- 2 months ago
On this edition of the Mood of the Nation discussion, host Akshita is joined by Kaushik Deka, Managing Editor of India Today magazine, C-Voter founder Yashwant Deshmukh, political analyst Sumanth Raman, and commentator Rangaraj Pandey to analyze actor-turned-politician Vijay's surprising traction in Northeast India. Kaushik Deka points out that 'there is a novelty factor' surrounding Vijay among youngsters, citing his distinct styling, westernized image, and youth disillusionment with established political parties. Yashwant Deshmukh highlights how Vijay functions as a political phenomenon punching above his weight, while questioning whether this social media honeymoon period can be sustained over time. Sumanth Raman argues that Vijay's regional numbers outside Tamil Nadu stem from a manufactured social media campaign spreading fake news. Rangaraj Pandey suggests Vijay is capturing the anti-incumbency space previously occupied by opposition forces, while debating if his Christian background or Tamil Nadu workforce connections in the Northeast explain the surge. The panel explores whether Vijay can challenge national leaders ahead of 2029.
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00:00Kaushik Deka, managing editor of India Today magazine is also with us. Kaushik, you know, if you see the region
00:06-wise breakdown, it's stunning really that the Northeast has chosen Vijay more than, you know, the Southern states have. What
00:14explains this? Do you think it's just, you know, the fascination, the curiosity around Vijay because of all of the
00:19social media traction? Or it's much more than that?
00:22Yeah, partly true. But I'll tell you one story. Some three years back, when Vijay was just a film star,
00:31the daughter of an ASMI's IAS officer, she came to me and she requested that whether I possibly can organize
00:38a meeting with Vijay because we work in media. They say that you invite different film stars to your conclaves.
00:45So I was very surprised at that time because he was not asking for Shah Rukh Khan or Ranveer Singh
00:50or any North Indian film star, but Vijay. I hadn't watched any movie by him at that time. So it
00:58struck me. Then I had the discussion with some other youngsters and they all knew about Vijay, not just Vijay,
01:03some other film stars also. That's one part. As I said, as a film star, he has great appeal among
01:09youngsters.
01:10Second part is, as Mr. Yashvan Deshmukh has explained, that Christianity is also an impact, but not that so much.
01:18You have to also understand that in terms of not exactly culture, but certain lifestyles, there is a similarity between
01:27North Eastern states and South Indian states, starting from rising in culture.
01:33Yes, and the way they behave, they focus a lot on education. English is another important factor here, the language.
01:44So all these things also create a kind of proximity between the North Eastern students and South India.
01:52And you probably know that there are a large number of North Eastern students and other professionals also working in
01:59the South.
02:00So they have a familiarity with South culture. And the Vijay's get-up, that he is one politician who is
02:07always in suit and he dresses nicely, is a film star, good-looking film star.
02:12And you know, North East is a fashionable place. Fashion plays a very important role over there.
02:18So all these things, I believe, has created that they have found someone who is not just like another Indian
02:24politician.
02:25So I am not surprised, because I had this inkling that there is attraction of South Indian film stars around
02:33North East.
02:34So this hasn't surprised me. But yes, I didn't anticipate that the numbers will go higher than South India itself.
02:42Yeah, I agree. That was really surprising. But the number of factors that you've listed for us, it kind of,
02:47you know, brings it all together.
02:48But do you think, Kaushik, that this is something that's actually, you know, something that will sustain?
02:53Let's say we hold our next survey in another six months from now. Do you think Vijay's numbers will go
02:58up further? That graph will rise?
03:01It depends on how he performs.
03:03So they are watching for his performance as a CM, as an administrator?
03:06Of course, of course. At the moment, there is a novelty factor. I mean, I don't think this generation has
03:11seen a film star becoming a CM.
03:15There were other chief ministers earlier from the South. But the current generation, if we talk about Gen.G or
03:23Gen.Alpha or youngsters, they haven't seen it.
