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Vladimir Putin’s high-profile visit to Iturup (Etorofu) Island in the Southern Kurils has reignited a decades-old territorial dispute with Tokyo, sparking severe diplomatic fallout. According to The Guardian's Coverage of the Kuril Islands Conflict, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi condemned the move as "absolutely unacceptable," leading both capitals to summon respective ambassadors. While Moscow aims to project naval power across the Sea of Okhotsk and signal strategic alignment with Beijing, reporting from Al Jazeera's Diplomatic Coverage highlights that the provocation risks backfiring by incentivizing Tokyo to deepen its security support and military material transfers to Ukraine.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Putin Visits Disputed Kuril Islands Near Japan
01:04 - Japan Summons Russian Ambassador Over Kuril Dispute
02:15 - Why Russia Occupies 4 Northern Territories Islands
03:30 - Russian Pacific Fleet Secures Sea of Okhotsk
04:51 - China Buys 1.25 Million Barrels Russian Oil Daily
06:11 - Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline Negotiations Stall
07:32 - Chinese Influence Creeps Into Russian Far East
08:53 - Kuril Islands Provide China Access to Pacific
10:14 - Japan Pledges 20 Billion Dollars Aid Ukraine
11:35 - Japan Considers Exporting Patriot Missiles to Ukraine
12:39 - Will Japan Supply Lethal Weapons to Ukraine?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
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SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/uwVCZ0HM
Vladimir Putin’s high-profile visit to Iturup (Etorofu) Island in the Southern Kurils has reignited a decades-old territorial dispute with Tokyo, sparking severe diplomatic fallout. According to The Guardian's Coverage of the Kuril Islands Conflict, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi condemned the move as "absolutely unacceptable," leading both capitals to summon respective ambassadors. While Moscow aims to project naval power across the Sea of Okhotsk and signal strategic alignment with Beijing, reporting from Al Jazeera's Diplomatic Coverage highlights that the provocation risks backfiring by incentivizing Tokyo to deepen its security support and military material transfers to Ukraine.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Putin Visits Disputed Kuril Islands Near Japan
01:04 - Japan Summons Russian Ambassador Over Kuril Dispute
02:15 - Why Russia Occupies 4 Northern Territories Islands
03:30 - Russian Pacific Fleet Secures Sea of Okhotsk
04:51 - China Buys 1.25 Million Barrels Russian Oil Daily
06:11 - Power of Siberia 2 Pipeline Negotiations Stall
07:32 - Chinese Influence Creeps Into Russian Far East
08:53 - Kuril Islands Provide China Access to Pacific
10:14 - Japan Pledges 20 Billion Dollars Aid Ukraine
11:35 - Japan Considers Exporting Patriot Missiles to Ukraine
12:39 - Will Japan Supply Lethal Weapons to Ukraine?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/uwVCZ0HM
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NewsTranscript
00:01At this point, Putin is like a down-on-his-luck boxer, just looking for one big fight, one last
00:07payday, to make everything all right again.
00:09That's the only reason we can find for why Russia's leader decided that now, while he is embroiled in the
00:15war in Ukraine, would be a good time to pick a fight with Japan.
00:18Putin decided to visit disputed islands, and in doing so, he reignited a border war that has simmered under the
00:25surface for decades.
00:26Japan isn't happy.
00:28The Japanese bear has been poked once more, and this time, Putin may be getting more than he bargained for,
00:34as he tries everything that he can think of to make Russia a geopolitical power once more.
00:39On August 13th, Putin crawled out of his bunker and took a trip.
00:42Russia's president didn't emerge back into the real world to do anything that might actually help the Russian people, who
00:48are increasingly suffering due to Ukraine bringing the war that Putin started back to Russia.
00:53No, Putin doesn't care about such trifling concerns.
00:56Rather, Russia's leader decided that August 13th would be the perfect date for him to go on a little trip
01:02to what Russia calls Il-Turup Island, and what Japan calls Eritofu.
01:06That island is the largest of those that make up the southern Kurils, and all of these islands have been
01:11occupied by Russia since the end of World War II.
