and a training camp of him even doing that?
07:37You know, I can't recall a whole lot.
07:40It's a fair point.
07:40Well, and we've not in the preseason as much, right?
07:43But also,
07:44I can't.
07:44None of the starters did too much
07:46in preseason games either way.
07:48And at that point,
07:49he was still operating as a starter
07:50because Jalen Knoll was still injured, right?
07:52And so, I don't know that you can use the preseason
07:55to do too much on the starters
07:57just generally, at least in the passing game.
07:59Here's the third thing that I had.
08:00Third and final thing that I had
08:01as a statistic to hopefully help calm
08:03some of your wide receiver concerns.
08:06Last year, Nico Collins,
08:08and you're like, yeah, I know.
08:09Nico Collins was a top 10 receiver last year
08:12amongst all pass catchers.
08:13Not just wide receivers.
08:14Wide receivers, tight ends, running backs,
08:16anybody that went out to catch a pass.
08:17He was top 10 amongst qualified pass catchers
08:20versus single high looks, right?
08:21When that safety is in the middle of the field.
08:23In fact, remember at training camp,
08:25I asked him about it.
08:26I was like, man, y'all were so good at this last year.
08:27Why was that?
08:29The Texans are going to run out
08:30somebody who was also top 20 versus too high.
08:33And that's Kayshawn Booty.
08:34So, it might be saying,
08:36and I say this to say,
08:38you might have the keys to unlocking
08:39more coverages this year
08:41than you did last year.
08:42And that's just a small part of this, right?
08:44When you get too high,
08:45also, what I start thinking about is
08:46can you run seams over the middle, right?
08:48And who are the guys you're thinking of?
08:51Is that something?
08:51Well, Marlon Klein already looked good
08:53running the seam in preseason.
08:54Like, how much more can you extrapolate that?
08:56Tight ends seem to be seam-type guys anyways.
08:58Is that something where you possibly
09:00could get Jalen Knoll involved?
09:01That's maybe more of a hypothetical.
09:03But then Brevin Jordan also is a guy
09:04that they have made a case to retain.
09:07Is it possible that he could get involved in that?
09:08I feel like you have more guys
09:10to attack too high than you did before.
09:13It just seemed to be like you previously had
09:15a guy that could really kill it
09:16if a team, for some reason,
09:18decided to have a single high safety.
09:19Now I think you have more opportunities to go,
09:22we can whoop your ass
09:23no matter what you get out here defensively.
09:25Yeah, I think that actually speaks
09:26to the roster makeup
09:27that we've talked about
09:28the last couple of days
09:29because you have Brevin Jordan
09:32maybe operating as a hybrid-type
09:34tight end-slash-wide receiver
09:36for that particular reason.
09:38And you know this.
09:40Your job as offensive coordinator
09:42is to figure out a way
09:44to get the defense to play
09:45what you want to see.
09:46You know, not have the defense dictate
09:49what they want to do,
09:52but make them get into that too high safety.
09:54Make them get into softer coverage
09:57so you can run those routes.
09:58And I think the bigger point here
10:00is they're building the roster
10:02to try to do more of that.
10:03You know, with Brevin Jordan,
10:04with Marlon Klein in the seam,
10:05with maybe even Hutchinson in the slot more.
10:10So not only...
10:11Yeah, Hutchinson's a big boy.
10:11I imagine that would work as well.
10:13Yeah, so not just to have these guys
10:16run these particular routes,
10:17but dictate what the defense is showing you.
10:20And then that helps Niko Collins as well.
10:22So those three statistics
10:23that I throw out here, right?
10:24Both of these guys being pressed a lot
10:26in Niko and Booty.
10:28Xavier Hutchinson actually being much better
10:30in the slot than he was last year
10:32in the slot than he was wide.
10:33And then this,
10:34it's that you have two guys
10:35in Niko and Kayshawn
10:37that are good at various different...
10:39are good at unlocking
10:39various different defenses.
10:41I think that if you put those together,
10:43I think you can build a profile of...
10:44And this is from 2025.
10:46Like, this isn't projecting.
10:47This is what they did
10:48on the field last year.
10:49I think that there's actually
10:50things that make you go,
10:52yeah, no, there's more tools
10:53to be used here
10:54than maybe it at once seems
10:56with this wide receiving.
10:57I think absolutely.
10:59You've convinced me
11:00that there are more options here.
11:03I don't know if you've convinced me
11:04like I have more confidence
11:05in what their production is.
11:07Sure.
11:07So I think that's where
11:08we're going to land.
11:09Okay, fair enough.
11:10Look, I think that I moved you
11:11a little bit further
11:12than I thought I would anyways.
11:13I thought you would just
11:13clam up and be like,
11:14no, none of this makes sense.
11:15It's all stupid.
11:16What the hell are you talking about?
11:18Fair enough.
11:19Somebody goes,
11:19Reggie, wind down with stats.
11:20Take a vacation.
11:21I won't be here tomorrow.
11:22Deal with it.
11:23But no,
11:24you're still going to be
11:24looking at stats.
11:25You're going to be reading.
11:26Hey, look.
11:27I didn't tell you
11:29what I'm going to be doing.
11:29Vacation my ass.
11:31I need these numbers.
11:33But no,
11:34this is,
11:35if you're looking at me
11:36and going,
11:37Reggie,
11:37why have you been trying
11:38to push it like this
11:39wide receiving core
11:40is much better?
11:42I'm not going to tell you
11:42that it's like all world,
11:44but I do think
11:45that there are some things
11:45that you can absolutely
11:46point to that say,
11:47if Nick Caley does
11:48what he's supposed to do,
11:49which is still an if
11:50that's out there,
11:51there's ways to get
11:52production that we've
11:53already seen from these guys
11:54and more for this team
11:56passing the football.
11:57Yeah.