- 20 hours ago
In a broadcast discussion anchored by Akshita Nandagopal, panellists analysed the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam's victory in the Tamil Nadu assembly by-polls. National spokesperson of the TVK Sathya Kumar credited the election results to the trust of the electorate in the governance model and leadership of Chief Minister Vijay, stating that 'people have a great trust on the leadership of honorable Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Thalapathy Vijay.' Political analyst Sanjeevi Sadagopan pointed out that the election results showed TVK actively capturing the political ground previously occupied by the AIADMK, shattering traditional caste alignments. Conversely, political analyst Sushil Rajkumar questioned the scale of the victory, arguing that narrow margins in by-elections indicate a decline in popularity rather than a sweeping mandate and accusing the ruling administration of political posturing and engineering resignations.
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00:00Sanjeevi Saragopan, political analyst, Sushil Rajkumar, political analyst.
00:04I'm Mr. Satya Kumar, national spokesperson of the TVK, joining us on this broadcast.
00:08First of all, Mr. Satya Kumar, congratulations.
00:10You know, you joined us on many shows on the Bible saying that, yes, the TVK will win this.
00:15Turns out you're right.
00:18Yes, Sakshita. And I know that you're also a fan of my leader, Honorable Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
00:23Oh, no, no, no. Sir, you are setting me up to be trolled.
00:26No, no, no. You are independent journalist. You do the devil's advocate work as well.
00:29But anyhow, all the people in, in fact, Sushil is also a fan of my leader, Honorable Chief Minister of
00:35Tamil Nadu.
00:36See the smile that he has.
00:39Elections are part and parcel of any democratic system, Akshita.
00:43And here in Bipol, we have won the election because people have a great trust on the leadership of Honorable
00:50Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Talabadi Vijay.
00:52The point here to be noted is, we are able to win this election because we were able to campaign.
00:58My leader is able to come to the rural parts of Tamil Nadu.
01:02In fact, we would have, if my leader would have come in April 2026, people like me would have won
01:09the election in the deep rooted rural villages in Tamil Nadu.
01:12So, that's the kind of response people have for the face of the leader.
01:17And even in this two constituency, it is the face of the leader that determined the success of the candidates
01:23who stood for the election.
01:25So, the trust has increased.
01:27Our governance model people are accepting.
01:30And they have great hope on the leadership of my leader, Honorable Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Talabadi Vijay.
01:37Okay. Sanjeevi, what do you make of today's result?
01:39Are you a Vijay fan?
01:42Since that's what we're starting off with.
01:44Yeah, of course, I'm also a Vijay fan.
01:46I've bought and bought up in Chennai.
01:47I've seen so many movies from my childhood.
01:50So, I've seen so much of movies.
01:51I'm a fan of him.
01:52But politics is absolutely a different game.
01:55But now I've become his political fan too.
01:59So, this election results, it's proved one thing, right?
02:02Like one, he is told he's going to win.
02:04Okay.
02:04And secondly, he also engineered a kind of narrative that will actually influence the result of the other two parties,
02:11right?
02:11He told, he was continuously failing the competitions between two parties.
02:15One is DMK and TVK, right?
02:17So, DMK landed second in both the seats, which are predominantly the DMK seats.
02:22And as he told, he was calling the DMK, ADMK, the Durasakfi, right?
02:26He was saying others, he was mentioning others, he did not take the name of ADMK anywhere.
02:30I think he took only once.
02:31So, they have pushed to third place.
02:33So, he's not only winning his own seat, but also trying to, you know, engineer how the other parties will
02:40perform the elections, right?
02:42That is actually the beauty of it, right?
02:44Like he was constantly killing and he's trying to replace the ADMK entirely by bringing the voters.
02:51In fact, he also told Dharapuram that MGI's voters should vote for me.
02:55So, all these things have apparently happened in this election is what we can see.
02:59And the polarization, which generally happens in the street like Dharapuram, where one dominant community vote for ADMK, that has
03:05been shattered this time, right?
03:07Like, so, despite the communists contesting alone, like even they could not create any kind of dent or impact.
03:14So, everything like, I think the TVK has managed it very well.
03:18And as Satya Kumar told, if not for the candidates, people have voted, given the band-aid to the Chief
03:25Minister's face, right?
03:26Yeah.
