Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea is facing its biggest challenge yet. In this video, we examine Ukraine’s claimed control of the Black Sea, how drones and precision strikes have crippled Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and why this could reshape the war. We also explore the strategic importance of Crimea, Russia’s logistical struggles, and what these developments could mean for the conflict’s next phase. Watch until the end for a full breakdown and analysis.
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine Black Sea Strategy Reclaims 461,000 Square Kilometers
04:03 - Sinking Russia Moskva Cruiser With Neptune Missiles
05:18 - Ukraine Drones Destroy 26 Russian Black Sea Fleet Ships
07:35 - Why Occupied Crimea Is Putin's Next Major Target
11:00 - Ukraine Logistics Campaign Attacks Kerch Bridge Supply Lines
13:56 - Is Russia Evacuating Officials and Occupiers From Crimea?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/enaKeEUC
⏱️ CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Ukraine Black Sea Strategy Reclaims 461,000 Square Kilometers
04:03 - Sinking Russia Moskva Cruiser With Neptune Missiles
05:18 - Ukraine Drones Destroy 26 Russian Black Sea Fleet Ships
07:35 - Why Occupied Crimea Is Putin's Next Major Target
11:00 - Ukraine Logistics Campaign Attacks Kerch Bridge Supply Lines
13:56 - Is Russia Evacuating Officials and Occupiers From Crimea?
Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join
#militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis
#themilitaryshow
SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/enaKeEUC
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Russia has just lost its largest area of the entire Ukraine war so far.
00:05No, we're not talking about land. Ukraine hasn't started a massive counter-offensive
00:09that has swept Russian forces out of the occupied eastern and southern regions.
00:13That's a plan for later. No, the area that Russia hasn't lost isn't solid. It's liquid.
00:19The Black Sea belongs to Ukraine, which is a vital victory that sets up everything else
00:25that Ukraine wants to achieve in its defense against Russia. The occupied territories are
00:29a little safer, but far more importantly, Russia losing the Black Sea sets the stage for something
00:35even bigger, the fall of illegally occupied Crimea. On July 5th, no less than Ukrainian
00:41President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine now has total control over the Black Sea.
00:46The naval forces of Ukraine, together with components of the defense and security forces,
00:51have done what many considered impossible. Russia has lost the Black Sea, Ukraine's president declared,
00:56as he pointed to the absolute crippling of the Black Sea fleet by a brilliant Ukrainian strategy
01:01that has made it too dangerous for the remaining ships in that fleet to sail the vital waterway.
01:07Ukraine achieved this liberation of the Black Sea without having a navy of its own.
01:11Instead, it used drones, both aerial and seaborne, along with missiles to make the sea
01:16too hot to handle for any Russian ship that tries to sail through it. When we say that this
01:21is the largest area that Ukraine has won and Russia has lost in the war so far, we aren't lying.
01:26The Black Sea is massive, measuring about 422,000 square kilometers if we don't include the smaller
01:32Sea of Azov that is connected to the Black Sea. We could include the Sea of Azov. Russia is doing
01:37no better there, and that would give Ukraine a total of 461,000 square kilometers of water that has
01:43been taken away from Russia in its dreaded fleet. But we know what you're thinking, the Black Sea
01:47isn't land. You are right, obviously, but Ukraine taking control over this waterway is massive
01:52because the Black Sea is as important to Russia, both offensively and defensively,
01:57as any territory that it currently holds inside Ukraine. For decades, and long before it invaded
02:03Ukraine, Russia has been involved in conflicts over the Black Sea. Chatham House says that Russia
02:08maintained a policy of managed instability in the sea through both covert and overt actions,
02:14allowing it to act as an arbiter for conflict resolution in the Black Sea as a result.
02:18Through that positioning, combined with the illegal annexation of Crimea,
02:22Russia was able to justify building up the Black Sea fleet in the Black Sea.
02:26Then in February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, and just like that, we saw what Russia was really
02:31trying to do with its manipulative Black Sea diplomacy. The Black Sea became a tool for the
02:36invasion. Economically, Russia knew that Ukraine uses the Black Sea to export grain.
02:42The breadbasket of Europe made over $27 billion from its agricultural exports,
02:48much of which sailed through the Black Sea in the year before that Putin launched his invasion.
02:52Russia tried to put a stop to that early on. When Putin faced pressure, he signed the Black Sea
02:57Grain Initiative to allow Ukrainian vessels through, only to withdraw in July 2023.
03:02The Center for Strategic and International Studies said in September 2023 that Russia had stolen almost
03:086 million tons of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea by that point already. The strategy was clear.
03:14Use the Black Sea to starve Ukraine of the economic resources it needed to defend itself against Russia.
