The Real Reason Russia’s Ruling Class Is Struggling to Stop the War

Name: The Real Reason Russia’s Ruling Class Is Struggling to Stop the War
Uploaded: 2026-08-22T12:07:33+00:00
Duration: 28 min 5 s
Channel: Elvira Bary

00:00Russia's war in Ukraine is damaging the country in almost every possible way.

00:06It is burning through men, money, equipment, infrastructure, labor, markets,

00:12and the last remains of normal life. It has made Russia more dependent on China,

00:19more isolated from Europe, more militarized, more corrupt, and more afraid of its own future.

00:26So the obvious question is why don't the people at the top stop it? They are not stupid. Many of

00:35them

00:35understand perfectly well that this war has not made Russia stronger. It has made their own lives

00:42more dangerous, their foreign assets more vulnerable, their children's future more complicated,

00:48and their escape routes narrower. And yet they keep going along with it.

00:54Because for Russia's ruling class, the war is a disaster, but peace could become an audit.

01:03The moment the war stops, someone will have to explain where the money went,

01:08why the army was so badly prepared, why hundreds of thousands of men were wasted,

01:13why Russia became poorer and weaker, and who should be punished for the failure.

01:18And in Putin's system, punishment is never abstract. This is why Russia's elites are trapped inside the

01:27machine they built. They know the war is dangerous, but stopping it means entering a new political

01:34reality where old protections may fail, new clans may rise, and the next ruler may need scapegoats.

01:43I am Elvira Berry, a writer born in the Soviet Union, and today I want to show you who really

01:49runs Russia,

01:50what they are afraid of, and why their fear helps keep the war alive.

01:56Here is our roadmap. The real rulers, who actually holds power in Russia, beneath the formal offices and

02:05official titles. Patriotism as property, why the elites love Russia often means love of privilege,

02:13protection, and access to state money. The exit class, why their children, savings, medical care,

02:21and dream lives usually point abroad. The trap they built. Why the same people who understand the war

02:29is damaging Russia still do not dare to stop it. What will they do? Who may inherit power after Putin?

02:37Why the elites will have to choose sides and why the next ruler will almost certainly turn against

02:45some of the clans that keep the system alive. Before we begin, please support the channel by

02:52subscribing, liking this video, and following the show on Spotify. It helps more people find these

02:58conversations. And if you want to support this work more directly, you can join the think tank,

03:04use superfinks, buy me a coffee, or donate through PayPal. All the links are in the description.

03:12Let's begin with the people who actually hold power in Russia. Not because the law protects them,

03:17but because someone above them does. The real rulers

03:25A normal country is run by institutions, ministries, courts, law enforcement, and local administrations.

03:32The person matters, but the office matters more. In Russia, the office is only the costume. The real power

03:42sits underneath it, with people who are part of the informal network that controls money, violence,

03:49paperwork, and access. That is the ruling class. It includes ministries, governors, generals, judges,

03:56officers, security officers, state bankers, defense contractors, and the businessmen attached to them.

04:04Some are visible. Some stay in the shadows. But they all understand the same basic rule. The highest

04:12force is not law, but protection. At the lower levels, the Russian state worships paperwork. A school

04:21principal, a doctor, a local clerk, a police investigator, all of them are buried under endless reports they need to

04:29file.

04:30They are terrified of missing the right line. But the higher you climb, the less paperwork matters.

04:37A powerful person can ban a rule, ignore it, or have a new rule written for him. The same law

04:45that

04:45crushes an ordinary citizen can suddenly become invisible around someone with the right patron.

04:53This creates the strange Russian double world. Endless paperwork below, selective lawlessness above.

05:01This selective protection applies to the person as long as they remain useful to their seniors. The

05:08Russian state looks modern on the surface, but underneath it runs on feudal logic.

05:14Power depends on protection. A judge, a governor, or a security officer is never simply doing their job.