03:26So, the candidates also face a lot of feet on the ground when they, especially the Dharapuram, the candidates face
03:31a lot of feet, like whenever, wherever she went, because of the waiting camp.
03:34It didn't matter.
03:35Vijay came, campaigned, and so the vote came for TVK.
03:38That is what I'm trying to say.
03:39That is what I'm trying to say.
03:40You know, the rules of Tamil Nadu politics have been rewritten.
03:42There's no longer caste politics.
03:45You know, we used to speak about this dominant caste means this way it will swing.
03:48This is the symbol they've always been traditionally devoted to.
03:52That has completely gone out the door.
03:54There's no question of any loyalty based on caste community.
03:58Is that a good thing or a bad thing?
03:59Well, we will ultimately know.
04:01But I think what's good to also see is that there's that money power in an election also has come
04:06down.
04:07We saw this months ago in Tamil Nadu, and that holds true for this bipolar.
04:10As well, Mr. Sushil Rajkumar is with me also on this broadcast.
04:13Sushil, sir, you know, is this a case of sour grapes?
04:16I have seen a reaction that's come in from the DMK chief, M.K. Stalin,
04:20where once again he's gone back to the same narrative,
04:22referring to Chief Minister Vijay essentially as a real politician,
04:25saying, you know, he went on these colorful campaigns, did nothing for the people.
04:29The people have chosen, sir.
04:33Actually, this is not a massive victory for Mr. Vijay, as you all claim.
04:37I see this victory margin in both the by-elections compared to all other by-elections.
04:43This is the 48th time Tamil Nadu is witnessing by-elections.
04:4738 times the ruling party at that time won the elections.
04:51I see this result as the beginning of the end of Mr. Vijay's popularity.
04:57Remember, he is only four months old.
05:00He has got the massive victory in only June itself.
05:03Now, at that time, he was hyped that he came down from heaven
05:07and he is hyped as he is all-powerful
05:10and he commands all over popularity in Tamil Nadu, which is not true.
05:14In fact, Mr. Vijay has to go to the villages
05:17and drive tractors, eat chai and the roadshed shop
05:21and meet people for nearly whole day,
05:25for two days in two assembly segments.
05:27That's politics.
05:28You can't expect, you know, if he sat back in Chennai
05:31and watched the by-poll, then the DNK would have been critical,
05:34saying, oh, the chief minister has no time for these two seats.
05:39No, actually, that is politics.
05:40What I am saying is, Vijay is just a politician.
05:44No, Mr. Vijay is just a politician
05:46who has to do all the gimmicks and drama
05:50which played by other political parties.
05:52He is not different from all other parties.
05:54That's what I am trying to say.
05:56This election was forced on the people
05:58by the power-hungry Mr. Vijay.
06:01And these two assembly segments went to the elections
06:05because TVK purchased two MLA's from AAADMK.
06:09This message was taken by the opposition parties
06:14to the nook and corners of two assembly segments.
06:17If Mr. Vijay had come and such a respect and popularity
06:20in these two assembly segments,
06:21he should have won the elections at least by 50,000 margin.
06:25But it is not so.
06:26So, I see these things as a downfall for Mr. Vijay
06:30in just four months.
06:31I don't see any other chief minister losing popularity
06:34in just a short period of time.
06:36So, this is the reality of Mr. Vijay.
06:38Mr. Vijay has understood this reality.
06:40That is why he has went to the two assembly segments
06:43directly for himself to see what the people think about the government.
06:46He did not talk anything about the success of his government
06:50for the past four months.
06:52Okay.
06:52Mr. Satya Kumar, your response?
06:53That this wasn't such a big win after all.
06:56No.
06:56See, Akshita, the point to be noted here is
06:59both are rural constituencies.
07:01And rural constituency,
07:03people vote based on issue
07:05and people vote based on the trust.
07:07It is just not swing votes that has come here.
07:11People have increased their hope
07:12on the honourable chief minister of Tamil Nadu, Talabadi, Vijay.
07:15That has translated into a result
07:17which is a winning margin.
07:20And if you see,
07:21the vote share of the ADMK
07:24and also the vote share of the DMK
07:27in comparison with TVK has gone down.
07:30So, what we have to really look at is
07:32it is just not a swing votes that has moved to TVK.
07:35It is the trust that has got the votes of the people,
07:39that too from rural areas.