03:25So there is a novelty factor. And then, as I mentioned, if you are talking particularly about North East, then
03:31the look and get up of Vijay, it's like pretty much like a Western politician.
03:37So that has an appeal among youngsters. You can't discount that. And I'm sure that that appeal is across India,
03:45not just restricted to North East of India.
03:47So people are watching him. And because there is a disillusionment, if you look at the MOTN poll, you will
03:55see that with the established political culture in India, the youngsters are not very happy with that.
04:00They want a change. Change doesn't mean from Mr. Modi to Rahul Gandhi, not individual change, but they want a
04:07change in the system, the way politics is practiced in India.
04:10And I believe somewhere Vijay, at the moment, we do not know how he will perform, whether his story would
04:17become like that of Arvind Kejriwal.
04:18But at the moment, people probably have hope from him. And if he performs 50% of what is expected
04:26out of him, his numbers will remain or may go up.
04:29But as I said, it depends on how he performs entirely on him.
04:34Okay. Mr. Simansi Raman and Mr. Rangaraj Pandey are with us also on this broadcast.
04:38Mr. Simansi Raman, you've been listening to what Yashwant Deshmukh and Kaushit Dekah have said.
04:43Were you a bit stunned, taken aback by those numbers of the MOTN survey, sir?
04:48No, no. I was not surprised at all.
04:50Because I've been seeing almost every day so many reels, which are, you know, from people in the north and
05:00in other parts of the country,
05:02talking about Talpati, Talpati, and saying that he's going to, you know, he has done this and he has done
05:08that.
05:09Most of it is fake news, but never mind.
05:11So obviously, there's an organized campaign that is going on to promote him in other parts of the country.
05:16I don't know who's funding it.
05:18I don't know from where this whole thing originates.
05:21But clearly, hundreds of influencers at the same time putting out a lot of fake news and promoting an individual.
05:29I refuse to believe it's happening organically or it's happening by itself.
05:34So clearly, something is going on.
05:35So you think it's manufactured, sir?
05:38Because, you know, also there's a lot of traction.
05:40And so when there's traction, people tend to fall into that, use it to go ahead and boost their own
05:45numbers.
05:45And that's why they'll constantly post about Vijay Talpati, as they call him.
05:50Yeah, yeah.
05:51So I think that definitely this is not organic.
05:55This is sort of manufactured to some extent.
05:58Now, to what extent is it manufactured?
06:00That I do not know.
06:01We'll have to wait and see.
06:02But this northeast thing, I don't think it's just the religion parts.
06:08Religion may have a role to play in his popularity in the northeast.
06:12But mind you, Akshita, for his popularity, he's basically a star of the south of Tamil Nadu, to some extent
06:18Kerala.
06:19And, you know, marginally in Andhra Pradesh and to some parts of Telugana.
06:24So for such a star to poll a higher percentage in the northeast than in the south, it makes zero
06:31sense at all.
06:32So the only possibility is that this campaign may have been more successful in northeastern states, maybe a larger proportion
06:42of Gen Z participated in those states or so on.
06:45But I don't think it's only the religious factor.
06:48Religion, yes, there is some extent the religion factor has to be kept into account.
06:52But first of all, he's totally unproven, Akshita.
06:57And most of those reels are spreading fake news.
07:02You know, that is what is of concern.
07:04They're not spreading factual information about what he has done.
07:08So I think that, yeah, go ahead.
07:10I agree, I agree that I've seen a lot of these fake news reels.
07:13But it's also beyond that, isn't it?
07:15The fact that, you know, you have a superstar turned CM, I think that itself has garnered a lot of
07:20attention, curiosity, which perhaps is turning into this kind of support, where people say, look, let's see what he's going
07:27to do.
07:28Let's take a chance.
07:29Let's give him an opportunity, which is what we saw play out in Tamil Nadu 10X, of course, of this
07:34particular sentiment.
07:35Mr. Rangaraj Pandey is also with us.
07:37Mr. Rangaraj Pandey, for the last few weeks, we've been seeing this campaign in Tamil Nadu itself, saying Vijay for
07:43PM.