05:22Each of them sits inside a feeding chain. Someone helped them rise and now expects loyalty, money,

05:31favors, silence, or services in return. This is why corruption in Russia is a social fabric.

05:38A person receives an office that gives access to money. They can keep some of that money after they send

05:45a certain amount upward. In exchange, they receive protection. If they are attacked, someone can make the

05:53problem disappear. If they are useful, they may be allowed to become rich far beyond their salary. But if their

06:02protector weakens, the same files that were ignored for years can suddenly become a criminal case.

06:08Take Yelena Kakhaleva, the former judge from Krasnodar, whom Russian media nicknamed the Golden Judge.

06:18Her story became famous in 2017 after videos appeared from her daughter's lavish wedding.

06:24There were pop stars, expensive decorations, and the kind of luxury that looks strange when the mother of the

06:33bride is a regional judge. In a normal system, that would be the beginning of a serious investigation.

06:41In Russia, it was mostly the beginning of a media scandal. For years, Kakhaleva was not just a judge.

06:49She was part of a local judicial network. According to Russian reporting, she and her sister were connected

06:56to powerful figures in the Krasnodar court system and allegedly enjoyed the protection of senior judicial

07:03officials. That is the point. A judge in this system does not simply interpret the law. A judge

07:11can become a gatekeeper for property, business disputes, land, taxes, and criminal cases.

07:18Then the protection stopped working. The same state that had tolerated the obvious signs of wealth

07:24for years suddenly discovered everything. Missed workdays, allegedly false records, unexplained assets,

07:34land schemes, relatives, companies, properties. In 2020, Kakhaleva lost her judicial status.

07:40In 2022, she was arrested in absentia. In 2025, she was detained in Baku while reportedly

07:48trying to fly to Dubai. Azerbaijan later refused to extradite her and by 2026, she was reported to be

07:54living in Nbilisi. Meanwhile, Russian courts moved against the family assets. In 2026, property connected to

08:03Hakhaleva, her relatives and affiliated people was ordered into state ownership. Dozens of land plots,

08:11nearly a hundred buildings and premises, company shares, and millions of rubles. What happened to

08:19Hakhaleva means one thing? Her clan was pushed away from its feeding source. Maybe she quarreled with

08:28someone too important. Maybe her patron weakened. Maybe someone stronger wanted her position,

08:34her assets, or both. In the end, the reason matters less than the mechanism. Her protection failed.

08:44This is how the entire upper layer in Russia lives. The law does not truly protect their

08:49lives or property. But the same law does not protect ordinary people from them either. Law is not a shield,

08:57it is a ritual of obedience, mostly required from those below. So, what we see here is not simply

09:05corruption. It is a social parasite whose purpose is to extract state resources for itself. Such a parasite

09:14needs the host to stay alive, but it also needs the host to remain weak enough that it won't be

09:21removed.

09:22This is not uniquely Russian. Rent extraction was practiced by every colonial power from Spain to Britain.

09:29The difference is that other European empires usually directed this machine outward toward conquered

09:38peoples. The Russian elite has spent centuries colonizing its own population and calling it

09:44patriotism. Any real change threatens the feeding system of Russia's golden million. For them, reform is not

09:53an abstract political risk. It is an existential threat. They have very few skills outside this

10:01environment. A judge like Kakhaleva cannot simply move abroad and become a successful judge somewhere

10:07else. Her value existed inside one very specific system – informal protection, selective law, and access to

10:16state resources. The same is true for much of Putin's elite. They can function only under these conditions,

10:22so they will defend these conditions. And that defense is what they call love for the motherland.