01:15On the surface, there doesn't seem to be a problem here.
01:17Putin just visited Russian territory, right?
01:19Well, not exactly.
01:21Russia may occupy the Kurils, but Japan has disputed that occupation for decades.
01:26This wasn't some simple visit for Putin.
01:28It amounted to a conscious decision to poke at Japan.
01:32It was meant to remind Japan that Russia not only occupies, but intends to maintain control over the Kurils for
01:38a long time.
01:39With this single visit, Putin has reignited tensions that lay dormant and triggered a series of events that have Japan
01:46on edge, could reinforce China's presence in the Pacific region, and may eventually have an impact on Russia's invasion of
01:52Ukraine.
01:53But we'll be getting to all of that.
01:54Japan isn't happy about what Putin just did, though it didn't react with white-hot rage.
01:59That isn't the Japanese way.
02:01Instead, Japan's Prime Minister, Sanai Takeuchi, labelled Putin's actions as absolutely unacceptable, followed by summoning the Russian ambassador in Tokyo
02:10for what The Guardian calls a dressing down.
02:13Russia countered by claiming that Japan was making unfounded claims on its territory in the Kurils.
02:18Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, did some summoning of his own, calling on the Japanese ambassador in Russia to pay
02:24him a visit.
02:25Interestingly, that ambassador didn't reply immediately.
02:28The observer says that time was taken, likely to discuss the approach with officials back in Tokyo, before the ambassador
02:34made their way to Lavrov for a 20-minute discussion.
02:37What all of this tells us is that the southern Kurils situation is far more complicated than Putin wants it
02:42to appear.
02:43To understand why, we need to dig a little deeper into what the Kurils actually are.
02:48The Kurils are a series of islands that stretch for around 1,200 kilometers, spanning from the northeast of Hokkaido,
02:55which is in Japan, to Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula.
02:58All told, 56 islands are counted among the Kurils, with the southernmost being just 4 kilometers away from Hokkaido.
03:05So for Japan, these islands aren't part of some far-flung cluster lying somewhere off in the Pacific.
03:10They are right on Japan's doorstep.
03:12And it's the four Kuril islands closest to Japan, which include the one that Putin visited, that are potential flashpoints
03:19for a brewing battle between Russia and Japan.
03:22These four islands are disputed because of events that date back to World War II.
03:26Toward the end of that conflict, Soviet soldiers seized the islands, which Japan refers to as the Northern Territories.
03:32Such things are common in war, of course, but the tensions arise from what came after World War II ended.
03:37In 1951, Japanese representatives headed to San Francisco to sign a peace treaty, in which they renounced ownership of the
03:44Kurils to Russia.
03:46The only exceptions Japan made were the four islands in this long chain that are in the Northern Territories, and
03:51basically right on top of Japan's borders.
03:54Japan wanted to keep those islands.
03:56That's where the problem started.
03:57The Soviet Union chose not to sign the treaty, and these four islands have been disputed ever since.
04:02From that, we have some much-needed context that highlights the gravity of what Putin just did.
04:08Japan's response may have been understated, but make no mistake, there was genuine anger behind Sanai Takeichi's words.
04:14Putin visiting the particular island that he headed to on August 13th is a very intentional slap in Japan's face.
04:20And that slap was delivered at a time when Putin should be focusing on the Ukraine war and the impact
04:26that war is having on his own people.
04:28So we come to the obvious question, why visit the Southern Kurils now?
04:32There are two answers to this question, one strategic, and the other related to neither Russia nor Japan, but to
04:39a third player that Russia is desperate to appease, China.
04:43Starting with the strategic element, Russia wants to exercise control over its Southern Kurils for more than just having something
04:49to hold over Japan.
04:50These islands are important because of their location.
04:53The Kurils, as a whole, are key to Russia's Pacific fleet.
04:56They serve as a point of embarkment for Russian warships, as well as functioning as a natural barrier between the
05:02Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Okhotsk,
05:04which the observer says is a patch of water that Russia also uses as a location for its second strike
05:09nuclear deterrent in the Pacific region.