07:44Ministers have said it, TVK leaders have said it, posters have been put up today.
07:48And that's what leads to questions about whether it's all being put together for 2029, sir.
07:54According to my understanding, Mr. Desmukh, sir, see voters' outcome might be about the popularity of the candidates, not might
08:03be of the whether they can win the 2029 election.
08:07We understand that Vijay is the most popular star, without any doubt.
08:11And he is not going to eat the BJP vote at the cost of PM Narendra Modi, but he is
08:16going to eat the vote of Congress Party, which was already tried and literally challenged by Amatmi Party as well
08:25as CJP.
08:25So, might be the third forces, which were trying by communist parties, the left parties, then later AAP, now CJP.
08:36People may think that AAP is not working, CJP is not going to work.
08:40So, let us try with Mr. Vijay.
08:42That might be the only reason.
08:43I see this as a popular one, that he is getting the third position, not that he can become a
08:48prime minister.
08:49And as everyone is surprised by the northeast vote, share of Mr. Vijay, I probably doubt that this might be
08:57the vote of northeast people working in Tamil Nadu.
09:00It might be there because...
09:01No, no.
09:02It's region-wise in the sense, sir, the survey happened in that region also.
09:06Yeah, it might be.
09:07So, northeast people are working hugely in Tamil Nadu, so they also might be in place.
09:12And I see the similarity, only one thing, that only after the election season, Mr. Vijay promoted himself, projected himself
09:20as Joseph Vijay.
09:21So, I have to strongly buy the fact that the Christian link between the northeast and the candidate, that might
09:29be the single point of thing which promoted him,
09:32because people are already tried and tired with Mr. Rahul Gandhi and tried and tired with Arvind K. Jarwal, and
09:38they have not at all tried with Abhichit Divya.
09:39So, this name, like from a film background, might be very interesting.
09:44And we have to check if the northeast is giving a highest number than South India.
09:50South India includes Tamil Nadu also.
09:52That doesn't mean in Tamil Nadu, Mr. Vijay is losing his popularity.
09:57If you decode this one into state-wise, Mr. Modi and Mr. Vijay might be in equal position in Tamil
10:04Nadu.
10:05But here, I am seeing that Mr. Vijay is declining in Tamil Nadu in South India than Northeast.
10:12So, this may give you a projection that Vijay is...
10:15I mean, Yashvam, do you want to take that?
10:18I will come to him later.
10:21So, it may give you a projection that Vijay is growing beyond Tamil Nadu.
10:26But we have to understand whether he is losing the ground in Tamil Nadu.
10:29Okay, fair enough.
10:30Yashvam, do you want to answer that?
10:31No, just pointing out that Mr. Vijay happens to be the second phenomenon.
10:37And Mr. Kaushik Dekha knows that.
10:39Sumant has been discussing that on the screen as well.
10:42Well, Yogi Adityanath also happens to be the one politician who is more popular outside his state than his own
10:48state.
10:48That happens.
10:49Because sometimes, sometimes the phenomenas become phenomena.
10:54You know, sometimes...
10:55Because you remember the day the counting got over,
11:00I guess the biggest headline would have been West Bengal,
11:03but Vijay got the similar headline everywhere across India.
11:07You know, as a phenomena, whether how it is happening, how it is taking through.
11:11You know, so sometimes we surprise ourselves.
11:14Sometimes we see things coming up.
11:16And this is the age of social media where people capture imagination by one single reel, one single act.
11:22And Vijay has won a state.
11:24I think what has happened here is that India has been a ground of always looking for that third angle
11:33somewhere.
11:34You know, it has been.
11:35For a long time, that third angle was absent in the name of Aam Admi party.
11:41It got up short to fame.
11:43Imagine, Arvind Kejriwal was the chief minister of Delhi, which controls only seven Lok Sabha seats.
11:49Yet, he always managed to have ten times more popularity than the chief minister of Tamil Nadu.
11:56But at that point of time, you know, be it Amma, be it Stalin.