10:31Patriotism as property

10:35Is Russian elite patriotic? In a sense, it is. When these people say they love Russia, they do not mean

10:44the

10:44country as a whole, with its culture and history or fellow ordinary Russians. What they truly love is the

10:51upper layer of Russia – the place where their privilege and wealth live. The easiest mistake is to

10:58imagine these people as hypocrites who secretly know the truth but keep telling lies in public. Some do,

11:04but many have trained themselves into a more comfortable belief. They believe that Russia equals their own

11:13position inside Russia. If their power grows, Russia is strong. If they get a bigger budget, Russia is

11:20defended. If their enemies are crushed, Russia is safe. This is how a ruling class slowly appoints itself

11:29as the country. Look at the Russian defense sector. Publicly, it speaks the language of sacrifice,

11:36patriotism and service. In reality, it became one of the richest feeding zones in the entire state.

11:43Take Timur Ivanov, the former deputy defense minister. He was responsible for military construction

11:50projects, the bones of the military machine. In 2024, Ivanov was arrested. In 2025, he was sentenced to 13 years

12:00in a

12:01penal colony on corruption charges, taking bribes and embezzlement. One bribe amounted to 1 billion Russian

12:08rubles – about 15 million dollars. Then came others. In 2026, Ruslan Sadikov, another former deputy defense

12:18minister and a long-time associate of Sergei Shayku was charged with embezzlement, money laundering and

12:25bribe taking. All this happened around the ministry responsible for a war that was killing Russian

12:32soldiers by the thousands. Every single day. From the point of view of a normal citizen, stealing from

12:39defense spending during a war is treason. But from inside the Russian elite, it looks like routine

12:47distribution. The soldiers dying in the trenches are not part of the Russia they love, so they have

12:54no reason to care. But what about their personal safety? By stealing from Russia's defense, aren't they

13:01putting themselves and their families in danger? The Russian elites don't see it this way. To them, Russia is

13:09not home, but rather a place where they make money. Once it becomes unprofitable or too dangerous,

13:17they are ready to move out. The exit class

13:23The Russian elite makes money in Russia in order to build a better future outside Russia. They want

13:29their savings, medical care, children's education, and retirement to be somewhere safer. This is an old

13:37habit of authoritarian elites. It is not uniquely Russian. Upper classes in corrupt authoritarian

13:43systems treat their own country as a source of income, not as a place where they plan to grow old.

13:50Before the full-scale invasion, the system worked. Earn in Russia, spend in the West, curse Western

13:56decadence on TV than by real estate in countries where courts work, streets are safe, and officials

14:03cannot take everything away with one phone call. After February 2022, the old escape routes became

14:11harder. Europe and the United States sanctioned many oligarchs, officials, their families, and

14:19companies connected to the Kremlin. Investigative journalists working with OCCRP built the Russian

14:26asset tracker and documented billions of dollars in foreign assets linked to Russian oligarchs and

14:33senior figures close to Putin. But the old dream did not disappear. It just changed direction.

14:41In March 2022, rich Russians started to move wealth from Europe to Dubai to shield assets from tightening

14:50Western sanctions. Many bought properties in Dubai and Istanbul, some for investment, some because they

14:57needed a home. That phrase matters. Needed a home. Many of these people had long stopped seeing Russia as

15:05their home. It was a place where they waited for an opening to move to a better place. A good

15:12example is

15:13Anatoliy Chubais, one of the key reformers of the 1990s. A man who helped shape post-Soviet privatization and

15:22later held senior roles under Putin. In March 2022, he resigned as Putin's special representative and left

15:30Russia. Sources told Reuters he left because of the war in Ukraine and did not intend to return. That is,

15:38their exit mentality in its purest form. A man who knew the system from the inside looked at the invasion

15:45and chose the door. Most insiders did not because leaving is not simple when your money and status

15:53are still tied to the machine. This is where the moral excuse begins. The official tells themselves,

16:00I am not stealing. I am protecting my family. I am preparing for the day when everything collapses.

16:07If I do not take this money, someone else will. And anyway, nothing good would be built with it.

16:14Once a person thinks this way, their country becomes a mere raw material,

16:19something to be taken before the next predator gets there first.

16:23The Trap They Built

16:27The Russian elite does not stop the war because every option is dangerous.