07:41And what I understand is
07:43in all the Booth analysis
07:44and when I check with the people,
07:46they could be able to predict that
07:48women have voted in large numbers to TVK
07:51is one of the analysis that they are able to do
07:54by doing a feedback survey
07:56after the winning of the election.
07:59So, women are voting in numbers.
08:01This is the same trend MGR had.
08:03See, the same trend MGR had
08:05and the same trend will continue for TVK.
08:07So, then Mr. Satyakumar,
08:08are you attempting to claim the position
08:10that the twin leaf symbol had,
08:12that the AADMK had in Tamil Nadu?
08:15Actually, we are not claiming.
08:17See, first thing we need to understand is
08:19AADMK is always driven by charismatic leadership.
08:22Since 2017,
08:23when Mr. Yadapati K. Paniswamy
08:25took over the party,
08:28he was not charismatic.
08:29He was not even meeting his own MLAs
08:32and his own party leaders.
08:34So, he has been denying appointments
08:36and he was not that charismatic
08:37to attract party cadres as well.
08:40So, Honorable Chief of Tamil Nadu,
08:42Talabadi Vijay's face,
08:44being the face of the TVK,
08:45and people are moving towards
08:47his charismatic leadership.
08:49Accordingly,
08:49two leaves now,
08:50which was actually built based on charisma,
08:53is losing its relevance
08:54because people are moving towards
08:56Honorable Chief of Tamil Nadu,
08:57Talabadi Vijay.
08:57That's the only reason.
08:59It's the leadership crisis of AADMK
09:02and charismatic leadership of TVK.
09:05That's the reason that AADMK is nowhere now.
09:08And by the way,
09:10it is an overestimation of himself,
09:13of EPS,
09:14that has led the party to this level.
09:16And of course,
09:17our party's leadership and governance model
09:20has attracted
09:21because of the face of the leader.
09:22You know, explain this to me, Sanjeevi.
09:24How the TVK right now
09:26is eating into
09:27what was the traditional vote pack
09:28of the AADMK?
09:29Sure, there's a leadership vacuum.
09:30But it's interesting
09:31if you see the campaign
09:32how Chief Minister Vijay
09:33referred to the DMK
09:35but never named the AADMK.
09:37And yet,
09:38it is in this AADMK stronghold
09:39that the TVK has done so well,
09:41claiming the legacy of MGR,
09:43eating into
09:44what was otherwise
09:45a traditional vote pack.
09:47See, I think
09:48the TVK has removed
09:50two leaves from AADMK, right?
09:52We just said earlier,
09:53they're taken out of leaves, right?
09:55So, he has removed
09:56one leaf MGR,
09:57the second leaf Jailanta, right?
09:58So, it's converted
09:59into the whistle right now.
10:01And it is a perception, right?
10:02Like, wherever you see
10:03Vijay coming in a campaign,
10:05he's trying to set the narrative,
10:06okay, I'm the next big face, right?
10:07Like, he's trying to
10:09just copy the DNA of AADMK.
10:11Like, even though
10:12the spokesperson,
10:13the leaders were sitting
10:16on the TV channels,
10:17especially Tamil channels,
10:18most of the people
10:19are from the AADMK, right?
10:20They are sitting and attacking
10:21the DMK party
10:22and other opposition
10:23and talking in favor
10:25of the TVK.
10:27So, it's subconsciously
10:28creating some kind of
10:30an imagery,
10:31okay, this is the actual ADMK
10:32and ADMK is not anymore.
10:34Like, he is,
10:35TVK is actually
10:36the actual person
10:37who can actually
10:38defeat the DMK.
10:39So, that kind of image
10:40or the imagery
10:43has been set
10:43in the minds of people, right?
10:45Like, even...
10:46No, so the AIA-DMK
10:47by itself
10:48is a political giant.
10:49If the TVK
10:50and Vijay has already
10:51proved his worth,
10:53now, if he manages
10:53to also swallow
10:54the AIA-DMK,
10:55that creates a monster
10:56that the DMK,
10:58Mr. Sushil Rajkumar,
10:59will struggle to be
11:00going forward.
11:00You know, you put forward
11:01a narrative of anti-incumbency,
11:03you put forward
11:04a narrative
11:04that Vijay is a real
11:05politician,
11:06none of it worked.
11:08He's got to connect
11:09with the people
11:09irrespective of whether
11:10he was a superstar.