03:20The Black Sea fleet was supposed to play a massive role in this plan, taking advantage of the fact that
03:25Ukraine doesn't have a traditional navy, and certainly has no fleet of warships of its own, to fight back.
03:30Of course, stopping the grain wasn't the only reason Russia wanted to control the Black Sea.
03:34With that sea came the ability to transport troops and equipment from Crimea into Ukraine.
03:40Russia would be able to use its warships to unleash missiles against Ukraine's cities and military
03:45infrastructure. It didn't matter that the Black Sea fleet was isolated or that Turkey had closed the
03:50straits feeding into the Black Sea to all warships from every country in the wake of Putin's invasion.
03:55Russia wouldn't need any more than what it had. Its warships and submarines would subjugate Ukraine,
04:01and its cargo and landing ships would keep landing supplies onto the Ukrainian mainland.
04:05Then, on April 14, 2022, everything changed. Ukraine used Neptune missiles to hit the Moskva,
04:13which was the crown jewel of the Black Sea fleet. And suddenly, from the depths of despair,
04:17a country that had no navy instead had a new strategy that it could use to shatter the Black Sea
04:22fleet
04:23and achieve the total victory that Zelensky says has now been achieved.
04:27In his telegram declaration of Black Sea victory, Zelensky lauded Ukraine's navy along with its defense
04:33and security forces, telling Russia that the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov will definitely not be a
04:38place of peace for Russia. That's an understatement that doesn't tell the full story of how comprehensively
04:44Ukraine has defeated Russia in this vital waterway. After the attack on the Moskva, the gloves were off,
04:50and Ukraine started targeting any warship in the Black Sea fleet that came within its range.
04:54More missiles were deployed, sometimes of Ukraine's making, and sometimes provided by Western allies.
05:00Over time, Ukraine developed aerial drones large and powerful enough to sink ships.
05:05It created maritime drones that could patrol the Black Sea unmanned and ready to launch kamikaze
05:10strikes against Russian warships that had never needed to defend themselves against these types of
05:15threats before. Over the next two years, following the crippling of the Moskva, Ukraine struck over and
05:21over again. By the midpoint of 2024, Ukraine had managed to strike and disable 26 ships, which were
05:28part of the Black Sea fleet, accounting for about a third of the entire fleet. Innovations such as the
05:33Magura V-5 maritime drone, which could deliver several hundred kilograms of explosives to Russian ships,
05:39began to dominate. In the spring of 2024, the UK's Ministry of Defense felt confident enough to call
05:44the Black Sea fleet functionally inactive as Ukraine's drones and missiles dominated. The fleet
05:50was forced to withdraw from its main base in Crimea's Sevastopol in a desperate attempt to stay out of
05:55Ukraine's range. Putin tried to distort reality. He used military parades and propaganda to hide the
06:02devastating loss that Russia had experienced in the Black Sea. All as he desperately attempted to find
06:08some way to wrest back the control that he needed to continue using the sea, both to assault Ukraine
06:13and protect Crimea. But it was all for naught. Ukraine has scored the victory in the Black Sea,
06:18and the numbers say it all. There are a lot more than 26 ships that Ukraine can now count as
06:23victims
06:23of its brilliant Black Sea strategy. According to United24 media, Ukraine now claims to have struck
06:2912 of Russia's main combat ships in the Black Sea, with 4 of those ships being destroyed and a further
06:348 suffering damage that likely takes them out of commission. Ukraine has also targeted Russia's
06:39landing ships with 25 total strikes, leading to 15 destroyed vessels and another 10 that have been
06:45damaged. Auxiliary vessels which provide support to other ships have also been targeted, 12 strikes
06:51total, with 3 destroyed and 9 damaged. This is the first time that Ukraine has provided clear numbers
06:56for its devastating Black Sea campaign, and the sheer scale of these attacks is the reason why Ukraine
07:02can claim victory. The Black Sea fleet hasn't been obliterated, but every time a Russian ship sails,
07:09Ukraine's drones and missiles are waiting. And with Russia unable to replenish its fleet due to Turkey
07:14closing off the straits that lead into the Black Sea, Putin has been forced into an unimaginable
07:19position. A country with no navy has forced him to stop using the Black Sea fleet entirely. That means the
07:25balance in the Black Sea has completely changed in Ukraine's favour, and that has implications for
07:30Russia's military and Putin's hold over illegally annexed Crimea. The numbers are impressive, of course,
07:35but the most important aspect of Ukraine's Black Sea campaign is that it opens the door for the
07:40de-Russification of Crimea. That is Ukraine's end goal. If Russia loses Crimea, the entire invasion
07:47is a bust. However, before we dig deeper into the changing Black Sea dynamics and what they really mean,
07:53this is a reminder that you are watching the military show. Are you getting insight from this
07:57video? Great! Remember to subscribe to the channel and hit the notification bell to see what we have
08:02coming next. It is important to point out that Russia, though defeated in the Black Sea, still very
08:07much exists within the waterway. As the Carnegie Endowment points out, Putin's arrogance leads him
08:12to believe that Russia's Black Sea situation is a temporary setback, rather than a permanent fixture
08:17of the Ukraine war. Perhaps he thinks that Russia will magically start destroying the manufacturing
08:22core inside Ukraine that produces the missiles and drones that enable Ukraine's strategy. Over four
08:28years of fighting hasn't done that, but Putin is nothing if not delusional in his hope for a Russian
08:32victory. Still, there are Black Sea fleet ships that haven't been sunk or damaged, so Ukraine can't
08:37afford to take its eyes off the ball. None of that means the balance hasn't shifted completely in Ukraine's
08:43favor. And we can see that in how Russia is treating its Black Sea fleet right now. In a June
08:4826 report,
08:49Metzer revealed that the Black Sea fleet isn't conducting most of the functions that it's supposed
08:53to be used for. Russia's naval aviation is doing them instead, making the warships practically useless.