16:32Continuing the war is destructive, but stopping the war is unpredictable. And for people who live by

16:39protection, predictability matters most. As long as the war continues, they can keep following the

16:46rules they already know, obey Putin, repeat the slogans, and keep the budgets flowing. If the war stops badly,

16:55everything becomes uncertain. Who will be blamed? Who will be sacrificed and lose all their assets?

17:03Inside this system, peace is not automatically safe. It can mean audit, redistribution,

17:11and the search for scapegoats. This is why so many insiders prefer waiting. Waiting is the oldest Russian

17:19political strategy. Do not move first, but watch the top. The Prigozhin mutiny showed how the elite would

17:26react when violence turned inward. In June 2023, Evgeny Prigozhin and Wagner fighters crossed from

17:34Ukraine into Russia, seized the sovereign military hub of Rostov-on-Don and moved toward Moscow.

17:41For a short time, the world watched an armed column roll through Russia, while the system looked stunned.

17:49Reuters later reported that Russian elites trembled during the rebellion and

17:53that some private jets left Moscow. When real danger came close, their instinct was not to defend the

18:02state, but to find the exit. Russia's ruling class was absolutely terrified by the scenario of Putin

18:09falling. They know they are hated by many inside Russia. Liberals hate them for enabling the war.

18:17The patriots hate them for corruption and incompetence. Rival clans want their assets.

18:23Ordinary people may someday ask why their sons died while officials bought villas. So they cling to

18:32Putin because he is their ultimate protector. Many of them probably understand that the war has damaged

18:38Russia for decades. They understand that China is not a generous friend. But understanding is not

18:46the same as acting. To act, they would need trust. They do not trust one another. They would need

18:54courage. But the system has selected them for obedience. They would need an idea of Russia after

19:01Putin. They have none. So they continue doing their thing. Keeping a low profile, building up their private

19:09wealth and waiting for someone else to make their first mistake. What will they do?

19:19Of course, not everyone can immigrate. If it were that simple, the war could be ended in a very elegant

19:25way.

19:26Give Russia's entire ruling class residence permits. Let them move their money abroad and make sure they

19:34never do anything more dangerous than gardening, shopping and taking yard trips.

19:40One million rich Russians scattered across foreign countries would not be much of a threat.

19:46Russia, meanwhile, would finally have space for democratic reforms. Beautiful idea.

19:53Not very realistic. Someone will still inherit the Russian throne. Everyone inside the system

20:01understands that Putin is not eternal and the end of his rule is not turning out the way the Russian

20:08elite once imagined. They expected a managed transition, preserved fortunes, negotiated immunity and

20:15maybe a polite historical portrait somewhere in a state museum. Instead, they are looking at war sanctions,

20:24criminal liability, frozen assets, angry soldiers, angry liberals, angry patriots and a country full of

20:32people looking for someone to blame. And someone will have to be blamed. That is the first job of the

20:40next

20:40ruler. Whoever comes after Putin will not simply sit down in the Kremlin and continue business as usual.

20:47He will need to build his own coalition. That means attacking some existing clans, sacrificing some

20:55figures, redistributing property and presenting himself as the man who has come to clean up the mess.

21:02For many people in the elite, especially those under personal sanctions, this creates a serious problem.

21:10They cannot simply leave and pretend nothing happened. They are stuck inside the system they helped build,

21:17so now they have to make the right bet. They have to guess who has a real chance to take

21:25power after

21:25Putin and attach themselves early enough to survive. Sociologist Konstantin Gaze has named three realistic contenders.