05:11For Putin, full control over the Kurils, including the four disputed islands, strengthens this deterrent, as well as Russia's Pacific
05:18position.
05:19The fact that the closest of these islands to Japan is just four kilometers away from Hokkaido also isn't lost
05:25on Putin.
05:26If Russia holds that island, it can pose a constant threat to Japan.
05:31Putin wants to have that threat.
05:32Japan has supported Ukraine since Putin launched his invasion,
05:35and Russia is more than happy to hold islands, legitimately or otherwise, that it can use to intimidate Japan.
05:41There is also an economic reason why Russia wants to exercise control over these islands.
05:47Ownership of the Kurils also gives whoever holds the islands ownership over the waters that surround them.
05:52Under current maritime law, every nation has the right to establish the waters around its land as territorial sea up
05:59to a distance of 12 nautical miles.
06:01There are also exclusive economic zones, or EEZs, to consider.
06:06An EEZ is an area of sea or ocean that typically extends up to 200 nautical miles from a nation's
06:12coast.
06:13Within that EEZ, a nation has jurisdiction over living and non-living resources.
06:18This typically amounts to sovereign rights related to exploring, conserving, managing, and exploiting natural resources,
06:24and can even extend to establishing artificial islands and building infrastructure.
06:29With an island chain, as long as the Kurils, comes a whole lot of control over water,
06:34allowing Russia to exercise fishing rights, exploit whatever natural resources might be in the waters surrounding the Kurils.
06:41However, Russia doesn't seem too concerned about the economic aspect.
06:45It's something that could be used against Japan if Russia sees fit.
06:48However, Russia has also generally allowed Japan to fish in the waters around the southern Kurils.
06:53So, this territorial aspect is more a nice card to have in the pocket than the true reason why Putin
06:58decided to pay his little visit.
07:00There is something bigger at play.
07:02Still, we can't simply ignore the strategic element of Putin's visit.
07:06Russia and Japan still haven't signed a formal treaty to end World War II because of the four southern Kuril
07:12islands.
07:13Even as Russia and Japan tried to normalize diplomatic relations in the wake of World War II,
07:18these islands have been a bone of contention.
07:21Point where former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared in 2019
07:25that Japan would never sign a full peace treaty with Russia until the issue is resolved.
07:30By making his visit, Putin has basically just put himself on the front line of a border dispute that has
07:36existed for decades.
07:37It's a deliberate provocation.
07:39It's an assertion of Russian sovereignty that doesn't officially exist on islands that are part of a chain where Russia
07:45has installed ground forces,
07:47air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and a whole host of naval facilities and military infrastructure.
07:53In short, Putin's visit was a threat to Japan.
07:56However, the threat was more of an added bonus than the main purpose of Putin's trip.
08:01Russia's leader is actually far more interested in something else that the southern Kurils offer,
08:05a chance to build close ties with China.
08:07But before we dig into that aspect of the visit, this is a reminder that you're watching The Military Show.
08:12We make videos to explain how power moves and explore geopolitical consequences.
08:18If you're getting insight from our channel, don't forget to subscribe and enable notifications so you don't miss what we
08:24have coming next.
08:26There is some suggestion that Putin's visit to the southern Kurils is a direct response to a Japanese white paper
08:32that has identified Russia as an acute threat.
08:35That doesn't seem to be the case.
08:37Though that white paper came out just a few days before Putin's visit,
08:40Russia had been carrying out naval drills in the region before the paper's publication.
08:44Those drills are ongoing, with the most recent involving training strikes close to the southern Kurils.
08:50So this visit wasn't about a response either.
08:52Ultimately, it was all about China.
08:54For China, the Kurils hold a different purpose.
08:57Access through these islands offers China unfettered passage into Pacific waters,
09:02along with serving China's Arctic ambitions.
09:05In the case of the former, one of the reasons why China focuses so intently on Taiwan
09:09is that control over that territory also offers greater access to Pacific waters.
09:14If China happens to be allied with the nation that holds the Kurils, or even better,
09:18can essentially make that nation subservient to Beijing,
09:22then a war with Taiwan isn't necessarily needed.