08:59Even launching missiles at Ukraine seems to be beyond Russia's ships. A July 5 article in the New
09:04Voice of Ukraine points out that Russia is still using its ships to launch caliber cruise missiles.
09:09However, those ships aren't heading out into the Black Sea to launch. They're staying in their home
09:13ports, desperately hoping that Ukraine won't launch counter-attacks against them while they're
09:18stationary. It's the only option that the fleet has. Traveling into the Black Sea means the ships
09:23could fire from closer range, raising the number of targets they could aim at. But Russia can't take
09:27the risk. Any ship that sails becomes a target in its own right. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy,
09:33Dmitry Pletinchuk, outlines Russia's Black Sea fleet situation.
09:37The occupier does not retain any units at sea, neither in the Azov Sea nor in the Black Sea.
09:42In fact, for the last few months it's become some kind of luxury to venture out to sea,
09:46Pletinchuk says. It's a luxury that Putin can't afford, especially when he knows that he could be
09:51sacrificing multi-million dollar warships that are getting hit by drones that cost a few thousand
09:55dollars to make. Just a month or two before these revelations, United 24 media reported on another
10:01interesting Black Sea Fleet decision that Putin has made. The outlet reports that Russia is so
10:06frustrated at losing warships that it's started to reassign sailors to drone units. That's according
10:12to Ukrainian partisan group Artesh, which claims that Russian High Command has decided that sailors
10:17would be better used as drone operators than they would be doing the job they've spent years training to
10:21do. That tells you everything that you need to know about Russia's Black Sea situation.
10:26Sailors aren't sailing anymore. Even the ships that Russia might have risked aren't getting out into
10:30the water because the people who are supposed to sail them are too busy trying to figure out how drones
10:35work. That is victory for Ukraine. Russia is now so desperate to ensure its useless sailors are doing
10:41something that it's actively making the Black Sea Fleet even more useless by reassigning them.
10:46No place of peace for Russia indeed. But as devastating as losing the Black Sea to Ukraine is for Putin,
10:52especially after he invested so much into turning Russia into the key influence in the sea,
10:57the loss itself pales in comparison to what the loss means for the future. Crimea is in serious trouble.
11:04And Russia can no longer rely on the Black Sea Fleet to provide protection. In 2026, Putin is being forced
11:10to come to grips with the fact that Crimea has become a massive liability for Russia. It wasn't
11:15supposed to be this way. Just like the Black Sea, Crimea was supposed to be an asset, part of the
11:20supply chain that ran from Russia through the Crimean Peninsula into the Black Sea and then onto the
11:25Ukrainian mainland. From Crimea, Russia could launch missiles, drones, and glide bombs all backed by the
11:30Black Sea Fleet, preventing any sort of reprisal from Ukraine. Of course, we know now that it hasn't
11:36worked out that way. The Black Sea Fleet's demise has set the stage for the isolation of Crimea that
11:41we've been seeing throughout much of 2026. Now, a lot has been made of Ukraine's campaign against
11:46the logistical arteries that feed in and out of Crimea. Rightfully so. That campaign, which has
11:52seen Ukraine take out bridges and destroy untold hundreds of supply and fuel trucks destined for
11:56Crimea, has played a massive role in the isolation campaign that is gradually wresting Crimea out of
12:01Putin's grasp. The brilliant logistical squeeze that Ukraine is applying has turned the R280 highway that
12:07connects Crimea to Russia and southern Ukraine into a highway from hell, filled with burning
12:13vehicles that have been taken out by Ukraine's middle strike drones. Huge swathes of Crimea have
12:18been left without electricity as the same drones strike power stations and substations. And Crimea's
12:24air defenses are in shambles, as Ukraine's drones target them too. But make no mistake about it,
12:29the loss of the Black Sea is as important as that logistical campaign. In some ways, one feeds into
12:35another. In June, Ukraine unleashed a devastating attack on both sides of the Kerch bridge that
12:41connects Crimea to the Russian mainland. That attack included strikes against ferries that Russia has
12:46been using to shuttle supplies through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. And those strikes wouldn't
12:50have been possible if the Black Sea fleet hadn't been taken out of commission. More of Russia's logistical
12:56network was destroyed. But beyond that, the loss of the Black Sea has both practical and symbolic
13:01importance. On the practical level, Russia tries to keep air defenses on the various islets, spits,
13:07and sometimes even oil infrastructure that's in the Black Sea. Those defenses need maintenance,
13:11and Russia needs its ships to send engineers to them. That isn't happening as much anymore.