11:13No, I'm not saying
11:14he's not a superstar.
11:16I'm not saying
11:16that he's facing
11:17anti-incumbency.
11:18I'm saying
11:19that Vijay is just
11:20a politician.
11:21He's not as hyped
11:23by people like you
11:25that he's just
11:26ascended from heaven
11:26and he's here
11:28to save Tamil Nadu.
11:29It's not like...
11:30Sir, I haven't used
11:32any of those words,
11:33by the way.
11:33I haven't used
11:34any of those words,
11:35but on a day
11:36when he's won
11:37two by-pulls
11:38against two parties
11:39that have ruled
11:39for decades together,
11:41you know,
11:41one time,
11:42one time the DMK
11:43suggested that
11:44this was a fluke win.
11:45The second time also
11:46it can't be the case.
11:50No, actually,
11:52TVK is a ruling party.
11:53I expect TVK
11:54to win
11:55these two assembly segments.
11:56I already told
11:58many channels
11:58that the two
11:59assembly segments
12:00will be TVKs.
12:02I don't doubt
12:03their victory,
12:03but the victory margin,
12:05you see,
12:05it's not that
12:06Vijay is commanding
12:07so much popularity
12:08in Tamil Nadu.
12:09The victory margin
12:10should be at least
12:1130,000 or 40,000
12:13or 50,000
12:13to claim that
12:14Vijay is commanding
12:15so much popularity
12:16in Tamil Nadu.
12:17But it is not so.
12:18When Jayalda Madam
12:19was in chief minister
12:20and she was facing
12:21by-election,
12:22she won all the
12:22by-election
12:23by more than
12:2340,000 won.
12:24DMK also won like that.
12:26But you remember
12:27one thing.
12:28Vijay is only
12:29four months old.
12:30He has won
12:31the elections
12:31in June only.
12:32Now we are
12:33only in October.
12:34But the victory margin
12:36is very low.
12:37So I see this
12:38as a downfall
12:39of Mr. Vijay's popularity
12:40and this is the beginning
12:41of the end
12:42of Mr. Vijay.
12:43This is the truth.
12:44You will see
12:45in the meantime,
12:46in the coming days,
12:47you will see
12:47that people
12:48raise their voice
12:49against Mr. Vijay's
12:51inactive administration
12:53in the affairs
12:56concerning the state
12:56because he is
12:57taking many measures
12:58which are against
12:59people's mandate.
13:01People just believe him.
13:02I don't deny that.
13:03But what he is doing
13:04in Patanambakam
13:05is not
13:07matching to what
13:08he claims that he is
13:10because he is doing
13:11what people don't want.
13:11But these issues
13:12already existed, sir.
13:13It hasn't happened now.
13:14It happened before voting.
13:16So they very well knew
13:17that this is where
13:18the chief minister
13:19stands on these issues.
13:22No, the Patanambakam issue
13:24was created
13:25by Mr. Vijay only.
13:26All other issues also,
13:27Mr. Vijay is not
13:28showing any interest
13:29in governance.
13:30That is our accusation
13:31against Mr. Vijay.
13:32That is why
13:33Mr. Vijay,
13:34he himself directly
13:35went to campaign
13:36for two days.
13:37It's very unhaired for
13:39because in the
13:39assembly generalization
13:40also,
13:40he never went to,
13:41at least I think
13:42he went to
13:43some 17
13:44assembly constituencies.
13:46It was just
13:46five, six days
13:47only he went
13:48because he is not
13:49expecting such a
13:50big victory
13:50for his party.
13:51Now he has
13:52a pressure
13:56to at least
13:57maintain that one.
13:58Now he has
13:58only two
13:59assembly segments.
14:00Now he is only
14:01commanding
14:02109 only.
14:03He has not
14:03attained the majority.
14:04So why he
14:05wants to attain
14:06majority?
14:06Because he claims
14:07he is a
14:08Thuviyasakti.
14:08Let him run
14:10the government
14:11with 109 MLS.
14:13Let the government
14:14fall.
14:15Let Mr. Vijay
14:15go to the people
14:16and tell the
14:17people that I
14:18tried to run
14:19the government.
14:20The opposition
14:20parties did not
14:21allow me to run
14:22the government.
14:23Now I am
14:23standing before
14:23you.
14:24Give me justice.