21:34Moscow Mayor Sergei Sabanin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Sergei Kiryenko, the first deputy head of the

21:42presidential administration. This does not mean one of them will definitely become president. Russian succession is not an election

21:51campaign. It is a struggle among clans, security services, bureaucratic groups, financial interests and people

21:59who know too much about one another. But these three names make sense because the next ruler will need a

22:07very specific

22:08package of qualities. He must look respectable enough for negotiations. He must not be too old. He must have a

22:17reputation as someone who can solve practical problems. And he must not be so publicly stained by the worst crimes

22:25of the war that no one in the West can talk to him. Of course, everyone in the system is

22:31stained by

22:32something. At the very least, by corruption. But by the standards of the current rationality, corruption is

22:43almost a parking ticket. Sabanin has spent years building the image of the mayor who turned Moscow into a

22:50showcase. Clean streets, parks, metro stations, digital services, polished sidewalks. The capital as a model

22:59of administrative competence. Mishustin has a different image. He is not charismatic and that may be his

23:06advantage. He looks like a severe but not insane manager. A man who does not write historical

23:14manifestos, does not scream about sacred wars, and does not seem personally hungry for apocalypse. He is

23:23also prime minister, which matters. If the president leaves suddenly, power formally moves to him, at least

23:31temporarily. Kiryanka is the most flexible of the three. His main talent is adaptation. In the 1990s,

23:40he was a young technocrat. Under Putin, he became a manager of domestic politics, elections, propaganda,

23:47occupied territories, youth projects, and ideological control. Kiryanka can be almost anything the moment

23:54requires. Everyone else has problems. Some potential figures have no real resources. Some have no political

24:03weight. Some are too toxic. Some look impossible to negotiate with. Some would terrify too many clans at

24:11once. And the next ruler will need to keep the elites from tearing each other apart. For now, the most

24:19serious

24:20contenders try not to shine too brightly. In Russia, becoming too visible is dangerous. If Putin sees you

24:29building popularity, he may read it as a threat. He does not need independent political figures around

24:36him. He needs loyal executors who appear to have no ambitions of their own. Of course, that appearance is

24:44false. But it must be maintained. So the useful candidates stay in the shade. They do their jobs,

24:53avoid unnecessary drama, appear loyal, and wait. This invisibility is also an asset. It allows them to

25:02see through the war without becoming the face of it. But the Kremlin may try to close that escape route.

25:09It may

25:10try to smear potential successors with the war deliberately to make sure they have no future

25:16outside victory. If they are implicated deeply enough, they cannot present themselves as clean managers.

25:22Their only road then leads forward with the regime because the alternative is their core tool. For the

25:30rest of the elite, the people who are not serious contenders for the throne, the task is different. They have

25:35to watch the signals. Who is rising? Who is being protected? Who is being weakened? Which family is

25:44suddenly attacked? Which governor is praised? Which security group receives new powers? Which old friend

25:53disappears from television? They are not looking for justice. They are looking for weather. And right now,

26:00the weather has changed. The elite has begun to understand that there will be no simple return to

26:06the old life. The comfortable version of Putinism, still in Russia, vacation in Europe, send children

26:12to Western schools, praise patriotism on television, buy real estate abroad, is gone. Something will have to

26:19change. If it does not, their live scripts may end the way the live scripts of the Russian upper class

26:26ended in

26:27the early 20th century. For centuries, everything looked permanent. Then the ground moved. Before you go,

26:37I want to ask you something personal. Have you ever known someone who spoke very passionately about loyalty,

26:45sacrifice, patriotism, family duty, company values, or some noble cause, but when the Mormon came to pay a

26:54real price? They quietly protected themselves first. If this video helps you understand how Russia's ruling

27:02class works, please like the video and subscribe. Share it with one person who still believes Russia is

27:09ruled by true patriots. And if you want to support this channel directly, you can join my think tank,

27:17leave us super thanks, support through PayPal, or tap Hype Points to help this episode travel further.

27:25For those listening on Spotify, follow the show so you don't miss the next one.

27:31Thank you for watching. See you next time.

27:48See you next time.

27:49See you next time.

27:52See you next time.

27:58You

The Real Reason Russia’s Ruling Class Is Struggling to Stop the War

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