12:01Because, because Amma Admi's presence was in Gujarat, in Goa, in Punjab, in all other North Indian states also, their
12:10presence were there.
12:13You see, what happens is that you punch way above your weight when your perception goes beyond the thing.
12:21You punch way above your state.
12:22The question is, the question we should be asking or raising is, is this sustainable?
12:29Or is it the honeymoon period of the social media campaign?
12:32Is it sustainable?
12:45If a person like Arvind Kejriwal, whose national rating were at one point of time, almost at par with Rahul
12:54Gandhi.
12:54Kaushik, you remember that, I mean, this was right after, I think, Punjab assembly election got over.
13:02His number, and if they went up and then it crashed down to one percent, then it's also a question,
13:09how long is it sustainable?
13:11Are people going to look at it as stardom?
13:14Or are at some point of time, people are going to weigh up what exactly is being delivered on the
13:20ground in Tamil Nadu?
13:21That is something, how much would be of the campaign?
13:25How much would be the actual performance?
13:27He has just entered.
13:29He has become a, he was a phenomenon on the screen.
13:33He has become a phenomenon on the political side.
13:36Let's just wait and watch.
13:38Let's just wait and watch.
13:39This is true.
13:40I think, Keshwant, you're right in saying it's a honeymoon period right now.
13:44There's no doubt about that.
13:45That is what I was saying.
13:47In that, Mr. Vijay may eat Rahul Gandhi's vote.
13:51As I already said, the people were trying to find out some third alternative.
13:55So we have also, we've done that comparison.
13:56If you look at our numbers from January 2026 to now, of the Mood of the Nation survey,
14:03you actually see that the Prime Minister's numbers come down at the cost of Vijay going up.
14:09So essentially, the anti-incumbency alternative narrative, which would have otherwise gone to Rahul Gandhi,
14:13has gone now to Vijay.
14:15So that is a comparison that gives you a sense of what's happening.
14:18Final question, Kaushik.
14:19Since, you know, you spoke about the popularity of Vijay in the Northeast,
14:23everyone's asking, is this something that will hold?
14:26So let's create a hypothetical situation here and indulge me for a moment.
14:29If Vijay were to, let's say, contest elections in the Northeast, would he succeed?
14:36There are local leaders in the Northeast.
14:39So if there is a Prime Ministerial candidate, and if there is a candidate from the Northeast,
14:44then Vijay would not succeed because there could be Konrad Sangma, there could be Dr. Himanta Viswa Sarma.
14:49So you have local leaders over there.
14:51But if Vijay is the option, and Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi are the options, then maybe, maybe.
14:59And the situation is like this.
15:01Six months later, what happens, we don't know.
15:03So I'm assuming you are asking me in today's context.
15:06Yes.
15:06Yes, he will have a great support over there because he's fresh.
15:10He's much like them, many of them.
15:14So I think he has a fair chance, provided election happens today.
15:19And let's not discount Prime Minister Narendra Modi is still very popular in Northeast also.
15:25It's not that Mr. Modi has lost all his popularity.
15:29Of course.
15:30So I see it will be a fight between Mr. Rahul Gandhi and Vijay, who captures the second highest position.
15:38Okay.
15:39So, I mean, a lot of ifs and buts.
15:41You know, if it happens today, if the situation is as it is, if you see the same players,
15:46only then could you perhaps see Vijay really making inroads.
15:49But 2029 is a far, far way off.
15:52A lot will change by then.
15:54This is like Yashwan Deshmukh put it, the honeymoon period for Vijay.
15:58There's curiosity, there's social media traction.
16:01Here's a superstar turned chief minister.
16:03And so the entire country right now is talking about him.
16:06Six months, one month down the line, you don't really know.
16:09One misstep and maybe the country could be talking about you for completely different reasons.
16:13But thank you very much, Mr. Sumansi Raman, Mr. Rangaraj Pandey, Kaushik Dekar and Yashwan Deshmukh
16:17for taking the time out and joining us on this broadcast.