14:25That is what
14:25Mr. Vijay is
14:26expected to do.
14:27But Mr. Vijay is
14:28indulging in
14:29horse trading.
14:30This is against
14:31the nature in
14:32Tamil Nadu.
14:32This is unhaired
14:33war in Tamil Nadu.
14:34Mr. Satya Kumar,
14:34this is a constant
14:35criticism that comes
14:36up.
14:37The DNK chief
14:38M.K.
14:39Stalin has posted
14:40about saying that
14:40this bipolar
14:41is necessitated
14:42because of
14:42horse trading.
14:44So there is
14:44no horse trading
14:45because the
14:46MLA's
14:47voluntarily resign
14:48and they come
14:49for the
14:49charismatic
14:50leadership of
14:50my leader
14:51Honorable
14:52Chief
14:52Minister of
14:52Tamil Nadu
14:52Talabadi
14:53Vijay.
14:53It is a
14:54voluntary
14:54resignation.
14:56And many
14:56could also
14:57resign.
14:58There is no
14:59bar in the
15:00law.
15:01Neither the
15:01representative
15:02people act
15:02nor the
15:03constitution of
15:03India
15:04bars are
15:05representative
15:05from resigning
15:06from one
15:07party and
15:08coming and
15:08contesting another
15:09party.
15:09So what is
15:11an horse trading?
15:11First of all,
15:12Mr. M.K.
15:13Stalin should
15:13understand.
15:14He keeps
15:15saying everything
15:15is an horse
15:15trading.
15:16There are
15:17instances within
15:17the DMK,
15:18there are
15:18instances within
15:19the ADMK when
15:19people left the
15:21party and joined
15:21their party and
15:22then recontested.
15:23I can show you
15:23multiple examples
15:24across India.
15:25So that does not
15:27alligate saying it
15:27is an horse
15:28trading.
15:28It is a
15:29voluntarily they
15:30give up
15:32resignation and
15:33they come here
15:33and we accommodate
15:34them because they
15:37come to our
15:38party because of
15:39the party's
15:40success and
15:41postpone also.
15:42It is their
15:43liberty.
15:44So representatives
15:44liberty that
15:45they are
15:45resigning and
15:46coming here.
15:47So just the
15:48people allegating
15:49saying that it is
15:50an horse trading,
15:51it is only an
15:52allegation which
15:53can never ever
15:55be taken up in
15:56the court of law
15:56as well.
15:57But do you
15:57think,
15:59Sanjeevi,
16:00you know looking
16:00at this right now
16:01the situation,
16:02what it means is
16:02also that the
16:03TVK's numbers
16:04go up.
16:05They are still
16:05of course in
16:06need of many
16:06more to actually
16:08have these kind
16:09of bipoles to
16:10win these seats
16:10to be able to
16:11be on a
16:12majority on their
16:13own.
16:13But do you
16:14see now more
16:15leaders from the
16:16AIATMK switching
16:17over to the TVK
16:18that this will
16:18now open the
16:19floodgates?
16:21Just a small
16:21response to
16:22Sushil sir,
16:23like he was
16:24talking about the
16:24Patanabakum issue,
16:25it's so naive to
16:26believe that Patanabakum
16:26is going to
16:27impose these two
16:28elections, right?
16:28It's not even
16:29fisheries area.
16:30So it doesn't have
16:31any connection with
16:31Patanabakum.
16:32And secondly,
16:33people are not
16:34going to remember
16:34what is the
16:35vote difference,
16:36right?
16:36People are going
16:36to remember who
16:37won the election.
16:38Like if I ask
16:39him what was the
16:40margin difference
16:41between the
16:41Congress and
16:43the other
16:44candidate in the
16:45Erode election,
16:46Erode by-poll
16:47election, like
16:47during the
16:48DMK agenda,
16:48you will not
16:49remember.
16:49Like in 2016,
16:51RK Nagar,
16:51that was the
16:52main election.
16:52He will not
16:53remember what is
16:53the margin,
16:54right?
16:54Yeah, of course,
16:55like who is
16:56going to win
16:56matters, right?
16:58And coming back
16:59to the point,
17:00like I think the
17:02five AC by-elections
17:04are going to happen
17:04in the month of
17:05December, right?
17:05Like in Perindu
17:06Rai, this is
17:07Virali Malai and
17:08one more.
17:09Okay.