13:16Any ship that sails is in danger. Russia also can't use its ships to launch missiles, as we've already
13:21established, or to serve as roving air defense platforms to protect Crimea. Symbolically, Russia has
13:27basically lost the port city of Sevastopol, at least in the sense of its serving as the traditional
13:33headquarters of the Black Sea fleet. That loss is a shock to any claim that Putin makes that Russia is
13:38in full control of Crimea. It can't be. The port city that is supposed to be vital to Russia's plans
13:43for Ukraine can't even be used for its intended purpose anymore. The loss of the Black Sea fleet
13:49isn't just about the Black Sea. Crimea is incredibly vulnerable now that Russian warships don't sail.
13:55Ukraine has been clinical in taking advantage of this fact, and it's now working to make life
14:00untenable for the occupiers who are on the Crimean Peninsula. Whatever way of life those occupiers
14:05once knew is rapidly breaking down. Fuel shortages and repeated blackouts afflict those living in
14:11Crimea, and there seems to be no end in sight. The Moscow Times spoke to one occupier named Mikhail,
14:17who said, There's no gasoline here. The children constantly hear explosions, and electricity and water
14:23a ration. I don't know when this will end. I don't want to rely on trains either. They're either
14:27cancelled or rescheduled. It's better to have a supply of gasoline. Here, unlike in Sevastopol,
14:33you can't buy gasoline. Not even in theory. Nothing is working in Crimea anymore, and that's all
14:38according to Ukraine's plan. There are reports of food shortages in Crimea, with staples like cereal,
14:43flour, and sugar becoming harder to find on grocery store shelves. Crimea's tourist season has taken a
14:49massive hit. That's no surprise. Sun, sea, sand, no gasoline, is how Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty
14:55puts it, as Crimea loses a massive chunk of its tourist revenue due to people not wanting to travel
15:01to the peninsula that has become an active war zone, even though no Ukrainian soldiers have landed.
15:06They haven't needed to. Drones are doing the damage. All of this started with the collapse of
15:10the Black Sea Fleet, which opened the door for Ukraine to focus on strikes inside Crimea,
15:14Crimea, along with the logistical lockdown campaign that is now cutting Crimea off from Russia and
15:19occupied Ukraine. And if all of this isn't enough to convince you that Ukraine's strategy of making
15:24Crimea uninhabitable is working, then you don't need to listen to us. Instead, look at what Russia is
15:29doing. In a July 3rd report, Euromiden Press revealed that Artesh is claiming that Russian officials
15:35in the Crimean cities of Kerch and Feodosia have received orders to pack up all official documents and
15:41equipment so they can be evacuated from the peninsula. This wasn't a case of those officials having a few
15:46weeks to get the job done. They were given a deadline of July 3rd, meaning the documents and
15:50equipment are already gone, assuming everything has gone to Russia's plan. Russia is running scared.
15:56The Black Sea is lost. Crimea is next, as the Ukrainian strikes keep on coming. A peninsula that was
16:03supposed to allow Putin to form a permanent base to project power over the Black Sea has instead become
16:08a target following the failure of the very fleet that should have projected that power. None of
16:12this would be happening if Russia held the Black Sea. But it doesn't. Zelensky is right. Russia has
16:18lost what may be the most important area in the entire Ukraine war so far. And soon, an even more
16:23important piece of territory will fall like a domino. And by the way, it's not just documents and equipment
16:29that are being evacuated from Crimea. Occupiers are trying to get out in droves as queues on the
16:34Kerch Bridge stretch for over a dozen kilometers. We break down what this means and why it matters
16:39in our video, so check it out if you want more insight into what Russia's loss in the Black Sea
16:43really means. And if you enjoyed this video, remember to hit subscribe and enable notifications
16:48so you can see more of our analysis of the downfall of Putin's grand Crimean vision.
Comments