09:24The Kurils can serve as the same sort of Pacific gateway that China is looking for.
09:29This is where Russia enters the equation.
09:32And the impact of all of this on the Ukraine war starts to become clearer.
09:36Russia has spent every day since Putin launched his invasion making concessions to China.
09:42Putin had to.
09:43When the collective West started slapping Russia with sanctions,
09:46especially on Russian oil sales, China became a lifeline.
09:50It is far from the only nation willing to buy Russia's oil,
09:53but certainly the one with the most clout and financial muscle.
09:56For four and a half years, China has been Russia's main oil lifeline,
10:01enabling Putin to keep money pouring into the Kremlin's war chest through oil sales.
10:05And that unbalanced relationship continues to this day.
10:08China still buys around half of the oil that Russia sells,
10:12as it did in June.
10:13China is also Russia's leading buyer of coal,
10:17its second largest buyer of oil products,
10:19and also one of Russia's largest buyers of both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas.
10:24In August, China's purchases of Russia's seaborne crude oil
10:28are estimated to amount to about 1.25 million barrels per day,
10:33Reuters reports.
10:34Russia wants more from China.
10:39For instance, Russia has spent the last few years trying to convince China to work on a
10:43joint gas pipeline project, named Power of Siberia 2.
10:47That pipeline would open the door for Russia to sell even more of its gas to China.
10:51Only China isn't biting.
10:53The project has barely gotten off the ground,
10:55because China knows that it's negotiating from a position of power,
10:58and it wants Russia to make as many concessions as it can force Putin to accept,
11:02before it will consider working on the project.
11:05It's all about doing what's best for China,
11:07and Russia, still stuck in the quagmire of its Ukraine war,
11:10has no other options.
11:11If it wants to sell off its resources to China,
11:14then it has to make the types of concessions that China demands.
11:18Concessions that may involve the Kuril Islands.
11:21China has been taking advantage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to make some interesting moves.
11:25For instance, Chinese maps used in 2023 used some interesting naming conventions,
11:31as they used the Chinese names for several Russian regions in the Far East,
11:35including Khabarovsk and Vladivostok.
11:38This wasn't accidental.
11:40It was an indication of China's creeping influence into Russian territory,
11:44which has been made possible because of the war in Ukraine,
11:46and Putin's resulting desperation to keep Chinese oil money flowing.
11:50Perhaps we're now seeing something similar in the Kurils.
11:54On the surface, Putin's island visit appears to be about projecting power over Japan.
11:58But behind the veneer lies the real reason why Putin headed to the southern Kurils.
12:03He needed to prove to China that he is still a loyal lapdog who will work in Beijing's interests.
12:08And right now, minimizing Japan and potentially opening up new Pacific and Arctic trade routes
12:13is very much in China's interests.
12:15Or to put it much more simply, if Japan holds the four disputed islands,
12:20China knows that it has no chance of controlling them.
12:22But as long as Russia is exerting its supposed control,
12:25China knows that all of the leverage that it has over Russia
12:28could one day be used to finesse those islands out of Russia's hands.
12:32There's also a strategic element of all of this for China.
12:36Right now, the Kurils are perhaps one of the biggest weak points in China's Pacific trade strategy,
12:41as well as any future plans it may have for Taiwan.
12:44Those islands being under Russian control serves Beijing well for now.
12:47A friend holding the Kurils essentially acts as China's Pacific release valve,
12:52preventing naval blockades put in place elsewhere from having their full effect.
12:56Again, we come back to Putin as China's lapdog.
12:59His visit to Eterofu was an unprovoked attempt at intimidation.
13:03But it may not have been a visit that Putin would have made without China's influence.
13:07He has a war with Ukraine to deal with after all.
13:10But Putin had to make the trip to show China that the Kurils are still under Russian control.
13:15And as long as that's the case, Russia is still useful to China,
13:19which means China will continue to buy Russian oil.
13:22Oh, how the mighty have fought.
13:24We wonder how Putin feels knowing that Russia plays second fiddle to China on the international stage.
13:30Finally, let's come back to the point we've touched on several times already,
13:34which is that Russia is still engulfed in the Ukraine war.
13:36Putin visiting the southern Kurils now is a mistake that could hurt Russia in the long run,
13:41all to appease Russia's Chinese paymasters.
13:43Why is it a mistake?
13:45Japan is far from some puny nation that Russia can kick around.
13:49It's a powerhouse in the process of awakening from a pacifistic slumber,
13:53and Putin's latest attempt at intimidation could prompt Japan into furthering its support of Ukraine.
13:59Even if we take away the China factor,
14:01Putin heading to disputed territory in a clear attempt to exert Russia's claim
14:05smacks of a leader who has his eyes on more than just Ukraine.
14:08Putin wants more, which is a point that Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made repeatedly over the years.
14:15Back in 2024, Zelenskyy was telling the world that Putin won't stop at Ukraine,
14:20highlighting the Baltic states as potential next targets.
14:23Fast forward to 2026 and Zelenskyy was actively claiming that Putin had started World War 3.
14:28I believe that Putin has already started it.
14:31The question is how much territory he will be able to seize and how to stop him.
14:35Russia wants to impose on the world a different way of life
14:38and change the lives people have chosen for themselves,
14:40Zelenskyy told the BBC at the time.
14:43Japan would have been paying attention to those words.
14:46Putin's southern Kurils visit proves Zelenskyy right.
14:49Russia has interests it's trying to follow outside of Ukraine,
14:52and Japan is now one of the points of focus.
14:54For Japan, this visit could be a flashpoint that prompts it to provide even more aid to Ukraine,
14:59and perhaps even to take a step that it's yet to take.
15:02Japan's aid has mostly come in the form of financial assistance,
15:05humanitarian aid, and funds for reconstruction,
15:07with Japan having pledged around $20 billion by the beginning of 2026.
15:12The one thing that Japan hasn't provided to Ukraine is lethal weaponry.
15:16It has started spending money on military equipment,
15:19having invested almost $15 million into the Pearl program as of May 29th,
15:24but that money went to non-lethal equipment rather than weapons.
15:27But now, with Russia threatening its borders, Japan may look to do more.
15:31Could we see Japan head down the path of providing lethal arms to Ukraine?
15:35There are signs that this could happen.
15:38Also in May, Reuters reported that Japan's decision to ease certain export rules
15:42related to what the country can sell was seen by Ukraine as a potential pathway
15:46to getting its hands on Japanese weapons.
15:48There are also loopholes that can be exploited.
15:51For instance, South Korea has similar rules to Japan
15:53when it comes to sending lethal weapons to Ukraine.
15:56However, there are no laws saying those weapons can't be sold to other countries
15:59that might just happen to then donate or sell those weapons to Ukraine.
16:03Even if Japan isn't willing to exploit that loophole,
16:06it could also help Ukraine defensively,
16:08such as by providing Patriot missile interceptors.
16:11Japan has a large stockpile of these missiles,
16:13and an argument can be made that helping Ukraine with its air defense
16:16doesn't amount to sending lethal weapons to the country.
16:19The point we're making here is that Japan could be doing a lot more for Ukraine than it currently is.
16:24If Putin keeps poking the Japanese bear,
16:26he may create a situation where Japan starts doing more.
16:29It could start sending weapons and offering more direct support than it had before,
16:33as it knows that weakening Russia and Ukraine
16:36amounts to weakening Russia's attempts to intimidate Japan by the Kurils.
16:40Whether by his choice or China's, Putin has made a grave mistake with his Kurils visit.
16:45Japan's response has been understated publicly.
16:48But behind the scenes,
16:50this single visit could end up changing the entire complexion of the war.
16:54Somehow, Putin keeps on making mistakes that draw others into a war
16:58that is supposed to center on Ukraine.
17:00Japan isn't the only nation that's been affected.
17:03Poland is now talking about doing something so radical
17:05that it would be a true gut punch to Putin.
17:08Find out what that is by watching our video.
17:10But before you go,
17:11this channel is built by real people
17:13who care about getting the story right.
17:15Subscribe,
17:16join the conversation below,
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17:24And thank you, as always, for watching.
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